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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    @MikeM- Yes, I agree with you regarding a short-term CD, say a year or less. If called, no big deal. When I'm looking at Schwab, I filter for terms of 5 years and non-callable, just to narrow the list down a little. You still have to be careful that the price is 100, though.
  • Alger Weatherbie Enduring Growth Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3521/000119312522299383/d410645d497.htm
    497 1 d410645d497.htm ALGER WEATHERBIE ENDURING GROWTH FUND - CLASS A,C,I,Y,Z
    THE ALGER FUNDS
    Alger Weatherbie Enduring Growth Fund
    Supplement dated December 6, 2022, to the
    Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and SAI of the Fund
    dated December 17, 2021, as amended and supplemented to date
    The Board of Trustees of The Alger Funds (the “Trust”) has approved the liquidation of Alger Weatherbie Enduring Growth Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust, effective on or about March 31, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). Before the Liquidation Date, and at the discretion of Fred Alger Management, LLC, the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the Fund will cease to pursue its investment objective and policies. The liquidation of the Fund may result in one or more taxable events for shareholders subject to federal income tax.
    Accordingly, effective on or about January 6, 2023 (the “Closing Date”), the Fund will be closed to further investment, excluding reinvestment of any dividends and distributions.
    The liquidation will occur without the imposition of any sales charge, fee or other charge. Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund into the same class of shares of another fund in The Alger Family of Funds prior to the Liquidation Date without the imposition of any sales charge, fee or other charge. The liquidation or an exchange may be a taxable event. Investors are urged to consult their own tax advisers as to the federal, state and local tax consequences of the liquidation or an exchange.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    They go fast! Last time I heard from you on another issue and they were just about all gone.
    Correction. Just found 18 months noncallable CD from UBS bank, (DSMC60820) yielding 4.85%; asking price at 100.00.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    Hi Mike- At this moment I don't see the 5.08, or anything greater than 4.95 callable.
    In non-callable, the best is 4.85. Don't forget to check the actual purchase price- if it's anything over 100% the actual return will be lower than shown.
    For example, there's a Toyota Finl Savings 4.9% CD 12/02/2024, but the actual price asked is 101.13600. That lowers the actual return to 4.295%.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    Just bought 18 mth CD @ 4.85 at Schwab. That's about the best that I could find there.
    That's odd @Old_Joe, At this minute I see 18mo at Schwab at 5.08%, 1yr @ 4.95%, both from JP Morgan Chase. They were there this morning too as 'new issues'.
  • December 2022 commentary is now posted
    From "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-HPRACTICE-108/html/GPO-HPRACTICE-108-35.htm" (referenced above, by Yogi)
    Article I, section 2 of the Constitution directs that the House
    choose its Speaker and other officers. The Speaker is the only House
    officer who traditionally has been chosen from the sitting membership
    of the House. Manual Sec. 26. The Constitution does not limit his
    selection from among that class
    , but the practice has been followed
    invariably.
    This would seem to suggest that it's at least theoretically possible under the Constitution for a non-member to be elected as speaker. It sheds no light at all on Mark's fascinating questions.
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    We had some discussed in another tread on small cap funds. Mainly it focused on actively a managed OEFs.
    Each recession is different. In 2008’s drawdown, all funds went down considerably. In 2000-2002 tech bubble, there were some funds that survived. Value funds in particular smaller caps outshined the growth counterparts by a sizable margins. Back then Fidelity low priced stock fund, FLPSX, a mid-cap value fund did well for two years, then it lost 6% in 2002. Considering other funds were down in excess of 50% in that 3 years period, FLPSX did well. Fast forward 20 year, FLPSX is quite different with larger names, large oversea exposure, large asset base, and managed by a team of managers. Joel Tillinghast is retiring in 2023.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FLPSX/performance?p=FLPSX
    How will small caps perform next year? No one really know for sure and that ought to depend on how severe the recession will be.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    Well done! No luck at Fidelity. Will pick up more T bills after FOMC meeting on Dec 14-15th. Yields will be higher than the current ones with another rate hike (50 bps most likely).
    Saw few CDs yielding over 5% over the weekend at Vanguard, but they were for OH and AL residence only. MFO has the most updated CD rates.
  • December 2022 commentary is now posted
    House Speaker is a member of the House by tradition but he/she doesn't have to be. Speaker has a tie-breaking vote.
    On the other hand, Speaker Pro Tempore must be a member.
    https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-HPRACTICE-108/html/GPO-HPRACTICE-108-35.htm
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    Just bought 18 mth CD @ 4.85 at Schwab. That's about the best that I could find there.
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    @Lewis
    Forecasting, having and using cash reserves + line of credit to prevent a run on the bank is a common practice amongst seasoned managers.
    Managers who have spent a decade or more to build a reputation will "generally" not resort to ethically questionable practices at the risk of the fund blowing up. You've described a few BDC's taking a 50% haircut but this is anecdotal stuff as opposed to the hard 4 bips and $1.2B loss numbers estimated (as an overall market aggregate) in the article link you provided.
