Riders on the Storm, March 6 - 10, 2023Song titles that may apply for this write:
--- Riders on the Storm, The Doors,
197
1--- Dazed and Confused, Led Zeppelin,
1969
--- I Can see Clearly Now, Jimmy Cliff,
1993
Bonds mostly in a funk until the Silicon Bank melt on Friday, March
10. Then, IG bonds performed as normal for a flight to safety. I suspect some of these price gains will be pulled back next week. 'Course, this may put a pinch on the FED plans for rate changes coming March 26; and I imagine numerous folks in the FED and Treasury departments do not have the weekend 'off'. As noted in a
thread by
@Old_Joe, Silicon Bank's UST collateral had to be dumped at market rates without benefit of maturity. Contagion towards other FDIC banks may be a problem at some point 'IF' their portfolio is concentrated within their customer base. I only note this now, as I imagine some bank portfolios will find a deep analysis of 'where is your money', being loans and deposits.
An example could be: a bank catering to sub-prime used auto loan.
The 2007-2008 melt was the result of too many folks with their fingers inside the sub-prime mortgage loans areas, and a lot of fancy quasi guarantees layered to protection against default of the mortgage borrower. As the dominoes fell, not many could cover one another's butts with the heavily margin monies. Default city X
10. So many of these sub-prime mortgages were packaged and sold as 'good', with a nice yield. A lot of lying by the peddlers and failure to verify from buyers. I recall pension funds in Finland and other places one would not think about who found their money 'up in smoke'.
There will likely by some more banks with problems, but not to the point of a FDIC grab; but with impact to a stock price and withdrawal of deposits. Any of this could be highly modified with 'social media', which was not a concern in 2007 - 2008. Some companies having monies with SVB may have problems. ROKU (online digital streaming) reportedly had $500 million parked at the bank. What will be their fate with this money recovery?
One may suggest that poor bank management, high interest rates, improper regulatory monitoring and the poor decisions by companies having a concentration of their monies at one bank helped cause a 'perfect storm' for a bank run.
I feel that the appropriate and timely actions with SVB were performed properly, which should add assurance.
If you're curious; a
list of failed banks 2009 - 2023. I last posted this list in 20
10 or there about. Scroll down for names.
I digress.
IG bonds will likely find favor until the dust settles. IMHO.
Those MMKT's. Stagnant yields again this week, as they've hit a plateau; but most still having a yield between 4.2 and 4.5%, unless it's a magic sauce MMKT. Perhaps another bump up in yields when the FED raises rates again.
--- U.S.$ DOWN -.32% for the week, +.86% YTD
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the
126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
--- The NAV's list below had a few small positive moves on Thursday, and of course; big positive price moves on Friday, with exceptions; as yields had large down moves from a flight to safety from the failure of SVB. The longer duration were in favor.
A good day to you.....
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---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, March 6 - March 10, 2023
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 4.46% (flat lined now). The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.
--- AGG = +1.04% / +1.63% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.11% / +1.26% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.56% / +.44% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +.4% / +.91% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +2.27% / +2.05% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.07% / +1.55% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.19% / +.62% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.2% / +.46% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = +.97% / +5.15% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +3.63% / +6.6% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +4.48% / +8.98% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +4.63% / +9.92% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -7.% / -11.8% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +10.9% / +16% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +1.25% / +1.83% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +.61% / +1.99% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = -.81% / +3.09% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -1.71% / +.83% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.41%/+1.63% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.67% /+1.04% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.33%/+1.29% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -3.1% / +2.41% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -4.08% / +3.28% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.46% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch