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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    Here’s a very thorough discussion of BAMBX from last November:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58920/blackrock-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-bambx
    In it fred495 provided a direct link to LB’s Barron’s piece. It works whether you are a subscriber or not. I appreciated that. Reading Barron’s via an Amazon Kindle subscription does not allow me to access Barron’s website directly. So links to past articles don’t get me in the door. Fred’s link did work, however.
    Good article. The managers appear competent at what they do. They are bent on preserving capital - a worthy goal. What I’m trying to determine is the fund’s most recent weighting in long equity positions. Certainly behaves a lot more like a fixed income fund than a balanced, allocation or LS sort.
    Addendum
    Thanks Yogi & Lewis for your input. After more research I intend to keep BAMBX. It represents a small portion (around 15%) of a broader 45% allocation to Alternatives. It’s also the most conservative holding in that mix. To be down only 4-5% in a year when many intermediate bond funds have lost 10% or more is a tribute to the fund. It has dawned on me that there are other avenues I can pursue to ramp up risk exposure which involve buying or selling stocks or ETFs rather than mutual funds. I’m learning after a year with Fido that, when possible, it’s better not to make changes in NTF fund holdings as their 60-day holding period can come back to “bite” you at a later date.
    Regards
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    It's often hard to tell what many alt funds' true risk exposures are because of their derivatives usage so that a relatively tiny position asset wise in a stock futures or options contract can have a dramatic impact on returns. I would recommend going directly to the fund's web site and reading its specific literature to understand better than Yahoo or some other fund tracker site:
    https://blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/fact-sheet/bambx-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-factsheet-us09260c1099-us-en-individual.pdf
    https://blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/product-commentary/oef-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-qtd-commentary.pdf
    https://blackrock.com/us/individual/resources/regulatory-documents/stream-document?stream=reg&product=BR-SMS-AG&shareClass=Class+A&documentId=1699980%7E1699979%7E1704311%7E1865166%7E1912777&iframeUrlOverride=%2Fus%2Findividual%2Fliterature%2Fsemi-annual-report%2Fsar-retail-fixed-income-two-06-30.pdf
    Also: https://barrons.com/articles/a-2-9b-alternative-fund-that-actually-works-51606264740
    My understanding is BAMBX will generally be at least 50% invested in high quality bonds while the remainder will be split between a long-short equity strategy and a macro one that makes country bets.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    A quick look: BAMBX cash levels reported by Yahoo, M*, Fido seem high but BlackRock doesn't report much cash. Discrepancy may be due to its nature - M* says that 50% of the portfolio is long and the rest market-neutral or long-short. So, that may be cash related to shorts, not cash allocation.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    This is one segment of my alternative sleeve. Not disappointed in it, but considering shifting the $$ over time into more aggressive funds with the equity markets down so much this year.
    Yahoo’s “holdings” added up to only about 30% with no explanation of what the other 70% was. So I found the list below at Fidelity. At least it appears to add up to 100% - but not very illuminating. Fido lists two rows of numbers. The row on the right side is shaded. I’m guessing that represents the average weighing within its peer class. Have added slash marks between rows for clarity.
    For those who have followed the fund longer than I have, is the reported cash / bond exposure likely a temporary defensive position, or is this by and large a hedged income fund? What % exposure to equities or real assets (metals, real estate, etc.) would you expect this fund to maintain over longer periods?
    BAMBX - Portfolio Weight (Multistrategy)
    Cash & Equivalents 41.05% / 32.30%
    0
    Agency Mortgage-Backed 31.00% / 10.66%
    0
    Corporate Bond 24.60% / 13.89%
    0
    Convertible 1.91% / 3.42%
    0
    Asset-Backed 1.29% / 2.99%
    0
    Government 0.14% / 5.84%
    0
    Government Related0.01% / 26.71%
    0
    Bank Loan 0.00% / 1.33%
    0
    Commercial Mortgage-Backed 0.00% / 0.13%
    0
    Covered Bond 0.00% / 0.03%
    0
    Future/Forward 0.00% / 1.88%
    0
    Municipal Tax-Exempt 0.00% / 0.12%
    0
    Municipal Taxable 0.00% / 0.00%
    0
    Non-Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed 0.00% / 0.38%
    0
    Option/Warrant 0.00% / 0.02%
    0
    Preferred Stock 0.00% / 0.28%
    0
    Swap 0.00 / 0.01
    0
    LINK to BAMBX @ Fidelity https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/09260C109?type=sq-NavBar
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thank you
    Think large recession Loomming now prob for remaining this yr and very long time next yr
    Housing sector will turn over soon and may remain very weak for 12 months at least
    Us jobs probably be bad in few months w all demand destruction from feds policies and corporations do not perform well to keep hiring/lots terminations/weaken job market
    Inflation may have peak last few months....? Deflationary picture in 5 6 months??
