I never liked to keep money parked and unused.
Watching for pullbacks, dollar-cost-averaging into my single stocks via the brokerage. The FUNDS in the T-IRA will have to grow on their own. Makes no sense in my situation to add new money to T-IRA now. Rearranging that money is always an option, though.
I'm going to cut back on financials PRISX after waiting probably too long for that one to produce. I bought too early. I'm considering a junk ETF. Also, AGEPX has been on my radar for a full year. Dividend-paying equities might be my best bet PRFDX.
Before making any New Year moves, here I am:
14 growth
45 blend
41 value
70 stocks, only 9 percent foreign.
25 bonds
3 cash
1 other
Financials 34%
Energy 12%
Tech. 12%
Healthcare 11%
Sadly, the war in Ukraine will continue. Inflation will indeed be sticky. Where will the terminal rate be? My utterly ignorant guess is that it might be 6.5 to 7 percent. And then they will probably exceed that. WTF do I know???
RE is less than 3% of my stuff. The plurality is in PSTL. Safe. But will it rise? i think it's suffering a knock-on effect along with the rest of the RE Market. Holding here, not adding to that one. Let the $$ I put in there PRODUCE!

"”economy slows down but also muddles along” - That’s as good a guess as any."
I sat in SUV at Walmart for 45 minutes after dropping gal pal off to exchange 70" TV. Lesson learned, don't take open boxes.
This happened Sat. 3:45 ish. LOTs of shoppers , parking lot about 75% or more full.
Point taken , Christmas pushing economy at this time. After New Years salute, I'm thinking economy to slow way down ! Trucker says it's getting harder to find loads.
As of this time I'm looking at some sales come Monday , with CD's & T Bills being bought.
Going further out on maturities 12,18,24 months.
FWIW, Derf

Hi sir been trading FXI since 2017in and out positions and sold most of it in June 2022 (buy high sell low lol). Have added back more last 4 5 wks. I Think it's like sp500 for China and maybe very good imho hold long terms. Ever since Xi decided to open more and restrict less covid its been uptrend, I think it may go up another 8-15% by next 12 months but lots speculation, definitely a long term hold for us. Friend say China and India Vietnam could be very good long terms
We also have YINN 3x China bull etf but very agressive, we been selling weekly puts w $yinn just get premium and very volatile with high daily trades volumes.

I'm currently allocated as per below
- Alts: 55%
- US Stocks: 13%
- Intl Stocks: 3%
- US Bonds: 24%
- Cash: 5%
In 2023, I expect to get cash closer to 10% and Alts closer to 50% Good luck to all

I’ll be sticking with the same allocation model I’ve used all this year. By design it allows for adding or reducing risk when it seems appropriate: 45% Alts / 20-25% Growth / 20-25% Income / 8-12% Speculative
Am still overweighted on the growth part at 24.5%. Income (a mix of bond funds / cash) is on the low end at 20%. Earlier in the year I took income all the way down to 16-17% and growth up to around 27%. Did that to pick off some attractive prices when the DJI was flirting with 28,000.
Don’t do CDs. Like what little cash I hold to be liquid so can play around with it. As far as the Alt segment goes, it’s quite stable (currently 4 funds). Rarely mess with it. The Spec allocation is quite diversified at present and serves as a bit of a hedge against big moves in equities. It includes among other things: a small hold on inverse SPDN to dampen volatility; a bit of GLTR; some CCOR - which is an intriguing fund. If it had a longer track record I’d hold a bigger chunk.
-
PS - As noted a few days ago in the “Buy / Sell” thread, I did unload 2 significant equity holdings recently and used the proceeds to fund CVSIX which became part of the Alt sleeve. Mixed reasons for that move. One of the equities had had a good run this year and didn’t want to press my luck. At the same time, income-bearing investments - like CVSIX holds - are now more attractive than they were 6 months to a year ago owing to much higher prevailing interest rates. Some of the resultant risk reduction relates to perceived distribution needs going into 2023. I realize it’s unorthodox, but the 2 equities sold had previously been included in my “Alt” sleeve. So the move didn’t significantly alter my model allocation.

