When I can find a CD for 5% or more, then I'll bite.

Is this what is meant by "eating one's words"? :-)
7 month certificate. Andrews Federal Credit Union. Membership open via American Consumer Council ($8) if you don't meet any of the other eligibility options. Backed by NCUA.

i'm wondering if now isn't a great time to buy junk bonds that are not short-duration? they've been severely whacked down low. TUHYX is yielding over 7% but the share price is in the toilet. still, junk bonds tend to do well when equities do, right? Over the past couple of days, TUHYX has had a lovely small-ish bump-up. You did well, protecting your money at that River Park fund.
So, how much more do you need to preserve, as opposed to growing your portfolio? Changing conditions will require that we all respond. Buy & Hold is dead. I'm 25% in bonds, earning dividends I don't yet need, thankfully. The fact I do not need the monthly divs is a reflection of the fact that I can AFFORD to keep a big slug in equities, where it can grow.
When I can find a CD for 5% or more, then I'll bite. My T-IRA year-end amalgamated estimated divs and cap gains are over 4%, and this has been a bad year. i won't complain. Markets WILL rebound at some point, and I certainly don't want to cut myself off at the knees from the prospect of any outsized profits by stashing too much in bond funds or treasuries. Or bank accounts. I've been much more fortunate in the brokerage account this year, compared to last year. Still a few hundred dollars to get me back to even-steven, there.
those other instruments with the FDIC insurance or full faith and credit of the US gov't might serve you better than I judge they would me.

Hello,
I am currenlty invested in RPHIX (with the majority of the funds) to see how the market behaves. However, I galnced at the YTD performance, it is about 2%, it is perfect for a mutual fund this year, but I was thinking into transitioning to short term Treasuries, yielding 4% and even shorted term CDs, up to 3 months (maybe 6 months with the Treasuries).
You can even find MMA bank accounts with 3.85%.
What are your thoughts, assuming the Fed will continue to raise/keep rates until early next year modestly?

Sold COTZX; used 35% for more VDADX and kept the rest as cash until the next treasury auction for 3,6,12 month purchases.

@catch22 The poot-breath has already been holding us all hostage. Economically, politically. The West's response has been underwhelming already in support of Ukraine.
https://sandefur.typepad.com/freespace/2009/06/thanksgiving-1956-by-ee-cummings.html
Sure: collect all the evidence, get the ducks all in a row. Yogi Berra would say: "I got two words for you: Gotta haveit."
But the territorial offense is already clear, into Poland. Not Wermacht this time, but missiles. The territorial integrity of a NATO member has been breached. It wouldn't have happened if the Poot-brain had not already unjustifiably invaded a next-door, friendly country.
Collect the facts. Make the hard decisions. Just, let's not pretend that those Polish deaths happened in a vacuum. The deciders should be leaning-into THAT fact.
One by one, European countries joined the fight that became WWI. And The Kaiser, the King and the Tsar were all blood relatives! We don't want THAT. Any non-military strategy will be porous, because we're not going to get every other country in the world to treat Russia the same way South Africa was sidelined on account of apartheid. And American hegemony has already been declining for decades. I can think of a few angles that I've heard nothing about yet in the news...
My characterization is not by definition a knee-jerk, eh?

This from AP:

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A Russian missile barrage on the Ukrainian power grid sent the war spilling over into neighboring countries Tuesday, hitting NATO member Poland and cutting electricity to much of Moldova.
The strikes plunged much of Ukraine into darkness and drew defiance from President Volodymr Zelenskyy, who shook his fist and declared: “We will survive everything.”
It was Russia’s biggest barrage yet, and some of the missiles crossed into Poland, where two people were killed, according to a U.S. official. It marked the first time in the war that Russian weapons have come down on a NATO country.
Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information from a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation.
A second person confirmed that apparent Russian missiles struck a site in Poland about 15 miles from the Ukrainian border.

PPI (wholesale) came below expectations at 8.0% y-o-y. Stock futures like the news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/wholesale-prices-rose-0point2percent-in-october-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html

Perhaps a nicer equity market hereTuesday, as of 12:40am EST, Novermber 15; the Asian area is fairly happy. See here.
Good evening.

+1.

Perhaps a nicer equity market hereTuesday, as of 12:40am EST, Novermber 15; the Asian area is fairly happy. See here.
Good evening.

@catch22, use SharpCharts to set dates. I have just used the default 1 yr.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=TMF&compare=TBT&id=p77597575994

@Sven et al
This chart is TBT (bond bear, yields going higher etf) vs TMF (bond bull, yields going lower etf). For whatever reason, the chart will not allow me to set the dates I want to use.
So, at the chart bottom where the number of chart days is shown (253 days)....double click the days and then type in 723 and then ENTER. This will take the chart to the beginning of 2020 and just before the melt in the early spring of 2020.
You'll be able to readily view when the FED had to unload on rates to stop the Covid market melt and the action of TMF. In the shorter term not shown by this chart, those who were/are immaculate traders have been able to provide large profits with trading only between TMF and TBT.

