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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    I was personally affected when in 2015 Prospect Medical Holdings ( owned by Leonard Green a PE firm) bought our CT hospital after two previous publicly traded companies "suitors" ( hoping to buy both hospitals in town) had been chased off by the left wing Democratic Governor. The hospital was close to going under.
    The two previous offers were to build an entirely new hospital and combine both institutions, so they would not longer undercut each other in our small city. These offers were far superior and could have been much better monitored because they involved public companies and a pension fund. Unfortunately, the CT governor was beholden to our hospital union and threw up all sorts of crazy conditions, so they backed out.
    We got all sorts of promises about capital infusions etc from Prospect but none materialized.
    We sold our practice to the hospital/Prospect in 2018. At the physician level Prospect was fairly benign, although they refused to buy any new equipment like scanners and computers. I retired, in 2019 after 40 years of practice that I loved, because the electronic medical record required me to work to 9PM just entering data. They refused to pay $20 an hour to hire a scribe to help me. It was apparently far more efficient to make a physician do the work of a clerk. Both of my replacements have quit in less than a year.
    Since then, Leonard Green had Prospect to borrow $1.2 Billion in 2019. Prospect paid Green and the chief executive a $675 million dollar dividend. Prospect CEO alone got $90 million. To pay the loan back, Prospect sold all their hospitals to Medical Properties Trust (MPW) and then leased them back. By 2021 they had stop paying rent, and MPW stock is down to $8 from $25.
    Two Prospect hospitals in Delaware ( one the only source of care for 80,000 people I think) and three in Texas have closed completely. Rhode Island AG refused to let them sell the two there until they put up $80 million in escrow.
    MPW is unloading the CT hospitals to Yale New Haven Hospital for the amount it paid for them in 2020, because Yale doesn't want the other big CT system, Hartford Hospital to get them. The hospitals in Delaware and Texas are closed for good.
    As I have posted before, ProPublica has done an excellent series on Prospect documenting the millions Green got, but Prospect didn't have cash to buy gas for the ambulances.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/rich-investors-stripped-millions-from-a-hospital-chain-and-want-to-leave-it-behind-a-tiny-state-stands-in-their-way
    Another excellent source on the abuses of PE I have found is
    https://pestakeholder.org/
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    TNR: "Republicans also want work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Adults without children must fulfill work requirements up to the age of 56, overturning current law that has the threshold at age 49. Not only are such cuts punitive in nature, but they effectively leave people more vulnerable to precarity."
    The objective and the results are pretty clear: throw more people off these programs. The estimate in the Moody's piece shows it would "save" $120 billion over the ten year time frame.
    Meanwhile the MSM continues to accept and parrot the GQP framing. None of the talking heads ever ask about rescinding the 2017 tax cuts for those who don't need them.
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    For some folks the "theater" could cost them their lives if McCarthy et al have their way: https://newrepublic.com/post/172066/house-gops-debt-ceiling-plan-calls-medicaid-snap-work-requirements
    On Medicaid, Republicans want recipients to fulfill certain income and work thresholds. If they don’t, states could kick them off their health insurance plans. A Congressional Budget Office report estimated that Medicaid work requirements would cause two million people to lose health coverage.
    Republicans also want work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Adults without children must fulfill work requirements up to the age of 56, overturning current law that has the threshold at age 49. Not only are such cuts punitive in nature, but they effectively leave people more vulnerable to precarity. The less we support people preemptively, the higher the costs will be if they fall through the cracks.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    The movement of the short and long duration yields is independent to each other. The longer end is determined by the market while the short end is controlled by the FED’s rate. It is counterintuitive to extend duration toward the intermediate duration, ~5-7 years. Treasury yield curve is still inverted and the probability of having 2yr yield at 5% is nearly nil. However, IG bond funds with short- and intermediate- duration are yielding 5%.
