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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Funds from Barron's, 2/20/23
    One year rankings¹ are of little value.
    Out of 49 fund families, Vanguard was ranked 21st (43rd in 2021)
    while T. Rowe Price was ranked 36th (13th in 2021) in 2022.
    The methodology used for Barron's annual Fund Families feature should be questioned
    due to large annual rating changes and eligibility requirements².
    ¹ 5-Yr and 10-Yr rankings are also included.
    ² Only 49 asset managers out of the 854 in Lipper’s database met the criteria for 2022.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    ...And yet, I still want to stay Stateside--- mostly. Every time I go foreign, I get burned. I like my ADR in Norsk Hydro. And about my erstwhile favorite, CIBC bank in Canada: once AGAIN, they're in legal trouble. The bank just had to settle this matter:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cibc-settles-cerberus-matter-220000945.html?.tsrc=fin-srch
    "Flood of liquidity in Asia and Europe?" Huh? The G7 are all raising rates to fight inflation, no? Yes, Lizanne Saunders is great. I think Feeney is sensible. Clements is a one-note samba.
  • Blackstone Child Labor in Slaughterhouses and Low-Road Capitalism 2
    Packers Sanitation Services had children doing Blackstone's dirty work:
    https://nbcnews.com/news/us-news/feds-find-100-children-cleaning-slaughterhouses-pssi-rcna71171
    Federal officials say more than 100 children worked in dangerous jobs for slaughterhouse cleaning firm....The Labor Department says the children who were working overnight shifts used “caustic chemicals to clean razor-sharp saws.”
    Packers was acquired by Blackstone in 2018. The company was just fined only $1.5 million by the DOL for having 102 children as young as 13 working hazardous overnight jobs cleaning slaughterhouses in eight states. This in my view makes such fines just a cost of doing business. BlackStone's stock is already up 27% year-to-date, despite this announcement. Meanwhile, workers in general at the slaughterhouses have said conditions have been unsafe since Blackstone acquired it:
    https://pestakeholder.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Packers-Sanitation-Blackstone-Leonard-Green-PESP-March-2022.pdf

    • In July 2021, the US Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) cited PackersSanitation Services Inc, and three other companies in connection with a nitrogen leak that tragically caused the deaths of six workers and injured almost a dozen others at a Georgia poultry processing plant.
    • OSHA’s 2021 investigation found 17 serious and two repeat violations by Packers at the plant.
    • Packers Sanitation Solutions Inc. has been acquired by four different private equity firms since 2007.
    • Blackstone and Leonard Green/ AlpInvest extracted hundreds of millions of dollars from PSSI through
    transactions known as dividend recapitalizations, in which the private equity firms added debt to Packers
    Sanitation’s balance sheet in order to collect dividends for themselves.
    • According to a 2017 report by the National Employment Law Project (NELP) looking at OSHA severe injury data, PSSI stood out as a particularly dangerous workplace with one of the highest numbers of serious injury reports compared to its relatively small number of employees.
    Again, the fact that the stock is up strongly this year indicates Wall Street doesn't care.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    我能说什么 ... Wǒ néng shuō shénme (Wah nung sscho shen ma) ... What can I say.?!
    'What can I say?
    --- Indicating that nothing that could be said would add to or improve the situation.
    --- Something you say when you don't have any other good response to what someone says.
    --- A phrase used to emphasize the fact that one is unable to explain, excuse, or clarify something any further.
    I had the 'opportunity' to live in Taiwan for two years. A busy work period; but I did attempt to study some Mandarin language; to the point of learning common phrases and words, as others may when traveling. So, the reference to the phrase; also found of use in Chinese, too.
    @hank placed a quote from Bloomberg last week, and I also don't recall who stated it there: 'If your're not confused, you're not paying attention.' The original statement is placed to Tom Peters, a long time author of business modeling books. The quote is from his book, 'Thriving on Chaos: Handbook for a Management Revolution'. I still have his early work, 'In Search of Excellence' book.