    I think sp500 liklely will retest June lows and may leg down lowered < 3600 but no one knows how low we can go
    Market usually bottom 1/3 or 1/2 way through recession
    1962 recession showed double dip but rises after... Current Sp500 chart may resemble 1962
    For me no changes, has 17 yrs left. Keep buying tdf2050 and stocks in tsp-401k. May slow down w private trading portfolio, wait a little while w private trading portfolio or buy good fundamentals //healthcare /tech /banks/etf stocks
    New bull cycle maybe after ??!! Xmas
  • Alger Small Cap Focus Fund to resume sales
    Well-timed reopening!
    Current Barron's has a feature Alger Mid Cap Focus. Amy Zhang manages that AND Alger Small Cap Focus.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/top-mid-cap-manager-tech-stocks-51663347771?mod=past_editions
  • Alger Small Cap Focus Fund to resume sales
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3521/000119312522246470/d361298d497.htm
    497 1 d361298d497.htm ALGER SMALL CAP FOCUS FUND - CLASS AC,I,Y,Z
    THE ALGER FUNDS
    Alger Small Cap Focus Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated September 16, 2022 to the
    Summary Prospectuses and Prospectuses of the Fund
    dated March 1, 2022, as amended and supplemented to date
    Effective July 31, 2019, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of The Alger Funds authorized a partial closing of the Fund. On September 13, 2022, the Board determined it would be in the best interest of Fund shareholders to resume sales of shares of the Fund to all qualifying investors. Therefore, effective or about October 17, 2022, the Fund’s Class A, C, I, Y and Z shares will be available to all qualifying investors.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Thanks, Yogi, for the additional color. Most fund companies have very high dividend (albeit variable) yields. Schwab's div yield (1.25%) is well below that of SPY, not to mention XLF. I am not sure comparing Schwab stock performance with other fund companies stock is appropriate, given its low AUM, low margin fund business, but I do not know what is an appropriate comparison for Schwab as i have not looked into the drivers of its financials statements.
    Schwab bank is certainly a high way robbery and Schwab brokerage facilitates the bank with no sweep MM funds.
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    What is the point in knowing the effective tax rates anyhow, as they are meaningless for the vast majority of the ultra rich folks and corps that pay little if any taxes. I cannot remember which ones. but in the past year or so, I recall some S&P 500 companies paid no taxes and were actually refunded money by the IRS due to write offs ,probably from stock buybacks and other costs. Maybe you know who they were Lewis.
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    Here's one attempt at calculating the effective tax rate of the wealthiest Americans over time: https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/effective-income-tax-rates-have-fallen-top-one-percent-world-war-ii-0
    Because of all the loopholes, it's a difficult endeavor, but one thing hard to ignore is that the effective rate has gone down significantly, from as much as 50% in 1945 to 25% more recently for the richest in this particular study.
  • 1-Yr T-Bill Yield Print 4.00% Today
    +1
    All true OJ. A guess would be it has to do with the speed of change (in rates). Over time people will get used to 6% mortgages or higher if their income / net worth keep pace.
    I well remember the 60s / 70s as a teen age “nerd” who subscribed to U.S. News & World Report at 15 and normally read it twice on a weekend. You may recall that the dollar weakened considerably over those inflationary years as cost of living rose from maybe 5% in the 60s to double-digit by the late 70s. Not to be overlooked, gold soared from $35 to over $800 by the mid 70s. Houses appreciated nicely and just about everybody in the world agreed they were the best investments.
    We baby boomers “goosed” the home buying frenzy helping push up interest rates. By contrast, equity investing lagged by about a decade but took off in the 70s as I recall. Once we had our homes, new cars (and in some cases kids) we began investing for retirement. My first home in the late 70s carried something like a 10-11% fixed rate mortgage. As my income kept pace - based on COL adjustments plus “stepping” (increases based on years service) - that interest rate didn’t seem onerous.
    So, simply put - It takes time for consumers and markets to adjust to new realities. I think in a plane what we’re witnessing right now might be called “bow shock.”
  • 1-Yr T-Bill Yield Print 4.00% Today
    My mortgage in late-1970s was at 10.75%. Those were different times. Real estate cap rates were quite high then. Valuations now are much higher for everything. Even the T-Bills are approaching the cap rate, thanks to the Fed, Twitter LINK.
    image
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @johnN, while Stockcharts shows RSI(14) for $UST2Y, etc, it isn't really important. You are locking in yield at purchase to maturity, and for ST (up to 5 yrs), you can just hold on to maturity. See a nearby thread on $UST1Y at 4%.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcxuvmNXEAEa_3t?format=jpg&name=medium
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Especially sir ust 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr IMHO so expensive rsi severely high
    Maybe wrong end of trade if keep buying them
    Maybe good buy small portions dca spy iwm and wait 12 36 months
  • 1-Yr T-Bill Yield Print 4.00% Today
    "Heard on the news today that 30 year fixed mortgages are now over 6%, Not that long ago they were 3-4%. That has to hit the housing market like a sledge hammer."
    @hank- At this point in time, I agree with you regarding the damage to the housing market. But what I'm having trouble with is the fact that back in the 70s, at least in SF, 30-year mortgage rates were typically in the 8% range, or even a little over. I remember, because we had an 8.5% mortgage for our first home, and that was with an excellent credit rating.
    And yet the real estate market, at least here in SF, wasn't in any particular trouble. Lots of people were buying and selling homes in that environment. Also, unlike today, there was no great shortage of "affordable" housing in the SF Bay Area, because there was still land available for new building in nearby areas.
    I really have no idea, but it seems to me that there must have been other factors involved in the general financial situation then, compared to now. I'd be very curious to know a bit more about all of that.
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @Baseball_Fan Most of the evidence I've seen is that the increase in SNAP payments has been a response to not a cause of food inflation. People are having trouble making ends meet. Show me definitive evidence otherwise. There is corruption on every level of society, but trotting out the old welfare queen stereotype--"are able bodied, of sound mind, lazy bums looking for a handout"-- from Reagan's 1980s seems a little cliche, does it not? I would say the corruption at the highest levels of wealth and power exceeds the corruption on the lowest levels in an order of magnitude.
    Meanwhile, the mythology revolving around tax rates--I've heard that old "more loopholes back then" argument before--also rings false. There have been plenty of loopholes since tax rates of all sorts on the wealthy started plummeting in the 1980s. The effective tax rate for many wealthy individuals and giant corporations with loopholes in the U.S. has been far lower than the top tax rate for a long time. As the tax code has grown increasingly complex with each year, why would there be more loopholes in the past than the present time? Show me evidence.
    Stating the fact that price gouging exists in business is a sign that someone "doesn't understand basic economics" seems to emerge from someone who doesn't understand basic economics. In every industry there are price takers where markets are highly competitive and price makers where markets are more monopolistic and not as competitive. Price makers often gouge their customers. Witness the gouging on the life-saving allergy medicine EpiPen, which when Mylan acquired its production rights jacked up its price from $100 per dose to $600 a dose: https://beasleyallen.com/article/pfizer-to-pay-345-million-for-epipen-price-gouging-scandal/. Why? Because they could. As the exclusive maker of the drug, they were a price maker with a monopoly. Now witness what the U.S. oil industry is doing today. The breakeven cost of oil production in the U.S. today is $56 a barrel: https://rigzone.com/news/what_oil_price_do_cos_need_to_profitably_drill_in_usa-25-mar-2022-168396-article/ Yet they're currently charging $85 a barrel. Why? Because they can. With the supply from Russia cut off, U.S. oil companies can now be price makers instead of takers. So they are gouging. It's the reason why their stocks are so high.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thankyou sir - Mr Hank [indeed maybe master at technicals analysis/macro-economic themes, and trading strategies]. I started trading last yr so very new to this field/still very inexperience compared to one whom may have traded ++ 20 30 yrs plus. Before just buy and hold couch potatoes/ learnt so much last year /continued learning today. Thankyou for the informative insights.
