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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FOMC Statement, 7/27/22
    Re the Fed statement and policy …
    Fascinating interview in this week’s Barron’s with veteran money manager Richard Bernstein. Didn’t care much for him when he made a few appearances on the old Wall Street Week with Rukeyser show near the end of Lou’s long run. But seems sharper / more introspective now.
    “The Fed is so far behind inflation that I believe that maybe we just don't land. Maybe we'll slow the real economy, but not the nominal economy.”
    Bernstein feels the Fed’s target rate is 5 or 6% behind what’s needed to curb inflation. By “not landing”, he means the economy slows for a while, dampening inflation temporarily, but not halting the upward spiral in the years ahead. Dunno. But ISTM Bernstein’s take is right in line with numerous other Wall Street veteran observers including Larry Summers (This week’s Bloomberg Wall Street Week) and Randal Forsyth’s sources (voiced in his Up & Down Wall Street column in the same issue of Barron’s) A pattern of thought emerging on this point whether correct or incorrect.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    @fred495- Yes sir, as did I at Schwab. As rates continue to climb I'll be adding rungs to our ladder.
    Add: just checked Schwab- no more there either.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Bought a 1-year Wells Fargo Bank CD yesterday from Fidelity at 3.05%. Today, no longer available. Only remaining 1-year CD is from another bank at 2.90%.
    Looks like they are selling like hot cakes.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Not locking my money up for fixed rate for a year now. Rates will be increasing across the board at least rest of year. Merchant Bank of Indiana 2.75% flex CD. As rates rise so does CD rate...jus sayin!
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Yes, it's a very nicely done site, but it missed the 3.05% CDs offered in SF and Utah (presumably Salt Lake City) shown at Schwab.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Our local banks and credit unions does not offer rates competitive to those found in brokerages.
    Fidelity and Vanguard offer the same 1 year CDs that yield 3.05%.
    Why is this so? In years past my CU's CD rates equaled or exceeded those of major firms.
    Now they are far behind.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Our local banks and credit unions does not offer rates competitive to those found in brokerages.
    Fidelity and Vanguard offer the same 1 year CDs that yield 3.05%.
  • FOMC Statement, 7/27/22
    Jerome Powell recently stated that the current 2.25% - 2.50% Fed Funds Rate is neutral.
    The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the PCE Price Index.
    Year over year, PCE prices increased 6.3% for the period ending in May (latest available stats).
    Excluding food and energy, the increase was 4.7% during this period.
    Rent and owners' equivalent rent are important PCE components which typically lag home price growth by approximately a year. Prices for these two components will increase in the months ahead.
    Also, the Employment Cost Index indicated that private workers' wages and salaries increased 5.7% for the 12-month period ending in June.
    Current monetary policy is still too accommodative.
  • Buffered ETFs: A Comprehensive Guide
    Barron's published an article about buffered ETFs this week.
    "Most issuers offer a monthly series of defined-outcome ETFs, with the outcome period typically starting on the first trading day of each month, although some offer quarterly products."
    "While the ETFs can be bought or sold at any time, to receive the advertised buffer and cap when the ETF resets, investors have to hold the fund through the full outcome period, which is typically one year from the day that the outcome period starts, says Bruce Bond, CEO of Innovator ETFs, which pioneered the strategy."
    "There are some caveats. The ETFs are significantly more expensive than the S&P 500 ETF or the Nasdaq-based Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ), which annually cost 0.09% and 0.20%, respectively."
    "The biggest caveat are the funds’ upside caps; in strong bull markets, such as 2021’s, they will underperform. That’s seen in the return of the Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF–January (BJAN), which had an outcome period of Jan. 1, 2021 to Dec. 31, 2021. This fund had a 15% downside buffer and a 15% cap.
    Its return was 14%, net of fees, versus the S&P 500 ETF Trust’s 2021 return of 27%."

    Link
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Making money by losing less is how legendary small-cap value manager Charlie Dreifus has succeeded for over 50 years of investing. It’s even more important now as he expects more economic and market pain ahead.


