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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Well, since we don't know Crash's age and financial situation today as compared to the 2008 crash, we don't know if he can handle it. That was--hard to believe--15 years ago. It's a mistake to assume everyone should keep a stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on during a difficult period. Circumstances and risk tolerances differ.
    This is why, I should add, financial planners exist. A good one can assess your financial situation and risk tolerance and tell you, look your goals are X and you have this much cushion for losses, so you can afford to wait out this volatile market. Or, they can say, you're way overexposed to stocks, given your age and situation. You should dial back your exposure. I presume most people here are self-directed, though.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    2008 09 credit housing crash, 2012 near double dip, 2015 -16 downturn/flat returns, 2000 crashes (decade 000 returns), 2020 Covid crashes also bad....
    Just hold on to the ride
    Drink lots wine/ weekend relaxation
    Keep buying when ItS strikingly low.
    You will be very happy 10 yrs from now if no WW3 and global warming won't kill us
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    Grandeur Peak's negligent behavior has been discussed many times before in this forum. Just repeatedly issuing mea culpa via fund manager commentary is not good enough. There is no change in Grandeur Peak's behavior. Fool me once shame on you and all that.
    I have not looked at First Republic's asset mix but Silicon Valley Bank? Silicon Valley Bank has the highest percentage of long term securities in its assets of all the banks in the country. Every individual investor (incl those in this forum) has been worried about Duration risk for the past 10 years but not Silicon Valley Bank. Hopefully, we get to see someday the Duration risk (or the lack of) in the non-equity portion of its CEO's personal portfolio. Interestingly, even Signature bank ranked 45 places higher than Silicon Valley Bank for Duration risk ( Signature Bank allegedly was playing games with the info it was providing NY regulators, leading to its demise). But back to Grandeur Peak. There is no alleged material fraud in Silicon Valley Bank for a forensic accountant to unearth - its demise is from sheer incompetence (or moral hazard at worst) in plain sight. Incompetent (negligent) fund manager picking incompetent portfolio company management, that is all we have here.
    Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts fund has 4.6% in First Republic and 2.3% in Silicon Valley Bank- as of Oct 31, per their website.
    I am sorry for coming out strong on this fund company - I will go to temple and seek forgiveness. Every time we make excuses for active fund managers' repeated failings we are failing innocent investors who visit this forum. I will go back to holding my silence and not posting here.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    As Mr. Krugman notes in the comments, "this was a medium-sized bank, and contagion was the fear."
    Which also supplies the "why" re: the support of First Republic by JPMorgan, Citi, BAC and others by depositing $30B into the bank.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    Schwab has far more 1 year CDs available than Fidelity. Kind of surprising
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    Interesting you say that because OFAFX has almost 100 positions, none more than 2%.
    His other fund Olstein Strategic Opportunities OFSAX is much more concentrated, 18 positions including four regional banks, 8% of assets.
    First Hawaiian, Citizens, Home BancShares, and Prosperity BancShares
  • USO ETF Oil Prices Plummet 7%
    @sma3, I learned a lot about the so-called state insurance then!
    First, our money was tied up for 5-6 years, not months. Rates offered were below high m-mkt rates at the time. So, only opportunity lost, not nominal money.
    I called our state insurance department and said that I wanted my money back. They said, not so fast. States' insurance departments were coordinating the rescue and I will just have to be patient. BUT, if I wanted my money right away, I could take the 40% haircut offer on the table. Well, I "decided" to be patient.
    By now I have personal experiences with 1 bank failure and 2 insurance failures. Only the FDIC is prompt in setting quick up to the limit. No experience with the SIPC, but from the news, I think that they also take their time while brokerage positions held may be frozen.
  • Federal Reserve’s Path Is Murkier After Bank Blowup
    @crash
    That one on Kaalawai Ave looks like just the ticket for me and my wife to escape New England winters. Can you run over and check it out for us?
    Giggle. LOL.
    Back up in Pittsfield and up by the VT line, they're still digging out. Tomorrow's St. Patrick's. Already. Beware the Ides of March. A day late.

  • Global "Stalwarts"
    RYSEX also has a CPA accountant manager: Charles Dreifus. I also think the more concentrated a fund with fewer holdings is, the more such forensic balance sheet analysis is necessary. The manager with 100 stocks can worry less about a single problem balance sheet. The one with 20 stocks really should be focused on every aspect of each company, especially their balance sheets.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    “I believe social media has magnified the bank panic.”
    Both social and mainstream media have had a field day. “It sells in Peoria” (increases ratings).
    There are no lines in front of banks. But there’s a lot of itchy fingers on keyboards moving money around. That modern day ability changes the instantaneity & speed of old fashioned “bank runs.”
