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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Matthews Korea Fund to be reorganized into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312523015201/d445147d497.htm
    497 1 d445147d497.htm FORM 497
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 25, 2023
    TO THE INVESTOR CLASS AND INSTITUTIONAL CLASS PROSPECTUSES
    DATED APRIL 28, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED, AND
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    DATED JULY 29, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED, OF
    MATTHEWS ASIA FUNDS
    For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Korea Fund – Investor Class Shares (MAKOX) and Institutional Class Shares (MIKOX):
    At a meeting held on January 12, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Matthews International Funds, d/b/a Matthews Asia Funds, agreed to consider in early 2023 the conversion (the “Conversion”) of the Matthews Korea Fund (the “Fund”) to a newly created exchange-traded fund (an “ETF”), to be named the Matthews Korea Active ETF (the “Korea ETF”).
    The Korea ETF will be managed in a substantially similar manner as the Fund, with identical investment objectives and fundamental investment policies and substantially similar investment strategies. If approved by the Board, it is anticipated that the Conversion would occur in 2023. By converting the Fund to an ETF, Matthews International Capital Management, LLC (“Matthews”), the Fund’s investment adviser, believes shareholders in the Fund could benefit from lower overall net expenses, additional trading flexibility, increased portfolio holdings transparency and enhanced tax efficiency.
    Matthews is communicating the proposed plans prior to formal Board approval in order to provide ample notice of the planned Conversion and allow shareholders time to engage with Matthews on the implications of the proposed transaction, including the need to have a brokerage account before the Conversion occurs.
    The Conversion would consist of (1) the transfer of all or substantially all of the Fund’s assets, subject to its liabilities, to the Korea ETF for shares of the Korea ETF; and (2) the distribution of the Korea ETF shares to Fund shareholders, after which the Fund will no longer exist. It is anticipated that if approved by the Board, the Conversion will not require shareholder approval.
    When the Conversion is considered, the Board, including the Trustees not deemed to be “interested persons” of the Fund pursuant to Section 2(a)(19) of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, will need to determine that it is in the best interests of the Fund and that the Conversion would not dilute the interests of the Fund’s shareholders.
    The Korea ETF has not commenced investment operations, and it is not expected to have shareholders before the Conversion. If the Conversion is approved by the Board, existing shareholders of the Fund will receive a combined information statement/prospectus describing in detail both the Conversion and the Korea ETF, and summarizing the Board’s considerations in approving the Conversion.
    It is anticipated that the Conversion will qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes and that shareholders will not recognize any gain or loss in connection with the Conversion, except to the extent that they receive cash in lieu of fractional shares of the Korea ETF.
    In connection with the proposed Conversion, an information statement/prospectus that will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn, and it will not be distributed to shareholders unless and until it is declared effective by the SEC. Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when they become available because they will contain important information about the Conversion. After they are filed, free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s web site at www.sec.gov. These materials also will be available at www.matthewsasia.com and a paper copy can be obtained at no charge by calling 800-789-ASIA (2742).
    This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. No offer of securities will be made except pursuant to a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    But I'm married to TRP in the IRA

    @Crash, I'm curious and you don't need to answer, but what makes you married to TRP in an IRA? If your IRA is with TRP, they offer a selection mutual funds from other places too, don't they?
    I have both T-IRA and a brokerage with TRP. And there's a wall between them, of course. My understanding is that in the IRA, only TRP funds are available. I tried to move some money into one of their ETFs and it did not want to let me do even THAT...
    In the brokerage there are a million prospects, but to invest in a non-TRP fund, you have to plunk down $5k all at once. (Sucks big piles of feces.)
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    @MikeM - Giroux
    Photo of current Barrons ”Brain Trust” at work making 2023 predictions (Barron’s Cover / January 23, 2023). The numbers I earlier cited for Giroux’s 2022 picks appeared in the January 16 issue. Abby Joseph Cohen and David Giroux (to her right) visible on right edge of photo. Appears to be Henry Ellenbogen with back to camera. His picks were even worse than Giroux’s.
    image
  • Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    @lynnbolin2021 - I noticed that DIVO was mentioned in your article. Do you have an opinion on it's counterpart IDVO? TIA if you care to comment.
