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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    Trading volume coming down, though still very high for its AUM size, which was $11.1M as of Friday close.
  • High yield long term CDs
    This might also be mildly good news for prospective new issue T-bill buyers. If I remember correctly, the expected yield on a 6 month T-bill was 5.42% on Wednesday and 5.45% on Friday.
    Unlike new CDs, when you put in an "indication of interest" in a new T-bill, your rate is not locked in. Expectations rise and fall; what matters is what happens at the actual auction.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    My Health insurance premium for 2024 is 11% higher than what it is in 2023. I have not checked how much the deductible and co-pay increased.
  • High yield long term CDs
    Some large slugs of CP New Issues were posted on Fido (and I assume all brokerage platforms) this AM as is the usual case on Mondays and Tuesdays. (Other days as well, but M&T are usually the larger load days.)
    One of the caveats of placing New Issue CD Orders is that they sit in queue pending BUY on the Settlement Date. So you're still "in the game" so to speak, whether you know it or not!
    To wit: I had two pending New Issue, CP, CD Orders in queue at Fido from last week, one 4-yr and one 5-yr. For each maturity, newly posted New Issues today are 0.05% higher for each of my respective pending Orders.
    So...I duly Cancelled my two pending Orders and entered two new BUYs for the fractionally higher ones. Bottom Line? An extra $225 in my pocket over the life of the CDs for all of 10 minutes work today.
    Also...These two newbies do not have Settlement Dates until Dec 5 (NOTE: Many times they settle a coupla days BEFORE the Settlement Date) so I will stay vigilant as they pend, watching for any other ticks UP, until the BUYs execute in hopes of pocketing a few more bucks. If so, Rinse, Repeat. (Two lines I ALWAYS wait in - FREE ice cream and FREE money!)
    Easy Peezy! (Lookin' at you Joey, Sr!)
    Aside: This is overall mildly GOOD news for prospective CD BUYers. The most recent trend (from early Nov) was definitely lower inventory offerings and CD rates DOWN. (And LOTS of BUYers gobbling up turkey, er, the inventories.) Very nice to see some BIG adds to the inventories that were (at least) fractionally HIGHER than the last inventory loads.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    Auto insurance renewal up +17%.
    This on top of up +17% last year AFTER I boosted collision-deductible to contain rate increase.
    This time, doing nothing.
  • Someone maybe help me parse this stuff? SEVN
    Some more background info:
    Intro piece on mREITS, including basic mechanics and risks:
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/real-estate-investments/articles/how-to-invest-in-mortgate-reits
    [Head of income equities at TCW, Iman] Brivanlou says: "Dividend yields are a direct function of the riskiness of the underlying collateral as well as the amount of leverage employed by the mREIT, so we would urge caution and increased scrutiny if an mREIT is offering an unusually high yield." ...
    "Most mREITs employ leverage to produce their returns," Brivanlou says. "Without leverage these entities could not operate profitably, which makes them dependent on a stable source of funding."
    The two main parts of the real estate market in which SEVN invest are middle market and transitional. Each is a section of the real estate market where one hopes to get above average returns with all that implies for risk. Background sources below are from companies working in these markets (thus interested in promoting them).
    Middle market: https://www.primealpha.com/middle-market-real-estate-2018-06
    Transitional: https://lev.co/blog/financing/transitional-real-estate/
    For a sense of rates associated with middle market, see p. 9 on Morgan Stanley's 3Q2023 report on floating rate loans. It shows that average coupons on middle market loans are higher than BBB, BB, and B rated leveraged floating rate leveraged loans, and only slightly higher than coupons on CCC rated loans. CCC's 19.4% YTW is way above market average; middle market at 13.6% is next highest, still well above market average.
    https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_floatingrateloanmarketmonitor_q32023.pdf
    To refine yogi's comment about most of the YTD return coming from January, SEVN gave back 3/4 of that gain between March and May, and then gained a similar amount from May to July.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SEVN&compare=&id=p67735641417
    Over the past five years, its total return has been almost exactly zero. I'd call that "flat", except that its volatility is off the scale. See this comparison with JNK:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SEVN&compare=JNK&id=p02208364318
  • Small Caps
    FWIW - I noted that the Bloomberg article I linked was from 2013 in making my point that PRNHX has seen better days. Ellenbogen’s earlier tenure was part of the reason.
  • Someone maybe help me parse this stuff? SEVN
    @yogibearbull. @rforno.
    I'm much obliged for your responses! Ya, SEVN does not need any of my money.
    PSTL: (Seeking Alpha, from last May:)
    "...At Portfolio Income Solutions we maintain an archive of historical Tax Treatment of REIT Dividends for more than 130 REITs. A look at Postal Realty’s page describes that ~35% of the dividend has been characterized as a Return of Capital (ROC) since its IPO. ROC is not currently taxable as income, so the current year’s tax liability is lower than that of an ordinary dividend. No tax on the ROC is due until the shares are sold. A retiree living on dividend income enjoys a sense of higher current cash flow....
    The mention of PSTL as a possible takeover taget was from a Seeking Alpha article I read over this long week-end. Of course, I can't find it, now.
  • Small Caps
    PRNHX is a MCG fund (and not a very good one!) and it is NOT Closed.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prnhx/portfolio
    Click on "Weight" in "Style Box"
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/779562107
    Overweight tech and healthcare, no wonder it's suffering recently. Eight percent foreign likely doesn't help.
    I should add that it also has a new manager. I wouldn't stay in PRWCX if Giroux left.
  • Small Caps
    Henry Ellenbogen moved on from PRNHX in 2019 and founded Durable Capital. He was/is a member of Barron's Annual Roundtable that is published every January. Amazingly, Barron's kept him as a Roundtable Member even around his 2019 transition when he left Price to start Durable, and was really without any job for a while until Durable was up and running.
  • Small Caps
    ”PRNHX is a MCG fund (and not a very good one!) and it is NOT Closed.”
    Thanks for helping make my point. As I noted earlier, PRNHX has not been a very good fund recently. But a decade or so ago it was.
    Bloomberg (subscription only) article from August 18, 2013:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-08-16/john-laporte-t-rowe-price-manager-who-beat-peers-dies-at-68
    A few excerpts from above linked article:
    - “John H. Laporte, a onetime Morningstar fund manager of the year who beat three-fourths of his peers in his 22 years managing T. Rowe Price Group Inc.'s New Horizons Fund, has died. He was 68.”
    - “From 1987 to 2010 he was lead portfolio manager for small-cap growth portfolios as well as chairman of the investment advisory committee for New Horizons, one of the firm's oldest funds, created by firm founder Thomas Rowe Price Jr. in 1960.”Laporte oversaw a quintupling of assets in the fund, to $5.9 billion, during the two decades he ran it.”
    - “Morningstar Mutual Funds, a newsletter published by Chicago-based Morningstar Inc., named him domestic stock fund manager of the year after New Horizons returned 55 percent in 1995 compared with 30 percent for the Russell 2000 Index.”
    - “His successor at the helm of New Horizons, Henry Ellenbogen, hasn't dropped the torch. The fund had the highest total return over the past three years and the best risk-adjusted performance among small-cap funds that buy U.S. stocks, according to the Bloomberg Riskless Return Ranking. As of July 31 it had $13.2 billion in assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, more than twice as much as when Laporte left.”
    That was then. This is now. Memory is a funny thing.
  • Small Caps
    PRNHX is a MCG fund (and not a very good one!) and it is NOT Closed.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prnhx/portfolio
    Click on "Weight" in "Style Box"
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/779562107
  • Someone maybe help me parse this stuff? SEVN
    Seven Hills REIT out of Newton, a Boston suburb.
    https://sevnreit.com/investment-strategy/default.aspx#mandate
    If I'm understanding the lingo, it just sounds different from the PSTL REIT I own. (I do not yet own SEVN.)
    There is phrasing on the website about their investments/loans being "secured" by some particular other properties. The yield on this puppy is OVER 12%. That's nuts, eh? There are 2 Analyst ratings. Just two, and both rate the stock as a BUY.
    Where does this sort of outfit fall on the risk spectrum?
    Incidentally, I bumped into an article mentioning PSTL as a possible takeover target. Hmmmmm...
  • Rondure Global Advisors 3rd qtr. 2023 commentary
    After Laura Geritz founded Rondure, there were numerous articles praising her prior record at Wasatch.
    I thought ROSOX might be a potentially good foreign fund.
    I haven't followed the fund or firm for years.
    ROSOX performance has certainly been underwhelming.
    The fund's 5 Yr return (as of 11/24/23) of only 0.85% lagged 99% of Foreign Large Growth funds.
  • Small Caps
    “ … I see nothing bad in holding 10 to 15 % in SC, SV, or a blend of the two.”
    That’s a reasonable assessment @Derf. For a disciplined investor adhering to a well thought out model portfolio and rebalancing from time to time, a 10-15% allocation to a keg of dynamite like that (+58% / - 37%) could make sense. I fear the average retail investor would buy high and sell low. That’s all. Suppose I own a few dynamite holdings myself - but in very small quantity.
    As a 30-35 year veteran of TRP’s funds (and remembering the “hay-days” of PRNEX PRNHX it’s difficult to understand how that fund could have lost so much in 2022. Wondering if investor outflows played a part …
  • Small Caps
    @Crash : No judgement, just a comment. From prior posts , You're looking for a hand off to your wife due to age difference. For that reason I see nothing bad in holding 10 to 15 % in SC, SV, or a blend of the two.
    Just my 2 cents, Derf
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    November 23 Episode:
    Two leading municipal bond managers, Duane McAllister and Lyle Fitterer, who oversee Baird’s award-winning suite of municipal bond funds, including its 5-star, Silver-rated Baird Core Intermediate Municipal Bond Fund, present a compelling case for muni bonds.


  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    The M* "Thrilling" 31 Mutual Funds (This is a 2022 List...2023 requires M* membership):
    This is an updated version of an article that originally appeared in the July 2022 issue of FundInvestor. Russ owns POAGX, RPMGX, VPCCX.
    It’s time once again for our popular Thrilling 31 feature. As you may recall, this is a list I generate with a few simple, strict screens to narrow a universe of 15,000 fund share classes to a short list ranging between 25 and 50. It’s purely a screen; I don’t make any additions or subtractions. So, if your favorite fund didn’t make the cut, it is because it failed a test, not because I hate it.
    The basic idea is that with so many funds out there you can be choosy. It’s better to be choosy by setting high standards on the most important factors rather than screening on a lot of minor data points. I emphasize fees, the Morningstar Analyst Rating, long-term performance, and fund company quality.
    https://morningstar.com/funds/thrilling-31-list-great-funds
  • Small Caps
    Just took a look at a legendary small cap offering from TRP (PRNHX). .... ice in your veins... FWIW - M*’s analysts award it a “silver” rating, their second highest.
    Suppose funds like that are great for speculating. But a difficult long term hold. Brings to mind @Mark’s recent quip about being left without a chair when the music stops.
    Precisely why I'm not biting. I will own no dedicated small-cap funds, going forward. I haven't, for quite a while now. "It's the volatility, stupid!" Some of my fund managers have me up to 13% of total equities in small caps. That's more than enough for me. Maybe BRUFX has something to do with that? Wife's T-IRA.