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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TRP: Active Funds Outperformed Passive Peers
    Actually, not a bad study by Price of its own funds. M* JP noted that comparisons were with M* category averages rather than each fund's benchmark, but that would have only changed some numbers.
    https://twitter.com/syouth1/status/1598088431153840128
    image
  • Mid & Small
    Another SV fund to consider is a relatively conservative approach QRSVX. Holds up well in down turns but won't blow the doors off if stocks decide to go full-bull again. 5* fund, mainly small and midcap, but holds about 14% large also and about the same in treasuries. Maybe you can call it multi-cap. The only domestic small cap I own... FWIW.
  • Unusual VIX Today, 12/12/22
    On a strong market day,
    stock VIX, VXN, RVX up; bond MOVE up;
    EM VXEEM down; gold GVZ down; oil OVX down. Looks strange.
    Also interesting that, historically, VIX down on SP500 down days is MORE common than VIX up on up days (like today; also looks an outlier).
    Chart LINK
    image
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    I intend to go into '23 pretty much the same way I went into '22. That is I'll be muddling along drifting where the current takes me. I hold a good slug of dividend paying blue chips that haven't skipped a beat for over 10-25 years. I have a goodly sum of CEF bond funds and BDC's which although they've come down in price, are still over-earning and paying their monthly 9-12% distributions. But lastly, and maybe most importantly I purchased for the first time ever a S&P 500 fund back in Feb-Mar that is only down like less than 3% to date. I will continue to add to that should Mr. Market crash and burn again while meanwhile stockpiling those before mentioned distributions until the fog lifts. If all the experts with all their resources can't seem to agree on where we are going what clue does anyone, including me, think I have.
    One final thought, @hank favorite columnist Randall Forsyth shared an interview with Felix Zulauf recently in Barron's Market Vet Predicts the Next Decade Will Be Awful for the 60/40 Portfolio. How to Invest. I don't know if his track record is any better than 50-50 but a lot of what he said made sense.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    #ON csp 12/23 expiration price 65 Delta 20.... #On severe resistance near 65.5... 80bucks premium... Free $$
    If assigned next Fri will hold
    Techs chips could be very good hold or 12 24 months
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    HCA Healthcare, Inc. 7.5% 11/06/2033
    BBB- / Baa3
    Callable
    Available at Schwab
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Good morning
    Added more hca healthcare bond
    Big hospital system expanding in TX hope won't bankrupt... Hard beat 6.2% annual income... Good Hedgie... So many etf bonds mf have this vehicle
    404119AJ8
    Happy holidays
    Have hca for 4 5 yrs now nothing bad happen
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Yes sir @Catch22
    Only use 5% of portfolio tradings but quit past few months hurt pretty bad and massive downswings/ impossible time market, can only speculate and wrong more than 60% of time
    Passive portfolio keep buying sp500 Vang2045, and Corp Bonds, this is what I been doing last 12 yrs before trading and had annual ~9% returns until late 2021... Why fix when not broken. 2023 likely use same investment philosophy, think if get 5 7% annual returns I am happy
    Thx for suggestions kind regards
    This week's CPI Tues 13th
    7.3% Market consensus
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Sorry my bad, corrections/ was thinking of data few wks ago regard rsi for Ust when 2 yrs yield was > 4.5% prices and did not look at this wk chart for Ust. Thank you sir Yogibeabull for the mistake corrected .
    The reverse maybe true now and $SPY may go down w macd crossover, unable to support 200d MA 50 and 50 days MA past wk, and rsi was higher than 50 60 past few wks. $UST and $UUP reached support levels may have momentum changes w low rsi and may have short upswings from here.
    Unless cpi inflation data weds extremely good on Dec 13th, spy may have good rally afterwards. Lots bear folks Shorting betting last leg downs spy ( - 7 - 10%) next few wks.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hello my name is R Berleth. I am a collections attorney in Houston Texas. Over a year ago A Texas Court appointed my firm as Receiver to collect a multimillion dollar Judgment against TBO and Its CEO. I have been after both since. I have a lot of time and research in this case that we both can benefit from. This is the first time I have gotten a strong lead on the company doing recent business. I think I can be a great help you and would like to set up a time to get as much info as possible. As a Receiver over both debtors had a broad range of power to collect. Some of these options I do not want to write in a public post as to give any possible notice to the Company or CEO of my strategy. Please email my associate Mr Perez if you would like set up a time to talk at [email protected] or call my office at 713-588-6900.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    @johnN, @catch22, StockCharts for $USTxy will show RSI(14). But it isn't useful in the TA sense of trading (overbought or oversold) as the rates are driven by the FOMC actions.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST6M&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p14004950173
  • Mid & Small
    Hi guys,
    Middle East funds or India that you like.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    Hello, Pudd.
    I've been tracking QAT, with the World Cup in mind, but development there is a long-term good bet, I think. So far, it's not fallen far enough for me to decide to begin a starter position. At the moment, it's just about at break-even for '22. For the 1-year time period, it's exactly FLAT. Of course, there are dividends.
    The RSI is at 33, pretty much oversold, at least technically. 12-month yield of 3.96%. Upside capture looks weak, actually: 59.
    There's no perfect world. But I am very much aware of the use of foreign workers under contract. Many countries do that. My wife worked Singapore and Taiwan on that basis, before I knew her. A cousin is under the same arrangement right now in Croatia. Those employees are virtually indentured servants. It's legalized slavery. But they take the job because in their fecal home country, prospects are even worse. Qatar's build-out for the World Cup includes a great many such workers. Another reason I've held back.
    Here's another: UAE.
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/uae/quote
    https://www.profitspi.com/stock/view.aspx?v=stock-chart&uv=100563&p=UAE
    This website shows QAT with a 7.7% yield. Stale? Or more up to date than Morningstar?
    https://www.stockrover.com/research/insight/analysts/quotes/QAT
    UAE:
    https://www.stockrover.com/research/insight/summary/quotes/UAE
    ******************
    EDIT:
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/12/four-people-charged-in-eu-parliament-corruption-investigation
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    I never liked to keep money parked and unused.
    Watching for pullbacks, dollar-cost-averaging into my single stocks via the brokerage. The FUNDS in the T-IRA will have to grow on their own. Makes no sense in my situation to add new money to T-IRA now. Rearranging that money is always an option, though.
    I'm going to cut back on financials PRISX after waiting probably too long for that one to produce. I bought too early. I'm considering a junk ETF. Also, AGEPX has been on my radar for a full year. Dividend-paying equities might be my best bet PRFDX.
    Before making any New Year moves, here I am:
    14 growth
    45 blend
    41 value
    70 stocks, only 9 percent foreign.
    25 bonds
    3 cash
    1 other
    Financials 34%
    Energy 12%
    Tech. 12%
    Healthcare 11%
    Sadly, the war in Ukraine will continue. Inflation will indeed be sticky. Where will the terminal rate be? My utterly ignorant guess is that it might be 6.5 to 7 percent. And then they will probably exceed that. WTF do I know???
    RE is less than 3% of my stuff. The plurality is in PSTL. Safe. But will it rise? i think it's suffering a knock-on effect along with the rest of the RE Market. Holding here, not adding to that one. Let the $$ I put in there PRODUCE!
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    "”economy slows down but also muddles along” - That’s as good a guess as any."
    I sat in SUV at Walmart for 45 minutes after dropping gal pal off to exchange 70" TV. Lesson learned, don't take open boxes.
    This happened Sat. 3:45 ish. LOTs of shoppers , parking lot about 75% or more full.
    Point taken , Christmas pushing economy at this time. After New Years salute, I'm thinking economy to slow way down ! Trucker says it's getting harder to find loads.
    As of this time I'm looking at some sales come Monday , with CD's & T Bills being bought.
    Going further out on maturities 12,18,24 months.
    FWIW, Derf
  • Mid & Small
    Hi sir been trading FXI since 2017in and out positions and sold most of it in June 2022 (buy high sell low lol). Have added back more last 4 5 wks. I Think it's like sp500 for China and maybe very good imho hold long terms. Ever since Xi decided to open more and restrict less covid its been uptrend, I think it may go up another 8-15% by next 12 months but lots speculation, definitely a long term hold for us. Friend say China and India Vietnam could be very good long terms
    We also have YINN 3x China bull etf but very agressive, we been selling weekly puts w $yinn just get premium and very volatile with high daily trades volumes.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    I'm currently allocated as per below
    - Alts: 55%
    - US Stocks: 13%
    - Intl Stocks: 3%
    - US Bonds: 24%
    - Cash: 5%
    In 2023, I expect to get cash closer to 10% and Alts closer to 50% Good luck to all
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    I’ll be sticking with the same allocation model I’ve used all this year. By design it allows for adding or reducing risk when it seems appropriate: 45% Alts / 20-25% Growth / 20-25% Income / 8-12% Speculative
    Am still overweighted on the growth part at 24.5%. Income (a mix of bond funds / cash) is on the low end at 20%. Earlier in the year I took income all the way down to 16-17% and growth up to around 27%. Did that to pick off some attractive prices when the DJI was flirting with 28,000.
    Don’t do CDs. Like what little cash I hold to be liquid so can play around with it. As far as the Alt segment goes, it’s quite stable (currently 4 funds). Rarely mess with it. The Spec allocation is quite diversified at present and serves as a bit of a hedge against big moves in equities. It includes among other things: a small hold on inverse SPDN to dampen volatility; a bit of GLTR; some CCOR - which is an intriguing fund. If it had a longer track record I’d hold a bigger chunk.
    -
    PS - As noted a few days ago in the “Buy / Sell” thread, I did unload 2 significant equity holdings recently and used the proceeds to fund CVSIX which became part of the Alt sleeve. Mixed reasons for that move. One of the equities had had a good run this year and didn’t want to press my luck. At the same time, income-bearing investments - like CVSIX holds - are now more attractive than they were 6 months to a year ago owing to much higher prevailing interest rates. Some of the resultant risk reduction relates to perceived distribution needs going into 2023. I realize it’s unorthodox, but the 2 equities sold had previously been included in my “Alt” sleeve. So the move didn’t significantly alter my model allocation.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Don't forget about major recessions, jobs loss, unstable banking systems due Feds potential over corrections, lots folks won't be able to pay for houses and cars along w job loss (triple whammy).... I think Ukraine Russian issues are priced in unless nuclear arsenals are used. Oil Xle would be worst asset to hold going forward next 12 18 months due to high rates. US dollars, Ust be very careful, it's too high now w high RSI ( except ust 10 yrs or 20yrs extremely cheap).
    We are still young and don't know how to time market well. Could be stagnation for 12 24 months (look at high rates high inflation, high unemployment environments in 1990s downturns stagnation conditions for quite a long time).
    We Keep buying stocks while cheap hope hold for 15 20 yrs til retirement hopeful 3x by then 2035. Been dca into growth, techs stocks, emergent markets, US Sp500, and 401k still at 90/10 distributions.
    Unless near retirement would be in lots Corp Bonds ust cash cd and less riskier assets, maybe 40% stocks. Friend 70 yo has 70% stocks unclear why but that her monies. Mama retired portfolios 70s% fixed asset and safe vehicles, she loss about 17% last 12 months but made some back. Biggest holders: Fidelity 2015 tdf, fbnd, and lots Corp bonds
    Happy holidays