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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    just put in stop loss on SCHW at $50
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    I would assume if they are audited the IRS will want receipts, ie that $5000 check for the fence!
    Tell them to be glad their house value went up . We lost money on the sale of our house in CT over 30 years
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Just bought 10k SCHW. Already ahead $4.57! A winner, at last !!!
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Another possibility for a "safe harbor" option, if someone is etf savvy is the treasury floating rate ETF, USFR paying 4.79% now. It is all treasury bills with a duration 0f 0.02. In addition it is state tax free with 100% t-bills. This has worked well for me in this rising interest time but it can be bought and sold anytime without cost in most brokerages. I also own t-bills but USFR is hassle free if you do not wish to constantly roll over the t-bills on your own. I do not use the Fidelity rollover program because I prefer to be able to change each duration if appropriate when each matures and of course you do not pay the 0.15 ER of USFR in buying the t-bills themselves.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    I'm not bothered at all by the extra coverage some uninsured depositors received at SVB. I'm just glad the FDIC agrees to guarantee deposits up to $250,000. Some libertarians want to go back to pre-1933 and eliminate FDIC guarantees for any amount. OH hell no !
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Half of the deposits that remained post seizure have already flown the coup:
    $119B in Silicon Valley Bridge Bank deposits on March 10th.
    $56B in deposits transferred (sold) to First CItizens
    -----
    $63B in deposits pulled out of the bridge bank.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-rapid-withdrawals-100029288.html ($119B)
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/first-citizens-said-be-near-deal-silicon-valley-bank-bloomberg-news-2023-03-26/ ($56B)
    There's always a risk of failure. Just as we saw a move to government MMFs after Reserve Fund broke a buck, some large depositors have wised up to the fact that uninsured really means "at risk". Even though the Treasury provided temporary insurance after Reserve Fund failed and even after the FDIC covered all depositors at SVB.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    ssue not easily dismissed by red herring arguments. Of course other instances of injustice have existed throughout history. Doesn’t in any way explain or justify this instance.
    I think you missed my point. Depositors who get "only" $250K of insurance are not being cheated. They are getting their fair share of coverage. It's the fact that someone else is receiving extra that's the red herring. Sure you're envious, sure you think they shouldn't have gotten that extra coverage, but that's got nothing to do with how much coverage you fairly deserve - $250K.
    My insurer decides to cover neighbor’s loss. Says it will recoup its expenses by raising my insurance rates and those of other paying customers.
    You bring up cost, suggesting that this windfall (SVB depositor unlimited coverage) to others is costing you money. As has been recently pointed out, the FDIC bailout will be paid for by other banks, not by taxpayers. So the broad populace isn't bearing the insurance cost.
    What about the costs you bear indirectly as a customer of a bank being assessed for this bailout? In 1993 the FDIC changed the way it charged banks for coverage - the more risky the bank, the more they were charged (risk-based premiums). So some of this is already built into the system. And unlike the auto insurance example that's based by neighborhood, this premium discrimination appears to be done bank by bank.
    From what OJ posted at the top, it looks like the cost of the bailout might also be apportioned among banks according to the risks they pose. IMHO that would be a good idea.
    Finally, in your example, your neighbor was uninsured, rather than underinsured. There's a red herring FDIC does not bail out non-member banks. Those banks don't pose systemic risks because depositors at FDIC member banks will not start pulling money out upon seeing a non-member bank failing.
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    it was clear to the "market" (but not to regulators?) that IF the HTM Treasuries were marked-to-market, the equity (the book values) of the failed banks would have been wiped out.
    What does "clear to the 'market'" mean? Are we talking about the magnitude of the risk of being wiped out by a run? Wouldn't the market incorporate clearly perceived risk into an equity's price?
    If stock price is a metric of risk perception, it looks like the risk wasn't clear to the market until after SVB virtually failed. On March 8, SVB announced to the world that during the day it had run out of AFS securities and needed to raise cash immediately.
