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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Asking for a friend....
    “Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest.”
    Sure. I’ll comment. HSGFX is a bear market fund. It should surprise no one that the fund has soared in a year in which the S&P has fallen 25% in a mere 6 months and the NASDAQ more than 32% during the same period. If your point is that HSGFX is a better fund than PRWCX over multi-year periods, than you should buy it. However, past performance doesn’t support that.
    It is certainly possible we’re entering another Great Depression era during which markets will continue falling for multiple years and than not recover / return to “break-even” for 2 decades - as in the 30s and 40s. If that’s your call, than invest your $$ in bear funds, Personally, I refuse to believe that’s where the U.S. and global economies are heading for the next 20 years. But that’s just my largely uninformed optimistic outlook - perhaps the unfortunate consequence of having watched far too many Louis Rukeyser programs during the 70s, 80s & 90s. Your money. Your call.
  • Stable Value (SV) Rates
    TIAA Traditional Rates, October 1, 2022
    Restricted RC 6.00%, RA 5.75%
    Flexible RCP 5.25%, SRA 5.00%, Newer IRA 3.05%
    Across the board increases +0.25%.
    Tiny increases in lifetime payout rates.
    #TIAA #StableValue #GuaranteedIncome #403b
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/142/tiaa-traditional-rates-monthly?page=2&scrollTo=792
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet for 10/2022.
    https://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfundinterestrate
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    It's over! The end of awful week, month and quarter, as well-put by CNBC.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/stock-futures-are-flat-following-thursdays-broad-sell-off.html
    June-low-test has also FAILED.
    Nasdaq Comp sank past its June low (10,646) to close at 10,576.
    What about R2000 still hanging at 1,665, slightly above its mid-June low of 1,650? Well, 4 of the 5 major indexes are now decisively below June lows, so R2000 is the odd ball. MOREOVER, better SC indexes such as IJR, SLY are now below their June lows.
    Get ready of a down leg in seasonally bad October. But November offers hope as good seasonality kicks in Nov 1 - April 30.
  • Unscheduled fed meeting Monday? Hmmm.
    If there were anything to it, Bloomberg would have been all over it. (They weren’t).
    Than again, things are unraveling quickly. Should some ancillary damage along the lines of what the UK experienced show itself - who knows? DJI was positive today, than flattish, and than went into a suicide dive 30 minutes before the close, ending down over 500 points at 28,725 - a far cry from the 37,000 (or thereabouts) highs reached earlier this year.
    A buyers’ paradise, as long as you don’t run out of money. :)
    Interesting story in Reuters about record cash inflows into the Federal Reserve Reverse Repo Facility. (Heard first on Bloomberg).
  • Asking for a friend....
    "Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were 'fan favorites', kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves."
    "Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest without the QE."
    I don't personally own any of the mentioned funds.
    When an investor owns actively-managed funds, they should expect periods of underperfomance.
    It usually comes with the territory.
    If an investor can't tolerate bouts of underperformace, perhaps they should utilize broad-based index funds instead to capture market returns?
    Mr. Hussman anticipated market crashes associated with the dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.
    He's been a perma-bear since the GFC and his funds' long-term performance
    was terrible last time I checked (it's been a while).
  • Asking for a friend....
    I for one would be sorely tempted by guaranteed 5% returns. I once new someone who told me that during the Volcker era she bought very long term fixed income securities of some kind (CDs? Treasurys?) that paid a double-digit rate of interest and enjoyed that for many years, when all other returns were paltry.
    I'm thinking to invest in longer-term CDs over the next quarter or two, but keep some cash aside (20%?) in Money Market Funds in case the Stock market really tanks. Or maybe go 100% CDs and take the early withdrawal penalty if need be.
    Saw some Morgan Stanley 4.8% 10 year CDs at Fido today, though they are callable. Over 5% is soon to come.
  • Asking for a friend....
    I for one would be sorely tempted by guaranteed 5% returns. I once new someone who told me that during the Volcker era she bought very long term fixed income securities of some kind (CDs? Treasurys?) that paid a double-digit rate of interest and enjoyed that for many years, when all other returns were paltry.
