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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    @LarryB - Sounds like you’ve done very well with your investments. Rather than judging performance I’m just trying to keep a handle on daily volatility. That’s the reason for watching 3 different funds - to average out the daily fluctuations. I think the 3 funds I watch combined stand up well on a daily basis in that respect.
    Longer term, there are better benchmarks. One good one I watch is VWINX (+0.29% today). There was a fella here a while back who said he used PRWCX (-1.05% today). Do you have any good “benchmarks” to recommend for folks in their late 70s who don’t like to hold any cash?
    BTW - I still find AOK intriguing. And will agree with both you and Morningstar that it has not lived up to promise.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    @LarryB- There's this, from the WSJ:
    Following are selected excerpts from a current article in the Wall Street Journal-
    First Republic shares fell 52% in early trading before storming back to near the previous day’s closing level, only to then finish the day down 15%. Investors expressed concerns about unrealized losses on assets at the bank as well as its heavy reliance on deposits that could turn out to be flighty.
    Addressing its liquidity, First Republic said: “Sources beyond a well-diversified deposit base include over $60 billion of available, unused borrowing capacity at the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank.” Regarding its financial position, First Republic said it “has consistently maintained a strong capital position with capital levels significantly higher than the regulatory requirements for being considered well-capitalized.”
    Investors have grown wary of First Republic for reasons similar to those that caused concern at SVB. Like SVB, First Republic showed a large gap between the fair-market value and balance-sheet value of its assets. Unlike SVB, where the biggest divergence is in its portfolio of debt securities, First Republic’s gap mostly is in its loan book.
    In its annual report, First Republic said the fair-market value of its “real estate secured mortgages” was $117.5 billion as of Dec. 31, or $19.3 billion below their $136.8 billion balance-sheet value. The fair-value gap for that single asset category was larger than First Republic’s $17.4 billion of total equity.
    All told, the fair value of First Republic’s financial assets was $26.9 billion less than their balance-sheet value. The financial assets included “other loans” with a fair value of $26.4 billion, or $2.9 billion below their $29.3 billion carrying amount. So-called held-to-maturity securities, consisting mostly of municipal bonds, had a fair value of $23.6 billion, or $4.8 billion less than their $28.3 billion carrying amount.
    Another point of concern that echoes SVB is First Republic’s liabilities, which rely heavily on customer deposits. At SVB, those deposits largely came from technology startups and venture-capital investors, who quickly pulled their money when the bank ran into trouble.
    First Republic’s funding relies in large part on wealthy individuals who increasingly have a range of options to seek higher yields on their cash at other financial institutions as interest rates have risen.
    Total deposits at First Republic were $176.4 billion, or 90% of its total liabilities, as of Dec. 31. About 35% of its deposits were noninterest-bearing. And $119.5 billion, or 68%, of its deposits were uninsured, meaning they exceeded Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. limits.
    Uninsured deposits can prove flighty since they can be subject to losses if a bank fails.
    (Text emphasis added in above.)
    For additional perspective, there's this from a post that I made earlier in this thread:
    Hopefully we all know or understand that holding bonds or CDs of various types can easily lead to a capital loss if we are required to sell those types of instruments before maturity, and if their value has meanwhile deteriorated due to overall financial market conditions.
    But I had never given any thought to the possibility of potential bank losses when they have parked substantial amounts of their money in "ultra safe" US Treasuries. An article in this morning's WSJ pointed out that banks are potentially in the same situation as we are.
    A bank such as Silicon Valley Bank can have a significant amount of their capital in short-term "safe" Treasuries, but if they are faced with an unexpected run on their deposits, they can be forced to sell those Treasuries before maturity, and at a loss.
    So even a reasonably run bank can get into trouble.
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    @Hank. Regarding AOK. At one time it was my benchmark fund I measured my small ball 30% equity portfolio against. AOK made me look like an investing genius. According to Portfolio Visualizer AOK has a CAGR of 3.17% from 1/1/19 thru 2/28/23. Divs reinvested. I had forgotten about it till your mention today. Neither I nor the investing market have much enthusiasm for AOK.
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    It was not a good day for equities.
    Every single one of my equity funds was down today.
    My small-cap (VTMSX, -2.49%) and mid-cap (IVOO, -2.81%) funds were hit the hardest.
    DOXIX (intermediate core-plus bond ) was the only fund in my portfolio with a gain (0.89%) today.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    March 10 edition, with a new host.
    Lightning round agreement: it's IG over HY, and duration risk over credit risk.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Circle confirms $3.3 billion of the ~$40 billion $USDC reserves are in collapsed Silicon Valley Bank
    Could be few months pain if the dust settle, maybe spy head toward 3300, many pundits been calling for this level last 12 14 months
    Only thing working few days $TMF, tsla slightly up today
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    @Crash - ;) couldn't help it. My accounts went from 2 to 1 person so half the coverage. I was slowly correcting as CDs matured so I didn't get it done in this one instance within the 6mo. grace period. I moved the remaining high yield savings but would need to break a CD to get completely under $250K.
    @WABAC Thanks. Corrected from NUCA to NCUA.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    And the hits just keep on coming....
    BlockFi has $227 million in uninsured funds in Silicon Valley Bank
    https://www.theblock.co/post/218943/blockfi-has-227-million-in-uninsured-funds-in-silicon-valley-bank
    (well, 'had' is a more correct tense, I think.)
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Following is an excerpt from a current article in the San Francisco Chronicle, a purported* SF newspaper:
    A new bank, the National Bank of Santa Clara, has been created by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to hold the deposits and assets of Silicon Valley Bank, and it will begin operating by Monday. But only accounts that fall below $250,000 are insured by FDIC; any winery with funds above that will have to wait an undetermined amount of time to find out if the additional amount will be paid back, partially or in full.