    I’d been using GNMA as a cash substitute. Sold all today. The 10 year was over 4% about 1 week ago. Dropped below 3.5% (around 3.4% at one point) this morning. Hard to say what’s coming down the pipe - but a guess is they’ll find a way to patch up the shaky banking system both here and in Europe - adding liquidity in one way or another - and that inflation will be well above 2% a year from now. Bonds might do well in that environment, but I wouldn’t bank on it. There’s probably good money to be made on some of the regional banks - but not for me.
    To be clear - I still own a high-yield muni and a global bond fund.
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    I feel many fund companies including this one would benefit from having a CPA specializing in forensic accounting and detecting problematic balance sheets on staff. But very few fund companies have such employees, choosing the CFA or MBA manager/analyst route, and those folks mostly are just looking for growth, not fraud or balance sheet problems. It's a different skillset: https://barrons.com/articles/why-your-fund-manager-isnt-looking-for-fraud-51599250358
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    What surprises me is how well the risk on sectors of the bond market - junk corporates, junk munis, and bank loans - have reacted to the banking chaos. They are still positive YTD albeit barely. At their nadir in 08/09/ they were all down around 30%. For that matter I am surprised at how well the major equity indexes have held, especially the Nadaq 100. I believe social media has magnified the bank panic. When all is said and done the equity indexes could surprise to the upside. Then again, my predictive abilities are as lacking as anyone’s.
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    From M*: "For Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts GGSYX, First Republic Bank was its largest holding as of Oct. 31, 2022, the most recently available portfolio data. The stock was 4.5% of the $210 million fund. The fund also held 1.9% In Silicon Valley Bank. Over the past five trading days the fund has fallen 9.5%." For a fund company describing its methodologies as "world class" they've made -- IMHO -- quite a few missteps over the recent past.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    @catch22, MOVE is not only a blend but it is normalized, so it doesn't have a direct meaning as VIX.
    But we can look at past values and ranges.
    All-time high 264.60 (GFC, 2008), all-time low 36.62 (Covid, 2020).
    Covid 2020 range 36.62-163.70.
    Now 198.71 (3/15/23 EOD). So, well above its high during the credit-freeze of early-2020.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    MOVE chart at Google Finance starting Oct. 2019
    I've followed MOVE for some time and still don't find or know what it shows for me to be of use. I understand the index is a bond reference, not unlike VIX for equity volatility. Probably just me to find meaning vs watching bond yields and/or flows, and of course; everything the FED has done/is doing and bond markets reactions from the big players. And for me, I already have too many sticks in the fire that I watch; aside from whatever is being discussed by whomever.
    As you've noted....If I could readily chart MOVE against something I could us; I may discover something.
  • American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund is to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322823001332/abatrcf-html6116_497.htm
    497 1 abatrcf-html6116_497.htm AMERICAN BEACON AHL TARGETRISK CORE FUND - 497
    American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund
    Supplement dated March 15, 2023
    to the
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2022
    The Board of Trustees of American Beacon Funds has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund (the “Fund”) on or about July 7, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), based on the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Fund’s investment manager.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to new shareholders. In addition, in anticipation of and in preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, AHL Partners LLP, the sub-advisor to the Fund, may need to increase the portion of the Fund's assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for the Fund’s expenses and to meet redemption requests. The Fund may no longer be pursuing its investment objective during this transition. On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders. These shareholder distributions may be taxable events. Thereafter, the Fund will terminate.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about July 7, 2023. Liquidation proceeds will be delivered in accordance with the existing instructions for your account. No action is needed on your part.
    Please note that you may be eligible to exchange your shares of the Fund at net asset value per share at any time prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of the same share class of another American Beacon Fund under certain limited circumstances. You also may redeem your shares of the Fund at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No sales charges, redemption fees or termination fees will be imposed in connection with such exchanges and redemptions. In general, exchanges and redemptions are taxable events for shareholders.
    In connection with its liquidation, the Fund may declare distributions of its net investment income and net capital gains in advance of its Liquidation Date, which may be taxable to shareholders. You should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    For more information, please contact us at 1-800-658-5811, Option 1. If you purchased shares of the Fund through your financial intermediary, please contact your broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for further details.
    ***********************************************************
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/15/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/15/23
    For the week ending on 3/15/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (48.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.2%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.4%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -29.2% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (55+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold up sharply, dollar down. Crazy rate volatility as 3 banks failed in 4 days; SVB Bank & Signature Bank, #2 & #3 biggest bank failures in the US History. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=9&scrollTo=974
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    This article goes into more detail than I have seen elsewhere about the politics of the 2018 changes in the banking regs that allowed SVB to escape regulation, and how easily the startups etc could have protected their funds. It also implies that SVB prevented them from using multiple other banks ( with InfraSweep).
    https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-13-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-deregulation/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
    We still dont know how many of these accounts were really “ small businesses”. Roku apparently had half a billion dollars on deposit without any protection
    Why should we bail out Roku?
    I'm with ya.