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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/31/22
    For the week ending on 8/31/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (50.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (21.9%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.7%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -28.5% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (27+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=764
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • There are 'unusually attractive' prices for promising companies, says Ron Baron
    And looky-here! On a stinky smelly day like today, with everything in the red, guess what turned UPWARD in today's trading, on 31st Aug, '22? Yes, you guessed it: BHB. Bar Harbor Bank. God bless Bar Harbor Bank. Monthly div. comes overnight from TUHYX, for what it's worth.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=lyrics+when+the+ship+comes+in+dylan&rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS1007US1007&oq=lyrics+when+the+ship+&ie=UTF-8
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Asia/Australia market overnight
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/asia-markets-china-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-south-korea-gdp-stocks.html
    Mostly red
    Most indexes are at 50ma and critical levels, hope may get bounce tomorrow and reverse but only time will tell. Breadth of market also lost momentum, maybe much more pains / blood baths ahead
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • The bottom are likely in
    Thank you Sirs Mr Catch and Mr Sven
    I think I am doing good mentality and physically.
    We did have a 6% of double dip when sp500 reached 200 days ma last wk before Jackson Hole meeting. One week and it's night and day differences.
    I Only traded 5% of portfolio so it's ok take little loss but difficult see losses and almost impossible beat indexes.
    Bulk of portfolio in long term positions w bonds and sp500, indexes, small caps, vang2055, mid caps; think I have little bit hedging/buffer help from bonds so portfolio did not nosedive.
    I read somewhere that some firm did background research and found those did so well long terms (I think) over 10 15 yrs were investors that either deceased or forgot they had an account. So active sometimes not as good as passive....
    Maybe time to let boat sail by themselves down river/ oceans.
    Papa loves Bee Gees so do I.
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • The bottom are likely in
    image
    hank in Other Investing
  • CD Question
    Just bought 1-year CDs at 3.15%. Expect interest rates to go up and may purchase additional CDs in the future.
    As a retiree, I am currently in a capital preservation mode until I get a better sense of how far the Fed will go, and how the market reacts to the anticipated rate hikes down the road. At this time, I am in no hurry to put money into bond or stock funds. At my age, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
    Good luck,
    Fred
    fred495 in Other Investing
  • CD Question
    "I believe 6-12 months CDs are reasonable as one can build CD ladders."
    Yes, that's what I'm doing at this point. 3.15%/1 year isn't great, but it's better than nothing.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • yes, and i was just about to throw $$$ at LEV
    @PRESSmUP, CHPT is on my watch list and would appreciate what you learn from the earnings call. Thanks.
    Well, the market apparently likes what they heard. They are certainly expanding their footprint and making great strides in several different verticals. Of course, they still aren't profitable, but with expected revenues of $500M and 96% year over year increases, I suppose it will come. I bought Tuesday, the day prior to earnings, and I'm up >10% so there's that. With all these EV's coming on line, it's a race to see who deserves a leadership role here. It's speculative, for sure.
    PRESSmUP PRESSmUP in Other Investing
  • NASDAQ Now Down 24% YTD
    S&P500 reached -20% loss in June. Will it retest the bottom agin. In the past, the month of September has not been good to the stock market.
    The following chart of Bear Markets since WWII is sobering. (This is not a prediction.)
    https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-bear-markets-since-world-war-ii/
    My dumb toilet analogy depicts what it feels like to add money to an asset class that’s “enjoying” a downtrend. But if you believe in rebalancing that’s part of the game. Take the lumps along with the cherries.
    hank in Other Investing
  • more lockdowns in China.
    China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major cities. China’s vaccines are only 52% against Alpha strain. By now, they are even less efficient against Omacron 4/5. The combination of high population and lack of efficient immunization, They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
    Sven in Other Investing
  • NASDAQ Now Down 24% YTD
    S&P500 reached -20% loss in June. Will it retest the bottom agin. In the past, the month of September has not been good to the stock market.
    Sven in Other Investing
  • europe. cum ex scandal
    JPMorgan is only the latest bank to be raided.
    From four months ago:
    The German branch of Morgan Stanley was searched by prosecutors in Frankfurt in relation to "past activity" on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the U.S. bank said.
    ...
    A large number of banks were involved in the cum-ex deals: In the past few weeks alone there have been raids on the German branches of Barclays and the investment bank Merrill Lynch.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frankfurt-bank-two-homes-searched-relation-cum-ex-scandal-2022-05-03/
    The Financial Times reports that:
    Prosecutors have been investigating the scandal for years, but the inquiry was stepped up last month when a former senior banker from Fortis bank was arrested in Mallorca at the request of Frankfurt prosecutors.
    https://www.ft.com/content/84ad1e87-cad2-47d7-832f-5025b74a081d
    (Subscription usually required, though google search may yield access)
    As Reuters noted years ago, this was a legal loophole in Germany until 2012, though courts have ruled otherwise.