    Since two of the few subjects that the SF Chronicle seems equipped to cover these days are food and wine, this article naturally focused on problems that the wine industry may face due to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. The potential problems for safety of deposits in excess of the FDIC 250k coverage limit will apply, of course, to all deposits of that type.
    * Having been a reader of San Francisco newspapers for some 75 years, I can accurately report that the current San Francisco Chronicle is barely a faint shadow of what a real newspaper should be, and in fact, of what the Chronicle once was. The Hearst Corporation is evidently targeting readers between 12 and 20 years of age.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Here it comes...
    Scrutiny Falls on $43B USDC Stablecoin’s Cash Reserves at Failed Silicon Valley Bank
    https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/03/10/scrutiny-falls-on-43b-usdc-stablecoins-cash-reserves-at-failed-silicon-valley-bank/
    Per Circle: "Silicon Valley Bank is one of six banking partners Circle uses for managing the ~25% portion of USDC reserves held in cash. While we await clarity on how the FDIC receivership of SVB will impact its depositors, Circle & USDC continue to operate normally."
    [narrator]: "Until it can't...."
    The USDC chart since that official tweet has, predictably, fallen off a cliff.
    Posting the 'this is fine' meme would've been about as reassuring as their official update tweet, I think.
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    +1. Gonna go watch "the Friday shows:" WSW. Real Yield, Wealthtrack.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    I have avoided the Big Dogs just on principle, remembering the GFC. BPRN Bank of Princeton (on watch-list) was up on Th. by 0.3% but could not do it again today, Friday: down by the same amount. NYCB was suggested to me just a few days ago, here. :)
    Its share price got clobbered, the past couple of days. I wonder if it's simply because of its Gotham exposure?
    Do we need to come up with a new category entirely, for the sake of accuracy? I eschew the BIG banks. Then there are mid-sized banks. Regional banks. (Zions, Huntington.) Then small banks. Should there be an "obscure banks" category? Wherever my own "darling" fits, she is down for this past full week by -9.05%. ( BHB but up +0.48% in the after-hours, which never helps the likes of ME.) Price target is 22% higher than its closing price today, Fri. 10th March, '23. (Number there is from Stock Rover.)
    BHB has branches all over northern New England. Still no panic here. I see a buying opportunity. Same with BPRN, when it falls a bit further.
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    Thanks @Crash for sharing some of your winners. I noticed too that HY held up well today.
    I just checked the average 2022 performance of those 3 (tracking) funds and came up with a dismal -14.25% combined return for 2022. A lot worse than I fared. Can’t explain why they had such a horrible 2022, other than both bonds and equities fell in tandem (and I caught some lucky breaks as well).
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    PRISX (financials) is my dog I keep around because I like to kick it across the room. I kicked it hard today. -3.52%. I'm glad that since the New Year, I've already redistributed a ton of what used to be in there.
    Two of my smallest holdings were up: JRSH +0.83% and SCHP (TIPs) +1.43%. Among all the others--- all losers today--- the one which fared best was HYDB junk bonds - 0.08%. But I own barely a toe-hold there. And my OEF junk managed not to get murdered badly at all. It's a strange world. TUHYX and PRCPX.
    Full portfolio -1.16% on the day.
    My classmate Kevin would ask: "Are you bragging or complaining?"
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Both Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank are California state-chartered banks. Is there any reason to think oversight would have been better (or worse) if they had national bank charters?
    https://dfpi.ca.gov/2023/03/08/dfpi-statement-silvergate-bank-to-begin-voluntary-liquidation/
    https://dfpi.ca.gov/2023/03/10/california-financial-regulator-takes-possession-of-silicon-valley-bank/
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    Kinda funny after all the hoopla today. For over a year I’ve tracked 3 funds daily - none of which I own - that I think roughly represent my conservative risk tolerance and modest investment goals. The 3 are equally weighted in dollar terms. Today, they came out perfectly flat. Zip / Zero / No Change . A bit of a surprise (and somewhat better than I fared).
    AOK + 0.09%
    ABRZX + 0.24%
    PRSIX - 0.34%
    Net change 0%
    All 3 benefited from substantial bond holdings. ABRZX also plays around with derivatives. While I currently own none of these, I did own ABRZX and PRSIX for part of 2022. Have never owned AOK - but find it somewhat intriguing.
    Footnote - As I mention below in a note to Crash, the 3 funds did not live up to my “hype” last year - losing an average 14.25% over the course od the year. Ouch!
    My day? Have plenty of bond funds, all of which held up well. Equities? Pretty roughed up except for 1 large consumers staples company and one p/m mining company, both of which rose. Overall - a down day, but not as bad as expected.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Friend uncle works at sivb for 15 +++yrs have 300k $$$ in sivb stocks... Not sure why did not diversified
    90s% $ gone in 2d
    Mama had 50k in first republic banks in sjc, matured 2 months ago... Asked her to move $$ to schwab so we bought more bonds... She is extremely lucky today... First republic may belly up next
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Think uncle P halt rate now 14th? Too many potatoes on the tables now
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Hoo boy, another 'Bear' moment for Cramer....
    CNBC’s Jim Cramer urged viewers to buy Silicon Valley Bank stock last month
    https://nypost.com/2023/03/10/cnbcs-jim-cramer-touted-silicon-valley-bank-stock/
    (admittedly not exactly a 1:1 comparison, but close enough to cause a firestorm)