In the -$95 billion/mo QT (full level starting mid-September), -$60 billion/mo in Treasuries can just roll-off, but -$35 billion/mo in MBS may not be from roll-off alone, so the Fed may actually have to sell MBS. The mortgage rates are already above 6%. This may not be priced in as there isn't much history or experience with QT (Fed doesn't claim that it knows).
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-mortgages-mortgage-rates-90d3b63fe4dd8b81d6765375d403cb8e

Hi Sir Baseball fans
Think everything maybe priced in... Mr Market know 95b QT restrictions for several wks now since Uncle Powell spoke few months ago before Jackson Hole. IMHO Feds maybe slow down first then maybe pivot in 4 6 months next spring but maybe not right away... Lots pundits screaming deflationary actions soon (least we see lots supplies at major retail chains causing them slash prices, woods timber took big hits, over supplies oil also large 20s% haircuts, less demands for silver copper/commodities because of recession/expect severe global economic slow down next yr, and China economy continued shut down from c19 (perhaps late fall winter too) .. Lots economists expert expect inflation may slow down in the near future then stay above 4% until late 2023.... Think next cpi forcast is expect lowered than 8.1%
I think slv copper charts look very good (? Bottom consolidation) but we don't know if prices could be slashed further down in 4 6 wks
Cathy Woods/ Musk screaming deflationary soon but who really knows
Friends say feds may pivot sp500 slashed below 3500 and inflation cooled off

@johnN,
Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...
Best,
Baseball Fan

@larryB, individual TIPS held to maturity (at brokerages or Treasury Direct) should follow the CPI ($$CPI) less the premium/discount at purchase. TIPS mutual funds have many other drivers; in the chart, ST STIP and VTIP are almost indistinguishable; IT/LT TIP is the worst.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=STIP,$$CPI,TIP&id=p23210538339

Yesterday market after hr verything slightly pass critical 50d ma
Let see if support hold end of day
Lots big whales retail investors betting sp500 finish near 3950-4000 w puts calls quadruple witching day.... If no support below 3900 we may test June lower lows soon
Sp500 near 3900 critical keys levels
Equities appears cheaper again w this cycles rsi very low/very attractive prices, oil maybe screaming buys too... How low can we go though. UUP-USD, Ust2 yr ust5 yr ust 10 yr so expensive now.
I added little more RIVN SOXL XLF SLV SP500 But very little yesterday
Cryptos slight mixed morning hrs, not sure equities follow w market openings /rally later
Big whales institutions holding record cash now maybe short squeezes rally follow soon??
Lots hedgy managers /money managers saying Feds and QT/Demand destruction/ overshoot-deflation/Feds may pivot (slow down ease down gas paddles) soon in ?12 16 wks. Maybe 1% this time w another 0.25% hike next month then iddle in few months by Xmas.
Who knows things may get better in 9 12 months?!!
Ray Dalio Says Stocks Could Fall 20%. Here's What the Charts Say.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ray-dalio-says-stocks-could-fall-20-heres-what-the-charts-say?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

Siemens. Green hydrogen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/green-hydrogen-siemens-commissions-german-production-plant.html

:)
I was moved by all this to reread the June 18 feature piece in Barron’s in which they recommend investing in any of 5 money managers they covered. All were down 30-40% back than. About where they are today. Blackrock & TRP headed their list of favorites. Just interesting to mull. No need to do anything while the bricks fall. Certainly cash has outshined most other investments this year.
Last few lines of Pete Seeger’s “Turn! Turn! Turn!” might apply to investing.
To Everything (Turn, Turn, Turn)
There is a season (Turn, Turn, Turn)
And a time for every purpose, under Heaven
A time to gain, a time to lose
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time to love, a time to hate
A time for peace, I swear it's not too late

Yields........a chart view
This is not a performance chart, but a percentage of change chart in yield. I've peeked at this periodically for a number of years......for the chart perspective.
The chart is set for YTD. You may double click the 178 box below the chart, enter a different number of days and ENTER key; OR right click the box and choose from the menu.
The yield on any date will be shown with "hovering" the cursor on top of a selected chart line.
Pillow time.
Catch

SELL: STIP. short TIPS. -1.56% YTD. Not only failing to fight inflation but failing to keep pace with my grandson’s piggy bank which is even YTD. 3.9% 1 year CD’s or a CD ladder seem better to me than losing on the safe side of my portfolio. I just don’t see TIPS etf turning around soon. I will miss the ridiculously high monthly income but losing is losing.

@hank- Absolutely not... I thought that I was very clear on that: just hold them until this whole thing turns around. There's nothing intrinsically "wrong" with either of them.

Thanks @Old_Joe. Point taken. Generally, paying less attention to the ups and down of a holding is a good idea. However, if I owned something that had shed 43% of its value in fewer than 9 months I’d find it hard to “forget” about it. That leaves just 57% of the original pot. It would take, by my math, a 75% increase from there just to get back to even.
I hope I did not suggest there’s anything intrinsically wrong with TRP. I’m not informed enough or smart enough to know whether that’s the case. It’s a dog-eat-dog business they are in. Lots of top-notch competitors. To the extent investors have grown more fee conscious / fee averse over the years (owing in great measure to superb informative forums like Mutual Fund Observer), older higher fee management firms may well be at a disadvantage against some of their lower cost competitors.

I replaced AB with SCHW (free Stockcharts display limit is 5 tickers) but kept 1 yr (any other timeframe later defaults to 1 yr).
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SCHW&compare=BEN,BLK,IVZ,TROW&id=p54544772817

ETFs IYG, IAI don't have much exposure to fund-stocks. Here are 5 fund-stocks AB, BEN, BLK, IVZ, TROW and TROW is not doing well in this group.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=AB&compare=BEN,BLK,IVZ,TROW&id=p36589705458

"TROW is off 43% YTD. That’s about 3X what the Dow has lost (15%). More than double the decline in the S&P (18%) and down substantially more than the NASDAQ (26%)."
Take a look at Schwab. Makes TROW look not so bad. I really doubt that in the long run either TROW or SCHW are big-time losers. In a market like this one nothing makes much sense... just hold on and watch until it's over and the screen credits are rolling.

FWIW - I do not intend to buy TROW at any price. Doesn’t fit my allocation model except as a possible speculative play. Spec holdings are limited to 12% of total portfolio, and that’s pretty full-up at present. No room to add.
TROW is off 43% YTD. That’s about 3X what the Dow has lost (15%). More than double the decline in the S&P (18%) and down substantially more than the NASDAQ (26%).
Not recommending anyone buy TROW. Posted the link initially as a curiosity of sorts stemming from its being in the mutual fund business.

Yup, Schwab has a bunch of stuff to finish the integration with TDA. I'm *still* waiting for ThinkDesktop to be migrated so I don't need to use that for streaming quotes/active charting and then switch into the website to place orders/trade. Hope that migration happens soon b/c the StreetSmart 'platform' they offer in my view is horrible and reminds me too much of the old Options Express (who they bought) active platform which gave me fits 15 years ago...I refuse to use it.

@ hank : Any chance Schwab could buy them ?
Just a thought, Derf

@Derf - I’ve had a similar thought, but haven’t looked at it enough to have any opinion.
TRP’s issues run deep. I’d expect a nice bounce someday, but wouldn’t want to hold longer term. Here’s a story highlighting their problems. The exodus to low cost ETFs is a large part part of the issue. Yes - a potential buyout target. But who? TRP’s $25 billion market cap is easily within Buffet’s means, but this isn’t the type of company he appears to like. Can’t blame him. Feast or famine.

ETFs IYG (financial services) and IAI (brokers-dealers) have several brokers.
Price/TROW is doing much worse than more diversified brokers-dealers/fin-svcs.
Schwab/SCHW has to yet digest TD Ameritrade and brokerage parts of USAA. It may not buy anything for a while.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=TROW&compare=IAI,IYG&id=p15922107105

Just a heads up. TROW dropped below $112 late in the day. Tantalizing …
Thought about pouncing 5-10 minutes before the close. But everything I do needs to conform to pre-established allocation model. Spec is already near upper limit. So, didn’t move on it. If it falls much further, I’ll find a spot for it.
The thing is … money management / brokerage will probably suffer as long as equities overall are in a dour mood. And who knows how long before that turns up?
TROW closed at $112.08 today.

@LewisBraham
Unfortunately this is not the ugliest and most dangerous "completely false" tale being pushed out there, but it reinforces the others. ie the "Deep State" has control of the Government and is consciously trying to destroy traditional values of hard work, Christianity and "Capitalism".
The statistic that always impresses me is the % of the nation's wealth in the hands of the top 1% ( or 2% or 5%) vs bottom 20%, and the fact that for the lower 20 to 50% of the population inflation adjusted wages have not changed in 50 years

NBC and NPR also reported the same news too.
https://nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-announces-tentative-deal-avert-us-rail-strike-rcna47850
Excerpt from NPR,

The deal also includes changes to workplace attendance policies that workers found overly punitive. Under the tentative agreement, workers will be able to take time off for medical care without facing discipline, the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the SMART Transportation Division confirmed in a joint statement.

https://npr.org/2022/09/15/1123114110/biden-says-a-tentative-railway-labor-deal-has-been-reached-averting-a-strike
Digging deeper into this story, there is a lot going on that the public is not aware of.
https://npr.org/2022/09/14/1122918098/railroads-freight-rail-union-strike-train-workers