    German banks exploited a legal loophole that allowed two parties to claim ownership of the same shares. ... The loophole was closed in 2012, with the means of claiming double ownership banned. ... a German regional court ruling in February [2016] found there was no legal basis for the double claiming of rebates, even before it was banned in 2012
    https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-dividends/dividend-tax-scandal-how-banks-short-changed-germany-idUSL8N1991BN
    I like the NYTimes description from 2020:
    The scheme was built around “cum-ex trading” (from the Latin for “with-without”): a monetary maneuver to avoid double taxation of investment profits that plays out like high finance’s answer to a David Copperfield stage illusion. Through careful timing, and the coordination of a dozen different transactions, cum-ex trades produced two refunds for dividend tax paid on one basket of stocks.
    One basket of stocks. Abracadabra. Two refunds.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/business/cum-ex.html
    The US has a distantly related form of legerdemain. In the EU, these banks took one basket of stocks and pretended (legal fiction) that it had been taxed twice, In the US, mutual funds and ETFs take one basket of stocks, sell it (via redemption in kind), and pretend (legal fiction) that no sales have taken place. Abracadabra. No capital gains recognized (IRC §852(b)(6)), tax averted.
    The main difference seems to be that the EU fiction had a fraudulent intent; the US fiction is out in the open - no fraud. Either way, the legal fictions are tax loopholes.
    msf in Other Investing
  • europe. cum ex scandal
    News tonight here, just before midnight on Oahu. Authorities are raiding the JPM bank office in Hamburg in connection with the investigation. unscrupulous pig-farts playing with loopholes again. I'd simply like to see that sort of person exterminated from the face of the earth. sonsofbitches.
    https://www.dw.com/en/cum-ex-fraud-case-causes-a-headache-for-germanys-olaf-scholz/a-62785891#:~:text=The cum-ex scandal was,"ex")%20dividend%20rights.
    despicable scum.
    https://left.eu/content/uploads/2019/01/explainer_Cum-Ex.pdf
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • NASDAQ Now Down 24% YTD
    YTD Numbers from Bloomberg on 8/30
    Dow -12.51%
    S&P -16.37%
    NASDAQ -24.04%
    Them’s some serious losses. Today commodities got crushed. Many funds or stocks in that sector off 2-4% for the day.
    Added a little to the pulverized metals & commodities sector today. Follow the action below.

    hank in Other Investing
  • There are 'unusually attractive' prices for promising companies, says Ron Baron
    Everything hammered include commodities gush -10%
    Surprising ust10yrs flatlined
    May need sit tight wait awhile for 2-6 months
    Prob consolidation sideway stagnations/ 5 -7% downturns for quite awhile [ few months]
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 7/31/22
    There were notable moves into stock funds from other categories. The changes in the totals were based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $29.46 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $294.6 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.
    OEFs: Stocks 52.45%, Hybrids 7.11%, Bonds 20.87%, M-Mkt 19.57%
    ETFs: Stocks 80.81%, Hybrids 0.53%, Bonds 18.66%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.68%, Hybrids 5.66%, Bonds 20.39%, M-Mkt 15.27%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=760
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • News link only: Saudi Aramco busted through the roof with profit
    Very scare oil now
    Prob won't buy more
    Oil energy seem plateau, so expensive to jump in
    Maybe good buy oil bonds or sale weekly put bet -15% off price
    Updated
    Oil big dumps off today wti -10% haircuts
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • VettaFi
    @Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
    This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
    1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
    2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in 2020.
    Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).
    Thanks, @yogibearbull. Extremely detailed and useful! :)
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • Fed’s Kashkari “Happy” to see stock market falling …
    I've followed Mr. K, off and on, periodically. He seems to be quite full of himself. Being a U.S. President has surely passed through his thoughts before sleep arrives.
    Me thinks Mr. K likes the shiny lights circuit, ya know; the big top. He's not a dummy, but I believe he's quite sure his shite never stinks, must be someone else.
    Can you say, "Power" ?
    Obviously, he doesn't care much about the wee folk and their IRA's, 401k's, 403b's or 457's and playing with their money.
    Time at the cabin
    Mr. K, "Please, I want to be your governor"
    catch22 catch22 in Other Investing
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    @BaluBalu, I tried LAST week but couldn't find anything on Abel's transaction on Edgar/SEC, but I am not an expert user.
    I ran into this Barron's piece TODAY that says that the transaction was mentioned in BRK filing. As the article may require subscription, I am providing relevant excerpts below. https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-utility-51661548484?mod=bol-social-tw
    ".....Berkshire Hathaway Energy isn’t publicly traded, but its value was highlighted in June, when it bought back a 1% stake in the business from Greg Abel, a Berkshire executive who is seen as likely to succeed Buffett as CEO. BHE paid $870 million for that 1% interest, according to Berkshire’s second-quarter 10-Q filing, which was released earlier in August.....That values the company at $87 billion.....price seems fair at roughly 22 times BHE’s net income last year, in line with other big utilities....."
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions