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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Agreeing with @Observant1's comments: Thomas Coutts has been the lead manager on the pure Baillie Gifford international fund, BGETX, since inception. Until 2021, that fund tracked VWIGX extremely closely (see Portfolio Visualizer graph).
    The relative underperformance of Coutt's' fund BGETX since the start of 2021 may be attributed to that fund being "purer" growth than VWIGX. The Vanguard fund gets some "tamer growth" (per Yogi) from the 30% managed by Schroeders. The Schroeders component explains virtually all the difference. This can be inferred from this PortfolioVisualizer graph. It compares (since Jan 2021) BGETX, VWIGX, and SCIEX (pure Schroeders, managed by the same Schroeder managers as on VWIGX).
    In case more evidence is needed, we can compare recent (post Anderson) performance of VWIGX with a pure Anderson fund. Yes, he's still managing an international fund, just not one based in the US. Desjardins Overseas Equity Growth, out of Canada. Anderson's the sole manager, and like VWIGX, this fund has 14% of its equity in the US with the rest outside of the US and Canada.
    https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/fund/portfolio.aspx?t=0P00011073
    In 2022, Anderson's fund ranked at the 100th (Canadian) percentile, losing 33.12% while Coutts' BGETX lost 34.43%. YTD, the former gained 10.47% while the latter gained 11.27%. Hard to tell the two apart. At least from a distance.
    https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/fund/performance.aspx?t=0P00011073
    As others have stated, analysts play a large role.
    Baillie Gifford’s staff turnover is negligible, at around 5% per year. Many analysts come straight from university and stay with Baillie Gifford for their whole career.
    In a recent research note, Winterflood points out that other partners have left without any apparent impact on their funds.
    https://portfolio-adviser.com/will-baillie-gifford-avoid-the-major-transition-pitfalls-as-growth-architect-james-anderson-leaves/
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    I've been planning to liquidate our holding in Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX) and was going to put that money into Artisan International Value (ARTKX), but have discovered it is closed to new investors; bummer!
    What alternatives would you suggest? My priorities:
    1. Long-term, sustained outperformance versus a relevant benchmark
    2. stable management
    3. low fees (expense ratio); no-load
    4. low turnover
    5. available from our Vanguard brokerage account
    6. invests primarily overseas; we already have plenty of US-based investments
    Thanks for any suggestions!
    Randy

    Have you considered Vanguard International Growth?
    1. Top-decile 10 Yr and 15 Yr fund category returns (period ending 03-31-23)
    2. Schroder Investment Management advised since 1981; Baillie Gifford advised since 2003
    3. Expense Ratio: VWILX - 0.34% ($50K min.); VWIGX - 0.45% ($3K min.)
    4. Turnover: 2019 - 13%; 2020 - 20%; 2021 - 25%; 2022 - 15%
    5. Available via Vanguard brokerage
    6. 87% foreign; 13% U.S. (as of 01-31-23)
    Vanguard International Growth is a volatile fund with a standard deviation of 25.16 as of 03-31-23.
    M* classifies the fund as high risk relative to the Foreign Large Growth fund category.
    VWILX performance in 2022 was terrible - it declined 30.79%.
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    I don't think it's any easier today for a fund to corral heads of steer than it was in 2006 :-)
    Good point. You’d need some pretty high boots I suppose. :)
    Casks of single malt wouldn’t appear too hard to store. Price and quality increase with age. For example, a 15-year old tastes better and sells for more than a 10-year.
    I find GLTR interesting. From my reading it’s non-traditional among the precious metals funds in that it uses derivatives rather than physically holding the metals. Also spreads the risk across 4 different precious metals, though predominantly invested in gold.
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    I've been planning to liquidate our holding in Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX) and was going to put that money into Artisan International Value (ARTKX), but have discovered it is closed to new investors; bummer!
