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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Cheer up! Other than inverse funds, TROW is the only thing I own or track that gained today. Up 10 cents to $111.63. (I do not own it.) That said, it’s down over 42% YTD.
    For perspective, both PRWCX and PRSIX are down over 14% YTD.
    At risk of being X-Rated …
    image
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    so many good companies down significantly /sp500 mid caps small caps techs [lots more than 70 80%]. maybe good nibble more if have extreme long term horizon [iwm vo voo nvda snow ionq etc]
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    There have been days when I thought people were throwing the baby out with the bathwater (i.e., capitulating), at least with respect to certain corners of the market, but I've been wrong thus far. After years during which my personal rate of inflation far outran the official numbers I'm now finding that those numbers are exceeding my cost of living increases (I'm paying more for gas and food but not rent, a mortgage refinance, a new or used car, etc.). Pretty soon it looks like returns on my cash could be catching up with what my mortgage is costing me in interest (2.75%). I've been dribbling money in, to absolutely no positive effect thus far. So, bringing this all back to the OP, I'm in the "bearish" sentiment category also.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    Fed fund futures market is going haywire showing 80% for 100 bps, followed by 75, 25, 25 to end at 3.75-4.00% in December.
    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    75% chance 100 points raised per Vegas I meant Wallstreet analysts
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    It has been a pretty long stretch already with poor Sentiment (a contrarian indicator).
    Q2 earnings season has bad reports from big banks (JPM, MS, etc).
    Then we have 75-100 bps rate hike by the FOMC in about 2 weeks.
    Will mid-June market lows hold or are we going below?
    Keep seatbelts ON and hang on tight.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    For the week ending on 7/13/22, Sentiment remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.5%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (26.6%; low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.9%; very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -19.6% (low). Investor concerns included recession; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (20+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down, gold flat, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=702
  • Stocks fall as Wall Street braces for huge hike in rates
    Prices at the consumer level were 9.1% higher last month than a year earlier, accelerating from May’s 8.6% inflation level. That also was worse than economists’ expectations for 8.8%.
    This will ensures 75 bps rate hike in July. Previous sighting of inflation peaking did not panned out.
    https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-fall-as-wall-street-braces-for-huge-hike-in-rates/ar-AAZw2O6?li=BBnb7Kz
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    @Derf: it used to be possible to average one’s income over 4-5 years, thereby reducing the pain from a big spike. The IRS did away with that provision, but I don’t know when.
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    Generally, with lots of exceptions, the IRS expects you to pay your taxes equally in each quarter. That should be pretty obvious, because otherwise everyone would skip their first three estimates and just pay everything on the last estimate.
    For estimated tax purposes, the year is divided into four payment periods. Each period has a specific payment due date. If you don’t pay enough tax by the due date of each of the payment periods, you may be charged a penalty even if you are due a refund when you file your income tax return.
    IRS Pub 505, When to Pay Estimated Taxes
    As Yogi wrote, withholdings are usually considered evenly applied. But if it advantageous to do so (e.g. if your withholdings are front loaded), "you may choose to include your withholding according to the actual dates on which the amounts will be withheld." Pub 505, instructions for Worksheet 2-7, line 31.
    However you choose to allocate withholdings, so long as you've paid in (estimates plus withholdings) of at least 1/4 of the total as of the first estimate deadline, 1/2 as of the 2nd estimate deadline, and 3/4 as of the third, the IRS doesn't care if these payments are even or not. However, if you back load the payments, the IRS does care. Unless your income was correspondingly back loaded.
    If your income was, say $15K in the first quarter, $15K in the second quarter, $15K in the third quarter, and (due to YE divs and cap gains) $45K in the last quarter, the IRS will allow you to pay in roughly half of your taxes in the last quarter.
    See Form 2210 for how the underpayment penalty is calculated, quarter by quarter. It has a Schedule AI (annualized income) where you can document how much income you received in each quarter. Based on those amounts, it adjusts how much you should have paid each quarter.
    This is not the easiest form to fill out and requires fairly detailed bookkeeping (e.g. how much interest did your bank pay you in April and May?). Like Ben, I am not a professional, but I have tried this at home more than a couple of times. I found it something to avoid unless one's income is very uneven.
    Still, it provides an escape in case you wind up with a lot of unexpected income in a quarter.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Note that SCHW is much more than an asset-manager. It is broker-dealer, custodian, bank, asset-manager, etc. IMO, it is not a peer of TROW.
    Your thoughts on a closer peer...JPM?
    Adding JPM to the comparison:
    TROW , SCHW, JPM
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    Thanks @Ben
    Your summary is in line with our understanding, too. Although not of consequence; one may pay estimated taxes at any time; not having to follow quarterly ending dates, to the best of our understanding. But, your note about Jan. 15th, 2023 is important, too; as we will fully know the tax impact at that time.