    Any financial investment outside of FDIC guaranteed CD's and US Govt guaranteed bonds can blow up. During the last crisis some MM funds broke the buck which was deemed unthinkable.
    The ghost of Bernie can emerge anytime and anywhere and a dozen or more things can go wrong outside of CD/USG bonds.
    Should all of that result in one investing only in the guaranteed stuff? Personal to everyone of course and clearly you and I have different views on this.
    Investing beyond the guaranteed stuff entails risk of partial or full loss even if the auditors are one of the Big 4. It comes down to investing based on an individual assessment of the risk/return tradeoffs.
  • AQR International Equity Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444822/000119312522299058/d312974d497.htm
    497 1 d312974d497.htm AQR FUNDS
    AQR FUNDS
    Supplement dated December 6, 2022 (“Supplement”)
    to the Class I Shares, Class N Shares and Class R6 Shares
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information, each dated January 29, 2022, as
    amended, of the AQR International Equity Fund (the “Fund”)
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information. Please review this important information carefully. You may obtain copies of the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling (866) 290-2688, or by writing to AQR Funds, P.O. Box 2248, Denver, CO 80201-2248.
    At a meeting held on December 6, 2022, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of AQR Funds (the “Trust”) approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund. Among other things, the Fund was not viable on an ongoing basis. Accordingly, effective 4:00 P.M. (Eastern time) on January 4, 2023, the Fund will no longer accept orders from new investors or existing shareholders to purchase Fund shares.
    On or about January 4, 2023, AQR Capital Management, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, intends to begin liquidating the Fund’s assets in an orderly manner in advance of the Liquidation Date (as defined below). Proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund’s assets will be held in cash and similar instruments pending distribution to shareholders. As a result, the Fund may deviate from its investment strategies and policies and cease to pursue its investment objective. The Fund may incur transaction costs from liquidating portfolio holdings and performance may be adversely affected from holding cash and similar instruments.
    The Fund has declared a dividend to all holders of record on January 20, 2023 (the “Record Date”) consisting of any undistributed income and capital gains (net of available capital loss carryovers). On or about January 27, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), the Fund will make a liquidating distribution of its remaining assets proportionately to any shareholders holding shares on the Liquidation Date. Shareholders may redeem their Fund shares or exchange their shares into shares of another series of AQR Funds, subject to any restrictions in the Fund’s Prospectus, at any time prior to the Liquidation Date.
    The liquidation of the Fund is expected to have tax consequences for a taxable shareholder. Any final capital gain dividend will be treated as long-term capital gain, and any final income dividend will be taxable as ordinary income, or as qualified dividend income to the extent of the Fund’s income that so qualifies (which is taxed at the same preferential tax rate as long- term capital gain). The Fund’s final liquidating distribution will result in capital gain or loss to the receiving shareholder. Shareholders should consult their tax advisors concerning their tax situation and the impact of the liquidation and/or exchanging to a different fund has on their tax situation.
    We appreciate your investment in the AQR Funds. For more information, please contact the Trust at (866) 290-2688.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR YOUR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Always eager to read what @rforno is buying or selling. :)
    Personally ….
    - I’ve sold off 2 of my 3 largest equity holdings in recent weeks. Took a nice profit on the global reinsurer I’d held most of the year. Break-even, or a slight loss, on a major bank. Kept the large international food conglomerate, but sold off a little. It’s about break-even since buying early in the year but has been making up lost ground as the dollar has begun to weaken.
    - Unloaded 100% of a significant hold in ABRZX. I was very wrong in my previous positive appraisal of that fund - especially its ability to hold up during down markets. Moved the same sum into an old favorite TRRIX. For that matter, both of the afore mentioned funds have stunk up the joint pretty good this year. But the latter’s .49% ER takes away some of the stench. (ABRZX charges 1.37%).
    - Added CVSIX to my “Alternative” sleeve with $$ from the stock sales. The thinking here is that with now higher prevailing interest rates, it’s a decent place to hide. Also, some positive commentary on convertible bonds in a recent Barron’s.
    - I added 2 small spec positions yesterday. Each represents only 1% of my total invested assets: BCAT & GUG. They caught my attention when reading Randall Forsyth’s always fine Barron’s column over the weekend. Frankly, I’ve had no prior experience with closed-end funds. So am viewing this small venture as mostly a learning experience. (And folks may know that I enjoy dumpster diving.)
    -
    Here’s the passage referenced from this week’s Barron’s (Randall Forsyth).
    “Another bargain is a relatively new type of closed-end fund, which was supposed to avoid sinking to a big discount by going public at net asset value, rather than at a premium, as is usual. Nevertheless, some of these funds have succumbed, including ones from marquee-name portfolio managers such as BlackRock and Guggenheim …. One is BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust (BCAT), which yields 8.52% and trades at a wide 15.93% discount to NAV. The other is the Guggenheim Active Allocation fund (GUG). It yields 10.16% and is quoted at a 12.16% discount. It's no disgrace to delve into offbeat corners to pick up bargains.”
