Midas Magic in registration https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/770200/000077020023000003/mst_485.htmExcerpt:
Principal Investment Strategies of the Fund
Under normal circumstances, in pursuit of its investment objective, the Fund may invest in any security type (e.g., common and preferred stocks, bonds, convertible securities, etc.) and in companies of any size, industry, sector, including both domestic and foreign companies. Generally, the Investment Manager seeks to invest in what it believes to be quality companies with unique combinations of strength in operations, products, and finances with either growth or value characteristics. A security is typically sold when its potential to meet the Fund’s investment objective is limited or exceeded by another potential investment, when an investment in an issuer no longer appears to meet the Fund’s investment objective, or when the Fund must raise cash to meet shareholder redemptions. In seeking to enhance returns, the Fund may use futures, options, and short sales and may use leverage to the extent permitted under the
1940 Act. To achieve the Fund’s investment objective, the Investment Manager may use a seasonal investing strategy to invest the Fund’s assets to gain exposure to the securities markets during periods anticipated to be favorable based on patterns of investor behavior as driven by and related to accounting periods, taxable events, and other calendar related phenomena. The Investment Manager’s analysis also takes into consideration those periods during the year in which it anticipates that investors are more likely to invest additional money into the securities markets. These periods can be related to accounting periods and may be further refined by considerations of tax cycles, holidays, and other factors. The Fund may trade securities actively in pursuit of its investment objective.
Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6% +1
Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6% I polished my first wife every day and eventually she left me and took the car...
I feel sorry for the wife if this is
all she got for having put up with you - Jezzz!
:)

Supreme Court to hear case that threatens consumer protection agency and other federal agencies Following are lightly edited excerpts from
a current NPR report:
The Supreme Court agreed on Monday to take up a case that could threaten the existence of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and potentially the status of numerous other federal agencies, including the Federal Reserve.
A panel of three Trump appointees on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled last fall that the agency's funding is unconstitutional because the CFPB gets its money from the Federal Reserve, which in turn is funded by bank fees.
Although the agency reports regularly to Congress and is routinely audited, the Fifth Circuit ruled that is not enough. The CFPB's money has to be appropriated annually by Congress or the agency, and everything it does is unconstitutional, the lower courts said.
The CFPB is not the only agency funded this way. The Federal Reserve itself is funded not by Congress but by banking fees. The U.S. Postal Service, the U.S. Mint, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which protects bank depositors, and more, are also not funded by annual congressional appropriations.
In its brief to the Supreme Court, the Biden administration noted that even programs like Social Security and Medicare are paid for by mandatory spending, not annual appropriations.
"This marks the first time in our nation's history that any court has held that Congress violated the Appropriations Clause by enacting a law authorizing spending," wrote the Biden administration's Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar.
Conservatives who have long opposed the modern administrative state have previously challenged laws that declared heads of agencies can only be fired for cause. In recent years, the Supreme Court has agreed and struck down many of those provisions. The court has held that administrative agencies are essentially creatures of the Executive Branch, so the president has to be able to fire at-will and not just for cause.
But while those decisions did change the who, in terms of who runs these agencies, they did not take away the agencies' powers. Now comes a lower court decision that essentially invalidates the whole mission of the CFPB.
The CFPB was the brainchild of then White House aide, and now U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren. She issued a statement Monday noting that lower courts have previously and repeatedly upheld the constitutionality of the CFPB.
"If the Supreme Court follows more than a century of law and historical precedent," she said, "it will strike down the Fifth Circuit's decision before it throws our financial market and economy into chaos."
The high court will not hear arguments in the case until next term, so a decision is unlikely until 2024.
Fund Allocations (Cumulative) Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 01/31/23There were minor shifts due to market rebound. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $28.59 trillion in the previous month, so +/-
1% change was about +/- $285.9 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.