    Next week, the FED is likely to hike another 25 bps rate. In light of the banking turmoil, that may be the last rate hike the rest of the year. I think it is too optimistic to expect the FED to cut rate soon unless the economy falls into s severe recession.
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    “ … there may be many more gun-manufacturer-free funds out there. The list above comes from Kipplingers 25 favorite MFs, a pretty small sample.”
    Agree @BenWP - That’s just a small sample. There’s a hard to find link in the article that takes you to a screener.
    Here it is: FUND GUN SCREENER
    By way of example, here’s what the screener produced when I entered ASRAX: ”Gun grade: No holdings flagged for our civilian firearm screens. Assigned a grade of A.”
    Unfortunately, some funds i tried to screen (CEF @ OEF) were not found. One was a fund-of-funds which likely makes the task more difficult.
    Thanks @msf for all the clarification and added information. It gets complicated for sure. I hope some of the major fund companies will go on record and, in some way, shape, or manner, disavow investments in arms manufacturers whose non-military, non-law enforcement related products too often wind up in the wrong hands and do so much damage to innocent persons. (I think there’s already been some limited progress.) There’s likely to be different interpretations and implementation of such policy. But, heavens, we need to start somewhere.
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    The cite given in the article, gunfreefunds.org, is under the As You Sow Invest Your Values umbrella that I've suggested before.
    In calling out Lockheed Martin (LMT), it seems the writer is conflating two different though related issues: military weapons manufacturing and civilian firearms manufacturing. If your concern is about companies involved with the leading cause of death of children in the US, then look at the list of gun free funds.
    According to Money Magazine, there are only two publicly traded US companies that manufacture (civilian guns): Smith & Wesson (SWBI) and Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR), though American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) is the parent company of Smith & Wesson.
    https://money.com/avoid-gun-stocks-investing-advice/
    There are many other gun manufacturers, but they tend to be private. Here's a list of the top 25 firearm manufacturers. It includes familiar names like Colt (Colt CZ Group SE, traded on the Prague stock exchange), Beretta (privately owned, Italian parent), and Glock Ges.m.b.H (privately owned).
    https://orchidadvisors.com/top-25-largest-firearm-manufacturers-of-2021/
    GunFreeFunds takes ownership a step further (as noted in the Kiplinger piece) by considering parent companies of privately owned manufacturers. For example, it looks out for ownership of Colt CZ Groupe SE (CZG). Here's its whole list of companies it looks for:
    https://gunfreefunds.org/how-it-works
    M* has an article similar to Kiplingers.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1133372/how-to-find-gun-stocks-in-your-fund-portfolios
    It offers its own sampling of gun free funds
    image
    If you're interested in avoiding companies involved in weapons of war (military contractors, munitions manufacturers, nuclear arms manufacturers, etc.), Invest Your Values provides the site weaponsfreefunds.org.
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    @hank: there may be many more gun-manufacturer-free funds out there. The list above comes from Kipplingers 25 favorite MFs, a pretty small sample.
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    There were 11 banks in the attempted private rescue of $FRC via deposit infusions (that didn't work):
    Gr 1, $5 billion: $BAC, $C, $JPM, $WFC
    Gr 2, $2.5 billion: $GS, $MS
    Gr 3, $1 billion: $BK, $PNC, $STT, $TFC, $USB
    From this list, serious contenders now seem JPM (Gr 1), PNC (Gr 3), BAC (Gr 1), USB (Gr 3). We should know by Sunday Noon/PM.
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    Now you're going all metaphysical on us :-)
    If I have $400K in a bank split between two accounts and the bank fails, I'm covered for $250K. Cash being fungible, does it really matter whether the FDIC covers $200K in my savings account and $50K in my checking account or vice versa?
    It's all just numbers in a book (or bits in RAM). Nothing real to begin with.
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    That's all well and good, but it sounds as if one of the CDs would either have to be sold in the secondary markets, or cashed-in early (likely with substantial penalties) prior to the six month deadline.
