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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    @kings53man- OK, "collected by the government"... I'm with you.
    Ummm... next question: Paid by who?
    Ummm... Answer: the American people. That would include you, yes? Be sure to let us know how things are going at Walmart.
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    @kings53man
    You, I, everyone will be paying for that (import tax). So, one is really paying the government an additional pass through tax. I'll thank you in advance; and don't forget to start watching the prices at Walmart and other stores, eh?
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    @Sven- yes, that's true. But @kings53man said: "gut environment regulations".
    Typical of the present White House administration.
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    @kings53man said: "Some of the materials are radioactive that makes the refining expensive and subjected to strict environmental regulations> We can do this, gut environment regulations and get this on fast track."
    Good plan. I vote they build a facility in your backyard.
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    @lynnbolin. I have been watching Global Wellesley but have not pulled the trigger because of the almost six year duration of the substantial bond portfolio. With all the uncertainty surrounding the bond market that seems an issue. Your thoughts?
    @larryB. In general, estimates of inflation from the Federal Reserve and OECD are that inflation will be above 3% this year and falling slightly next year, while The Conference Board has lower inflation this year and rising next year. Duration risk is a legitimate concern, but it matches the benchmark of 6 years. Secondly, Global Wellesley keeps about 52% invested in corporate bonds which may add a little risk compared to the category. The budget proposal adds to the national debt which is a risk for longer-term US rates. Most of the fixed income that I manage for the intermediate term is in short-term bonds including investment grade.
    What I like about Global Wellesley is that only 39% is invested in the US with much of the rest in Europe. 14.4% of the credit is invested in the US government. I bought Global Wellesley for its conservative global exposure.
    Here are some associated articles:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vgyax/quote
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vgyax#portfolio-composition
    https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.html?adestraproject=Economics Department News&utm_campaign=EO-June2025&utm_content=june-eo-chart&utm_term=eco&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra
  • Athena Behavioral Tactical Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314414/000158064225003443/nlft-athena_497.htm
    497 1 nlft-athena_497.htm
    ATHENA BEHAVIORAL TACTICAL FUND
    a Series of Northern Lights Fund Trust
    Class I shares ATVIX
    Supplement dated June 4, 2025 to
    the Prospectus and Statement of Information dated August 28, 2024
    The Board of Trustees of Northern Lights Fund Trust (the “Board”) has determined based on the recommendation of the investment adviser of the Athena Behavioral Tactical Fund (the “Fund”), that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on July 7, 2025.
    Effective at the close of business June 4, 2025, the Fund will not accept any purchases and may no longer pursue its stated investment objectives. The Fund may begin liquidating its portfolio and may invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
    Prior to July 7, 2025, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO JULY 7, 2025 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT 1-833-653-0575.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement and the existing Prospectus dated August 28, 2024, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated August 28, 2024, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-877-766-2264.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Used dividend money paid out yesterday to buy a few more in BLX. It's 7.56% of portfolio now. US is too rich, plus the political chaos. Buying elsewhere opens up business-to-business avenues free from the Orange Chaos.
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    Do we need rare-earth materials for regular auto (gasoline based)?
    Maybe not for a Model T, but according to an industry statement quoted by Reuters:
    "Without reliable access to these elements and magnets, automotive suppliers will be unable to produce critical automotive components, including automatic transmissions, throttle bodies, alternators, various motors, sensors, seat belts, speakers, lights, motors, power steering, and cameras," the Alliance for Automotive Innovation wrote the Trump administration.
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    are we heading down the path of China, whose government economic data we absolutely knew was manipulated?
    The numbers are still accurate, at least for now.
    The published report, released Monday but dated May 29, includes numbers that are unchanged from how they would’ve read in the unredacted report
    It's not as though someone pulled out a Sharpie and marked up the data. Oh, yeah ...
    image
  • ETF EPS
    We seem to be writing at cross purposes.
    You were "looking for earnings-weighted ETFs and found them". I'm looking for reasons to seek out such ETFs, and how well the ETFs you found meet those objectives.