    The March 8th closing price of SIVB was $267.83, with volume in its typical range of well under 1M shares traded. The price was up 16% YTD. The next day trading volume exceeded 38M shares and the price dropped 60% while the market was open. It dropped further after the market closed before trading was halted.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SIVB/history?p=SIVB
    https://news.yahoo.com/svb-shares-slump-again-clients-105042807.html
    Technically there are only two failed US banks, SVB and Signature. Admittedly, Republic Bank would have failed without extraordinary measures.
    https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/bfb2023.html
    Signature Bank was different from SVB, because its involvement in cryptocurrency did make its risk apparent after SVB's collapse. Barron's wrote:
    Signature also had a cryptocurrency business. While Signature didn't have loans backed by cryptocurrencies or hold cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet, it had a payment platform for processing crypto transactions. But deposits associated with the crypto platform had been dropping, prompting some concern from Wall Street.
    Before SVB's failure, there wasn't too much concern. Signature had 10 Buy ratings out of 17 analysts listed on Bloomberg following earnings reported on Jan. 17. The average analyst price target was about $145 a share.
    As the crisis at SVB mounted, Signature stock fell about 50%. The company reported deposit balances of about $89 billion and loan balances of about $72 billion on March 8.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/signature-bank-shut-down-collapse-a0adf63f
    So far, I haven't found a report that Signature's security portfolio was loaded with Treasuries (not that I've looked that hard). As you noted, all types of long term securities are subject to interest rate risk - not just Treasuries, and not just illiquid securities. It would be interesting to know, strictly as a matter of curiosity, what Signature was holding.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    House sale and capital improvements to calculate capital gains on sale question.
    So, house purchased for 'x' $ 20 years ago.
    There is a capital gain on the sale of the property, which will be taxable.
    Improvements to the property may be used to change the 'cost basis' for calculating full capital gains tax.
    My question (below) is that it was stated that the owners made numerous improvements to the property over the years; which did provide for a higher sales price.
    One example is, a very nice fence that was placed around the property that cost $5,000 15 years ago, but would cost $15,000 to build today.
    The seller, of course, wants to keep the capital gains tax on the sale as low as possible.
    It is my understanding that they may use the original $5,000 to change the 'cost basis'; whereas it is suggested they may use the $15,000 cost (when the house was sold), if the fence was installed today, to calculate the 'cost basis'.
    In effect, they are suggesting using an 'inflation adjusted' value.
    Is this allowed in the IRS tax code for calculating a property sale 'cost basis' to establish the capital gains amount???
    Thank you for your time in sorting this conflict of thought about this process.
    Catch
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    There is lot of negative news on the CRE exposures of smaller banks. The 3 US bank failures so far had high exposures to US Treasuries (HTM*, AFS*) and had industry concentrations in tech (private-equity, venture-capital) and cryptos. No US bank has failed yet for the CRE exposure, but if that happens, that may be the max negativity for CREs. Affected may be quarterly-liquid (TIAA) T-REA and illiquid/nontraded-REITs - BREIT, SREIT (typical limits 2% per month, 5% per quarter), etc.
    Story is similar. The HTM portfolio is NOT marked-to-market. While that is "legal" and "allowed" by the accounting rules, it was clear to the "market" (but not to regulators?) that IF the HTM Treasuries were marked-to-market, the equity (the book values) of the failed banks would have been wiped out. When the bank runs happened, the HTM and AWS distinction basically disappeared. In the CREs, the revaluations are slow (e.g. T-REA), or not even done (some nontraded-REITs).
    Another concern is that the HTM and AWS practices are also found among insurance/annuity companies and pension funds, not just among banks, credit unions, brokerages.
    *HTM - Hold-to-maturity (these are not marked-to-market), AWS - Available-for-sale (these are marked-to-market)
  • TAGG ETF
    Here is the fact sheet that contains additional detail on the sectors and credit breakdown. It is a total return bond fund with US Aggregate bond index as its benchmark.
    https://troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/quarterly-factsheet/sub-type/etf-single-class?productCode=QBX&currency=USD
    A close competitor is Fidelity’s active managed Total Bond ETF, FBND. ER 0.36%.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Some uninsured depositors lucked out by getting coverage. We can complain all we want about how they shouldn't have gotten covered, verily how they exacerbated the problem. Still, depositors at other institutions aren't being shortchanged a nickel. They are getting all the coverage they bargained for.
