I’m beginning to think the Fed “hasn’t a clue”. You don’t decree 2% inflation just as you can’t set a $35 limit on a barrel of crude, stop wars from breaking out or reduce the number of droughts worldwide over the next year. You can, however, try to alter, slow, accelerate the path of the economic growth / related factors with steady well thought out policies. By its very nature, it’s an imperfect task.
It would be nice to have 2% inflation, 2.5% 30-year fixed mortgages for anyone who wants one, cheap gas, lower taxes, higher employment and a world at peace. But there are tradeoffs to all of those. Markets are in disarray right now ISTM - uncertain of the next turn. So it’s hard to draw conclusions from the past 6 months. There are lag times involved in policy decisions. Tightening tends to begin in advance of recessions. And stock market recovery often precedes the end of one. I don’t disagree with those who see a recession looming. The bigger question is how long and how deep. Further, which investments are likely to prosper during the next chapter as the recession eases and growth resumes?

If you haven’t noticed, commodities have tanked hard in recent days - not a sign of a booming economy.

Crude oils and energy funds/ETFs fell considerably in the last two weeks. While this is one bright spot for this year, it is trending downward, perhaps due to slowing economy and demand. Crude oil future is down to $108 today whereas it was near $130 few months ago. Consumer discretionary (consumer spending in goods and services) is something important to watch.
No doubt this year is very tough to stay afloat. When both equity and bonds are down simultaneously as most bonds did not offer protection against stocks. A topical 60/40 portfolio is down near 15+% YTD. And we are only half way through the year. Don’t think we are near the bottom.

I hear you. The Fed and ECB will be playing catch-up for some time, attempting to tame inflation. But if production and consumption sink too far, you can bet they'll prime the pump again. After all is said and done, we'll end up with currencies that are worth about what the Filipino peso is worth right now: 1.8 cents, in US terms. In my own lifetime, I believe the Inflation Monster can be traced to LBJ. He had good intentions. "War On Poverty." But the Vietnam War buried him. And the US dollar. It was at about that time when families began to NEED two incomes to live decently.
China is supposed to be a bright investing spot at the moment. I cannot see myself investing in China-land any more than I'd give my money to Rosneft. The Iron Curtain is up again. The world is in the midst of an economic re-shuffling that is rather unusual. De-globalization. You mention commodities. Still $5.59/gallon here. THAT'S not going to be remedied very soon. Production needs to ramp-up. PRNEX is in the doldrums, as is my ET. Bargain buying time. Bloomberg TV says 1st half of 2022 was WORST for Stock and bonds IN HISTORY. In HISTORY.

I did not expect bearish sentiment to drop nearly 13% from last week's 59% to this week's 46% but again we had a big move up in the equity market late last week.

Update:
Investor class registration filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418922004486/osterweis485a.htm

Thanks for posting.
As of H1, the fund is down (2.85%). for any other bond fund, that would be a superb return on a relative basis.
But unless they can pull a rabbit out of their proverbial hat, this may be their first ever losing year.

Yes, this situation has been discussed in detail in the "M* screwing everything up again" thread. There's likely no fix for this situation.

Thanks, OJ. Guess I stopped reading that thread a little too soon.

Not a comprehensive look here by any means. But after today the S&P is off over 20% in just 6 months. Price’s “Blue Chip” (actually a pretty decent fund loaded with tech) is singing the blues - off about 35% YTD. I don’t think the Fed is looking to wreck the markets and thereby, through the “wealth effect”, throw the country into a severe recession - or worse.
Let’s see if the tough talk from Powell & Co. continues much longer.
And, Oh - If you haven’t noticed, commodities have tanked hard in recent days - not a sign of a booming economy.

Yes, this situation has been discussed in detail in the "M* screwing everything up again" thread. There's likely no fix for this situation.

One can't always believe what one reads. Especially from tertiary sources.
Investopedia writes:

Not every security will have the same settlement periods. All stocks are T+2, and mutual funds differ but are T+1 and T+2, depending on the fund. However, bonds and some money market funds will vary between T+1, T+2, and T+3.
...
Correction—May 5, 2022: This article previously contained an error regarding the settlement date timeline for mutual funds.

Fidelity also has apparent inconsistencies. Contrast the MMF prospectus excerpt Yogi provided with this writing in Fidelity's help section (bold in original): "How long does it take for a mutual fund trade to settle? ... Sells and buys of money market funds settle the same day"
Investopedia is right on one point - settlement times of MMFs vary. Some MMFs settle T+1 and some settle T+0. Read their SEC filings. Examples of T+0 funds are the institutional shares of Blackrock MMFs.
In their prospectus, the purchase and sale section of each fund reads in part: "To purchase or sell shares of the Fund, purchase orders and redemption orders must be transmitted to the Fund’s office ... You have until the close of the federal funds wire (normally 6:45 p.m. Eastern time) to get your purchase money in to the Fund."
They really do settle same day. I've owned at least one of them. You can trade them through Merrill.
One can infer from the prospectus that it's not up to the brokerage whether to settle the same day or not. If the brokerage carries the fund it must settle the same day.