    Hi Mark,
    I like DIVO and have owned it in the past. I limit my funds to those with AUM over $100M while IDVO has only $9M and has an inception date of last September. By comparison, DIVO has $2.6B in AUM. IDVO has readily outperformed the S&P 500 during its existence. It has also outperformed DIVO readily.
    It will probably be fine applying a similar model as DIVO, but it is too small and too new for my taste.
    Looking at other Options Arbitrage / Strategies, I see not other funds that interest me with more AUM and age. IRONX, JHEQX, and JEPIX have good long-term performance and are Great Owls. ACIO has also done well. REMIX also uses options and has a good three-year history.
    While I find funds like IDVO interesting, I put them in a "Young Fund" Watchlist until they get more history.
  • Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    us and europe inflation is effectively over (meaning back to 2% or less), says yet another student
    (aside from lags and ongoing gouging)
    https://twitter.com/jan_eeckhout/status/1617478919560794112
  • Moderna Plans to Quadruple Covid Vaccine Price
    I have no personal experience with Paxlobid, thank goodness. However all my over 65 infected relatives have gotten it and hated it, even for five days. The taste is so bad it would be a great weight loss tool.
    I don't think the current recommendations are for more than five days and only in over 65 and high risk people, and while you might get your PCP who knows you to give you more, most people go to Urgent Care or a pharmacy where they do not have a known provider who trusts them
    Longer courses are reserved for people who rebound with significant symptoms.
    As far as the virus hanging around, no one knows. It likely can as other RNA viruses do like HIV. The nearest similar disease to long Covid is Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, which in many cases is due to a DNA virus mononucleosis. Some of these patients do improve with long term (months) of anti-viral therapy
  • Vanguard Predicts Stock Returns — You're Not Going To Like Them
    Guess I’m missing something. (Of course just their best guess.) But those are average annual returns - positive not negative. And likely to exceed both inflation and what cash / short-term fixed income would provide. Just eyeballing the list of equity investments, it appears to average out to something north of 6% per year. U.S. stocks as a group work out to 5.7% while small cap and international holdings are expected to do somewhat better
    One caveat: Those probably represent stocks net of fees. So if owned thru funds and your average ER = 1%, your return would be well below the projections.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    "Two feet of snow, slush and ice here on top of frozen soil and heading 10 degrees below zero (F) for the next several days. … I do have plenty of good reds, firewood, and stacks of books available.
    @Mark - Sounds like a living hell out there. Some music to ease the pain ….
    Road to Hell
    -
    @LewisBraham - Thanks for the above post. Much appreciated. A default on its debt by the largest superpower (and financial center) in the world would have many ramifications - some probably not yet imagined. Like I said elsewhere, the FX (foreign currency exchanges) would be a nightmare on the morning after. (Sorry for the apparent oxymoron)
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    For those who think their FDIC-insured bank accounts/CDs would be safe in the event of a Treasury bond default: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGSEC
    Things would be OK perhaps in the short-term if it's just a missed Treasury payment--a technical default- but not in the long-term for any extended standoff and collapse. The whole system is built on the "risk-free" rate of Treasuries, lives or dies with it. Banks own $4.4 trillion in government debt. And yes, it is a political issue. The extremists' goal of this standoff is to destroy the social safety net, cut Food Stamps, welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and, in the long-term, Social Security and Medicare. And so the fate of T-Bill and Treasury bond holders, the U.S. dollar, and our entire financial system is wrapped up with this debate.
    Meanwhile, the idea that the FDIC because it is financed by banks and not the government can save all the banks that would go bust in an extended default is wrong. The FDIC depends on the Deposit Insurance Fund--https://investopedia.com/terms/d/deposit-insurance-fund.asp--to bail out banks. As of the FDIC's last 2021 annual report issued in April of 2022--https://fdic.gov/about/financial-reports/reports/2021annualreport/2021-arfinal.pdf--the insurance fund had $115 billion set aside to bail out banks. That's good for a few banks, not for an entire financial system in disrepair. Even worse, what is the Deposit Insurance Fund invested in? Treasury bonds! See page 133 of the annual report.