    We've heard this sort of complaint before, e.g. from notch babies. With that cohort, as with depositors insured "only" up to $250K, the fact that someone else received a windfall does not mean that you should also receive more than you're entitled to.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @PressmUP
    The jury is still out. If all of SCHW deposits leave, even to their MMF, the Bank's income will drop 50%. That will obviously crater the stock. They claim they have enough cash, Marked to sale securities and can borrow enough to fund this. If you believe them, maybe they will not go bankrupt.
    I doubt all of the cash in the bank deposit program will leave, as a lot of it ( can't tell how much) is part of their asset management program where they force clients to keep a goodly amount in cash. But some will leave.
    Given all of this you could argue that buying the stock is a bet that all the money that wants to leave has left. Still I wonder where the upside catalyst is.
    I didn't buy much!
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Following are heavily edited excerpts from a current NPR report.
    Days after one of the largest bank failures in U.S. history, the fallout continues. Some of the country's top banking and financial regulators appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday to testify about what led to the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank. Policymakers will be debating whether new laws, rules or attitudes are needed to keep other banks from going under.

    Five takeaways from Tuesday's hearing:
    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks
    • Bank executives could pay

    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up-
    Regulators had some tough words about SVB's management at the hearing. Silicon Valley Bank more than tripled in size in the last three years, but its financial controls didn't keep pace.
    The government bonds it was buying with depositors' money tumbled in value as interest rates rose, but the bank seemed unconcerned by that. "The [bank's] risk model was not at all aligned with reality," said Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision. "This is a textbook case of bank mismanagement."
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed-
    How much blame should be laid at regulators feet? That was a question that cropped up repeatedly during the hearing.
    Barr stressed that federal regulators had repeatedly warned the bank's managers about the risks it was facing, at least as far back as October 2021. The bank was served with formal notices documenting "matters requiring attention" and "matters requiring immediate attention." But the risks remained and the Fed stopped short of ordering changes, which frustrated some of the senators in the Senate Banking Committee from both sides of the aisle.
    The problems developed during a time when the Fed was generally pursuing a light touch in bank regulation. In 2021, for example, the Fed issued a rule — at the urging of bank lobbyists — noting that guidance from bank supervisors does not carry the force of law. That led some senators to call out colleagues who pushed for lighter rules, only to turn around and blame a lack of regulatory muscle for the bank's failure.
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast-
    In their testimony, regulators also stressed the speed at which the banks collapsed. When big depositors got wind of the problems at Silicon Valley Bank, they raced to pull their money out, withdrawing $42 billion in a single day. The bank scrambled to borrow more money overnight, but it couldn't keep up. By the following morning, depositors had signaled plans to withdraw another $100 billion — more than the bank could get its hands on.
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks-
    Also under scrutiny throughout the testimony, was the federal regulators' decision to backstop all deposits at SVB as well as Signature Bank. Silicon Valley bank was taken over by the FDIC on March 10, but fears of a more widespread bank run led regulators to announce days later they would guarantee all the deposits at both SVB and Signature Bank, not just the $250,000 per account that's typically insured.
    By law, that money will come from a special assessment on other banks — and that's left many senators unhappy. The FDIC has some discretion in how those insurance costs are divided up among different categories of banks. A recommended formula will be announced in early May.
    • Bank executives could pay-
    The role of SVB's top executives came under scrutiny as well during the hearing. Lawmakers expressed frustration at reports that executives at Silicon Valley Bank sold stock and received bonuses shortly before the bank's collapse.
    Although the government doesn't have explicit authority to claw back compensation, it does have the power to levy fines, order restitution and prohibit those executives from working at other banks, if wrongdoing is found. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md, said "Almost every American would agree it's simply wrong for the CEO and top executives to profit from their own mismanagement and then leave FDIC holding the bag,"
  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    "...With so little cash it’s not worth my time and effort seeking out the best return..."
    That's where I'm always at, myself, too. So, someone shows me a better CD rate, and I seethe. For a moment. Then I remember it's just not how I operate. @hank
    I suspect there’s some others here who feel that way as well - to some extent. In fairness, the advantage of having a big cash stash (earning a decent return) is that it allows for taking greater risks in the markets with the remainder and to ride out 3, 4 or 5 year bear markets without having to touch that portion. There’s enough very smart people who invest that way for it to have credence. Some of it depends on one’s particular needs and situation.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Hi @davidrmoran Thanks for the link. I was able to 'sneak in' to read the article. I didn't think the monies our households added would place such a big bump into Fido's MMKT funds. :)
    From the article:
    While government money market funds aren’t insured, their holdings are considered super-safe: cash, US Treasuries and related debt, and securities issued or guaranteed by the US government or its agencies.
    Remember: While you can withdraw at any time, money fund yields fluctuate along with Treasury market interest rates. To lock in a yield you’ll need to tie up your money for a stretch.
    --- Not the best of writing in the bold above and misleading. The yields are more the result of FED funds rates, which does affect Treasury interest rates; AND there IS NOT a lock in period. Three of the common MMKT's at FIDO find one FZDXX that has to be bought and sold like a mutual fund; while core MMKT's of SPAXX and FDRXX are commonly linked directly to one's brokerage/MF account. NONE of them need to be held for 'X' period of time to obtain the yield.
    As of today, March 28, the following yields apply:
    --- FZDXX = 4.59%
    --- FDRXX = 4.43%
    --- SPAXX = 4.40%
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    @rforno - "I think."
    I've tried that, not much good ever ensues.
    "I was thinking, which is a thing a man should not do..." Dean Jagger as Major Harvey Stovall in "Twelve O'clock High."
    Go straight to 1:57:20.

  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    As I noted elsewhere my local credit union offered a 5+% rate on a 15-month CD with as little as $1,000 about 3 weeks ago. Took a quick look. Gosh, I hold very little cash in any form and what minimal amount is held needs to be fully liquid. I enjoy investing and spread the risk around across diverse assets which in aggregate, I believe, offer better return potential than cash. Am also inclined to lock-in short term gains (at the cost of potentially greater returns) which lowers overall risk. And it certainly helps to have a pension plus SS. So just not into cash - much as I’d like to support my local credit union.
    With so little cash it’s not worth my time and effort seeking out the best return. Fido’s SPAXX.works for me - being essentially a store of “dry powder” in case bargains appear. It’s been interesting, educational - and mildly amusing - watching many posters seeking-out the best rates across the banking industry or treasury market for many months now. I understand and respect their reasons, trusting that’s what works for them.
    As far as RMDs are concerned, at a much earlier age I converted most of my IRA anssets into Roths. The fact that they require no RMDs was a primary reason for so doing. The remaining smaller traditional IRA requires RMDs, but I typically pull more than required from that every year anyway to supplement expenses - the Roth being reserved for larger purchases / unexpected contingencies..
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Right, CDs are paying a bit more, but factoring in tax equivalency and risk, for me it's pretty much a coin toss. Not buying either at the moment. (4.9-5.0 seems to be the top of the range for shorter maturity Ts right now, at least until something shifts in inflation/recession/bank trouble expectations.)
  • No-penalty CDs
    For a few more days now, MainStreet Bank in the DC area is offering a 5% APY 15 month CD. You have to call the bank about an account. Ally Bank is offering a 4.75% 11 month CD, which is not taxable until maturity or redemption. (CDs with maturity of a year or less are tax-deferred until cashed out.)
    https://mstreetbank.com/
    https://www.ally.com/bank/no-penalty-cd/
    MainStreet Bank of Fairfax, Virginia, introduced a 15-month, no-penalty CD with a 5% rate on March 14 but the small bank had planned to roll out the product before the Silicon Valley crisis, says CEO Jeff Dick. He says the bank’s deposits have grown, rather than shrunk, in the wake of Silicon Valley's troubles.
    He added, however, that MainStreet was planning to offer the CD for just three weeks. With many customers shifting deposits since the crisis, “We’re going to keep it out there now” for another week or two. “I definitely want to have more of a cushion.”
    USA Today via MSN
    If one is expecting rates to continue rising, or at least not fall, no-penalty CDs can be a good option if one can come close to "regular" CDs with withdrawal penalties or broker-sold CDs.