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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • VWINX stumbling?
    Everything lost money last year, as you noted. VWINX was in the top decile in 2022.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vwinx/performance
    Not so great YTD. At least part of that is due to its mandate - generate income. On the equity side, it invests in high dividend stocks. Vanguard is clear about this. The equity side of its benchmark is the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vwinx
    VHYAX tracks this index. YTD it is down 4.26% vs. 1.99% for its category. While VWINX is actively managed, it swims in a pool that is underperforming this year. How have other high dividend equity funds done?
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vhyax/performance
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    Be careful what you ask about. You might get more than you bargained for :-)
    There were a couple of exceptions to the "usual" step up rule in the past, there's one current exception (in timing), and potentially one in the future. Perhaps others that I'm not aware of.
    Step-up in basis has been eliminated twice during the past 50 years, and each time, the change was short-lived.
    Step-up in basis was first eliminated by the Tax Reform Act of 1976 and replaced with a carryover basis regime. The carryover basis rules were heavily criticized and repealed a few years later, before they had taken effect.
    The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 repealed the estate tax and adopted a carryover basis regime [no step up] for calendar year 2010 only ...
    Congress eventually threw everyone a curveball. In mid-December [2010], Congress retroactively restored the estate tax and step-up in basis for 2010 decedents. However, for decedents who died in 2010, estate executors could opt out of the estate tax and into a carryover basis tax regime.
    https://www.aperiogroup.com/blogs/repeal-of-basis-step-up-third-times-the-charm
    The current estate tax law generally provides for a step up (or down) to current value as of date of death. However, for estates subject to the estate tax, an executor can elect to do an assessment of all assets in the estate (it's all or nothing) on the alternate valuation date six months after the date of death, assuming that would result in lower federal estate taxes.
    The exception to this exception is if an asset is transferred (via sale, distribution, or other method) prior to the end of the six month period, the individual asset is valued as of the date of transfer.
    Recent federal and state proposals are floating around to tax billionaires on unrealized capital gains annually based on mark-to-market valuations.
    https://itep.org/president-bidens-proposed-billionaires-minimum-income-tax-would-ensure-the-wealthiest-pay-a-reasonable-amount-of-income-tax/
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/17/wealth-taxes-state-level/
    Under these proposals there would be no need for a step up because assets would already be valued at their last annual market price. Further, often these proposals are limited to easily priced securities. They might treat real estate and securities differently.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    It's a variant of TBTF bailouts. If the bank's insolvency doesn't rock the boat, it goes under. But if it is large enough to affect the financial structure .... A variant of the aphorism:
    If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.
    https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/j_paul_getty_129274
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Just bought 10k SCHW. Already ahead $4.57! A winner, at last !!!
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    There was only 1 type of m-mkt fund during the GFC 2008.
    The Fed then started unlimited insurance for m-mkt funds for 10 bps fees from 2008-10. After some resistance from big players, all complied.
    From the lessons learned, m-mkt reforms of 2014/16 created 3 tiers of m-mkt funds - government, prime-retail, prime-institutional.
    Huge shift into the government m-mkt followed.
    But that was so huge that it may have damaged the commercial paper market.
    So, the m-mkt reforms are being looked again - so soon.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Another possibility for a "safe harbor" option, if someone is etf savvy is the treasury floating rate ETF, USFR paying 4.79% now. It is all treasury bills with a duration 0f 0.02. In addition it is state tax free with 100% t-bills. This has worked well for me in this rising interest time but it can be bought and sold anytime without cost in most brokerages. I also own t-bills but USFR is hassle free if you do not wish to constantly roll over the t-bills on your own. I do not use the Fidelity rollover program because I prefer to be able to change each duration if appropriate when each matures and of course you do not pay the 0.15 ER of USFR in buying the t-bills themselves.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    I'm not bothered at all by the extra coverage some uninsured depositors received at SVB. I'm just glad the FDIC agrees to guarantee deposits up to $250,000. Some libertarians want to go back to pre-1933 and eliminate FDIC guarantees for any amount. OH hell no !