For the week ending on 6/29/22, Sentiment improved a bit but was very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.7%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (22.8%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (30.5%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -23.9% (very low; interestingly, it has good correlation with the UM Sentiment). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (18+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=689

@TheShadow : Nice find. Time to check the bill again. Pay-back is a Bitch !
Thanks, Derf
Added : After checking bill it shows a PGA Purchased gas adjustment.
130.3 therms @ $0.36240 Base
130.3 '' @ $0.23650 PGA 7/28 days
130.3 '' @ $0.32890 PGA 21/28 days
FEB . billing
Wouldn't gas distribution company have contract with their supplier . Maybe their suppler has to buy on the spot market ?
Also note that PGA is on all bills.
Is it time to own a piece of the suppliers & pay yourself.

Bloomberg provides a reasonably fair summary of the situation. This paragraph summarizes the story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/why-is-fuel-so-expensive-it-s-not-just-the-oil-price-quicktake
“5. Can’t we just make more fuel?
Swaths of refinery capacity shut down during the pandemic and it’s not easy to bring it back online. The US lost more than 1 million barrels a day of capacity between 2019 and 2022 and the remaining plants were already running close to flat out. Some facilities will never restart, even with profit margins near records. The big, multiyear investments needed for such facilities have become tougher to secure as everyone from policymakers to consumers and financiers eye greener alternatives.”
Counterpoint… the lack of investments in refinery’s or drilling is not due to consumer demand or consumer shifts, it’s a current policy issue. It seems to me that the majority of consumers and policy makers are nowhere near consensus on the issue. I’m not certain that policy makers find the high price of gas to be a problem and they likely view it as an excellent opportunity to promote alternatives.

yes sir my bad. misread thought your quaterly natural gas investments/ dividends went from 54 to 89 lol. need more coffee. too much work today
our electric bills increased +++ 25% last month
electric companies are make killings/profits
will call 4CHANGEENERGY
hope they will honor the reduced natural gas prices/energy next cycle - month
natural gas etf I think declined significantly past 2 3 weeks

Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 5/31/22
While high market volatility continued, there were very minor changes in fund allocations, so fund investors stayed put. The changes from the last month are for a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $30.24 trillion, so +/- 1% change is about +/- $302.4 billion. Also note that these changes are from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.
OEFs: Stocks 52.65%, Hybrids 7.22%, Bonds 21.03%, M-Mkt 19.10%
ETFs: Stocks 81.31%, Hybrids 0.55%, Bonds 18.14%, M-Mkt N/A
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.89%, Hybrids 5.76%, Bonds 20.40%, M-Mkt 14.95%
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=688

Month payment went from $54 to $89 !!!! That's a 64.8 % increase. I tried to contact billing , but there's a 90 minute hold time ! Inflation my butt !
Anyone else see a major increase ?
Trying to stay kool, Derf

I agree that seems like one part of the issue. Another perhaps related part may be the way the put spread collar works.
Because the three month collars have different start and end months in each of the funds, it's possible for one fund to be in the "protected" area, where market declines don't affect the payoff value, while another fund could have already blown through the protection.
See diagram below. In this example, where the collar kicks in after a 5% loss at which point it provides 10% loss "insurance". Suppose two months ago the market went up 5%, and in the past month it dropped 10%.
A collar that started two months ago would be protecting a fund with a net 5% market loss. That is, the collar would just be kicking in now. But a collar that started just one month ago would be half used up. It would be protecting a fund with a net 10% market loss. (5% of that loss would be covered by the higher strike price put option.)
After another 5% drop in the market, its protection would be used up. At that point, the value of the latter fund would follow the market down, while the former fund would still have some protection.

In addition to high crude oil prices, refining for gasoline is the other bottleneck. Gasoline are produced locally and there are finite number of refinery plants across the nation. To build new ones takes over a decade given the safety requirements.
https://npr.org/2022/06/26/1107265390/refinery-shortage-high-gas-prices-russia

They are quite successful at directing the conversation to how hard it is to build new refineries. What is seldom discussed are refinery closures, the yearly gambit with changing the seasonal formulas, and the ever-popular down for maintenance when prices are high.
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/06/16/california-fuel-prices-set-to-soar-as-refiners-undergo-work/
Me thinks it would be a simpler task to modernize and upgrade an existing facility than it would be to get permits for new facilities.
Nearly everyone is a NIMBY when it comes to refineries. They have to be built where pipelines or tankers can get to them. In the latter case, new refineries tend to spoil waterfront views that are now typically expensive real estate. Whereas people living near existing refineries would be tickled pink if they were upgrading safety along with capacity.

That is precisely what the crack-spreads are telling us - I posted on it in the Oil thread,
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150168/#Comment_150168