OEFs: Stocks 52.50%, Hybrids 6.68%, Bonds 20.04%, M-Mkt 20.78%
ETFs: Stocks 80.49%, Hybrids 0.48%, Bonds
19.03%, M-Mkt N/A
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.94%, Hybrids 5.26%, Bonds
19.8
1%, M-Mkt
15.99%
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/952
Dodge and Cox Annual Reports posted @Observant1Thanks for link to Professor Snowball's article on China. There he says small cap funds, are less likely to be in China
One small cap value fund, not strictly EM, that has done well over the years ( That David profiled in 20
15) is QUSIX
China LT
1% here
Dodge and Cox Annual Reports posted Among other "perpetual bulls" ( it seems) on EM is GMO
For a very long time they have believed Emerging markets will outperform almost everything else, but I think this is almost all based on valuation.
There are a lot of moving parts to try to understand.
Some are just financial: Dollar strength vs weakness ( can be hedged away I guess) honesty of management ( perhaps identifiable by good PM), corruption ( a matter of opinion perhaps but clearly some countries have stronger rule of law protections etc than others)
Then there are the ethical issues: child labor, worker's rights etc all weaker than in US and even the US we will all admit has major problems
You now have to add Climate Change. India has done very well, until the last couple of years, but already is hitting summertime temperatures ( per Bloomberg) with only 10 % of population having air conditioning. Over the next few years this is bound to weaken economic performance unless you are 100% into Indian A/C companies
For the funds that do provide decent annual letters, a careful read can see how well a lot of these issues are addressed. But what do you do when they are not mentioned at all?
Resolution of Brexit for Ireland +1.
Vanguard's Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q1 2023: From pain to gain
Dodge and Cox Annual Reports posted That fund has an additional 2.2% in HK. Is that all in HK companies, or does some of that reflect indirect investment in mainland China? The Reuters commentary below says that mainland China companies account for 78% of HK's stock market cap. When your fund reports its allocations, is it deconstructing the holdings or reporting where the shares are issued?
Presumably the securities counted under HK don't include mainland Chinese companies listed in HK. Not that HK-based companies are completely devoid of Chinese political risk. For example, 0.9% of the fund's AUM are invested in AIA. This is a global insurance company, based in HK since
1947, but it started in Shanghai and reopened a branch there in
1992. Pretty clearly a HK company, though with some ties to mainland China.
https://www.aia.com/en/about-aia/overviewFWIW, I rely on my foreign/global funds to identify appropriate emerging as well as developed markets. I don't consider myself well enough informed to do this level of managing. And if the fund manager blows it, at least I have someone else to blame :-)
Reuters commentary:
At its core, Hong Kong’s unique selling point is that it’s China-by-proxy for investors; enterprises in the People’s Republic account for 78% of the market capitalisation of Hong Kong’s
main boards. The Stock Connect scheme run by bourse operator Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (
0388.HK) lets money move across China’s capital controls in a limited way. Officials familiar with the situation say that it handles as much as 70% of all international investment flows into stocks listed in mainland China.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/hong-kong-spreads-its-wings-its-bets-2023-02-23/
Dodge and Cox Annual Reports posted RE China
[snip]
I have serious qualms about China's human rights record and the increasing threat to world stability, but I think the major investment risks ( other than a shooting war) are
1) I do not think you can believe their numbers and accounting, as the Government has and will continue to manipulate them and
2) The government has intervened in aggressively in companies management when it wanted to. Jack Ma disappeared for a while remember?
[snip]
I share your concerns.
The Chinese government's aspiration to expand its global sphere of influence/dominance
(Belt & Road, South China Sea activities, etc.) is also troubling.
Consequently, I now deliberately avoid allocating capital to Chinese companies¹.
Professor Snowball authored an informative 202
1 article regarding the risks of investing in China.
Link ¹ I do own a foreign large-cap growth fund which had
12.7% of its assets in China as of 0
1/3
1/2023.