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Half of the deposits that remained post seizure have already flown the coup:
    $119B in Silicon Valley Bridge Bank deposits on March 10th.
    $56B in deposits transferred (sold) to First CItizens
    -----
    $63B in deposits pulled out of the bridge bank.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-rapid-withdrawals-100029288.html ($119B)
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/first-citizens-said-be-near-deal-silicon-valley-bank-bloomberg-news-2023-03-26/ ($56B)
    There's always a risk of failure. Just as we saw a move to government MMFs after Reserve Fund broke a buck, some large depositors have wised up to the fact that uninsured really means "at risk". Even though the Treasury provided temporary insurance after Reserve Fund failed and even after the FDIC covered all depositors at SVB.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    ssue not easily dismissed by red herring arguments. Of course other instances of injustice have existed throughout history. Doesn’t in any way explain or justify this instance.
    I think you missed my point. Depositors who get "only" $250K of insurance are not being cheated. They are getting their fair share of coverage. It's the fact that someone else is receiving extra that's the red herring. Sure you're envious, sure you think they shouldn't have gotten that extra coverage, but that's got nothing to do with how much coverage you fairly deserve - $250K.
    My insurer decides to cover neighbor’s loss. Says it will recoup its expenses by raising my insurance rates and those of other paying customers.
    You bring up cost, suggesting that this windfall (SVB depositor unlimited coverage) to others is costing you money. As has been recently pointed out, the FDIC bailout will be paid for by other banks, not by taxpayers. So the broad populace isn't bearing the insurance cost.
    What about the costs you bear indirectly as a customer of a bank being assessed for this bailout? In 1993 the FDIC changed the way it charged banks for coverage - the more risky the bank, the more they were charged (risk-based premiums). So some of this is already built into the system. And unlike the auto insurance example that's based by neighborhood, this premium discrimination appears to be done bank by bank.
    From what OJ posted at the top, it looks like the cost of the bailout might also be apportioned among banks according to the risks they pose. IMHO that would be a good idea.
    Finally, in your example, your neighbor was uninsured, rather than underinsured. There's a red herring FDIC does not bail out non-member banks. Those banks don't pose systemic risks because depositors at FDIC member banks will not start pulling money out upon seeing a non-member bank failing.
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    The concern is that there is a lot of Twitter stuff on how this is going to destroy regional banks and eventually fdic fund. So it is important to throw light on this matter
    And all it takes are a few well-known Twitterers or shark investors (eg, Bill QUACKMan) to start posting their thoughts (correct, well-meaning, or otherwise) and I suspect we'll see more bank runs taking place.[1]
    But given how much CRE is held by pensions directly or indirectly, does anyone see this situation requiring a massive 'bailout' down the road to save things? Or will there be a sudden arbitrary rewriting of various accounting rules to better reflect the present day realities?
    On a semi-related note, it's interesting that practically every statement these days by Powell, Yellen, etc keep saying "the financial system is strong" ... at what point does that start sounding like "thoughts and prayers" or "inflation is transitory" and lose all meaning?
    [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-most-ruthless-investors-100300271.html
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    it was clear to the "market" (but not to regulators?) that IF the HTM Treasuries were marked-to-market, the equity (the book values) of the failed banks would have been wiped out.
    What does "clear to the 'market'" mean? Are we talking about the magnitude of the risk of being wiped out by a run? Wouldn't the market incorporate clearly perceived risk into an equity's price?
    If stock price is a metric of risk perception, it looks like the risk wasn't clear to the market until after SVB virtually failed. On March 8, SVB announced to the world that during the day it had run out of AFS securities and needed to raise cash immediately.
