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@larryB. In general, estimates of inflation from the Federal Reserve and OECD are that inflation will be above 3% this year and falling slightly next year, while The Conference Board has lower inflation this year and rising next year. Duration risk is a legitimate concern, but it matches the benchmark of 6 years. Secondly, Global Wellesley keeps about 52% invested in corporate bonds which may add a little risk compared to the category. The budget proposal adds to the national debt which is a risk for longer-term US rates. Most of the fixed income that I manage for the intermediate term is in short-term bonds including investment grade.@lynnbolin. I have been watching Global Wellesley but have not pulled the trigger because of the almost six year duration of the substantial bond portfolio. With all the uncertainty surrounding the bond market that seems an issue. Your thoughts?
Maybe not for a Model T, but according to an industry statement quoted by Reuters:Do we need rare-earth materials for regular auto (gasoline based)?
"Without reliable access to these elements and magnets, automotive suppliers will be unable to produce critical automotive components, including automatic transmissions, throttle bodies, alternators, various motors, sensors, seat belts, speakers, lights, motors, power steering, and cameras," the Alliance for Automotive Innovation wrote the Trump administration.
It's not as though someone pulled out a Sharpie and marked up the data. Oh, yeah ...The published report, released Monday but dated May 29, includes numbers that are unchanged from how they would’ve read in the unredacted report
@yogibearbull: You may be interested in the following articles. I have reduced my stock to bond allocation from 67% to 50% over the past nine months or so. Last month, I reduced risk by trading equity funds for the Vanguard Global Wellesley and helped family and friends do the same.Some observations after going through MFO, June 1, 2025.
@lynnbolin2021: A few years ago, I moved from Wellesley VWINX / VWIAX and VGWIX / VGYAX to Wellington VWELX / VWENX and VGWLX / VGWAX. I used ST- or ultra-ST- bond fund to make appropriate allocation adjustments. Maybe, with higher interest rates, it's time to take another look at Wellesley.
When issuers are under financial stress, they often are unable to refinance higher interest debt at market rates. Consequently, even without defaulting, stress increases the likelihood that they don't call their outstanding debt as you expect.These risks depend on a number of factors, including financial, economic and political events, over which the Banks have no control, including trade policy agenda, such as retaliatory actions by other countries.
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