    the 95B coming off balance sheets probably monthly priced by WALSTREET TRADERS, and Mr Hank exactly right probably not priced in yet [rather maybe monthly priced in actions due to diminished monies supplies]
    What point do you think the inflictions will end? Many institutional traders keep saying when you have a few days 95% stock gain sp500/nasdaq /small caps/techs despite horrible news and occurred after capitulation, market breadth indicator upswings, then maybe near market bottom formation. We have those references near first wk of June, and we have not seen those pivot points recently.
    Its indeed a bear market out there, so many resistance broke off today/bears are having a good day. Could be double bottoms 2008-09 all over again. Recent SPY chart maybe showing - head and -shoulder pictures [ too early to tell]
    thankyou for any suggestions
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...Baseball Fan
    @Baseball_Fan - I’m trying to cut through your rambling macro analysis. Would you please address some of the following questions? Best Wishes
    “Curious … Do you think the technicals … ”
    What technicals? Not everyone uses technical analysis. Please identify which “technicals” you watch and base your investment decisions on? I’ve tried to help out by listing a few common technical indicators below:
    - Moving Averages
    - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
    - Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)
    - Bollinger Bands
    - Volume
    - Exponential Moving Average
    - Money Flow Index
    “ … would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets”
    Over what period of time? Do you have a source verifying this will be completed within a definite time period? It took over a decade for the Federal Reserve to amass their bond holdings, beginning with the near depression that threatened the economy between 2007 and 2009.
    “and the impact on stonks” (sic?)
    Not all stocks are the same. Financials? Commodities? Growth? Domestic or foreign? Also omitted here is any reference to time frame. Do you mean by the end or 2022 or are your concerns related to further out (5-10 years)?
    “rate hikes”
    Why would you consider rate hikes to be bad for equities? Financials tend to do very well when longer term rates rise. It is true that the most speculative areas tend to suffer as the cost of borrowing increases. (However, many are already down 50-70% this year.) But it’s not as cut & dry as you would have us believe. Rates have been extremely low for many years now. Bound to rise some day. Yet you and many others have over that time invested in equities for the long term - even knowing rates would someday rise. What changed?
    “the impact of policy errors”
    That’s a sweeping assertion based it seems on conjecture. Please explain why that risk is higher now than in March 2020 (the covid related financial crisis) or March 2009 (the beginning of the last bull market). Policy errors can occur at any point in time. So can other negative factors like war, political chaos, natural disaster. As investors in companies we’re accustomed to accepting those risks.
    “inflation continuing on and on … “
    Says who? Do you have some psychic in mind who can forecast inflation years out?
    “(Will) the fed pivot any time soon … ?”
    What particular “pivot” are you referencing? After you explain that, please explain why an equity investor should base long term decisions on this ill defined hypothetical concept.
    “inflation still running so hot”
    That’s redundant as you referenced it above. Here you seem to prophesy inflation will remain “so hot” ? … There’s no definitive way I know of to confirm / predict the level of inflation 1, 2 or 3 years out. Shall we base our long term equity investment decisions on such speculation?
    “even hotter in reality than what the gov’t says it is …”
    Isn’t this something folks have long ragged about on this forum and elsewhere? There’s been numerous threads over the years examining the various inflation measures (there are several). So, you’re entitled to your prejudice on that point. But why do you find the discrepancy between your own numbers and what the Federal Bureau of Statistics determines to be of greater importance today than it was 3 years ago or 10 years ago?
    “that 4% 1 year TBill looks puffy good to me right now”
    Good. Glad you find TBills a good investment for your needs. Bear in mind that’s for just 1 year. Equity investors by nature are investing for much longer periods. Contemplate that if you harvest your 4% TBill a year from now, you might find that stocks in general have appreciated more than 4%. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think they might. (Some I own move 4% in a single day.) In such case, you will have lost ground and possibly face buying in to equities than at a net loss. If inflation is running as “hot” as you think, why are you comfortable with just 4%?