    The March 8th closing price of SIVB was $267.83, with volume in its typical range of well under 1M shares traded. The price was up 16% YTD. The next day trading volume exceeded 38M shares and the price dropped 60% while the market was open. It dropped further after the market closed before trading was halted.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SIVB/history?p=SIVB
    https://news.yahoo.com/svb-shares-slump-again-clients-105042807.html
    Technically there are only two failed US banks, SVB and Signature. Admittedly, Republic Bank would have failed without extraordinary measures.
    https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/bfb2023.html
    Signature Bank was different from SVB, because its involvement in cryptocurrency did make its risk apparent after SVB's collapse. Barron's wrote:
    Signature also had a cryptocurrency business. While Signature didn't have loans backed by cryptocurrencies or hold cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet, it had a payment platform for processing crypto transactions. But deposits associated with the crypto platform had been dropping, prompting some concern from Wall Street.
    Before SVB's failure, there wasn't too much concern. Signature had 10 Buy ratings out of 17 analysts listed on Bloomberg following earnings reported on Jan. 17. The average analyst price target was about $145 a share.
    As the crisis at SVB mounted, Signature stock fell about 50%. The company reported deposit balances of about $89 billion and loan balances of about $72 billion on March 8.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/signature-bank-shut-down-collapse-a0adf63f
    So far, I haven't found a report that Signature's security portfolio was loaded with Treasuries (not that I've looked that hard). As you noted, all types of long term securities are subject to interest rate risk - not just Treasuries, and not just illiquid securities. It would be interesting to know, strictly as a matter of curiosity, what Signature was holding.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    House sale and capital improvements to calculate capital gains on sale question.
    So, house purchased for 'x' $ 20 years ago.
    There is a capital gain on the sale of the property, which will be taxable.
    Improvements to the property may be used to change the 'cost basis' for calculating full capital gains tax.
    My question (below) is that it was stated that the owners made numerous improvements to the property over the years; which did provide for a higher sales price.
    One example is, a very nice fence that was placed around the property that cost $5,000 15 years ago, but would cost $15,000 to build today.
    The seller, of course, wants to keep the capital gains tax on the sale as low as possible.
    It is my understanding that they may use the original $5,000 to change the 'cost basis'; whereas it is suggested they may use the $15,000 cost (when the house was sold), if the fence was installed today, to calculate the 'cost basis'.
    In effect, they are suggesting using an 'inflation adjusted' value.
    Is this allowed in the IRS tax code for calculating a property sale 'cost basis' to establish the capital gains amount???
    Thank you for your time in sorting this conflict of thought about this process.
    Catch
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    I’ll say again I am struck by the unfairness. Consider the following scenario:
    - Being the frugal responsible type, I drive a $12,000 Chevy Spark for which I pay and receive collision insurance coverage.
    - My irresponsible next door neighbor drives a $100,000 BMW and elects not to carry insurance.
    - Neighbor wrecks BMW.
    - My insurer decides to cover neighbor’s loss. Says it will recoup its expenses by raising my insurance rates and those of other paying customers.
    - I ask - Where’s the fairness in this?
    Issue not easily dismissed by red herring arguments. Of course other instances of injustice have existed throughout history. Doesn’t in any way explain or justify this instance.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    From OP:
    "In 2021, for example, the Fed issued a rule — at the urging of bank lobbyists — noting that guidance from bank supervisors does not carry the force of law. That led some senators to call out
    colleagues who pushed for lighter rules, only to turn around
    and blame a lack of regulatory muscle for the bank's failure.
    "

    The epitome of political hypocricy...
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Following are heavily edited excerpts from a current NPR report.
    Days after one of the largest bank failures in U.S. history, the fallout continues. Some of the country's top banking and financial regulators appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday to testify about what led to the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank. Policymakers will be debating whether new laws, rules or attitudes are needed to keep other banks from going under.

    Five takeaways from Tuesday's hearing:
    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks
    • Bank executives could pay

    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up-
    Regulators had some tough words about SVB's management at the hearing. Silicon Valley Bank more than tripled in size in the last three years, but its financial controls didn't keep pace.