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    I am not a tax professional. What follows is simply my experience: The fourth estimated tax payment for 2022 is due Jan 15th 2023. So you can be quite precise about what you owe by then. But... the IRS says they will not punish a tax payer who pays in estimated taxes 100% of the tax due the previous year. So, whether in quarterly payments as I do, or in a lump sum, as my dad preferred doing, so long as you send the IRS estimated taxes equal to 100% of what your tax bill was in 2021, you are likely to be in accord with the rules of the IRS. You can pay the balance when you file your 2022 return some time before 4/15/ 2022. I hope this is helpful (I also hope it's accurate!)
  • Which is more important?
    The 30 day SEC yield is the best approximation of what a fund would return if it held its bonds to maturity/call. If one thinks of a portfolio consisting of a single bond, the SEC yield would be the YTW.
    For example, a 5 year bond selling at $104, with a 5% coupon would yield 4.1% to maturity. That's the same as buying a 5 year bond selling at par with a 4.1% coupon. From the point of view of your total return, no difference. These are even treated the same for tax purposes - the higher coupon is treated as return of principal, so that at the end of five years, cost basis of the first bond is $100.
    If what you care about is higher interest payments (5% vs. 4.1%) and the loss of 4% in principal (over the life of the bond) is not of concern, then look at the trailing or current yield. If what you care about is total return, including loss (or gain) in principal because bonds don't always trade at par, then look at SEC yield.
    There's another SEC yield figure, which is the 7 day yield. It is used for MMFs, and is effectively a current yield calculation. Which makes sense because MMF portfolios mature extremely quickly - current yield and YTW are very similar. With MMFs, looking at TTM is silly. Consider:
    VMFXX TTM (1 year) return was 0.17%, while its SEC (current) yield is 1.45%
    Vanguard MMFs
    Here's what Calamos says about 30 day SEC yield:
    30-day SEC yield was introduced in 1988 by the Securities and Exchange Commission to standardize the inputs mutual funds employ to calculate the statistic, allowing for a fairer comparison. The calculation uses the current yields to worst of all fixed income portfolio holdings to estimate how much interest the fund’s assets would have earned over the past 30-day period. After deducting the fund’s expenses and fees, the income earned is annualized and divided by the net asset value on the day of calculation. While standardized, the 30-day SEC yield is limited in that it is based on a static portfolio as of month-end. However, because 30-day SEC yield is based on the yield to worst methodology ..., it is more forward looking and can provide a more accurate indication of the income an investor might expect to receive.
    https://www.calamos.com/globalassets/media/documents/sales-ideas/yldcom-033031-0917o-c_final.pdf
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Backtesting these two stocks (TROW vs SCHW) with PV, nod to SCHW:
    Market Correlation for SCHW = .62, yet had a Max DD of 81% (between 2000- 2003)
    TROW vs SCHW
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    Last week's episode now available at YouTube -
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    The fact that 73% of TROW is own by so called “smart money” ... says something
    Regardless of whether one agrees with that or not, one doesn't get that datum (73% owned by institutional investors) from a ranking of the largest institutional investors.
    Actually, there is a bit of "noisy" information one can glean from the names at the top of the list. Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street (notably SSGA) largely manage index funds (as @Mark noted). If these companies represent the smartest of the smart money, that could suggest that the real intelligence is with the individual investors who own those index funds that in turn own TROW.
    I don't believe that, but what else about "smart money" can one get out of this particular ranking? Now if one were to discover (using additional data about the management firms) that a significant amount of active money was invested in a company, say SCHW, that might tell you something.
    As a matter of fact, SCHW has roughly the same institutional ownership percentage as TROW (75% vs 74%), but the makeup of those owners is much different. As with TROW, Vanguard tops the SCHW list, with Blackrock right behind it.
    But SCHW does seem to be owned by some "smarter" money. Next on the list is Wellington Management, anything but an indexing firm. And right behind it is D&C. There you go @hank.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHW/holders?p=SCHW
  • Mid-Year CG Distributions
    For the first time since inception, DVSMX paid a distribution of 2.3% on July 5. Since 2017, distributions have been paid in December. I suspect that formerly high-flying funds have had to sell winners. Current shareholders, myself included, will foot the tax bill. I wonder if other members' growth holdings have stepped up their distributions. I wouldn't be surprised if December brings another relatively high tax bill for growth funds, as occurred in 2021.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Good points by@msf. Yes, quite correct that an asset manager’s higher AUM would tend to increase its share of a stock holding. In addition, since a lot of TROW may be held by index funds, an investment in it might not reflect management’s true appraisal of the stock.
    D&C ‘s list of holdings for DODGX published 3/31/22 does not reference any TROW stock. The list may / may not be complete, but appears to cover at least their top 75 holdings. I checked the earlier Annual Report for the same fund and it appears as of 12/31/21 DODGX held 0 shares of TROW.
    Current price TROW $13.10 / Down 2.47%