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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Thanks, @Crash, I'd fogotten about RY this week. One of the guests made a pitch for shorter duration corporates barbelled with the 10y Treasury. Interesting, but not for moi when 6m and 1y Ts are paying 5%. If 2y or 3y Treasuries cross 5%, I'll be in with a lot more than spare change.
    Word up! :)
    I'm in (TIPs) SCHP. Duration average is 6.59. playing the middle, but leaning into longer durations.....12-month yield currently: 6.93%. Yes, a fund is not the same as actual Ts. :)
    Super-low ER, though. Brings another smile. :)
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Thanks, @Crash, I'd fogotten about RY this week. One of the guests made a pitch for shorter duration corporates barbelled with the 10y Treasury. Interesting, but not for moi when 6m and 1y Ts are paying 5%. If 2y or 3y Treasuries cross 5%, I'll be in with a lot more than spare change.
  • Tis the season, Foreign tax credit
    Obscure foreign tax credit gotcha:
    Taking a credit usually is more advantageous, but to qualify you must have held your shares in a fund for at least 16 days of the 31-day period starting 15 days before the ex-dividend date of the fund. For additional information, refer to IRS Publication 514, Foreign Tax Credit for Individuals, and the Instructions for Form 1116, Foreign Tax Credit (Individual, Estate, or Trust).
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/fund-specific/reporting-for-foreign-taxes-paid.html
  • Or does this belong under "fund discussions?" GQG/Adani
    Wife drags me out! Before my hip acted up I could do 5. Hips are a lot easier to deal with then knees!
  • Or does this belong under "fund discussions?" GQG/Adani
    +1 sma3 Good job on walking 3 miles a day! I walk about 1 or 1.5 miles a day at a variety of parks in the area but I'm afraid 3 miles a day might aggravate my knee problems.
  • Barron's and ESG
    Barron's has hit a double ( two weeks) ESG covers
    Two weeks ago it was plastic waste and recycling
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheap-new-plastic-choking-the-world-9b318936?mod=past_editions
    This week Agriculture and fertilizer emphasizing new technology to deal with drought and changing climate.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/economy-farmers-deere-agco-stocks-c4ca8e8c?mod=past_editions
    Unfortunately, neither is as precise and insightful as they could have been, with only few investment ideas.
    But it does show how the financial press is still thinking about pollution, climate change and ESG
    And "100 best Sustainable Companies" in this week's edition.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-sustainable-esg-us-companies-1b5f70fd?mod=past_editions
    They point out that "The top 100 returned an average negative 9.5% in 2022 versus negative 18.1% for the S&P 500 index. Moreover, 63% outperformed the index, up from 47% in 2021. "
    I would hope this message gets around and will convince our lawmakers to stay out of investment decisions or their constituents will suffer.
    Apologies to anyone who can't open the articles. Who knows how to post the entire article?
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    The search page linked below might pull it up. Top of list.
    Google
    (My Hulu TV records it automatically)
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Over, Under, Sideways, Down; February 27 - March 3, 2023
    The above is a song title of a Yardbirds song from 1966. Not about investing, but the words fit the current investing market place, eh?
    How about the state of things at the moment, it's all over the place, so it's sort of over, under, sideways, down.
    ---Over.....over valued
    ---Under..... under valued
    ---Sideways.....just plain sideways in values
    ---Down.....prices down for equity and bonds, bad; down yields for bonds, good for bond pricing and borrowing needs, private and business
    Other than these, everything is very clear in the investing world at this time :)
    Parts still on back order for the Magic 8 ball....crap!
    --- This list Feb. 20- 27 (most current for a full week) FUND FLOWS
    Pretty much bond-land for this time frame.
    Top 10 Creations (All ETFs) ...Ticker... Fund Name... Net In-Flows (millions)
    SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF 3,146.28
    BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF 1,841.76
    SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 1,339.54
    BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 943.49
    SPTS SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF 835.62
    JPST JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF 695.99
    TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 685.80
    GBIL Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF 626.00
    JEPI JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF 526.29
    SMLF iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap Multifactor ETF 490.80
    --- Friday, March 3.....ISM (Institute of Supply Management) services sector report is too 'hot' for the FED's liking. Too many folks still working. The number 50 is the base line, and the current number is 55.1, with an estimate of 54.5; the highest since December, 2021. One suspects we may find another higher (.5) Fed funds rate increase in our near future.
    ISM services covers many areas of economic measurements. Read about them here, if you're curious about the reports.
    ***Bonds were in a funk until Friday helped many sectors become happy for the week. The Real Yield thread at MFO may help with some of the current thinking. I remain with the thought that the 'pundits', if they're drinkers, would rather be throwing a few down at their favorite bar; as I'm convinced a lot of them don't know which darts to use for the board, either. I always keep in mind while watching yields that they only apply to our investing to a point, as I'm not buying individual bonds to hold for ten years or whatever time frame to obtain a full 4% rate. Our house watches the yields and how they are going to affect pricing, as we're buying the price, not the yield. Pension funds and related may be happy with long term holdings of bonds; but we retail investors for the most part, are buying bond mutual funds or bond etf's; and this is where pricing becomes most important, IMHO. NOTE: 'Hedge funds' also play big in the bond etf world. Yes, we may want to hold the fund or etf long term, but our goal is to buy 'low', right? Wouldn't it be nice to buy a fund with a sideways price and a yield of +6%; and just hold on, to support your income flows and balance one's equity holdings.