    What alternatives would you suggest? My priorities:
    1. Long-term, sustained outperformance versus a relevant benchmark
    2. stable management
    3. low fees (expense ratio); no-load
    4. low turnover
    5. available from our Vanguard brokerage account
    6. invests primarily overseas; we already have plenty of US-based investments
    Thanks for any suggestions!
    Randy
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    Excerpted from a CityWire article published on 04/07/2023.
    "James Velissaris, the founder, former CIO and lead portfolio manager of Infinity Q Capital Management, was sentenced to 15 years in prison and ordered to pay an unspecified amount of restitution by US District Judge Denise Cote on Friday afternoon in Manhattan."
    "Velissaris, 38, of Atlanta, pleaded guilty in November 2022 to one count of securities fraud in a deal with federal prosecutors in the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York that dropped several other felony charges and required him to forfeit $22m. The charges came about as a result of his role in a $1bn fund overvaluation scheme, with federal officials publicly levying their accusations in early 2022."
    Link (paywall)
    I'm glad that Mr. Velissaris received a lengthy prison sentence for the serious crimes he committed.
    Hopefully, this case will deter others in the financial industry from engaging in fraudulent schemes.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Thanks Yogi. Can’t confirm - but I get the impression Forsyth enjoys time away from that duty. It’s a demanding role. Must take a toll on one over time.
    PS - The (alleged) comments Serwer attributes to NYC real estate magnates comparing their professional lives today as existing inside a “fishbowl” or “goat rodeo” are hilarious. :).
    And then there’s Jack Hough: “My car seems to be beating the stock market.” - LOL
    Hough’s whole article is a riot. Worth the price of the publication alone … Well, also somber if you’re in the market for a new car. New car prices are up 21% since September 2020. (Used car prices even more.) “Sub-$20,000 models” are “nearly extinct” - with those priced at under $25,000 “next in line” for extinction.
    Agree with others - it’s an excellent article on International Funds by @LewisBraham. Very extensive and comprehensive look at opportunities in various corners of the international markets and the related trade-offs.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Andy Serwer is a heavy hitter hired by Barron's in January 2023. Since then, he has already done several feature stories, 1 cover story, and, yes, this week is his shot at the Up and Down Wall Street.
    Andy Serwer's Barron's Stories https://www.barrons.com/authors/andy-serwer?mod=article_byline
    Press Release https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/30/2597513/0/en/Andy-Serwer-Joins-Barron-s-as-Editor-at-Large.html
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank, only the precious metal funds may own physical commodities. Most other commodity funds use futures for commodity exposures, and some may be leveraged via futures (i.e. more than 100% exposure).
    My short list included those funds that select 10-15 best trending commodities from a pool of 20-25 commodities. Many other commodity funds may sound general in name but may have heavy concentrations in energy or ags.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/5/23
    Thanks for the links! Will be watching next week’s CPI reporting.
    By the way, treasury yield curve moved up again on Friday. 4 mo T bill peaked at 5.04%. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202304
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    I had a hard time finding one "do eveything fund" Most focus on futures or energy, or follow a broad index, usually overweight energy.
    I looked at most of the Agriculture ETFs and decided that MOO was best diversified stock focused Agriculture ETF. There are many ETFs that buy ag futures but I use DBA.
    XME has 41% steel, 17% Coal 13% Gold 10% diversified mining 9% aluminum 5% Silver and 5% Copper
    RTM is equal weight Basic Materials but has some consumer stocks as well
    GRHAX focuses on Natural resources but depending on the manger's outlook can become heavily invested in certain sectors. Currently 65% in energy mostly oil and gas. I don't think it is available at Fido. There I have some of wife's money in DNLAX, although the portfolio managers changed in 2020. They try to predict what commodity/ economic cycle is coming up an weight accordingly.