    Thriving on Chaos seems to be a current summation, of follow the money, in this current investing environment.
    ***** As to, 'What can I say': Those here who follow 'Wall St. Week' and/or 'Real Yield' should be able to absorb a decent overview of the market week. There are market pieces, here and there; that may not be covered. But, I remain limited to add more many times. I continue to discover some of the 'other'. In light of this, being redundant becomes an issue with writing. I will attempt to add something of consequence, every week, aside for the data list.
    --- Tuesday, CPI: Inflation rose in January by 0.5% following a 0.1% increase in December.
    The CPI was up 6.4% from the same period in 2022. Both numbers were higher than expected.
    Across-the-board increases in shelter, food and energy boosted the index after inflation had shown signs of receding in recent months.
    --- Wednesday, Retail sales at 2 year high. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. But even accounting for the technical distortions, Americans are still spending. I don't find any slack in folks going to the restaurants in our area; as they are quite busy all days of the weeks.
    --- Thursday, PPI (Producer Price Index) at +.7% from December. Estimate was +.4%. Jobless claims down...194,000 v 200,000 estimate. I suspect the recent layoffs are not reported by those who could claim....yet; if they received a severance payment package, etc., or they have immediate employment elsewhere.
    --- Snippet: Reported that credit card debt hit $1 Trillion. Reporting agencies suggest card holders are paying off other debt or other necessary payments with cards. and not with a checking/savings account.
    --- U.S.$ UP +.24% for the week, +.49% YTD
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
    *** Bonds of most flavors received a face slap again this week, although many bond sectors were positive on FRIDAY, easing some of the losses. I'm still inclined towards IG bonds for the longer term, being year(s) not months; when the FED rates increases begin to stop and move downward. Duration right now is important for we investors, as the yield's for the short end are 'high'; as noted in the yield curve notations at MFO. At some point, when the economy finds a defined direction; longer duration will find a path. I keep watching for rotations with yields/pricing, as I lean more towards attempting to find the profit from pricing; but right now I'm happy with the +4% yields of a MMKT. This was not the case in April, 2022.
    Lastly, one may expect the FED to go back to the well of high rates, eh???; as they may not be pleased with all of the data points they gather.
    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 13 - Febuary 17, 2023
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds rate and ended the week at 4.47% . The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.20%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.
    --- AGG = -.43% / +1.29% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.12% / +1.13% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.07% / +.2% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.35% / +.2% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.57% / +.87% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.21% / +.95% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.04% / +.49% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.1% / +.42% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -.32% / +2.85% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -1% / +3.1% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -1.4% / +4.2% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -1.47 / +4.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +2.2% / -5.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -3.5% / +6.2% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.51% / +1.35% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -.675% / +1.84% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = -.38% / +3.3% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.29% / +1.75% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -1.5 %/+1.95% (VanEck HY Muni
    --- MUB = -1.18% /+.56 (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -.57%/+1.27% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +.12% / +6.27% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +.03% / +8.36% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.47% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says
    It's my sense -- or perhaps it's only a hope -- the Fed will unofficially tolerate a VERY long runway towards reaching their 2% goal. (And, if that goal proves to be an elusive target they can eventually de-emphasize the importance of reaching it.) Why would a 3% to 4% inflation rate be a big problem anyway?
    2% Inflation
  • Funds from Barron's, 2/20/23
    REVIEW. After doing well in FY 2021 (07/2020-06/2021), university ENDOWMENTS did poorly in FY 2022 (07/2021-06/2022) (but now is 02/2023! It takes that much tome to collect data from 678 institutions). Average allocations of 30% alternatives (some not marked to market, a concern) and 28% US equity meant that they outperformed the SP500. Gifts/donations remained strong.
    FUNDS. Best Fund Families are ranked based on performance in 8 fund categories and are asset-weighted.
    For 2022: 1-DFA, 2-Victory, 3-Neuberger Berman, 4-Capital Group/AF, 5-JPM,…, 18-Franklin Templeton,…, 21-Vanguard,…, 23-Pimco,…, 30-Fidelity, 31-Nuveen/TIAA,…, 36-Price.