    The government bonds it was buying with depositors' money tumbled in value as interest rates rose, but the bank seemed unconcerned by that. "The [bank's] risk model was not at all aligned with reality," said Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision. "This is a textbook case of bank mismanagement."
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed-
    How much blame should be laid at regulators feet? That was a question that cropped up repeatedly during the hearing.
    Barr stressed that federal regulators had repeatedly warned the bank's managers about the risks it was facing, at least as far back as October 2021. The bank was served with formal notices documenting "matters requiring attention" and "matters requiring immediate attention." But the risks remained and the Fed stopped short of ordering changes, which frustrated some of the senators in the Senate Banking Committee from both sides of the aisle.
    The problems developed during a time when the Fed was generally pursuing a light touch in bank regulation. In 2021, for example, the Fed issued a rule — at the urging of bank lobbyists — noting that guidance from bank supervisors does not carry the force of law. That led some senators to call out colleagues who pushed for lighter rules, only to turn around and blame a lack of regulatory muscle for the bank's failure.
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast-
    In their testimony, regulators also stressed the speed at which the banks collapsed. When big depositors got wind of the problems at Silicon Valley Bank, they raced to pull their money out, withdrawing $42 billion in a single day. The bank scrambled to borrow more money overnight, but it couldn't keep up. By the following morning, depositors had signaled plans to withdraw another $100 billion — more than the bank could get its hands on.
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks-
    Also under scrutiny throughout the testimony, was the federal regulators' decision to backstop all deposits at SVB as well as Signature Bank. Silicon Valley bank was taken over by the FDIC on March 10, but fears of a more widespread bank run led regulators to announce days later they would guarantee all the deposits at both SVB and Signature Bank, not just the $250,000 per account that's typically insured.
    By law, that money will come from a special assessment on other banks — and that's left many senators unhappy. The FDIC has some discretion in how those insurance costs are divided up among different categories of banks. A recommended formula will be announced in early May.
    • Bank executives could pay-
    The role of SVB's top executives came under scrutiny as well during the hearing. Lawmakers expressed frustration at reports that executives at Silicon Valley Bank sold stock and received bonuses shortly before the bank's collapse.
    Although the government doesn't have explicit authority to claw back compensation, it does have the power to levy fines, order restitution and prohibit those executives from working at other banks, if wrongdoing is found. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md, said "Almost every American would agree it's simply wrong for the CEO and top executives to profit from their own mismanagement and then leave FDIC holding the bag,"
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    @rforno - "I think."
    I've tried that, not much good ever ensues.
    "I was thinking, which is a thing a man should not do..." Dean Jagger as Major Harvey Stovall in "Twelve O'clock High."
    Go straight to 1:57:20.

  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    As I noted elsewhere my local credit union offered a 5+% rate on a 15-month CD with as little as $1,000 about 3 weeks ago. Took a quick look. Gosh, I hold very little cash in any form and what minimal amount is held needs to be fully liquid. I enjoy investing and spread the risk around across diverse assets which in aggregate, I believe, offer better return potential than cash. Am also inclined to lock-in short term gains (at the cost of potentially greater returns) which lowers overall risk. And it certainly helps to have a pension plus SS. So just not into cash - much as I’d like to support my local credit union.
    With so little cash it’s not worth my time and effort seeking out the best return. Fido’s SPAXX.works for me - being essentially a store of “dry powder” in case bargains appear. It’s been interesting, educational - and mildly amusing - watching many posters seeking-out the best rates across the banking industry or treasury market for many months now. I understand and respect their reasons, trusting that’s what works for them.
    As far as RMDs are concerned, at a much earlier age I converted most of my IRA anssets into Roths. The fact that they require no RMDs was a primary reason for so doing. The remaining smaller traditional IRA requires RMDs, but I typically pull more than required from that every year anyway to supplement expenses - the Roth being reserved for larger purchases / unexpected contingencies..