    I don't think this is exactly what you are looking for, but I hope it helps.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/5/23
    A large impact on the upcoming March year-over-year CPI value will be the removal of March 2022's 1.34% contribution (287.504/283.716 = 1.013351...). Good-sized drops in YoY CPI are also likely to occur when May and June 2022 drop out, assuming monthly inflation this spring remains subdued:
    May 2022 1.10% (292.296/289.109)
    June 2022 1.37% (296.311/292.296)
    This can be readily observed in the chart @yogibearbull recently linked:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=128qr
    Link to Cleveland Fed's inflation Nowcast:
    https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
    A table of individual months' CPI values, updated each month:
    https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Thanks for commenting @Observant1 - I appreciate links so much more when folks add a personal comment. Generally, the only time I’ll watch a linked video is if the poster has commented on it.
    Benz’s “Buckets” conjure up an image of somebody in a Bonanza - like western walking to and from the well. Prefer “allocation model” myself, although the label doesn’t matter much. In both personal and financial affairs I’m usually better off having a disciplined approach. So I’d be lost without my allocation model written down and securely stored among the digital archives. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on viewpoint) mine is a whole lot more complex than Benz’s. It’s evolved over nearly 25 years in retirement as my knowledge base has grown, opportunities available have multiplied and age has advanced. I’d hate being still crammed into the same “bucket(s)” today as a quarter-century ago.
    Benz is no Einstein, but she appears generally well versed on the fund landscape as one would expect from Morningstar. I think 25-30 years back when I was in the process of ditching the Templeton assigned “advisor” (commanding a 4%+ front load) and developing my own self directed investment approach Benz’s advice would have been both stimulating and helpful. Today, not much. I think she’s appealing mainly to inexperienced investors.
    Some pertinent thoughts / observations:
    - Benz leads off characterizing bonds as a portfolio-wrecking “torpedo” in 2022. An interesting analogy, though I might have said “weighty anchor”. Equities could have have sunk your investment sloop even faster and driven it deeper than bonds last year, depending, of course, on which ones.
    - Benz suggests holding 1-2 years worth of cash reserve to “ride out” rough stretches of the market. Surely this is optimistic. While not one to hold a lot of cash myself, in reading others’ posts over the years it appears that her suggested 1-2 years worth of cash reserve is on the low end. Some well-versed investors here who subscribe to the “rainy day” approach have been known to hold anywhere from 3 to 5 years’ supply of cash to draw on in event of a prolonged bear market - a more realistic time frame. (Either you have religion or you don’t.)
    - Just 3 buckets seems rather basic - actually pretty simplistic.
    - The contents of Benz’s buckets appear to slosh around a bit. She mentions international funds “might be” an asset to include today. OK. Probably good advice. But a staunch “bucketeer” might well adhere to static allocations, periodically rebalancing. Adding / deleting components would appear tantamount to going off the reservation. She suggests some precious metals (now that they’ve appreciated significantly). Consider that there have been periods as brief as 2 or 3 years over which precious metals funds have fallen 50% or more. How many novice investors (to whom she seems to be appealing) would have the staying power to hold on to to an asset like that near the bottom?
    - She’s fond of index funds. If one has a 10-25 year time horizon that’s probably great advice. Over longer periods lower fees should translate into better outcomes. But it’s not that simple. First, today’s investors generally have shorter time horizons / are prone to hold funds for shorter periods than a generation ago. Timing decisions might well impact returns more than fees. Secondly, the advice to invest in indexes ignores the extent to which some of those may have become distorted / overpriced after decades of outperformance. For example, the cap-weighted S&P 500 might not be the best place to invest today. Some knowledgeable investors actually maintain small short positions on it, wagering, in effect, that other market areas will outperform.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    April 7, 2023:

    Banks, private capital, real estate. Summers on collecting arrears from the wealthy.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/5/23
    Upon examination again you are correct, CME indicated 25 bps hike in May.
    Preliminary March CPI data from Kiplinger,
    As for the next CPI report, the March inflation figures are slated for release by the BLS on Wednesday, April 12 at 8:30 am Eastern time. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's "Nowcast" (opens in new tab) predicts headline inflation to increase by 5.2% year-over-year. That would represent a slowdown from the 6% increase in prices seen in the February CPI report. On a monthly basis, March inflation is forecast to rise 0.3%, down from a gain of 0.4% in February.
    https://kiplinger.com/investing/when-is-the-next-cpi-report
    Also read the same data from Reuters. Perhaps this will increase the probability of a small rate hike.