  • Your buy - sells July forward
    Prob buy more Meta qqqm xlf tsla lcid spy vang2050 monday
    Bottom likely in
    Becareful of double dip/stagnation and another 10% -15% leg down next 3 6 wks
    Very difficult to tell so far but odds little lowered compared last wk
    Good news usdollar downtrends and oil commodities little downtrends also last wk
    https://mobile.twitter.com/WillieDelwiche/status/1553056509747236864?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-says-market-bottom-near-120000886.html
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Bonds are not CDs, but most CDs are guaranteed by the FDIC--- unless you belong to a Credit Union like I belong to, in the Los Angeles suburbs: deposits are PRIVATELY insured. (GASCU, not GASFCU.)
    Anyhow, I hate to once again mention this, and I don't recommend it for political reasons: The State of Israel has never defaulted. In 2003, I snagged a 10-year Zero animal at 5.68%. After maturity, I almost doubled my money.
    These bonds are offered Stateside, in DOLLARS. The offered rates might deserve your attention. I note a 5-year bond at 4.68%. (But it's not a "Zero." Perhaps it could be arranged to re-invest the dividends?)
    There are no 10-year beasts being offered these days. And I do believe these bonds are non-callable, too.
    https://www.israelbonds.com/Offerings-Rates/Current-Rates.aspx
  • the underreported boondoggle of fracking
    Hi @Derf and @Old_Joe et al PBS Frontline produced Gasland in 2010 regarding the problems with fracking in the Marcellus range in Pennsylvania. The pressurized system used for fracking was pushing gases into the private/muni well systems........thus "burning water at the faucet". A Gasland, part 2 was also produced related to the mini earthquakes becoming frequent in the southwest from the fracking methods. There are numerous video sources; however, I don't know that one will find the full original, even with a PBS membership. For those who have access to OnDemand via a cable system, you may search the name and perhaps discover the program, as I recall HBO running the program, too.
    The link below offers various online sources that are related to the problem.
    GASLAND links
  • Current New Issue CDs
    In case anyone is interested, new issue FDIC CDs at Schwab are currently at 3.05% for one-year issues. I would surmise that similar issues are available at other brokers also.
  • Several Rockefeller Funds to be liquidated
    I have a small $ amount in the Rockefeller Climate Solutions Fund, which they set up from their LLP that has been running for several years. The Rockefeller foundation and family office have dumped XOM etc and are trying to make up for John D's creation of the global oil industry.
    As the press release below indicates, the fund is run by the Asset Management company. I don't know what the role of "Trust for Professional Mangers" is although there are a lot of other funds, some pretty well known on that list
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210923005097/en/Rockefeller-Asset-Management-Launches-Climate-Solutions-Fund-Expanding-Audience-for-Strategy-with-9-Year-Track-Record
    Rockefeller Asset Management Launches Climate Solutions Fund, Expanding Audience for Strategy with 9-Year Track Record
    September 23, 2021 08:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time
    NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rockefeller Asset Management (RAM), a division of Rockefeller Capital Management, recently launched the Rockefeller Climate Solutions Fund (RKCIX), seeking long-term capital growth by investing in companies focused on climate change mitigation or adaptation solutions across the market capitalization spectrum. The Fund, which launched with nearly $100mn in assets and several underlying investors, was converted from a Limited Partnership structure with the same investment objective and a 9-year track record. In addition, the firm has partnered with Skypoint Capital Partners as the Fund’s third party wholesale marketing agent.
    “Climate change is becoming a defining issue of our time. We believe investors can generate alpha and positive outcomes by investing in companies producing climate mitigation or adaption solutions with distinct competitive advantages, clear growth catalysts, strong management teams, and attractive earnings potential.”
    RAM, in collaboration with The Ocean Foundation (TOF), established the Climate Solutions Strategy nine years ago based on the belief that climate change will transform economies and markets through changing regulation, shifting buying preferences from next-generation consumers, and technological advancements. This global equity strategy deploys a high conviction, bottom-up approach to investing in pure-play companies with meaningful revenue exposure to key environmental sectors such as renewable energy, energy efficiency, water, waste management, pollution control, food & sustainable agriculture, healthcare mitigation, and climate support services. The portfolio managers have long believed that there is significant investment opportunity in these public companies producing climate mitigation and adaptation solutions and that they have the potential to outperform broader equity markets over the long-term.
    Rockefeller Climate Solutions Fund is co-managed by Casey Clark, CFA, and Rolando Morillo, who lead RAM's thematic equity strategies, leveraging the intellectual capital built from RAM's three decades of Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) investing experience. Since the inception of the Climate Solutions Strategy, RAM has also benefited from the environmental and scientific expertise of The Ocean Foundation, a non-profit dedicated to conserving ocean environments around the world. Mark J. Spalding, the President of TOF, and his team serve as advisors and research collaborators to help bridge the gap between science and investing and contribute to the strategies, idea generation, research, and engagement process.
    Rolando Morillo, Fund Portfolio Manager, says: "Climate change is becoming a defining issue of our time. We believe investors can generate alpha and positive outcomes by investing in companies producing climate mitigation or adaption solutions with distinct competitive advantages, clear growth catalysts, strong management teams, and attractive earnings potential."
    “RAM has been committed to continuously reinvesting in its investment team and ESG-integrated platform to support significant demand for its strategies, including thematic offerings like Climate Solutions, globally. The original LP structure was designed for clients of our family office. After nearly a decade, we are excited to make the strategy accessible to an expanded audience through the launch of our 40 Act Fund,” said Laura Esposito, Head of Institutional and Intermediary Distribution.
  • FOMC Statement, 7/27/22
    Among the post-FOMC data this week, Q2 GDP was yesterday (bad; -0.9%), and today were PCE (also bad; +6.8%, core +4.8%) and UM Sentiment (improved a bit to 51.5 from June low of 50 that spooked Powell at the June FOMC).
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/inflation-figure-that-the-fed-follows-closely-hits-highest-level-since-january-1982.html
    https://news.umich.edu/consumers-adjust-to-inflation-as-labor-market-expectations-worsen/
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    Weekly equity fund flows have turned positive, Lipper data via WSJ tweet. https://twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/1552820684014948352
    image
  • the underreported boondoggle of fracking
    Bio-fuel. Is that where they burn garbage and waste to produce the energy? Bio-Mass?

    No. Liquid fuels for things like trucks, rail, ships, tugs, even airplanes eventually--so they say, where batteries are not yet considered to be efficient. Which basically means bio-diesel. I think it will be awhile before people are ready to ride in an airplane filled with used vegetable oil.
    https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/05/03/martinez-refinery-to-start-producing-biofuels-instead-of-crude-oil/
    But fuel cells are also considered alternatives for some of those applications in the future.
    Thanks for the clarification. :)
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 6/30/22
    There were notable declines in the equity fund allocations. The changes in the totals are based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $30.25 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change is about +/- $302.5 billion. Also note that these changes are from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.
    OEFs: Stocks 51.00%, Hybrids 7.14%, Bonds 21.50%, M-Mkt 20.36%
    ETFs: Stocks 80.33%, Hybrids 0.54%, Bonds 19.13%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 57.35%, Hybrids 5.71%, Bonds 20.99%, M-Mkt 15.96%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=717