Don't forget about major recessions, jobs loss, unstable banking systems due Feds potential over corrections, lots folks won't be able to pay for houses and cars along w job loss (triple whammy).... I think Ukraine Russian issues are priced in unless nuclear arsenals are used. Oil Xle would be worst asset to hold going forward next 12 18 months due to high rates. US dollars, Ust be very careful, it's too high now w high RSI ( except ust 10 yrs or 20yrs extremely cheap).
We are still young and don't know how to time market well. Could be stagnation for 12 24 months (look at high rates high inflation, high unemployment environments in 1990s downturns stagnation conditions for quite a long time).
We Keep buying stocks while cheap hope hold for 15 20 yrs til retirement hopeful 3x by then 2035. Been dca into growth, techs stocks, emergent markets, US Sp500, and 401k still at 90/10 distributions.
Unless near retirement would be in lots Corp Bonds ust cash cd and less riskier assets, maybe 40% stocks. Friend 70 yo has 70% stocks unclear why but that her monies. Mama retired portfolios 70s% fixed asset and safe vehicles, she loss about 17% last 12 months but made some back. Biggest holders: Fidelity 2015 tdf, fbnd, and lots Corp bonds
Happy holidays

Curious as to how folks are positioning their portfolios going into the New Year.
I remain cautious as always, top down as follows:
Tbill/Note/CD laddered out to 1 month thru 5 years (~80-85% of portfolio)
AMEX money market online savings
PMEFX
PVCMX
FORTX (Abraham Fortress Fund, Abraham Salem runs the fund...rain maker...now avail at Schwab)
SVARX (thinking that high yield bonds might do very well by end of year 23'?)
PCAFX (Prospector Capital Appreciation, experienced fund mgr's)
Thoughts: I believe inflation will be sticky, balance sheet tightening continues, Ukraine/Russia war continues, housing market muddles along, does not collapse, economy slows down but also muddles along, of course all that being said I have no idea and sure hope things get better! I'll leave my political thoughts off this post as prolly better that way, just to keep the focus on investing.
Best,
Baseball Fan

@AndyJ,
Thanks for the webcast info!
Felix Zulauf is a former long-time member of Barron's Roundtable.
IIRC, Mr. Zulauf was always bearish in the Roundtable sessions.
He states his predictions in the current issue of Barron's.
No surprise - he's rather pessimistic.
Link

According to Mr. Hyman...
The economy is slowing, inflation is coming down, and the Fed has done a good part of its work.
Housing is showing the most weakness. Trucking survey (highest correlation with GDP of any single sector) is near recessionary levels. PMI indexes are another favorite indicator - 46 reading in November is well below past decade. However, the labor market is still realtively strong. Concerned about money supply contracting, quantative tightening (QT), inverted yield curve. If QT is taken into account, fed funds rate is 6% not 4%.
Appropriate path for Fed would be 25 bps increase in December then wait and see.
There has never been a tightening cycle without a shock or crisis - no exceptions.

09 december, 2022. ed hyman.

Hi Sir @crash
Pls look at TMF 12 24 months chart
Ust 10 yrs could be few yrs hold imho
If have lots fry powder You may consider buying bunch now like 1000 shares then start selling little once get to 20, 25, 30 etc....

More ideas this week, 12/10/22.
TAXES and GIVING. The ESTATE exemption of $12.06/$24.12 million (single/joint) is for super-wealthy, but there are many others things that ordinary investors can do. ANNUAL gift EXEMPTION is $16K/yr/person ($17K in 2023) to avoid filing Form 709 (that is tricky but can also be done for larger gifts). Since 2018, standard deduction has been high (90% now just take standard deduction), so consider BUNCHING up charitable contributions (including large DAF contributions), Roth Conversions and other deductions for an itemizing-year. Older folks (70+) can use QCDs that also count for RMDs (72+). This has been a bad year but consider donating long-held APPRECIATED securities or those with rare profits in 2022 (energy). BEWARE that some relaxations for charitable contributions for 2020-21 have expired and don’t apply in 2022.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chairty-taxes-giving-strategies-51670454584?mod=past_editions
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/374/barron-december-12-2022-2

I thought Louis Rukeyser’s 1980 hair style (beginning at the 8:45 mark) was by far the most fascinating aspect.
Both the early guests were good. Worth a second viewing. First good show in a while. If memory serves correct … one recent program dealt solely with environmental investing and another featured re-runs of earlier guest appearances.

Most sites have RSI default as 14 but it can be adjusted. In daily view, it is 14 days, in weekly view 14 weeks, in monthly view 14 months. Strength or weakness in 14 periods can only tell so much.
There is also a different RSI that is company or fund vs SP500.