  • T Rowe Price Retirement Income Solutions
    T Rowe Price/TROW has bought the retirement income software firm Retiree Inc. This Software can take into account a variety of household accounts to come up with retirement solutions to meet various goals (optimize income, bequest value, etc). BTW, several firms offer retirement income calculator that may have limited capabilities.
    News: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/03/30/t-rowe-price-to-buy-income-planning-software-maker/
    Websites
    https://www.retireeincome.com/
    https://incomestrategy.com/
    Founders: https://incomestrategy.com/about-us-2/
    Initial Source: Kitces at TwitterLink
  • I bonds and tax refund
    It looks like the instructions are the same, aside from Yogi's edit warning to check a box (either savings or checking) rather than leave it blank.
    Reiterating my prior warning - it looks like refund money that is sent electronically will be applied against your annual $10K limit for buying electronic Series I savings bonds. It won't up your limit to $15K:
    Providing these instructions in the "refund" area on your tax return will direct your refund to the Zero-Percent C of I in your TreasuryDirect account where it will be available to fund the purchase of one or more Treasury securities.
    Same as if the cash had come from your bank.
    If your sole objective is to get cash into Treasury Direct in order to buy savings bonds, you could just transfer $2500 from your bank account now instead of waiting for the $2500 from your tax refund to hit TD. That way, you'll be able to control when you purchase savings bonds (the rates change at the end of this month).
  • I bonds and tax refund
    See https://treasurydirect.gov/research-center/
    "Using Your Tax Refund for TreasuryDirect
    Do you know you can have your tax refund directed to your TreasuryDirect account to use for Treasury security purchases?
    TreasuryDirect offers flexible options for all your security purchases. One option to fund your account is to use your tax refund.
    You can request the IRS or your state tax department to deposit your tax return directly into your TreasuryDirect account where you can use the funds to purchase savings bonds or marketable Treasury securities. All you need to do is provide TreasuryDirect's routing number and your TreasuryDirect account number in the refund instructions on your tax return.
    On your tax return, enter:
    the TreasuryDirect routing number, 051736158, in the “Routing number” field.
    your TreasuryDirect account number in the “Account number” field.
    Savings” as the account type.
    Providing these instructions in the "refund" area on your tax return will direct your refund to the Zero-Percent C of I in your TreasuryDirect account where it will be available to fund the purchase of one or more Treasury securities."
    Edit/Add: Instructions about "Savings" may be important. One year, I forgot to checkmark "Checking" for my bank checking a/c and I got a paper check. The IRS couldn't figure out whether it was checking or savings although I had used that checking account previously.
  • I bonds and tax refund
    Can we assume the instructions for having IRS send your refund to your TD account instead of your Bank account are the same as TD instructions to have employer send in money directly
    "To have your employer send the money
    You will fill out a direct deposit form that needs this information:
    The "receiving bank name": TREASURYDIRECT (all capitals, no space)
    The routing number for TreasuryDirect: 051736158
    Your 10-digit TreasuryDirect account number, no hyphens, with a P at the end
    (Example: A123456789P)
    How much money you want to have your employer send from each paycheck
    Where the form asks if this is a savings account (22) or a checking account (23), you can choose either. That doesn't matter to our system."
    The form 8888 instructions say
    An account can be a checking, savings,
    or other account such as an IRA, HSA,
    Archer MSA, ESA, or TreasuryDirect®
    online account.
    IT would probably work, but I am not sure I want to risk my $2500 refund. Still the form 8888 instructions say if the electronic account rejects your refund, they will issue paper check.
    Anybody tried this?
    I have to file on paper this year so who knows how long it will take for me to find out.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/5/23
    No. CME FedWatch is showing +25 bps only from the current 4.75-5.00% to 5.00-5.25%.