Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Virtus Funds liquidates four funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018593/000093041322002117/c105051_497.htm
    497 1 c105051_497.htm
    Virtus Seix Short-Term Bond Fund, Virtus Seix Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund,
    and Virtus Seix U.S. Mortgage Fund, each a series of Virtus Asset Trust
    Supplement dated December 19, 2022 to the Summary Prospectuses of the funds named above,
    Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of Virtus Asset Trust,
    each dated April 28, 2022, as supplemented
    Important Notice to Investors
    Effective December 16, 2022, each of the Virtus Seix Short-Term Bond Fund, Virtus Seix Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund and Virtus Seix U.S. Mortgage Fund (the “Funds”) was liquidated pursuant to its Plan of Liquidation. The Funds have ceased operations and are no longer available for sale. Accordingly, all references to the Funds are deleted from their Statutory Prospectus and SAI, and their Summary Prospectuses are no longer valid.
    Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    VAT 8622/ Seix STB-STMB-USM Closed (12/2022)
    Virtus Silvant Small-Cap Growth Stock Fund,
    a series of Virtus Asset Trust
    Supplement dated December 19, 2022 to the Summary Prospectus and the
    Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of Virtus Asset Trust,
    each dated April 28, 2022, as supplemented
    Important Notice to Investors
    Effective December 16, 2022, the Virtus Silvant Small-Cap Growth Stock Fund (the “Fund”) was liquidated pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation. The Fund has ceased operations and is no longer available for sale. Accordingly, all references to the Fund are deleted from its Statutory Prospectus and SAI, and its Summary Prospectus is no longer valid.
    Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and SAI for future reference.
    VAT 8622/Silvant SCG Closed (12/2022)
  • Why in the world? BHB
    To cop a line from Phantom of the Opera - ”These things do happen” ... :)
    BHP is down slightly today. Worth noting - It is down about 5% the past 5 days according to Google.
    Friday was a big quarterly options expiration date. Likely played a part.
    WSJ Article: Traders Brace for Largest Options Expiration in Two Years -
    “$4 Trillion - That’s the value of the equities underlying options contracts set to expire Friday, according to Goldman Sachs. Quarterly options expiration dates, such as today's, tend to see more activity because they tend to coincide with Wall Street's reporting dates.”
    Source: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-12-16-2022/card/traders-brace-for-largest-options-expiration-in-two-years-Zg0tj1YBlx2dqaenWqDS
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    Bet against it inverse tsla if think more downtrends
    #Tsls
    My personal opinion is that it reached oversold states, macd crossed over, and at near 2yrs low points.... Very difficult bet against it now
    Lots analyst predictions could be 200s 300s by 12 24 months. 2030 maybe near 1000 per share. Very difficult bet against best EV Company long term
    So much speculation
    **'*Forward PEG Ratio Valuation [Updated Dec 14, 2022]
    ☑️ S&P 500: 1.6
    ☑️ S&P 500 Tech: 1.8
    Tesla
    ($157/$5.52)/48 = 0.59
    $TSLA fair market PPS = 1.8 * 48 * $5.52 = $477 ~ 3x of current price
    Ref:
    https://yardeni.com/pub/spearnrevalgrpeg.pdf
    $TSLA estimate was from on YF, next 5y growth of 48%***
    Been adding LCID TSLA + chips-techs Small amt past weeks
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    If we compare SP500/SPY to equal-weight SP500/RSP, then RSP has outperformed SPY. It is probably value/cyclicals outperforming growth, and TSLA had been a noise.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SPY&compare=RSP,TSLA&id=p64563854176
  • Big disparity in YTD performance among the major indexes
    The best sector has been energy (XLE) and the worst communications (XLC; with 3 of the 4 original FANG stocks, META, GOOG/GOOGL, NFLX). This can be broadly generalized to value/cyclicals outperforming growth, or DJIA outperforming Nasdaq Comp with SP500 in the middle.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=XLE&compare=XLC,$COMPQ,$INDU,$SPX&id=p53415560272
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    Sold two mutual funds with 5% and 9% TSLA exposure, respectively. I would have sustained much more damage if I held on to them.
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    @rforno,
    Sell any fund with TSLA in its top-10 holdings, to include index funds
    I did exactly that in the beginning of this year on two funds for different reason - richly valuation. Found several substitutes without TSLA and they performed much better. I invest in my kids 529 plans which use index funds so can’t reduce that.
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    In light of the Elon Mask recent behavior, how do investors reduce their exposure to Tesla (TSLA) stock I their portfolio.
    @hank said,
    Might make an interesting topic under the “Other Investing” category. I never cease to be amazed at the extremes to which stocks and markets in general can run. A quick check on Google shows TSLA down 50% over 1 year and 62% YTD. Yikes.
    Never owned TSLA. Played with ARKK (which holds TSLA) off and on. Finally got tired of messing around with such volatile type investments. But I do remember when TSLA was widely acclaimed as an investment, including by some posters here.
    Per your question, I’m confident many funds own little or no TSLA. But index funds do own a big chunk. I’d have to check which indexes, but it is certainly in the S&P. So avoiding index funds might be a first step if one wants to avoid TSLA.
    Regards
    @Lewis Branham said,
    Relatively easy to tell which funds own most of its shares and which have the most concentrated positions, two very different things, as a small fund can have a 10% position while a large index fund can own a lot of shares and not have a big position:
    https://morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/ownership
    I think the managers who have concentrated TSLA positions have read Atlas Shrugged one too many times, believing that "genius" executives solve the world's problems while pesky employees and the government just get in the way.
    I think some of this erratic CEO behavior of late would be an immediate sale sign, but then if you read enough it's easy to see the erratic behavior and disregard for human beings was there even in the beginning. But then why does John Galt need people?
  • Barron’s Posts past year’s “Winning Record” (stock picks)
    @Observant1 @Junkster from the Barron's article:
    "Every December for the past 13 years, Barron’s has identified 10 promising stocks that could outperform the market. This year’s group had a value bent, a benefit during a year when value outperformed growth by 19 percentage points. Barron’s 10 picks did even better.
    The 10 stocks had a negative total return of 1.7% through Dec. 14, as measured from our publication date in December 2021. That’s 10 percentage points better than the S&P 500 SPX -1.11% index, which was down 12.1%, including dividends, over that span. "
    Article
  • Mid & Small
    There's a VA clone of DFAT that oddly has performed about 2% better YTD (-5.24% vs. -7.26%), 3532;% better (annualized) over three years (11.73% vs 9.08%), 1532;% better over five years (7.59% vs 5.90%), and 3/4% better over ten years (11.26% vs. 10.44%). Same underlying ER, same managers. (The ETF was originally an OEF which explains how it has a long term record.)
    You can coax some of this info out of M* by using instant X-ray and the "ticker" FVUSA001OG.
    VA: https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/funds/233203710/va-us-targeted-value-portfolio
    ETF: https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/funds/dfat/us-targeted-value-etf
    Obviously a VA will have added wrapper fees. So this isn't a suggestion to go out and buy a VA to get the VA clone. But if you do own a VA and this portfolio is available, it is worth a look.
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    @Anna, from an article in todays NY Times:
    "At a news conference on Tuesday, Damian Williams, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York, called on “any person, entity or political campaign that has received stolen customer money” to “work with us to return that money to innocent victims.”
    Federal Election Commission regulations require political campaigns and committees to give back donations that are later determined to be illegal, even if the funds have already been spent and new money needs to be raised to pay for the refunds.
    The idea behind the law “is to essentially get tainted money out of the system, even when the committees that accepted it are not at fault,” said Sean J. Cooksey, an F.E.C. commissioner."
    U.S. Scrutinizes Political Donations by Sam Bankman-Fried and Allies

    I'm glad FEC regulations stipulate that tainted funds must be returned.
    Hopefully, this process will not be too lengthy or cumbersome but I somehow doubt that will be the case.
  • Big disparity in YTD performance among the major indexes
    I can’t ever recall this wide a disparity late in a year between the Dow, down only 9.41%, and the NASDAQ, down 31.57%. (Memory might be foggy …Maybe year 2000?)
    Friday’s YTD numbers from Bloomberg:
    Dow: - 9.41%
    S&P: - 19.17%
    Russell 2000 - 21.46%
    NASDAQ: - 31.57%
  • Barron’s Posts past year’s “Winning Record” (stock picks)
    @PRESSmUP @rforno same roughly 75% in quality dividend equities (the usual suspects) amassed and added to over time, usually down times. The remainder of my portfolio consists of ETF's, BDC's and PIMCO bond funds which are used to generate the cash for those equity positions.
  • Barron’s Posts past year’s “Winning Record” (stock picks)
    @PressmUP I'm a similar style investor - I'd say I'm 85% in quality dividend equities and equity funds (mostly individual stocks, though) held for the long haul. What little FI I hold is either stuff from 40-ish years ago I was given as a child or included in some of my funds. I may hold short-term treasuries from time to time just to put idle cash away for a while, too
    I'll run numbers in another week or so, but while I'm down for 2022 as well, I've still done better than the broader indices, which is fine by me.
  • Barron’s Posts past year’s “Winning Record” (stock picks)
    Perhaps owning individual stocks is indeed not prudent for most folks, but I consider it a hobby. I picked it up from my dad who was a factory worker at Timken Roller Bearing in Canton, Ohio, yet read the Wall Street Journal every day, and bought stocks like AEP and RPM, a local firm and manufacturer of Rust-oleum. Early on, I also followed Josh Peters, ex from M* and his dividend portfolio along with his books.
    My portfolio is 58% individual stocks (about 20), and most pay dividends....largely common names like JNJ, ABBV, BMY, T, WPC (thanks @Scott from MFO for that one), AEP, PRU, AVGO, RPM, O...etc. Many I purchased while "accidental high yielders" during the Covid crash. I'll be adding during the upcoming downturn, both to individual stocks and funds.
    I'm down 9.2% this year, less than that of most funds I own, thanks to the outperformance of the individual stocks.
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    @Anna, from an article in todays NY Times:
    "At a news conference on Tuesday, Damian Williams, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York, called on “any person, entity or political campaign that has received stolen customer money” to “work with us to return that money to innocent victims.”
    Federal Election Commission regulations require political campaigns and committees to give back donations that are later determined to be illegal, even if the funds have already been spent and new money needs to be raised to pay for the refunds.
    The idea behind the law “is to essentially get tainted money out of the system, even when the committees that accepted it are not at fault,” said Sean J. Cooksey, an F.E.C. commissioner."
    U.S. Scrutinizes Political Donations by Sam Bankman-Fried and Allies
  • Barron’s Posts past year’s “Winning Record” (stock picks)
    Penny stocks used to under $1, but now under $5. One consequence of very low prices is that margin may not be available, institutions ignore those and delisting danger is high.
    FLPSX is now mid-cap (MC), not even small-cap (SC). About 35% is non-US, so it may be called Global MC Value. When Tillinghast was still an analyst starting out at Fido, there was a contest held on what kind of new fund should be introduced. Tillinghast proposed a low-price fund and that in those days was about $10. FLPSX prospectus says low-price now is $35 (on average). Elsewhere, Tillinghast or Fido have said that the idea now is to have average price around an average US stock that may be $60-70.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    The 5.5% is the projected rate if the Fed continues their path of rate hike. We are all guessing at this point. Yes, I have been checking the pricing since you brought it to our attention. Many non-callable 12 month CDs at Fidelity are yielding 4.6% at 100. Getting 4.7% yield is quite respectable. It would be nice if bond funds can provide that this year.
    It is possible that the Fed may manage to have a soft landing. For now, the treasury yield curve is still inverted as of 12/16/22, and that indicates a coming of a recession in 2023. The 26 weeks T bill is now the sweet spot.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Sven- Personally I think that 5.5% is too high for the long term. I'd like to see a number around 3.5 or 4%. On Schwab there are a large number of CDs which were originally in the 4.8 to 4.95 range, but which are now being offered at more than 100, bringing the YTM down to 4.7. That makes me wonder if the issuers are now expecting lower rates, at least for a while. Maybe they think the Fed is really going to pull this off.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Old_Joe, I have been checking them too at Fidelity. Next week I hope to see more CDs with higher rates. For next year I am positioning the cash position to have 4.5-5% total return and that is quite doable. This year the stocks and bonds are in red. Vanguard’s moderate allocation is down -15% ! Only the energy and commodity positions I have are in black but they requires careful monitoring.
    What will next year like when the Fed reaches the terminal rate, 5.0-5.5%? I do hope the inflation would settle near 4-5% range, but that is far from the 2% target.