    For 5 Years: 1-Fidelity, 2-MFS, 3-Putnam, 4-Mainstay, 5-Amundi US, 6-Pimco,…, 10-Neuberger Berman,…, 13-Capital Group/AF,. 14-JPM,…, 17-DFA, 18-Vanguard,…, 21-Price,…, 26-Victory, 30-Nuveen/TIAA,…, 41-Franklin Templeton.
    10-year rankings and rankings within the fund categories are also provided. (Too much detail to be included here, so access Barron’s online, at newsstand, or at local library)
    INCOME INVESTING. Be wary of higher-yielding EM debt, whether dollar-denominated (EMB) or in local currencies (EBND, LEMB). Many EM countries are at different stages of the rate cycle, and dollar can also have a significant impact.
    FUNDS. Gibson Smith, Smith Capital (core-plus SMTRX, etc); formerly, Janus Hendersen FI-CIO (JABAX, etc). After a disastrous 2022, BONDS in 2023 are the most attractive in a decade and may remain so for 12-24 months. Money is flowing into bond funds. The FED is near the tail end of its monetary tightening (rate hikes, QT). Remember that slowing economy or recessions are good for the bond market (true for investment-grade bonds, but not for spread products, HY, EMs, etc). He doesn’t like short-term bonds – yes, yields are attractive, but for how long? He likes IT/LT bonds and a BARBELL approach. Bond volatility will remain (Treasury MOVE 110.11). For corporates, he looks at company fundamentals first, and then invest in its bonds, investment-grade or HY. He also likes MBS and CMOs.
    (EXTRA) FUNDS. ETFs that are benefiting from higher rates include DIVO, DGRW, GCOW, LVHI, ROUS, TBF (short Treasuries).
    https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/403/barron-february-20-2023-2
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Legendary Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was highly critical of the Fed’s policy of targeting 2% inflation, saying he saw “no theoretical justification” for it and that if successful, it “would mean the price level doubles in little more than a generation.” In this EXTRA exclusive, Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida defends the 2% solution.


  • Intl vs Domestic, Stocks vs Bonds: Barbara Reinhard, Voya Mgmt Head of Allocations
    International stocks and U.S. stocks generally move in multi-year cycles.
    U.S. stocks have significantly outperformed foreign stocks for an extended period through 2021.
    Relative performance of S&P 500 vs. international developed markets based on five-year rolling returns*
    image
    Above zero, the U.S. market outperformed;
    below zero, international markets outperformed
    *Relative performance represents the S&P 500 Index’s returns minus
    international developed markets’ returns (MSCI World ex-U.S.).
    Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; monthly data from 1/31/75 – 12/31/21
  • Conestoga Micro Cap Fund to change name
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1175813/000139834423003751/fp0082374-1_497ixbrl.htm
    CONESTOGA FUNDS (the “Trust”)
    CONESTOGA MICRO CAP FUND
    Supplement dated February 17, 2023
    To the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated January 31, 2023
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS, SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND SAI. THIS SUPPLEMENT SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS, SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND SAI, AS APPLICABLE.
    On February 16, 2023, the Trust’s Board of Trustees approved a change to the name of the Conestoga Micro Cap Fund (the “Fund”) to the “Conestoga Discovery Fund.” The name change for the Fund will be effective on or about April 18, 2023. There will be no change to the Fund’s investment objective, principal investment strategies or investment limitations as a result of the name change.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826732/000110465923023265/a23-7211_1497.htm
    497 1 a23-7211_1497.htm 497
    CALAMOS INVESTMENT TRUST
    Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund (the "Fund")
    Supplement dated February 17, 2023 to the
    CALAMOS® FAMILY OF FUNDS
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2022, as Supplemented
    As previously disclosed in the prospectus supplement dated November 2, 2022, the Fund's Board of Trustees approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund at a meeting held on October 31, 2022.