    In particular, I'm concerned with the effects of anomalous transient spikes in individual company's earnings. Like "pops" on a vinyl record. Here's a basic description of how a simple low pass filter can help smooth spikes like this:
    image
    into signals like this:
    image
    https://www.eetimes.com/the-math-of-dsp-part-3-filters/ (See example 1)
    Shiller's PE10 does P/E average over 10 years
    Shiller looks at diversified markets (e.g. S&P 500) and at sectors, not at individual companies. Merely by using market (or sector) averages he is already smoothing out individual company "pops". He uses 10 (and 20¹) year averaging is to smooth data over full business cycles (10 years serving as a proxy for a business cycle). Different focus, apples and oranges.
    https://indices.cib.barclays/dms/Public marketing/Shiller10_brochure.pdf
    I agree with your original statement that using earnings exclusively takes valuations out of the picture. I'm still trying to understand why one would want that.
    ¹ This is the first time I noticed Shiller's use of 10 and 20 year averages. My mind immediately jumped to the Nyquist-Shannon theorem (sampling must be done at at least twice the frequency of a signal being sampled, see 44.1kHz audio sampling). Just an instantaneous pattern recognition; I've given it no thought as to whether it makes sense in this context. Shiller averages PE10 ratios over 20 years to serve as a baseline.
  • USG delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
    I'm not sure we're going to be able to trust economic reports coming from the USG these days....are we heading down the path of China, whose government economic data we absolutely knew was manipulated?
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/04/trump-officials-farm-product-trade-deficit-forecast-00382549
    Per Politico:

    Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter.
    The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic policies, including tariffs, will reduce U.S. trade imbalances. The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit.
    < - >
    “The report was hung up in internal clearance process and was not finalized in time for its typical deadline,” said USDA spokesperson Alec Varsamis in a statement. “Given this report is not statutory as with many other reports USDA does, the Department is undergoing a review of all of its non-statutory reports, including this one, to determine next steps.” [Rick: I call BS on this, it's a standing report that everyone knows when it will come out and there's no excuse for it to be 'hung up' in process - this is a very weak excuse imo.]
    It’s not clear when or if the written analysis portion will be released.
    < - >
    Republicans used the quarterly report’s rising trade deficit projections during the Biden administration to accuse then-Secretary Tom Vilsack of not doing enough to promote U.S. farm exports. Agriculture secretaries historically have used the forecasts to promote policy initiatives.
    < - >
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    Some observations after going through MFO, June 1, 2025.
    @lynnbolin2021: A few years ago, I moved from Wellesley VWINX / VWIAX and VGWIX / VGYAX to Wellington VWELX / VWENX and VGWLX / VGWAX. I used ST- or ultra-ST- bond fund to make appropriate allocation adjustments. Maybe, with higher interest rates, it's time to take another look at Wellesley.
    @yogibearbull: You may be interested in the following articles. I have reduced my stock to bond allocation from 67% to 50% over the past nine months or so. Last month, I reduced risk by trading equity funds for the Vanguard Global Wellesley and helped family and friends do the same.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consider-flipping-your-60-40-portfolio-to-40-60-as-bonds-become-more-attractive-than-stocks-2f0ce96b
    https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/bonds-remain-favor-time-varying-model-portfolio.html
  • Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
    @Sven there is one US processor currently in business: https://mpmaterials.com/ and https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/mp/quote
    Actually, it's the only operating miner and processor in the Western Hemisphere according to the M* link. However, Canada also has a claim: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/international-issues/canada-opens-its-first-commercial-rare-earth-elements-refinery/ I wonder what has happened to that project in the current environment.
    The Pea Ridge mine is permitted, but not yet producing. https://calderausa.com/
    As for recycling, this project surprised me: https://www.azcommerce.com/news-events/news/2025/4/cyclic-materials-to-invest-over-20-million-in-first-us-commercial-facility-in-mesa/
  • RiverNorth Core Opportunity Fund to be reorganized into an ETF
    Just sold RIV after approximately 6-8 weeks. Fido says I made 9.59% on it in that short a time. Hated to let go. Been doing some de-risking. Nothing to do with politics or global affairs. Just woke up one morning and realized that at nearly 80 I was still investing like a 60 year old kid.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. It went down from 2.6% on Dec 24 to 2.1%. This is a four-year low.
    The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30.
    mmm...not bad.
  • Virtus KAR Long/Short Equity Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1589756/000093041325001936/c112806_497.htm
    497 1 c112806_497.htm
    Virtus KAR Long/Short Equity Fund (the “Fund”),
    a series of Virtus Alternative Solutions Trust
    Supplement dated June 3, 2025, to the Summary Prospectus and the
    Virtus Alternative Solutions Trust Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) applicable to the Fund, each dated February 28, 2025
    Important Notice to Investors
    On June 3, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Alternative Solutions Trust voted to approve a Plan of Liquidation for the Fund, pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about July 25, 2025 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective July 3, 2025, the Fund will be closed to new investors and additional investor deposits, except that purchases will continue to be accepted for defined contribution and defined benefit retirement plans, the Fund will continue to accept payroll contributions and other types of purchase transactions from both existing and new participants in such plans, and the Fund will allow reinvestment of distributions from existing shareholders. Investors should note that the Fund’s investments will be sold in anticipation of the Liquidation and may be sold in advance of July 3, 2025.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem or exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any other Virtus Mutual Fund. There will be no fee or sales charges associated with exchange or redemption requests.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will begin engaging in business and activities for the purposes of winding down the Fund’s business affairs and transitioning some or all of the Fund’s portfolio to cash and cash equivalents in preparation for the orderly Liquidation and subsequent distribution of its assets on the Liquidation Date. During this transition period, the Fund will no longer pursue its investment objective or be managed in a manner consistent with its investment strategies, as stated in the Prospectuses. This is likely to impact the Fund’s performance. The impending Liquidation of the Fund may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Fund’s expense ratios. Those shareholders who remain invested in the Fund during part or all of this transition period may bear increased brokerage and other transaction expenses relating to the sale of portfolio investments prior to the Liquidation Date.
    On the Liquidation Date, any outstanding shares of the Fund will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business, except those shares held in BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts, which will be exchanged for the same class of shares of Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund, with the exception of Class C shares which will be exchanged for Class A shares of Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund, and any contingent deferred sales charges will be waived. Shareholders with BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts should consult the prospectus for the Virtus Seix U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund for information about that fund.
    The proceeds of any redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Fund has paid or provided for all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these proceeds will occur as soon as practicable and will be made to all Fund shareholders of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, if required, the Fund will declare and distribute to shareholders any undistributed realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final Liquidation distribution. To the extent that the Fund has experienced redemptions prior to the date the Fund distributes any realized capital gains and net investment income, the remaining shareholders at the time of the distribution(s) may bear increased tax liability due to receiving a higher proportion of the distribution(s).
    Although shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of the Liquidation in cash, proceeds distributed to shareholders may be paid in cash, cash equivalents, or portfolio investments equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund (the latter payment method, “in kind”). Shareholders who receive proceeds in kind should expect (i) that the in-kind distribution will be subject to market and other risks, such as liquidity risk, before sale, and (ii) to incur transaction costs, including brokerage costs, when converting the investments to cash.
    Because the exchange or redemption of your shares could be a taxable event, we suggest you consult with your tax advisor prior to the Fund’s Liquidation.
    Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    VAST 8034 KAR L/S Equity Fund Liquidation (6/2025)
  • Fed farm Bonds 4.8% callable- Disclosure Question
    Here's the term sheet: https://www.farmcreditfunding.com/ffcb_live/termsheet/3133ETDT1.pdf
    and the complete (64 page) offering circular including risk factors:
    https://www.farmcreditfunding.com/ffcb_live/pdfs/offcirc/BondAndDNOfferingCircular2024.pdf
    I'm guessing that you're expecting these to get called in a month since (a) you write about parking cash, and (b) 50 basis points is the spread between 4.3% 1 month T-bills and this 4.8% bond. (Fidelity reports the spread to Treasuries (4 years) as 0.855%.) So one risk you may be facing is the possibility of being "stuck" with these bonds for a few years or selling at a loss.
    The issuer has an interesting structure. It is a corporation formed by the issuing banks in order to issue bonds. Should some underlying banks fail (and the other banks be unable to service the bonds), these bonds would be junior to bonds issued by the banks individually.
    The banks in turn have an interesting structure. They are ultimately owned by cooperatives of borrowers (think farms borrowing from these banks). "The [Farm Credit] System’s mission is to support rural communities and agriculture with reliable, consistent credit and financial services."
    This in turn suggests a sector concentration risk that could be aggravated by government policy. This is not a tangential political statement. Rather it is written into the offering circular:
    These risks depend on a number of factors, including financial, economic and political events, over which the Banks have no control, including trade policy agenda, such as retaliatory actions by other countries.
    When issuers are under financial stress, they often are unable to refinance higher interest debt at market rates. Consequently, even without defaulting, stress increases the likelihood that they don't call their outstanding debt as you expect.
    Do I think that all of this to blow up within a month or so (to first call date)? Probably not. Will the bonds get called "on schedule"? Don't know. Not trying to scare you here. Just taking a quick look at the risks stated in the circular.