  • 2022 year-end capital gains distribution estimates (Vanguard's Final estimated year-end posted)
    This was a surprise to me. Baron Funds made spillback distributions on 9/27. I thought I needed to worry only about tax year 2022, but 2021 is still taking a bite out of me. Here’s Baron’s explanation:
    “Spillback distributions are distributions of ordinary and/or capital gains from the previous fiscal year that were not distributed by the end of that year. Spillback distributions must be declared within 9½ months (the fund’s extended tax return due date) of the end of the fund’s fiscal year. The extended tax return due dates are July 15th and October 15th for the September 30th and December 31st fiscal year end funds, respectively. Even though they represent ordinary income and/or capital gains earned by the fund in the previous fiscal year, they are taxable in the year in which they are paid.”
    I was thinking I had plenty of time to sell BWBFX before distributions, but I was asleep at my iPad. Now I wonder what Baron will do for tax year 2022. Feeling like taxes fall on the middle class and me especially. Does baying at the moon do any good?
  • Laddering Short-Term Treasury Purchases
    This is just conceptual and largely off the top of my head, so take it for what it's worth. Also, I'm discussing taxable bonds with (original) maturities of more than one year that are not zeros. So this excludes T-bills and STRIPS. In addition, T-bills are non-covered, so unlike other bounds purchased since 2014, their purchase price may not be reported to the IRS.
    OID accretes (it is gradually added to the "natural" price of a bond). This portion of "appreciation" is treated as interest. (Think of a zero; all of the interest is reflected in the increase in price of the bond over time). Since this OID interest comes from the original issuer, here the Treasury, it is taxed the same way as if that interest had been part of the coupon. IOW, state tax exempt, federally taxable.
    Market premium or discount is relative to the OID-adjusted price. You will likely sell at a higher or lower discount (or premium) than you got at time of purchase. For example, you might buy bonds with a total discount of $50, but sell them with no discount. This "gain" of $50 is treated differently depending on the YTW at which you bought the bond.
    If you bought that bond with the expectation (i.e. YTW) that you would get $30 more at sale (instead of the $50 you got), then $30 is treated as ordinary (not Treasury) interest. After all, you purchased the bond for that yield. Now you lucked out, rates dropped, and you got some extra (market) appreciation. That extra appreciation is taxed (fed and state) as a cap gain.
    There's a de minimis rule: if the amount of market gain (i.e. excluding OID adjustments) is less than 0.25% x number of years you hold the bond, then the entire accretion (gain) is treated as a cap gain.
    What if you bought a bond at a premium and sell it for less, or what if you even bought it at a discount but sold it at a bigger discount? That loss is used to reduce the amount of interest you receive. If you purchased a bond with a 3% coupon, but with a 2% premium, then you're effectively netting 1% in interest. This is reflected in how the bond is taxed.
    I'm almost positive I've gotten something not exactly right here. Just trying to sketch the broad outlines.
    There are some elections - basically how accretion is calculated (there are multiple methods) and whether one chooses to declare income annually or upon sale.
    See Pub 550 generally. And look for explanatory pieces. The IRS is good at mechanics, not so good on explaining the concepts. I'm sure you can find better stuff than what I jotted down here. I haven't looked at this in depth in several years.
  • Asking for a friend....
    As for corrected 1099 from Schwab, several have reported the issue here. Seems to be a Schwab cost-basis recordkeeping issue. But there were no real explanations from Schwab with the corrected 1099, only some vague references that this can happen for many reasons.
    FLTDX in August, then again in September.
    VCFAX, TRBUX in September
    FARIX in September (your OP)
    If tax implications of corrections are "small", they may be ignored, IMO (but what do I know?). Keep in mind that the corrected 1099 do go to the IRS.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59922/schwab-issued-corrected-1099-in-august
  • Asking for a friend....
    FARIX, Fulcrum Diversified Absolute Fund...mentioned on the boards in the recent past...did Schwab send out several statements to shareholders of the fund with restated values of the fund on each statement? What if anything should one read into it? I have no idea what that is about but I was a shareholder of IQDAX when I received about a dozen similar statements with restated values from various backwards looking months and a few months later the fund closed and the manager was charged with some kind of malfeasance. NOT saying this is the case here meaning FAIRX, but do wonder what the reason for this is. Any explanations, why would they have to do this? Where is the governance?
    Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were "fan favorites", kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves.
    Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest without the QE.
    Got to like the 4.3 2YR CD Schwab, 4.4 3YR, 4.5 5YR...do I hear 5% 5 year? when that happens, I can hear a whooshing sound of folks over 60 bailing on the stonk market and locking in. Thoughts?
    CDX IG spread is bigly....what does it mean? lotsa stress in credit markets, can't be good, or do we blast off in big tech names soon with squeeze or does it all go down the sheeeter soon?
    Good Health and Good Luck to ALL
    Baseball Fan
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    @Observant1, most low-tests fail like waterfalls with all major indexes collapsing on the same day or the next day. But this week+ long low-test is like water-torture. It started last week on Thursday and here we are a week later, and only DJ Transports, DJIA, SP500 have breached their lows by small amounts. If things were more normal, the more volatile Nasdaq Comp and R2000 would have been the first to breach their lows but they are quite resistant this time (although their hi-to-lo declines are larger).
    One can read this in 2 ways.
    First, that low-test may still fail. Then, there is quite a bit of underlying strength in the market.
    Second, the last leg of decline is yet to come and that would be when Nasdaq Comp and R2000 are also taken down. Where would that go? SP500 3,500? 3,000?
    Reasons can be found to support either scenario.
    What is important for me is that I can add some to equities, but I want the above to be resolved one way or the other.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/22
    There were minor declines in the stock funds. The changes in the totals were based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $29.95 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $299.5 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.
    OEFs: Stocks 51.77%, Hybrids 7.09%, Bonds 21.02%, M-Mkt 20.12%
    ETFs: Stocks 80.49%, Hybrids 0.53%, Bonds 18.98%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.09%, Hybrids 5.65%, Bonds 20.57%, M-Mkt 15.70%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=791
  • Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest unveils new actively managed Venture Fund
    “Cathie Wood and brokerage platform Titan partnered together to launch the actively managed ARK Venture Fund (MUTF: XARKX). The new ARK Venture Fund aims to democratize venture capital by providing all market participants access to innovative organizations throughout the private and public markets with a minimum investment of $500.”
    Read story here
  • Dodge and Cox X funds
    "Most recently, Dodge & Cox moved to keep its funds attractive from a pricing standpoint.
    It has long targeted cheapest-quartile expense ratios for its single, no-commission share class - a boon for retail investors. Over time, however, the fee structure became tough to swallow for defined-contribution retirement plans. Dodge & Cox had paid fees for defined-contribution plan recordkeeping, and those plans had to report such payments to clients. Dodge & Cox removed this administrative hassle by creating a so-called 'clean' share class that avoids such arrangements.The new X share class will debut in May 2022 on all but the emerging-markets fund. Designed specifically for defined-contribution plans, it will have an even lower management fee than the legacy shares (which will be called I shares)."

    Link
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Thanks. For the rest of us, since I had to look up, for reference, today's close are 10,737.51 and 1,674.93, respectively. Less than 1% and 2%, respectively, above June lows.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    For this strange week-long June-low-test to fail, Nasdaq Comp has to close below 10,646 and R2000 below 1,650.
  • Tsp performance
    The TSP is what it is. I might, however, point to the L income performance. While most elderly retirees have lost about 15% in most commercial target retirement income funds, retirees in L income have only lost 6%. The G has crept up a bit but doesn't seem to have the superior returns to many commercial vehicles that it once had. (Maybe it was always a myth; I don't know.) The equity funds are what they are - broad indexes. They probably mimic any other commercial offering for the same index fund. Truth be told, when income funds are down 15%, equity dominant funds being down more, even twice as much, isn't a stretch of my imagination. One might admit, however, that, when the G fund is available for ballast, it is a good thing. Many, like myself, are hoping that the recent changes that open the TSP to a commercial window don't drive up expenses for everyone and don't trash the plan entirely. Right now, it is reportedly non-functional. I haven't been able to fix my beneficiary after my husband's death. I don't think; who knows? Nothing is guaranteed updated or accurate. I am worried that RMDs won't come off in December as designed. With the disfunction, the only indicator might be whether you received the check or deposit. It is a mess, a royal, stupid, unnecessary mess with no real end in sight.