    It is expected that the Fund will liquidate on or about March 27, 2023 (the "Liquidation Date"). All dates noted in this announcement are effective as of the close of business on the respective date.
    Effective February 21, 2023, the Fund will stop accepting purchases from new investors and existing shareholders, except that existing investors that hold Fund shares through defined contribution retirement plans as of February 17, 2023, may continue to purchase Fund shares through March 20, 2023. If a final distribution is required, it will be paid no later than Wednesday, March 22, 2023. The Fund reserves the right to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Fund's liquidation.
    Any contingent deferred sales charge that would be applicable on a redemption of the Fund's shares shall be waived from February 21, 2023, to the Liquidation Date.
    Calamos expects to begin to reduce the remaining assets of the Fund to distributable form in cash on or around March 20, 2023, to facilitate the Fund's liquidation. Beginning on that date, the Fund may no longer be invested in accordance with its principal investment strategies. The last date to place redemptions via the NSCC is Friday, March 24, 2023. After the close of business on the Liquidation Date, the Fund will liquidate any remaining shareholder accounts and will send shareholders the proceeds of the liquidation.
    PLEASE RETAIN SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Intl vs Domestic, Stocks vs Bonds: Barbara Reinhard, Voya Mgmt Head of Allocations
    I saw this interview last week on Bloomberg Surveillance, and thought that Ms. Reinhard discussed several key points as to the balance of 2023 and 2024. She appears to have been a guest on this network several times since.
    Her appearance starts at the 55:00 mark.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-02-10/-bloomberg-surveillance-simulcast-02-10-2023
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    NHYDY refuses to fall far enough to make me happy with my Limit Order. Just canceled. Bought a few shares in PSTL, instead. Then where did it go, after the order was executed? Down further, of course! Growl.
    down -1.12% on the day. Market just closed for the long week-end.
    down -2.77% over 5 days.
    down -1.67% over 3 months.
    YTD: +5.57%
    1 year: down -12.04%
    5 years: down -6.76%
    Why own this booger? It's the P.O. I think the divs are in the bag. I've been looking to find all the stoopid statistics and analysts' opinions on the stock, lately. Positive outlook, even if the target-price isn't much higher than where it is at the moment. Good market reaction to recent Earnings Report.
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    @derf. @hank
    Hello! Am I batting .500?
    I first put some money into single stocks back in the '90s. It was PG&E. Biggest utility in the country. Utilities are safe, right? Boom. The whole Erin Brokovitch stuff blew up in my face, and it was discovered that all those people down in Kern County (?) had been poisoned and were suffering from cancer because PG&E is a suck-hole company. There were also other incidents. A manhole cover blew out of its position from an explosion under the street in S.F. Someone else was injured seriously. And more.
    Crud. So, that outfit is on my shit-list.
    Only in 2021 did I begin again to dabble in single-stocks. Got my ass handed to me, via RGR and ENIC. No more of THAT.
    At last, I have made up the loss, plus a bit more, by now. I've learned to do better homework, make better decisions, I hope. I've held the same five (5) single-stocks in my new stable for the duration, since I once again started over.
    TRP lists them this way for me, in terms of "Personal Rate Of Return:" as of 17 Feb, '23:
    In the black:
    NHYDY
    ET
    JRSH (on fire lately. But a tiny investment.)
    BHB
    *******
    In the red:
    PSTL
    HYDB (ETF)
    SCHP (ETF)
    Diversified by industry as far as my budget will let me, too. That's deliberate.
    Hang in there! I'm happy today, despite the cruddy weather and the puke-ish Markets. I have opera tix for tonight!
    Best mutual fund for me, still: PRWCX.
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    It seems to me about 70% of the time when I sell something it comes back to life.
    Frustrating, isn’t it? I’ve had 2 or 3 like that the past 3 or 4 months. One stock I bought on a Barron’s recommendation in the fall only to watch it decline more than 6% a couple days later (all in 1 day). “Who needs this?” I asked - and ditched the *#!##. Well now it’s gained 10-15% above the initial purchase price and tends to rise on days when the market goes down. Of course I regret the knee-jerk reaction to sell it.
    There’s a couple things at work, here, however. First, who would have foreseen in November the impressive jump in the equity markets over the past 2-3 months? I sure didn’t. So just about anything you ditched 2-3 months ago is now much higher. But, those kinds of bets might just as easily have gone the other way - unless you have a very good crystal ball. The second factor is that those kinds of spec plays command a relatively small dollar investment. Who’s going to bet the farm (or even a sizable amount) all at once on what amounts to a speculative investment? Why is that important? Because even after an impressive % gain, the actual dollar gain from such a small investment months out is likely to be relatively small. What all this argues for, I think, is mostly larger investments in a limited stable of proven reliable holdings. Less exciting, but a lot more predictable. (Less stressful as well).
  • WPG Partners Small/Micro Cap Value Fund to change name
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831114/000139834423003678/fp0082357-1_497.htm
    THE RBB FUND, INC.
    Boston Partners Investment Funds
    WPG Partners Small/Micro Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Class (WPGTX)
    ______________________________________________________________________
    Supplement dated February 17, 2023
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated December 31, 2022
    ______________________________________________________________________
    This supplement serves as notification of the following change:
    At a recent meeting of the Board of Directors (“Board”) of The RBB Fund, Inc., the Board approved certain changes as described below:
    1. Change in the Name of the Fund
    Effective as of February 17, 2023, the name of the Fund is being changed to the “WPG Partners Small Cap Value Diversified Fund”. The investment objective and the investment strategies of the Fund are not being changed in connection with the name change for the Fund and the current portfolio managers will continue to manage the Fund subject to the current investment objective and investment strategies that they employ with respect to their management of the Fund.
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund is open to everyone
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312523041854/d449622d497.htm
    J.P. MORGAN U.S. EQUITY FUNDS
    JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    (a series of JPMorgan Trust I)
    (All Share Classes)
    Supplement dated February 17, 2023
    to the current Prospectuses, as supplemented
    As previously supplemented on February 9, 2023, effective February 17, 2023, the Fund will no longer be subject to a limited offering, and all limited offering disclosure relating to the Fund will be deleted.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE
    PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-HE-223-2
    The fund was last closed March 12, 2021.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312521045281/d119465d497.htm
  • Problems with Model Portfolios
    Why model portfolios won’t help you to succeed in the stock market.

    February 14, 2016
    |by Pat McKeough
    1978, 1998, 2007, 2016 or 2023...............a model is a model. Everyone has a 'model' in their head, dependent upon one's financial goals and means to arrive at that goal. The assumption of an 'investing model' of being only the stock market is 'strange'. Market investments are models of some form.
    VWINX operated by Vanguard/Wellesley is a model for a conservative investment.
    Not including taxes and inflation since its inception in 1970, the fund has a 15 year return of 6.30% and a lifetime return of 9.30%.
    @Alban Maintain reading and studying, remain curious to help with learning. All of us here are 'still' learning. As with your post, continue to ask the proper question in hopes of finding a proper answer.
    --- Strictly my opinions, of course.
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    Thanks all for the above insights!
    Kolanivak isn’t just another market pundit. As a spokesman for the investment arm of JPMorgan Chase he commands a very high stature. If size and financial influence of company or institution is considered, the advice might be seen to carry more weight and be of superior quality. One would expect advice from such a giant to move markets. Their advice feels incrementally different from that of smaller money managers like Charles Schwab, T. Rowe Price or Invesco.
    From Wikipedia: ”JPMorgan Chase & Co. is an American multinational financial services company … the largest bank in the United States and the world's largest bank by market capitalization. The firm is considered systemically important by the Financial Stability Board (which) has led to enhanced regulatory oversight …” (Wikipedia)
    Here’s an indication of the relative sizes of some financial institutions by market cap:
    J.P. Morgan Chase $418 Billion
    Bank of America $283 Billion
    Charles Schwab $150.77 Billion
    T Rowe Price $26.4 Billion
    Invesco $8.4 Billion