Hi @Sven et al
The current % data is two weeks after the first data reported in the October 24- October 28 period of this thread. As the current large price percent gains are likely mostly reflected from a more favorable CPI report (FED backing off???), which caused yields to move down a lot within a short time frame.
Yield % changes last week:
--- 30 year = -6.5%
--- 10 year = -7.3%
--- 5 year = -7.5%
--- 1 year = -3.3%
SO, for me; I would/will watch price changes in the Gov't issues in the list; if it was understood/known/announced that the FED was slowing down rate increases.
AND looking at the moves from last week, the top gainers were the longer duration issues.....10 years +. And if one has some sleepy money laying about, you could take a walk on the wild side and go for TMF. This etf will fly high.......although for how long would not be known and the investment would need to be carefully watched.
Remain curious,
Catch

"Longer term CD's near 5% might come back, but for now it seems questionable."
Not quite 5%, but KS State Bank is offering 3-, 4-, 5-, and 7-year CDs with 4.99% APY.
https://www.ksstate.bank/resources/deposit-rates/
Interest compounds and pays quarterly. Interest can be deposited to another account (rather than reinvested) only if account is opened at one of their seven Kansas locations.
Early withdrawal penalties range from 12 months interest (3-year CD), to 15 months (4-year CD) and 18 months (5- or 7-year CD).
https://www.ksstate.bank/globalassets/depositaccountdisclosure.pdf

@JD_co: Thanks for keeping on top of this. Thanks to you last week I was able to get some of the last non-callable 9s and 9.5s.
OJ

At Fido, no new non-callable CDs over 18 months so far. If any do pop up, I'm guessing they sell out within minutes.
The banks have scurried away like cockroaches after you've turned on the lights. And somebody flicked that giant light switch last week (CPI report reaction).
Longer term CD's near 5% might come back, but for now it seems questionable.

I am less sure this is just about crypto, but more about simple fraud.
it seems SBF used customers assets in the non-US subsidiary as margin for shaky investments in FTT etc, and then CZ pulled the plug on FTT but dumping his entire position. CZ may not have known that FTX and Alameda was so heavily margined against customer's assets, but found out when SBF came begging for rescue.
US security laws and regulations prevent brokerages from using customer's assets for their own purposes, so it is unlikely without a non-US subsidiary, this would have blown up so spectacularly.
I had a friend whose son had "a couple of million dollars worth " in Bitcoin on a thumb drive locked in a safe deposit box when Bitcoin was $15000 in 2018. He said the kid was sure it would soon hit $200,000 a "coin" and they could buy a nice yacht.
I never heard if the kid sold it.

" complications in bankruptcy or lawsuits."
Federal protection extends only to bankruptcy proceedings, not to creditor lawsuits. To understand this, it helps to see where protections come from.
Protection of money in employer sponsored plans comes from ERISA, which has a virtually ironclad antialienation provision. That means that you cannot pledge or have taken from you any money within the retirement plan for almost any reason.
Protection of rollover money in an IRA comes from the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA). As one might gather from its name, this protection applies only if you declare bankruptcy. It doesn't protect IRAs in "regular" creditor lawsuits.
For "lawyerly type" readers, here's a remarkably clear and concise page (just 4 paragraphs plus a couple more sentences) from a law firm saying much the same thing.

Outside of bankruptcy, traditional contributory IRAs and Roth IRAs and inherited IRAs, have protection only under state law.

https://www.rosenblattlawfirm.com/blog-post/creditor-protection-of-retirement-plan-assets/
(The bankruptcy protection applies to all forms of IRAs, not just T-IRAs.)
With respect to keeping rollover money segregated for bankruptcy protection, it may help but it isn't a cure-all. "Rollover IRA" is just a label for convenience. One can add contributory money to a "rollover IRA" without the IRA custodian removing that label. So if a creditor comes after your assets, it might still challenge your assertion that the rollover IRA contains only rollover money.

A bit late, but if you want to look at some prior week numbers. Various contributors here have expressed reasons for lower yields last week. Lower CPI may have been largest push for lower yields, but; not unlike the markets in general, the bond area will remain in FLUX. The FED will play with the numbers to choose their path going forward, relative to rate increases.
MANY bond areas had large one week positive pricing moves, so one made money in the pricing area.
NOTE: I've kept the prior dated report in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
For the WEEK/YTD, November 7- November 11, 2022
--- AGG = + 2.3% / -13.9% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = + .024% / -1.9% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.69% / -4.2% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = + 1.78% / -9.8% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = + 2.7% / -15.4% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = + 1.7% / -12.7% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- STPZ = + ,64% / -4.5% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = + 4.3% / -32% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = + 3.9% / -33% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = + 4.8% / -41% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = + 4.6% / -43% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = - 7.6% / +103% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = + 11.3% / -74% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
--- BAGIX = + 2,26% / -14.9% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
*** Other, for reference:
--- HYG = + 2.13% / -10.9% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- LQD = + 5.4% / -19.1% (corp. bonds, various quality)
--- FZDXX = 3.75% yield, Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
Remain curious,
Catch

david rosenberg does not sound optimistic.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/david-rosenberg-says-thursday-s-market-rally-will-be-a-brief-affair-1.1844588

Be careful when crypto is being offering in your 401(k) plan.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12153