    If we miss a T-bill/Treasury payment because of our government being held hostage, the world will survive. But going over the edge into a serious government bankruptcy would be end times for the capital markets. Nor am I trying to be alarmist. In fact, this scenario makes me almost positive the situation won't get any further than brinkmanship and everything for wealthy T-Bill/Treasury-bond holders--and every other investor in the financial food chain--will be fine. And even if the extremists kept pushing, the 14th amendment will be invoked: https://newrepublic.com/article/169857/debt-ceiling-law-terminate-constitution A missed payment and the volatility that will result because of it will be a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, some awful concession will be made regarding the safety net for America's poorest most vulnerable citizens--politics in the extreme.
  • Securian AM Balanced Stabilization & Securian AM Equity Stabilization Funds to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834423000972/fp0081937-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0081937-1_497.htm
    Securian AM Balanced Stabilization Fund
    Class A Shares –VVMAX
    Institutional Class Shares – VVMIX
    Securian AM Equity Stabilization Fund
    Class A Shares – VMEAX
    Institutional Class Shares – VMEIX
    Each a series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated January 25, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectuses
    and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated January 1, 2023.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for each of the Securian AM Balanced Stabilization Fund and the Securian AM Equity Stabilization Fund (each a “Fund”, together, the “Funds”). Each Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the respective Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately each Fund is closed to all new investment.
    Each Fund will be liquidated on or about February 27, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, each Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the respective Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the respective Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and each Fund will be dissolved.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of each Fund, Securian Asset Management, Inc., the Funds’ sub-advisor, may manage each Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of each Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Please contact the Funds at 1-800-207-7108 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    @Crash: Marigolds! If what you planted are anything like the calendula* seeds I put out ~ 15 years ago, they reseed like mad and make a good cover you'll never have to replant.
    * A marigold native to North America, only distantly related to some of the available ornamental marigolds. Common names can be a bit misleading ...
    The ones I've got are red metamorph. I actually like the acrid aroma. And I'm using pots on the deck, we own no land.
    :)
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    @Crash: Marigolds! If what you planted are anything like the calendula* seeds I put out ~ 15 years ago, they reseed like mad and make a good cover you'll never have to replant.
    * A marigold native to North America, only distantly related to some of the available ornamental marigolds. Common names can be a bit misleading ...
  • Vanguard Predicts Stock Returns — You're Not Going To Like Them
    Muted returns. Value over growth. International over US. Maybe 60/40 makes sense. Ten years is a very long time. But, this at least seems plausible.
    image
    Link
  • DOJ Files Antitrust Suit Against Google to Break up Its Ad Business
    https://npr.org/2023/01/24/1151055903/doj-files-second-antitrust-suit-against-google-seeks-to-break-up-its-ad-business
    The Justice Department and eight states on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against Google over its digital advertising business, claiming the tech giant illegally monopolizes the market for online ads.
    It is the second antitrust suit federal authorities have brought against the company's advertising empire, which has for years been under scrutiny over allegations of self-dealing and choking off competitors.
    "For 15 years, Google has pursued a course of anticompetitive conduct that has allowed it to halt the rise of rival technologies, manipulate auction mechanics, to insulate itself from competition, and force advertisers and publishers to use its tools," said Attorney General Merrick Garland at a press conference announcing the lawsuit.
  • Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    Curious if Lynn Bolin recommended any specific fund picks in his article for 2023.
    Ummm … In a roundabout way yes - there are recommendations. Tons of funds are listed, analyzed, compared. They are grouped into many different categories. He does identify several he owns. It’s a very lengthy article, so I’d be hesitant to just pluck a few of his choices out. Really needs to be read in totality. (I can say he thinks highly of mixed allocation funds for conservative retired investors.)