    Those MMKT's. Stagnant yields again this week, as they've hit a plateau; but most still having a yield between 4.2 and 4.5%, unless it's a magic sauce MMKT. Perhaps another bump up in yields when the FED raises rates again.
    --- U.S.$ DOWN -.64% for the week, +1.18% YTD (Big POP this week)
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 27 - March 3, 2023
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 4.46% (flat lined now). The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time. *** These rates have now mostly flat lined for two weeks.
    --- AGG = +.19% / +.58% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.02% / +1.15% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.02% / -.12% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.07% / -.49% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.05% / -.22% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +1.36% / +1.48% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.71% / +.81% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.72% / +.66% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +3.0% / +4.14% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +1.16% / +2.86% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +1.66% / +4.31% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.38% / +5.05% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -2.3% / -5.14% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +2.8% / +4.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.1% / +.57% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = +.66% / +1.37% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.96% / +3.92% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +1.35% / +2.6% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.1 %/+1.2% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.44% /+.36% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.58%/+1.62% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +1.15% / +5.67% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +1.4% / +7.67% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.46% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    VIX is a way to assess the short-term volatility of SP500. It is imperfect because its current and real-time measurements differ from the historically realized volatilities. VIX cannot be traded directly, but only through VIX futures. There are several futures-based VIX ETFs. There are also "VIX" for other markets.
    https://etfdb.com/index/sp-500-vix-short-term-futures-tr/
  • MFO March 1, 2023 Commentary!
    Is the March 1 issue delayed?
    I also see that @David_Snowball last logged in on 2/25/23. I hope that everything is OK.
  • Or does this belong under "fund discussions?" GQG/Adani
    Physical ailments: sorry to hear about that. In 2021, after surgery, doc told me: "Yes, I removed what was left of your L-5 disc. So much pain for so many years. Now, quite a bit less. So, you use PT. i found it to be quite useless. Best wishes to you as we ALL grow older.
  • Pimco Multisector Bond ETF PYLD
    M* Ptak noted this new filing in a Twitter LINK that seems similar in description to PIMIX but it isn't stated explicitly. ER is missing too.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1450011/000119312523058554/d471085d485apos.htm
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    Silvergate/SI is an FDIC insured bank
    That’s interesting. One of the Fed “open-mouth committee” members seemed to hint at a rate hike pause yesterday (for later this year). Strange talk I thought based on past Fed rhetoric. Was scratching my head trying to figure out what possible scent in the wind might have gotten their attention? Banks possibly? Elsewhere, I read today that one recent problems facing crypto banks is the high rate of interest now available to mom & pop investors thru T-Bills, money market funds, etc. so that people are somewhat less inclined to play around with crypto. I don’t mean to cry “wolf” here or anything like that. Just find all this a bit interesting.
    BTW -The VIX fell over 5% today and at 18.49 sits just above its 12-month low. And it’s down nearly 50% over the past 12-months. From that, can we conclude there’s not a lot of fear in the markets?
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    The StockCharts bar represents trading days, e.g. 30 days ending March 1 starts on January 18th.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?RPHYX&n=30&O=011000
    "The box that moves from side to side inside the slider area is called the 'thumb,' which displays the number of trading days represented on the chart."
    https://support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=other-tools:perfcharts
    Assuming compounding and 252 trading days per year, the 30 day figure would annualize to:
    10 ^ [log (1 + 0.0041) * (252/30)] - 1 = 3.50% (or more simply, 0.41% x 252/30 = 3.44%)
    The 180 day figure would annualize to:
    10 ^ [log (1 + .033) * (252/180)] - 1 = 4.65% (or more simply, 3.3% x 252/180 = 4.62%)
    Normally I would look back at least this far. But since rates have risen significantly in the past several months and speculation is that they won't rise as fast over the next few months, I would look more closely at the past 1-3 months. I would then fudge the result, increasing it somewhat since slower rate increases means less share price decline.
    (Fudging is just another way of saying that Feb is not representative because of rapidly rising rates as suggested by some daily declines in share price.)
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Thanks @Sven.
    Your link didn’t work for me, but found the Zweig article in my Kindle edition of the WSJ from Saturday. Never been a big Zweig fan. Good advice usually, just not very deep. But he hits the nail on the head in leading off with the following:
    ”Bonds are getting beaten down again. That means they can do a better job of protecting the rest of your portfolio against getting beaten up.”
    I agree. But it all depends on one’s investment approach. Certainly, the 4-5%+ returns on short term bonds & money funds are attractive and relatively risk-free. Fits the bill for many. All the while longer dated bond funds have been losing money. But for those who are more aggressively positioned in equities, having some intermediate or longer dated bonds / bond funds might provide a needed offset should the equity markets go to hell. Not saying that will happen. Just that for some folks bonds may have a role to play in how they construct their portfolios. I’ve tried to derive lessons from the 2008 fiasco. Appears most bonds / bond funds did not do very well but that those with government backing (especially longer dated) gained during 2008.
    It’s increasingly hard to find people in the investing business today who think U.S. stocks offer the same value proposition now that intermediate term bonds do. Doesn’t mean they have it right. And I prefer to stick to an allocation model I’ve put a lot of thought into over many years rather than jumping from one “hot” investment idea to another.
    Another observation: If I understand Zweig correctly, near the end of the article he says he thinks commodities will rise along with interest rates. Interesting conjecture.
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    I go back and forth on this fund versus treasuries now in the 4.7-5% range, but RPHYX has actually had a relatively good run the past 6 months.
    What I see for total return over that time:
    180 days +3.3% extrapolated 1 year return 6.6%
    90 days +2.11% extrapolate 1 year return 8.4%
    60 days +1.13% extrapolate 1 year return 6.8%
    30 days +.41% extrapolate 1 year return 4.9%
    Extrapolating the data is anything but exact, but I think it gives a closer idea than yield for where it's headed in comparison to other fixed income, like treasuries. Maybe I'm wrong on that. That said, this fund was the bulk of my withdrawal bucket for quite a while, but I have reduced it substantially the past couple months to buy treasuries.
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    I prefer to look at total return. If we're looking at payout rates, the payout rate of T-bills is 0.00% (zero coupon). At this point, 6 month T-bills come out a bit better.
    Annualized total return of RPHIX extrapolating from YTD (Jan &Feb, 59 days) of 0.72% comes out to about 4.53% with daily compounding. In a modestly rising interest rate environment I expect a slightly better return - with high turnover (164%), reinvestments should fetch a bit higher yield.
    Projected yield on next auction of 6 month T-bills is 4.9%. Duration is 6 months (for zero coupon bonds, duration = maturity). Even if rates rise 3/4% in the next half year and one needs to liquidate, one should be able to get at least:
    4.9% - 1/2 year x 3/4% = 4.525%
    So in theory at least, one will get a somewhat better return with T-bills if held to maturity and will be risking very little if one sells early (mimicking the liquidity of RPHIX).
    Pretty close to a wash (aside from state income tax concerns) - one might think of RPHIX as a hold. New cash? I would go with the T-bills.
  • Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund to liquidate
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826732/000110465923027416/tm238039d1_497.htm
    1 tm238039d1_497.htm 497
    CALAMOS® FAMILY OF FUNDS
    CALAMOS INVESTMENT TRUST
    Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated March 1, 2023 to the Fund’s
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated March 1, 2023, as supplemented
    As previously disclosed in the prospectus supplements dated November 2, 2022 and February 17, 2023, the Fund’s Board of Trustees approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund at a meeting held on October 31, 2022.
    It is expected that the Fund will liquidate on or about March 27, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). All dates noted in this announcement are effective as of the close of business on the respective date.
    Effective February 21, 2023, the Fund stopped accepting purchases from new investors and existing shareholders, except that existing investors that hold Fund shares through defined contribution retirement plans as of February 17, 2023, may continue to purchase Fund shares through March 20, 2023. At this time, no final distribution is anticipated. If a final distribution is subsequently required, it will be paid no later than Wednesday, March 22, 2023. The Fund reserves the right to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Fund’s liquidation.
    Any contingent deferred sales charge that would be applicable on a redemption of the Fund’s shares shall be waived from February 21, 2023 to the Liquidation Date.
    Calamos expects to begin to reduce the remaining assets of the Fund to distributable form in cash on or around March 20, 2023, to facilitate the Fund’s liquidation. Beginning on that date, the Fund may no longer be invested in accordance with its principal investment strategies. The last date to place redemptions via the NSCC is Friday, March 24, 2023. After the close of business on the Liquidation Date, the Fund will liquidate any remaining shareholder accounts and will send shareholders the proceeds of the liquidation.
    PLEASE RETAIN SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • PRWCX/TRAIX Annual Report dated 12/31/2022
    Interesting he thinks energy is expensive although most oil stocks are trading at PE etc well below the SP500 and energy still makes up a tiny % of SP500
    I understand your sentiments @sma3, but I think we also have to look at:
    1) TTM P/E vs forward P/E (trailing measures include some flush and warnings due to higher energy prices in ‘22)
    2) Energy stocks generally always have low P/E’s, especially in relation to the overall market (S&P 500, etc.)
    Not a criticism….I do the same….also, I didn’t read the annual report yet, but I imagine he is saying defensive stocks (safer during recession risks and higher volatility) and commodities (inflation trades) are “played out.”