Your tax dollars at work - US Treasury/Savings Bonds >Heavy volume is slowing our response time to calls on the phone and cases sent by mail. You can call us from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, Monday through Friday. Please expect long wait times if you need an agent.
Estimated processing times for cases you send by mail:
- Claims for lost or stolen bonds, 6 to 7 months
- FS Form 5444, for account authorization, 8 weeks
- Other cases, 13 weeks
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/Sigh.
Your tax dollars at work - US Treasury/Savings Bonds Last year we wanted to cash some bonds that had stopped earning interest.
Our bank (of long standing) wasn't not allowed to cash them -- the paper bonds had to be sent in to the Treasury Department. TD had mailed us a form with good instructions.
The bank did its job endorsing the back and vouching for us and I mailed them off.
No word. No deposit into our checking account.
Wait longer.
Finally I tried calling TD. I got a recorded message with the 13 week warning.
But I didn't even know if they had received my envelope. So I called again and stayed on hold for the promised hour and 45 minutes.
The person I finally talked to was friendly and helpful. Yes, the bonds had been scanned into the system (just a couple of days after I mailed them), but we shouldn't expect to see our money any sooner than the 13 weeks already mentioned.
At least we knew we were in the system. And their deposit eventually showed up in our checking account.
Two points:
(1) Why does anybody think this is acceptable? We loan the US our money and have to go through such a complicated drawn-out process to get the loan repaid.
(2) The Treasury Department and IRS are underfunded and understaffed, but when Congress voted to help remedy that, the Republicans conjure up a campaign issue that the money will go to unleash an army of vindictive agents.
If I could simply open and manage a Treasury Direct account online, I'd be interested in government bonds. But I'm not about to get involved with exchanging paperwork with them (like using a tax refund to buy I-bonds).
David
Dodge and Cox Annual Reports posted What’s interesting, I think, is that EM got off to a good start this year with DODEX briefly up north of 10%. That early impetus was from mainly a retreat from China’s harsh anti-covid lockdowns plus some easing by their central bank. However, the fund has fallen back to around +2-3% YTD after a near 2% drop Friday. The early good news was offset by the balloon controversy and other growing tensions between the U.S. & China.
EM has been over-hyped since I was in my 40s (long ago). Our Templeton Funds advisor shifted our workplace 403-Bs from a very fine TEMWX back then into a newer EM fund, TEGOX, (in the early 90s). Did receive our permission first. However that fund never produced and eventually closed.
Not meant as advice - but I’d be loath to second guess D&C. Sometimes the best opportunities come along when things look grimmest.
It’s a good point Hank…. I remember
@LewisBraham commenting about a “blood in the streets” moment in China back in October. I thought he was crazy at the time. But turns out that was the turning point in the market.
Your tax dollars at work - US Treasury/Savings Bonds Last year when I mailed the tax refund savings bonds I actually did receive, I didn't send them certified. My thinking was:
- if the USPS loses the mail, handing them a tracking number will not locate it (I've gone through that process); or
- if TD says it didn't receive the mail when it did, it will be pointless arguing with them since they'll still insist I file another form for reissue; or
- if TD does receive the savings bonds, TD will send an email acknowledgement three months later (which is what happened):
Dear Customer,
This is a system generated email to communicate we received your Savings Bonds/Treasury Marketable Securities materials.
Cases are worked in the order they are received in our office. Your request is important to us and will receive attention as soon as possible. Please allow up to 13 weeks for review and processing. If we require additional information, we will contact you. Thank you for your patience.
Please retain the Customer Number and Case Number referenced above to streamline any future actions associated with this request. Also note, you may receive multiple email notifications and Case Numbers depending on the type of transaction(s) you have requested.
If you have additional questions, please use the Contact Us link on TreasuryDirect.gov.
We appreciate your interest in U.S. Treasury securities.