    I accessed article just 1 time using my DuckGo browser. But couldn’t get in again. A good approach would be to clear your computer or device’s cache and then attempt to access it. Only issue is you’ll later need to re-enter passwords for sites you frequently visit.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    I've been stepping into TAVFX, Third Ave Value fund and MOWNX, Moerus Worldwide funds...they own stocks of companies that deal in real assets...I'm thinking this is going to the wire meaning the debt limit and could get very wonky...US$ would go down bigly...do like the fund mgr comentary of TAVFX.."magical thinking the past 5 to 10 years, refers to SPACS, "private currency" dunno if he means shitcoins, trees growing to the sky US equities and transcending our physical world and reducing our dependcy of old economy activites like mining...I don't beleive any of those funds hold any Chinese company stocks as well which I consider a good thing, I don't care how they have doing lately etc. Also opened small position in SGGDX First Eagle Gold. To go along with strong bank, FDIC balance sheets CDs when my Tbills roll off. Still hold my PMEFX, PVCMX and HSAFX, Hussy which could hold up better than most during a debt limit crisis.
    As far as all the politico comments, I'll just say I have an opposite viewpoint of most of what was written in this thread and will refrain from adding my comments as to not offend anyone and keep the focus on investing.
    I also hope I am wrong but I can see the war in Ukraine spiraling out of control rapidly,,,my parents were in Europe during the War and the stories make me shiver....Mom saw folks chewing on the soles of their shoes and eating grass for nutrition....this has got to be de escelated. somehow someway, not pour more and more weapons in there.
    Good Luck to All,
    Baseball Fan
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    @Fred495 - From your OP: “As the OP, I specifically asked: " Would, for example, FDIC insured CDs be a place to hide out from a US government default?”
    Of course not. The FDIC is an agency of the Federal government. What makes you to think that a government that refuses to honor its direct debt obligations could be somehow counted on to honor those debt obligations it held indirectly? The Treasury Bond is receiving all the attention now because it could precipitate an immediate crisis as investors rush to redeem T-Bonds. However, should the banking system suffer another crisis similar to 2007-2008 (when the Treasury stepped in to back bank deposits) why would you believe that the same government that defaulted on its direct obligations would somehow honor those secondary obligations? Indeed, I don’t think enough attention (if any) has been paid to how a default might ripple over into the banking system. It’s not as if a big “pot” of federal money is sitting somewhere waiting to bail out every single bank at once. The FDIC works only because depositors trust the government to make them whole should their bank, or a small number of banks, fail.
    If you were a lender, would you consider lending a consumer money to finance a new auto when you knew they were already in the process of foreclosure on their primary residence for failing to pay the mortgage? I chose this example because it’s about as non-political as you can get. But the process / ranking of debt I believe, would be the same for home and auto lenders as for governments / governmental agencies. The U.S. T-Bond has long been regarded as the most secure investment on earth. Insured CD’s rank high too, but not as high as direct government obligations.
    You saidLet's discuss possible options”. Whew! First, I do not believe default will occur. And I plan to do absolutely nothing - maybe tweak my own investments by a hair. However, if you are that worried, one board member in another thread has suggested buying gold as a last resort. Never cared for the physical stuff. Difficult to store, secure and trade in bullion form. I might instead be inclined to suggest investing in Swiss francs or other stable currency in a country with a stable political system and high judicial / regulatory standards.
  • Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    can't get in. but thanks for playing, anyway. :)
    Thank you for the extra effort, hank. But no, it would not let me read it. Not past the header and bullet points. I'm glad to read from someone else on this thread the "closing thoughts" Lynn offered. THAT is helpful, indeed. @sven. @hank.
  • Jeremy "The Bear" Grantham
    https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/
    you may have to register to read it but always worthwhile.
    " Continued economic and financial problems are likely. I believe they could be dire"
    SP500 3200 end of 2023. Will probably dip further sometime this year.
    He believes the peak in 2021 was one of the classic bubbles in history like 1929 2000 and 2006 and most of the decline could be after the first rate cut.
    There is also a link to his recent interview about Climate Change