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    These vehicles are no where near 6.6% yet, but who knows in 2023. You could throw in CD's with these options too. 1 year CD at Schwab is inching it's way to 5% (4.95).
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    @StayCalm You are right. I was referring to another interval fund— CCFLX—run by the same manager Cliffwater. But the issue regarding pricing for private securities for both funds is the same. The question comes down to whether securities are mark-to-market or does the manager use some “fair value” estimation: https://investopedia.com/terms/m/marktomarket.asp
    I can say the disparity in valuation between what the market thinks the value of illiquid low credit quality securities is versus the managers’ private assessment of that value has been far greater than 0.04% during periods of stress. I’ve witnessed this phenomenon firsthand with the disparity between the public market value of BDCs that invest in illiquid private floating rate loans and the BDCs estimate of that valuation. I’ve seen discounts as high as 50% in bad periods.
    The distinction matters because if a loan has a face value of $100 million and the manager has a 2% management fee, they collect $2 million in fees on that loan. But if they marked it down to $50 million during a period of public market distress, they only collect a $1 million fee. So, there is an inherent conflict of interest favoring a more optimistic outlook than the market regarding portfolio value to collect more fees.
    What I’ve seen happen in cases where the market is proven right— that the underlying portfolio of credits is impaired and should be marked down—is the manager does this very slowly. Each quarter there is a gradual reduction in NAV that is sadly predictable. This way the manager can keep collecting fees on an inflated portfolio value. This is the “auto correlation” the Advisor Perspectives article was talking about. Because of the “returns smoothing” the first mover who gets out as soon as there is a markdown gets a better return than they deserve as the portfolio should have been marked down earlier. Meanwhile, the person who holds on gets a worse return than they deserve.
    In the open end mutual fund space some of these overly optimistic pricings of illiquid securities have proven disastrous where the manager doesn’t mark down the portfolio but suddenly when facing redemptions has to sell those illiquid securities and accept what the market really thinks the portfolio is worth. Then you see these huge markdowns in one or two days. Interval funds don’t have that forced selling issue nearly as much. Yet I still think they should mark their portfolios appropriately during volatile periods. That completely smooth upward sloping line for returns no matter what public market conditions are does not reflect reality.
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    Ty
    Small cap extremely cheap
    Maybe coil sideways or more upswings next few months waiting Feds direction
    We been trading buy more IWM /buy more IWM recently, rsi not bad mid 50s, macd holding stable Perhaps more uptrends
    We also trade weekly TNA put sales 15% strike prices lowered Delta, collect small premiums
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    Source: Barrons
    "Small-caps outperformed during recessions in the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Federal Reserve was fighting high inflation, as it is now. The group has higher proportional exposure than large-caps to inflation beneficiaries, like energy. It’s also more domestic and more tied to capital spending, which is a plus if U.S.-based manufacturers continue moving factories home. But small companies generally have less financial flexibility than large ones, which is a negative if borrowing rates stay elevated.
    One way for investors to add small- cap exposure is with a low-fee index fund like the iShares Russell 2000IWM –2.75% exchange-traded fund (ticker: IWM). Then again, switching indexes might be an upgrade. The S&P SmallCap 600SP600EQ –2.60% index has outperformed the Russell 2000 index by more than a percentage point a year over the past five, 10, and 20 years, and has generally been less volatile. The biggest reason: S&P uses a profitability screen to admit index members. SPDR S&P 600 Small CapSLY –2.81% ETF (SLY) is one fund option there.
    If a profitability screen helps, how about a value tilt? The aforementioned indexes weight small-caps by market cap. Asset manager Research Affiliates has an index that weights them by fundamental measures of value like sales, cash flow, and dividends. Investors can buy in through Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company Index ETF (FNDA). It’s more expensive than the other funds, but still cheap, with yearly expenses of 0.25%. Since inception in 2013, the fund has returned 7.4% a year, beating the Russell 2000 by nearly a point through Sept. 30."
    "For actively managed funds that are open to new money, Columbia Small Cap Value II (NSVAX) and Wasatch Core Growth (WGROX) get high marks from Morningstar. Each costs a little more than 1% a year and has beaten its category by about a point a year over the past decade."
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    Hickam FCU, Oahu:
    new money: $5k minimum, rate of 4.25%
    old money: 4.00%. Also $5k minimum.
    ELEVEN MONTHS.
    https://www.hickamfcu.org/
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    The stale pricing issue I am describing is not necessarily particular to this fund but a universal one that is particularly relevant though with private funds that don’t price every day. Most corporate debt funds don’t have pricing that reflects market reality.
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3244862
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2978284
    https://advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/09/25/stale-pricing-and-the-risk-to-bond-fund-investors
    I don’t care how skilled of a bank loan manager or high yield bond fund manager one is, in March of 2020 when the whole world was falling apart, there was no way a high risk credit manager could liquidate their portfolios with only a 2% haircut in that environment. To say the portfolio’s liquidation value only fell 2% then is unrealistic.
    As for my largest position, cash remains it.