    Also, let's say the two CDs are each for $200k. So does that mean that one CD is completely insured, but only 50k of the other is insured? If so, which one, and why?
    Like I said- a great question.
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    I purchased a CD at JP Morgan Chase through Fidelity several months ago. I also have a CD at First Republic. If, as has been reported, the FDIC were to "persuade" Chase to take over First Republic, the combined value of my two CDs at Chase would now exceed the $250,000 FDIC limit. A sale to Chase would likely mean that all of First Republic’s deposits would become accounts at the acquiring bank.
    Curious if, through no fault of my own, the excess amount over the FDIC limit now suddenly becomes uninsured?
    Fred
  • New I-Bond Rate 4.30%, 5/1/23
    On the last cycle, the Treasury said that you wouldn't get the old rate if you purchased savings bonds on Oct 30th (Mon) or 31st. Now it is saying much the same thing:
    When did I need to complete my I bond purchase to receive the initial rate of 6.89 percent?
    If you were buying in TreasuryDirect, you needed to complete your purchase and receive a confirmation e-mail by Thursday, April 27, 2023, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/help-center/savings-bond-faqs/
    How does a financial institution ask you to lend it money (make a deposit, buy a savings bond, etc.) without telling you (either in numbers or by formula) how much it will pay you for that loan? Maybe that's why the figure was released early. Though by that reasoning it should have been released yesterday morning.
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    The SEC writes in its Investor Bulletin "Bank Sweep Programs",
    If you have more than $250,000 in cash in your broker-dealer’s bank sweep program, you may want to consider:
    • Public Information about the health of the bank.
      You may want to take advantage of the financial and other information available to consumers on FDIC’s website at https://banks.data.fdic.gov/bankfind-suite/bankfind [corrected]. One relevant consideration when assessing the health of the bank may be the percentage of deposits derived from concentrated sources such as brokered deposits or one or more bank sweep arrangements.
    • Your broker-dealer’s affiliation with the bank.
      Your broker-dealer could choose not to limit or end a relationship with an affiliated bank that experiences financial difficulties, even if doing so would be in the best interests of broker-dealer’s customers.
    Brokers using affiliated banks include among others, Schwab (Charles Schwab Bank, Charles Schwab Premier Bank, Charles Schwab Trust Bank, TD Bank, TD Bank USA), E*Trade (self-directed accounts are limited to Morgan Stanley Bank and Morgan Stanley Private Bank; other accounts also use Citibank), and Merrill (Bank of America, Bank of America, Calif.; qualified Merrill retirement accounts may also use other banks)
    Other brokerages do not have affilliated banks. Vanguard is only now beginning to roll out a couple of FDIC-insured products, Vanguard Cash Deposit (sweep account) and Vanguard Cash Plus Account. But those are pilot programs open by invitation only. Fidelity offers a bank sweep program with slightly different banks for its CMA accounts and for its IRA accounts for its IRA accounts.
    Fidelity shows that it uses First Republic Bank, but that the bank is now unavailable in its program. According to Fidelity, that means only that it cannot add new money to First Republic (or presumably its successor bank?). This seems reasonable and responsible, as the moneys deposited there are below the FDIC limit and pulling money out would simply exacerbate the run on the bank. (First Republic is also on Merrill's list of banks for qualified retirement accounts.)
    Notable also is that Huntington National Bank is on Fidelity's IRA list of banks but not on its CMA list of banks. Recent change? I don't know. Huntington National Bank is the principal subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares, listed a month ago as a vulnerable bank. More recently, the bank said that it was working to shore up its assets and provided figures to substantiate that.
    So long as one's cash in a bank is below the FDIC limit, I don't think there's any reason to be concerned about losing money. The 2014 SEC warning about bank risks due to concentrated sources seems prescient.
  • New I-Bond Rate 4.30%, 5/1/23
    I am just rolling maturing 3m T-Bill (5/4/23) into 3m T-Bill auction Monday (5/1/23) - both will settle on 5/4/23. 3m is still benefitting from wide 1m-3m spread on debt-ceiling concerns.
    I am keeping existing I-Bonds and 5-yr TIPS for now, but not adding more. The new fixed rate of 0.90% was higher than expected.
    Unclear whether the early release of I-Bond rate on Friday, 4/28/23 was a leak or a mistake in setting up its embargoed release. I had marked Monday, 10am, 5/1/23 on my calendar and I was very surprised when the info came on Friday.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    Raiding has been going on for a long time. Firms have just increased in size and political/economic influence and have benefited from an utter lack of accountability and an uneven playing field. The 80s films Wall Street addressed raiding where a still viable airline company Blue Star is to be chopped up and sold for parts:
  • New I-Bond Rate 4.30%, 5/1/23
    I’m willing to keep my I-Bonds at least another six months at that rate. They are exempt from state income taxes, which adds a little more to their value, and perhaps inflation will not drop as expected. However, I’m not buying any new I-Bonds as long as CDs and money markets are yielding 4-5%
  • New to brokered CD's
    I had a 4% "brokered" CD mature yesterday, and I chose to reinvest the principal into a new 5% "brokered" CD. As long as I can get a guaranteed 5% interest on CDs, they will continue to be a very viable investment option for this retired investor. I have chosen to set up a laddering system, focusing on short term CDs of 6 monts to 1 year, so I am having CDs mature frequently, giving me the options of how to invest my cash.
  • Money Stuff, by Matt Levine: First Republic- April 27
    /4
    And:
    A defendant in the case, who spoke on condition of anonymity, denies paying bribes—his firm paid Helsinge “consultancy fees”—but says that exchanging information on rival bids and tenders was “the way of doing business” in South America at the time.
    Ah, yes, great, great.
    But the other part of the Businessweek story is that this story of corruption and bribery — and Morillo’s instant messages allegedly proving it — fell into the hands of David Boies, the famous American lawyer, who saw that Morillo and his clients had stolen billions of dollars from Venezuela and decided to try to get that money for himself:
    Excited by the evidence in their possession, various combinations of Boies, [Morillo’s rival Wilmer] Ruperti, Blondie (the private investigator) and [investor Bill] Duker (the moneyman) met over the summer of 2017 in various offices and on Duker’s 230‑foot sailboat, Sybaris, named for an ancient Greek city famous for its excess. …
    First they needed to persuade the Maduro administration to let them bring a claim on PDVSA’s behalf. … Ruperti introduced Boies and Duker to Nelson Martinez, Venezuela’s newly installed oil minister, and Reinaldo Muñoz Pedroza, the country’s attorney general. On July 12, 2017, the parties came to an agreement: Blondie, Duker and the lawyers would get 66% of the proceeds, leaving 34% for PDVSA.
    So they set up an entity — PDVSA US Litigation Trust — to sue Morillo and his clients in Florida federal court, and to pay any winnings two-thirds to the lawyers and one-third to PDVSA. They sued, and the defendants’ first line of defense was, basically, “look, you say that we stole billions of dollars from PDVSA, but why do you get to sue? You aren’t PDVSA; you’re some weird new trust. If we stole from PDVSA, let PDVSA sue us.”
    Back in court in Miami, before the proceedings could turn to the matter of whether Helsinge and its customers had committed any crimes, Boies needed to demonstrate that the trust had standing—the legal right to bring a case. In most lawsuits, an injured party files a complaint and the two sides argue over its merits. Here you had an opaque New York vehicle claiming to represent Venezuela’s state oil company, which itself was controlled by a corrupt dictator subject to sanctions. Beyond that, it was unclear from the preliminary filings who controlled the trust and who stood to benefit. In July 2018 the defendants filed a motion to have the case dismissed on the grounds that the trust was illegitimate.
    This defense was helped by the fact that nobody from PDVSA could really come to court to explain that the trust was legitimate, because (1) Venezuela was subject to increasingly strict US sanctions that made it hard for Boies to work with PDVSA and (2) the Venezuelan government didn’t make it particularly easy either:
    What followed was a kind of courtroom farce, as Boies Schiller Flexner’s increasingly desperate efforts to demonstrate the trust’s bona fides fell apart under scrutiny. Defense lawyers sought to depose Venezuelan signatories to the litigation agreement among the various parties, but none could be pinned down. One had simply vanished. Another, Martinez, the oil minister, had recently been arrested in Venezuela and charged with corruption. “Jailed? Did I hear jailed?” the judge asked, trying to keep up. When PDVSA’s general counsel did finally commit to going to the US to be deposed, two dozen attorneys booked flights and hotels, only for the witness to pull out at the last minute, apparently under orders from Maduro himself.
    The plaintiffs’ position was further undermined by how poorly news of the litigation was going down in South America. As part of the discovery process, Boies Schiller Flexner was ordered to hand over the agreement letter laying out the 66%-34% split. It was pilloried on Venezuelan state television. On April 24, 2018, the National Assembly, home to what remains of the country’s opposition, published a decree describing the trust as “a mechanism to divert the funds and resources” of Venezuela.
    Ultimately this defense worked, and the judge dismissed Boies’s lawsuit. I love that a famous US lawyer learned of Swiss companies defrauding a Venezuelan company out of billions of dollars, and his natural first reaction was to go to a US federal court to get it to order those companies to give him the money instead. “If a US lawyer notices anyone stealing any money anywhere in the world, that money belongs to him, and a US court will enforce his rights to it” is not 100% wrong as a description of US law, which explains a lot about the extraterritorial application of US law, the hegemony of the dollar system, and the entrepreneurial American legal culture. But it is not 100% right either, and it did not work out for Boies.
    Anyway, elsewhere in euphemisms for bribes, here is the Economist with a helpful collection:
    One approach is to talk about something other than money. Some officials, for example, like to keep citizens well abreast of their food and drink preferences. “I really want to drink a Nescafe,” declares an airport security guard six times as he frisks your correspondent in Burkina Faso. In Uganda traffic police find ways to mention their favourite soda. In South Africa such requests are so common that bribes for driving offences are known as “cold drink money”.
    I guess if you’re a cop at a traffic stop you can’t really ask for a consultancy fee.
    Succession
    I have occasionally tried to understand the capital structure, valuation, corporate governance and shareholder base of Waystar Royco, the Roy family’s publicly traded conglomerate on the TV show Succession, but I quickly find myself frustrated by some contradiction that doesn’t make much sense, and then I remind myself that it’s a TV show and nobody cares about the absolute verisimilitude of its corporate bits. (Who is on the Waystar Royco board? Why are there no independent directors? Who cares!) Anyway at FT Alphaville last week Louis Ashworth gave it a go; he got farther than I ever have but he gave up too, and my advice is that it isn’t worth it.
    Things happen
    SVB’s new owner fights to rebuild brand and stem outflows. Moody’s Downgrades 11 Regional Banks, Including Zions, U.S. Bank, Western Alliance. New Wall Street ‘fear gauge’ to track short-term market swings. The Crypto Detectives Are Cleaning Up. The Impending Fight for Private Equity Buyout Lending. CME plays down rival to LME nickel market. UK Aims to Avoid Repeat of Liz Truss’s Market Mayhem With LDI Reforms. Partner pay at top US law firms hit by dealmaking drought. J&J Consumer-Health IPO Process to Kick Off Key Test for Moribund New-Issue Market. A Schwab Divorce From Bank Could Unlock Value, JPMorgan Says. Gemini’s Plan for Derivatives Exchange Adds to Crypto’s Flight From the US. “The market considers the one-month bill a safe haven. … The three-month is more in the crosshairs.” How Vanuatu allegedly lost its mackerel rights — and fought back. “Afterward we had dinner at Bennigan's; on the menu chalkboard, under Quiche of the Day, Jello [Biafra] scrawled ‘YOU.’”