Remember too, stamps were 8% cheaper back then (58¢) :-(
Keeping the single savings bond in my safe deposit box raises other concerns. Will that box still be around in 30 (now 29) years? Will I? Why create an additional hassle for an executor by keeping it separate from all the electronic savings bonds?
Cashing savings bonds at banks can have its own problems - while most (but not all) banks will redeem savings bonds, many require that you have accounts with them, sometimes long term.
after an uptick in fraud, some banks quit accepting themSept 2022,
https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/us-paper-savings-bonds-taking-long-time-to-cash/Some banks and credit unions may be able to cash savings bonds, but that service isn’t currently available at Capital One.https://www.capitalone.com/learn-grow/money-management/how-to-cash-in-savings-bonds/To cash in a savings bond(s) at your local [U.S. Bank] you must [be] ... A signer on a U.S. Bank checking, savings or money market account that has been open for five (5) years or more.https://www.usbank.com/customer-service/knowledge-base/KB0209712.html
Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6% This conflict on redlining aside, it’s funny to me to see people get nostalgic about their cars when they were young. Much of my life I took subways and buses, so I have no nostalgia for automobiles. It’s hard to get nostalgic about public transportation, although, oddly, sometimes I do: “Ah, remember that time when you were young on the train and someone taller than you was standing over you with his sweaty underarm in your face? Those were the days!” I like cities, always have, always will, yet they too had their own forms of segregation, awful in their own urban way.
There are people in NYC who live, breathe &
worship revere the subway. They can glide from here to there in light or dark - quickly & effortlessly with seemingly no pre-planning. It’s all second nature to them. With me, an occasional visitor, it’s a nightmarish mix of noise, endless steps up and down leading nowhere and other well meaning passengers who would like to offer advice but who can’t answer my questions about where we are and where we’re going because they speak some different language.
Growing up in a small town in the 50s & 60s there were lots of Protestant churches - and of course the obligatory town drunk. “Good” people (not far removed from Mayberry) I suppose. There were no African Americans or other persons of color. Just two Jewish families lived in town. “Redlining” wasn’t an issue we thought about - nor was segregation. But likely they existed under the surface, unearthed and unexposed. The nice thing about living / working in an urban area was the exposure to people of many different colors, cultures, nationalities and religions.
Back to cars. Turning
16, learning to drive and getting your first car were important than - to teenage boys anyway. We rarely could afford to buy more than a dollar’s worth of gas (about 3 gallons in those days). So a lot more time was spent parked at the local A&W or Dairy Queen than actually driving around. :)
Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6% Check out the Pointe System on THE OTHER AMERICA.COM. From an article from Time and the New York Times in 1960. In some places long before one could apply for a mortgage the would be buyer had to achieve a certain score to be acceptable to buy. According to this article a score of 50 would be the minimum. I quote here,,,,, “persons of Polish descent had to score 55, Greeks 65, Italians 75 and Jewish People 85. There were no ratings for Negroes or Orientals. “Yeah,,,, the Fabulous Fifties were just great for everyone!
Thoughts on JEPI? While longer-term record (2020- ) is better, JEPI has been struggling since 2022 (like most other things) with a cumulative TR -3.85% and price-return -
14.78%. I don't want to start another debate on yield vs TR, BUT for JEPI, HIGH distributions have been with DECLINING NAV. But I also see ROC as zero.
Call-writing is an income generation strategy, not a capital preservation strategy.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=JEPI&compare=_JEPI&id=p09055307830
Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6% I personally know for an absolute fact that redlining was vigorously practiced in San Francisco by real-estate brokers. In the late fifties/early sixties a close friend worked for a real estate broker, and she bragged about how they prevented "incursions" by certain minorities into "white neighborhoods".
Out present home in SF was built in 1918, and when we bought the home in the 1970s I read the information provided by the title insurance company. That information included photocopies of the original property documentation for the property "tract", which included restrictions on (among other things) using the property for a laundry, stables, or ownership by anyone not of the Caucasian race.