Or
https://fortune.com/2022/12/07/how-bad-recession-economist-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stock-market-forecast/
Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini says a severe recession will cause stocks to drop 25%—and warns zombie companies are in danger
Even if the U.S. economy experiences only a “short and shallow” recession, “Dr. Doom” sees stocks falling another 15%.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2022/12/08/analysts-predictions-about-ai-in-2023/?sh=32244c047179
Nobody knows
Best guess maybe keep selling weekly or 14d Spy puts 10% lowered stock prices collect small weekly premiums

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-market-5000-projection-economy-recession-sp500-2022-12
Spy/ stocks +26% next 12 months?!
Feds ease off pedals, stocks so low recently, maybe forecasted bad Er for 2023, maybe short recession ( /could be priced in)/ poor unemployment....
Maybe lots speculation but history showed
markets already taken off 1/2 ways through major past recessions
Analysts different firms recent analysis states could be 3700 - 4500 4600 end Dec 2023
Get ready

5 year chart
Strictly from a technical view over 5 years, this product appears to be near fully priced at this time. A RSI of 30 and below is a technical level that may be considered near or at 'oversold'; while a RSI of 70 and greater may be considered as at or near 'overbought'. AXA is at 65.16 RSI, which may be considered near the top of its technical price range at this time; that there may not be much more upward movement remaining.
Of course, other market circumstances or special circumstances for this company must be taken into consideration; that may nullify technical criteria.

Friday, slightly higher monthly Producer Price Index and Core PPI dinged yields to move a bit higher; although the 12 month PPI's trend continues to move lower. Survey says, inflation expectations lowest since 2021 .......only a survey of humans, Univ. of Michigan consumer data and economists, too; .....absorb the information with caution. Most bond sector prices were positive for the week, until Friday; when prices had the largest daily move down.
As with all investing, a lot of moving parts affecting a variety of shorter term movements. For me, the hardest decisions are attempting to discover bottoms along the way and try to determine the 'why's. Why is a particular sector 'oversold', or 'overbought'; and how long will this last. Age old questions, eh?
Perhaps the recent (since October 25) price strength in the longer duration bond areas is a prelude of what is to come; if/when there is a FED induced recession, and/or the need to again back down on yield increases. Normal expectations, IMO; although the market place(s) remain in a 'this time is different' financial mode. AND next week brings CPI numbers and FED speak on Wednesday.
And if you were wonding, but hadn't taken a peek; both of the below links also have various internal tabs for other data.
Long duration bull and bear bond etf's, list 1
Long duration bonds, list/view 2
---Several selected bond fund returns since October 25.
NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 5- December 9, 2022
--- AGG = -.5% / -11.6% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / -1.31% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.11% / -3.9% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.51% / -8.8% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.84% / -13.5% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -1.6% / -10.9% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- STPZ = -.85% / -4.3% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -2.8% / -27.3% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -.71% / -26.8% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -.4% / -33.3% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -.39% / -34.8% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +.8% / +70% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -2.4% / -66% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
--- BAGIX = -.31% / -12.3% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
*** Other, for reference:
--- HYG = -.69% / -9.8% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- LQD = -.51% / -15.5% (corp. bonds, various quality)
--- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield remains stagnate again for this past week, versus the past six months.

Remain curious,
Catch

If we're talking about old times and good friends, it used to be that "You have a friend at Chase Manhattan." Bankers Trust responded to Chase's ad campaign:

IF YOU WANT A FRIEND GO BUY A DOG.
YOU’LL FIND A BANKER AT BANKERS TRUST.

https://www.campaignlive.com/article/advertising-not-friend/1429500
That's more what I want out of a bank. To each their own.

I was happy with Washington Mutual (WaMu) for a number of years.
They had many branches close to my home, their personnel were friendly, and customer service was great.
Under Kerry Killinger in the 90s, WaMu expanded from 84 branches in 1991 to 248 in 1995.
The following decade Washington Mutual became the country's largest savings-and-loan bank
and also the largest mortgage originator. Subprime loans accounted for some of this rapid growth.
When the subprime lending crisis culminated, the Office of Thrift Management seized the bank on 09/25/2008.
Washington Mutual was sold to JPMorgan Chase hours later. This was the largest bank failure in U.S. history.
I was not pleased with JPMorgan Chase.
They were much more "corporate" than WaMu.
Their lobbies felt sterile and their associates were impersonal.
I switched to a local credit union in 2010 and haven't looked back.
Most of my banking is conducted online with other financial institutions
but it's nice to have an option with a nearby physical presence.
When a medallion signature guarantee was needed to transfer my Roth IRA a few years ago,
the credit union provided a convenient avenue to obtain this guarantee.