    If you'd like to get Money Stuff in handy email form, right in your inbox, please subscribe at this link. Or you can subscribe to Money Stuff and other great Bloomberg newsletters here. Thanks!
    [1] This number comes from the company’s first-day declaration (PDF), Document 10 in the bankruptcy docket.
    [2] A footnote to this sentence in the declaration cites Money Stuff.
    [3] There are also about $1 billion of unsecured bonds outstanding, and talk about nostalgia: They were issued in 2014 to fund a stock buyback, and include about $600 million of *30-year bonds*, due in 2044, with a 5.165% interest rate. They were rated A-/Baa1 when issued. Different times!
    [4] Its closest competition is when Hertz Global Holdings Inc. sold stock to meme-stock investors *in bankruptcy*, which was incredible, but (1) the US Securities and Exchange Commission shut that deal down almost as soon as it launched, so it never raised much money and (2) Hertz was trying to reorganize in bankruptcy, not liquidate; it succeeded and the equity actually recovered, so buying (and, thus, selling) the stock was not *that* crazy. To be clear, that is still a possibility here — “Bed Bath & Beyond has pulled off long shot transactions several times in the last six months, so nobody should think Bed Bath & Beyond will not be able to do so again” — and I will feel dumb and amazed if the people who bought Bed Bath stock on Friday at $0.29 end up making a fortune on the trade.
    [5] This is a little loose, and there are scenarios where some equity owner might put in more money in a bankruptcy-type situation in order to *keep control of the company*. “An equity owner throws in more money and comes out with zero stake in the company" is … less common.
    [6] No, no, it’s still trading; it was at about $0.19 or so at noon today. Really this should say “… and (2) now is even more clearly going to be worthless,” but all hope is not technically lost.
    [7] Bloomberg reports: “‘The idea that you can continually support your company even in the face of constant dilution of your investors just isn’t a long-term, viable corporate-finance strategy,’ said James Gellert, CEO of ratings firm Rapid Ratings. ‘Bed Bath & Beyond had a seeming disregard for common equity holders.’”
    /4 of 4
  • Money Stuff, by Matt Levine: First Republic- April 27
    /3
    In 2017, Snap Inc. went public by selling non-voting stock; only founders and insiders would get any votes at all. Investors complained, and also bought the stock, because they didn’t want to miss out on a hot initial public offering. (It’s down more than 40% since its IPO, oops.) But then some index providers — FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones — changed their rules to exclude or limit dual-class stocks from many of their indexes. The investors had solved their collective action problem; they had found a way to impose economic penalties on companies with dual-class stock.
    It didn’t work. Companies kept going public with dual-class stock. They didn’t care that much about missing out on the indexes; their founders were willing to pay the economic price to keep control. (In particular, companies don’t generally get added to the S&P 500 the day they go public; a lot of index demand is not for shares in the IPO but later on, meaning that it doesn’t directly affect the IPO price.) This means that the investors’ solution ended up being bad for them: They credibly committed to not buying dual-class stock of hot companies, hot companies kept going public with dual-class stock, index funds couldn’t buy those stocks, and they were sad.
    The solution was to give up. Last week S&P Dow Jones announced that dual-class stocks are fine again: “Effective April 17, 2023, all companies with multiple share class structures will be considered eligible candidates for addition to the S&P Composite 1500 and its component indices,” including the S&P 500. Here’s a Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP client memo from last week:
    In response to Snap Inc.’s IPO in which only non-voting shares were offered to the public, the Council of Institutional Investors and others had lobbied the major index providers to bar non-voting shares from their indices, arguing that absent this change, passive investors such as index funds would be forced to invest in non-voting shares that erode public company governance. As a result, since July 31, 2017, S&P Dow Jones has excluded companies with multiple share classes from the indices comprising the S&P Composite 1500.
