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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why Our Money Pros Are the Most Bearish in Nearly 30 Years - Barron’s
    The full transcript of the NBC interview is provided below:
    https://nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/read-full-transcript-president-donald-trump-interviewed-meet-press-mod-rcna203514
    The market hates uncertainty as @larryB posted. Who can make investment plans for their business with these chaos ? The damage already done cannot be readily reverse with the allied countries. Question is when the largest treasury holders start to sell their holdings when things get ugly? Remember, the tariffs pause is only 90 days from the Libration Day, April 2, 2025 - July 2, 2025.
    As individual investors, we are not buying on the dip. Rather we are reallocating stocks to bonds, oversea stocks, and cash. Don’t think we have reached the bottom.
  • Warren Buffett
    Thanks Yogi. A quick web search seems to consistently turn up Buffett as the originator. Buffett also has about an 8 year advantage in longevity (ange 94) over the more youthful (age 86) Turner.
    I’ll go with Buffett until somebody proves me wrong.
  • Warren Buffett
    Hear "You don’t find out who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out" in this video, 4/25/1994
    https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/1994/04/25/buffett-you-dont-find-out-whos-been-swimming-naked-until-the-tide-goes-out.html
    For some reason, David Senra attributes that quote to Ted Turner in this X/Twitter link (see #10),
    https://x.com/FoundersPodcast/status/1729257647755399330
  • Global P/E Expansions Over 10 Yrs
    A graphic depiction of the total-return equation:
    %TR = %Dividend_yield + %Earnings_growth + %Change_in_P/E
    The P/E expansion was a global phenomenon over the last 10 yrs EXCEPT for China, Lat Am (worst), Europe-SCs, Japan-SCs. Minimum-volatility is a strategy, not a market or asset class, so those data were ignored.
    image
    LinkedIn
  • Why Our Money Pros Are the Most Bearish in Nearly 30 Years - Barron’s
    Thirty-two percent of professional investors in Barron's Big Money poll are bearish while twenty-six percent are bullish. These are the largest and smallest percentages, respectively, since 1997. Optimists believe the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the DJIA will be 4% - 7% above recent levels at year-end. Pessimists believe the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will experience low double-digit losses while the DJIA will decline 7%.
    Only 20% of poll respondents approve of Trump's tariff policy.
    Several respondents wished the administration focused on policies which could lead to more immediate growth. Deregulation was the top priority for 38% of respondents.
    "Still, 2025 is likely to remain a year of surprises. And if subsequent quarters mirror the first, investors could be in for a tumultuous ride. 'It is a difficult market,' says Ken Laudan, manager of the Buffalo Blue Chip Growth fund. 'You have to be comfortable being very uncomfortable.'
    I've increased my Maalox inventory significantly in preparation for stock market turbulence.
  • Target date funds have delivered
    The year of 2022 was one the rare moment both stocks and bonds to fall due to rapid rise of interest rates. The asset correlation failed despite the broader diversification on stocks and bonds. The magnitude of loss was in double digits in the teens. For those who are approaching retirement, there may not be enough time to fully recover.
    529 college saving plans use similar asset allocation funds that have their glide path. As parents it is crucial to keep track of the withdrawal time horizon and interest rates. Most if not all the funds should be in money market before the tuition bills showing up.
  • Private Credit Funds
    Sellers are getting uo to 50% haircuts in exiting private-credits, LinkedIn.
    This is very disconcerting!
  • Why Our Money Pros Are the Most Bearish in Nearly 30 Years - Barron’s
    So, buy the expected dip. Except the market doesn't like to comply with our expectations for future performance.
    The latest poll was mailed out in late March, with supplementary tariff-related questions added in early April.”
    Unfortunately, these surveys are about a month old before all the survey results are received and aggregated and an article published.
    Buying in early April would have been very productive: “As of Friday, the S&P 500 index had risen nine days in a row, its longest streak since 2004. It jumped 10.2% in that span—2.9% of that in the past week … The market has made back the entirety of its ‘Liberation Day’ selloff.“ (Excerpted from the same issue of Barron’s - 5/4/25)

  • Private Credit Funds
    Sellers are getting uo to 50% haircuts in exiting private-credits, LinkedIn.
    I'm sure folks will plow into these things b/c it makes them feel like a 'sophisticated' investor....
    ... and why companies are trying to push this stuff into user-selected options for retirement/pension plans, too.
  • Target date funds have delivered
    If target-date funds were a country’s gross domestic product, it would be the fifth-largest in the world, ranking behind the US, China, Germany, and Japan. Between inflows and market appreciation, assets have climbed at an astounding compounded rate of more than 30% annualized over the past 15 years. We explore these market trends and more in the recently released 2025 Target-Date Strategy Landscape
    M* Article
    https://morningstar.com/funds/target-date-funds-have-delivered-investors
  • Private Credit Funds
    Sellers are getting uo to 50% haircuts in exiting private-credits, LinkedIn.
  • July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    Just posted all ratings and flows to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 2 May 2025.
  • Vanguard's computers are at it again
    4/2 made a small purchase at VG. Today received notice of 1k shares of APPLE purchased. Activity records only show my small purchase of $1055. was AI the "person" in charge?!
    Shit happens, Derf
  • Fiserv outage Friday - taking down Zelle, other banking services
    Key Points
    • A widespread technology outage has disrupted online banking, ACH payments, and services like Zelle for dozens of banks across the U.S.
    • Customers have reported being unable to access accounts, missing direct deposits, and inability to transfer funds or use online bill pay.
    • The outage raises broader concerns about the risks of dependence on third-party technology providers for core banking operations across multiple banks.
    https://thecollegeinvestor.com/57421/banking-outage-leaves-customers-without-account-access/
    See also, e.g. https://www.tomsguide.com/news/live/zelle-down-outage-5-2-25
    Fiserv advertises that it helps its clients "manage single points of failure". Physician, heal thyself.
    In the meantime, it would seem to be a good idea to have multiple checking accounts (those could include brokerage accounts) to protect against outages. And keep a handy dandy paper checkbook in a nearby desk drawer just in case the whole electronic world goes down.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (05/03/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:20 Topics
    01:21 It's All About Earnings Again
    04:58 The Tariff Division
    11:46 A Technical Recession?
    15:26 Positive Jobs Report Will Keep Fed on Hold
    20:11 The Labor Market Is Cooling
    23:37 Will More Supply Unfreeze the Housing Market?
    27:28 More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog
  • Warren Buffett
    Monumental …..
    From Politico - ”Warren Buffett shocked an arena full of his shareholders Saturday by announcing that he wants to retire at the end of the year … ‘I think the time has arrived where Greg (Abel) should become the Chief Executive office of the company at year end,’ Buffett said.”
    (Wow - Some scathing words for the direction of the U.S. in international affairs … )
    From Bloomberg - ”The announcement stunned the board and even Abel, who, while long signaled as Buffett’s successor, was unaware that the news was coming as the annual meeting drew to a close …”
  • Warren Buffett
    The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting takes place today.
    Warren Buffett announced he would step down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO at the end of 2025.
    Mr. Buffett is idolized as one of the best long-term investors by many.
    Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio often holds ample cash and avoids over-hyped stocks.
    Due to its construction, the portfolio can lag the S&P 500 for extended periods during strong markets.
    Would Buffett's acolytes have the discipline to hold sizable mutual fund/ETf positions which behaved similarly?
  • Apple sleazebags. News link.
    Nothing but Apple here for 25 years. Never a serious problem. One hack into my DejaOffice App years ago. I learned from that to conceal passwords and not store them so conspicuously they could be stolen.
    Years ago before I understood how to “clean” an ipad when through with it I attempted to smash an old one up in the driveway using a 10-12 lb long-handled sledge hammer. Impossible to destroy. It cracked, shattered and wrinkled but refused to break apart.
    IPads galore. Use my 5 year old MacBook so seldom it seems unfamiliar and awkward. Best for some applications like preparing taxes or selecting theater seats. Used it to update an old Garmin recently.
    What I started to say is that considering all the things that could go wrong with a device I feel pretty fortunate to have had such good luck with Apple. For subscriptions you’re generally better off dealing thru Apple, though I realize they skim profits from providers. So easy to start or cancel, whereas many providers make cancelling difficult.
  • Firing Fed chair,,, impact on mutual funds?
    Disappointed but not surprised by T's rhetoric.
    Nothing good can come from this.

    What a surprise?
    The SP500 went up nicely since the date you posted the above.
    This thread was started because Trump threatened to fire Powell.
    It would be idiotic to fire Powell and undermine confidence in the Fed.
    My post was a response to this situation - S&P 500 performance was not mentioned.
    You are such a TROLL!