    The decision to revisit index eligibility criteria comes after a consultation process that S&P Dow Jones ran with market participants from October to December 2022.
    In 2017, investors noisily complained that they were being forced to buy dual-class stocks, so S&P kicked the dual-class stocks out of the indexes. In 2022, investors noisily complained that they were being forced not to buy dual-class stocks, so S&P let them back in.
    Oil rigging
    I loved Liam Vaughan’s and Lucia Kassai’s Bloomberg Businessweek story last week about corruption in Venezuelan oil auctions, in part because it is two almost entirely separate stories of corruption. For starters, there are the Venezuelan oil auctions. Venezuela’s state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, would sell various oil products in auctions, and big oil trading firms would hire a consulting firm named Helsinge, run by a guy named Francisco Morillo, to help them win the auctions. The way he allegedly helped them win was (1) he bribed PDVSA insiders to tell him about the other bids, (2) he shared those bids with his clients, (3) the clients topped those bids by a penny and (4) they paid him enough to cover the bribes with some profit for himself:
    In one series of chats from March 14, 2006, Morillo, using the screen name George White, guided three prominent commodity traders—Maarraoui at Vitol, Gustavo Gabaldon at Glencore and Maximiliano Poveda at Trafigura—through auctions for fuel oil and a product called vacuum gas oil, which is used to make gasoline. At 9:51 a.m., nine minutes before the offers were due, Morillo shared details of the bids PDVSA had received for the vacuum gas oil—information PDVSA says is supposed to be confidential. Five minutes later he informed the three traders, via separate chats, of a late bid for the fuel oil.
    The traders didn’t enter every auction, but when they did bid, the information Morillo had provided let them know at what price to do so. On March 20, 2006, after learning about offers from BP Plc and two other companies, Maarraoui placed a bid to buy gas oil at 0.8¢ per gallon more than the next-highest bidder. Two days later, Poveda won a liquefied petroleum gas auction after being told about two rival offers and besting them by a cent.
    These conversations, a handful among thousands, demonstrate how valuable Helsinge’s service was to its customers—and how potentially devastating it was to the Venezuelan people. If Morillo’s clients had been forced to enter the market blind, they likely would have placed some bids at $5 or $10 per metric ton higher than they needed to, as the chats show their competitors did. Instead the traders were able to win auctions they entered by a dollar or less, saving as much as $1.5 million on a typical 150,000-ton cargo. According to the Boies complaint, they’d pay Helsinge about $300,000 on a shipment of that size. PDVSA declined to provide data to Businessweek on the outcome of its auctions, or to comment for this story, but given that the company conducted dozens of auctions each month as buyer and seller, and that Helsinge was in business for 15 years, it’s conceivable Venezuela lost out on several billion this way.
    Also, if you keep doing this, eventually you’re going to drive everyone else out of the auctions, further depressing prices:
    Traders from two oil companies told Businessweek that they’d stopped participating in PDVSA’s auctions because they were sick of losing to the same players. “Putting together an offer takes time. You need to figure out the economics, freight, insurance, the hedge, then submit to your compliance, get signatures from God knows who before you’re able to submit a number,” says one of the individuals, who asked not to be identified. “After a while we just gave up. It became clear to us that something funny was happening.”
    This part of the story includes some classics of the “don’t put it in writing” and “don’t refer to bribes by cutesy nicknames” genres:
    As well as routinely passing along information, [PDVSA commercial and supply unit manager Rene] Hecker talked to Morillo about the need to encrypt their conversations and about an offshore company he’d set up in Panama. In one message, Hecker sent Morillo banking information for his father-in-law, known as Gigante, writing in the subject line, “chamo elimina estos archivos despues please” (“dude delete these files later please”). Before Christmas 2004, Gigante received two payments totaling $400,000, Morillo’s bank statements show.
    /3