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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    LOL - I owned the 210. The Bel Air was the top-end. More chrome on the sides behind which road salts could collect and lead to earlier rust problems.
    I picked up my 210 from a local junk yard for around $250 in 1962. Straight-6. Apparently it had seen taxi service in some city. Pretty well wore out by the time I got it. Still a pretty good looker, however, in two-tone green. The 3 speed tranny would occasionally lock-up in reverse. The options were (1) to crawl underneath and manipulate the linkage by hand, or (2) drive back home in reverse - which I recall doing on at least one occasion.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Great sketch from David. Sure resembles the classic ‘57 Chevy, prettiest car I ever owned.
    Which model? Even without seeing the sketch (blocked), I can tell from the URL that it is the high end Bel Air. There were two other models, the 150 and the 210.
    https://www.hagertybroker.ca/apps/valuationtools/search/Auto/1957/Chevrolet?type=5&bodytypegroup=2
    in most cases it's the Bel Air that receives the lion's share of attention. One might even go so far as to question whether or not Chevy even produced anything other than the Bel Air (and Corvette) in 1957, yet two other models were rolling for the assembly line: the 150, for the economy-minded consumer, and the 210, which bridged the gap between the 150 and the luxurious Bel Air.
    https://www.hemmings.com/stories/article/1957-chevrolet-150-210-series
    I didn't have the opportunity to drive a 57 Chevy (a 150 straight-6) until decades later, at which point it drove like a truck. Good thing it had a large steering wheel for leverage when turning. I just assumed that the effort required was due to its aged condition. Though even at that age, the manual transmission was the smoothest I've ever driven.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    When Hell Freezes Over. February 20 - February 24, 2023

    ***A phrase used to say that one thinks that something will never happen.***
    A snippet of recent correspondence between myself and Jay Powell: I noted to him that I remained concerned that a lot of damage would take place to the economy attempting to achieve a 2% inflation rate in the near future. He replied that the policy was in place and would remain so and until and 'When Hell Freezes Over'. My last reply this week, of which, I've yet to receive his reply, included this image.
    :) :) :)
    Hell, Michigan is near Ann Arbor. The entire area is part of a massive freezing rain storm on Wednesday, and still finds 100,000's without power as of Saturday.
    "Mr. Powell, you and friends, now have your excuse to move rates with caution; as to not break the economy too much."
    --- U.S.$ UP +1.33% for the week, +1.82% YTD (Big POP this week)
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
    *** Bonds of most flavors received a face slap 'again' this week. I'm still inclined towards IG bonds for the longer term, being year(s) not months; when the FED rates increases begin to stop and move downward. Duration right now is important for we investors, as the yield's for the short end are 'high'; as noted in the yield curve notations in the above chart. At some point, when the economy finds a defined direction; longer duration will find a path. I keep watching for rotations with yields/pricing, as I lean more towards attempting to find the profit from pricing; but right now I'm happy with the +4% yields of a MMKT. NOTE: MMKT yields have flat lined the past few weeks.
    --- About those MMKT's. As this may be a choice of more folks going forward during likely increased FED rates; and the zig-zag in the equity and bond markets, a look at one component of numerous MMKT funds.
    REPOS: The repo market is essentially a two-way intersection, with cash on one side and Treasury securities on the other. They’re both trying to get to the other side.
    One firm sells securities to a second institution and agrees to purchase back those assets for a higher price by a certain date, typically overnight. The contract those two parties draw up is known as a repo. Essentially, it’s a short-term collateralized loan. And just as most loans come with an interest payment, you can think of the difference between the original price and the second, higher price, as the “interest” paid on that loan. It’s also known as “the repo rate.” More HERE.
    Lastly, one may expect the FED to go back to the well of high rates, eh???; as they may not be pleased with all of the data points they gather. The economy remains too HOT in many sectors!
    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 20 - Febuary 24, 2023
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo rates and ended the week at 4.47% . The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time. *** These rates have now mostly flat lined for two weeks.
    --- AGG = -.9% / +.39% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.--% / +1.13% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.3% / -.1% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.8% / -.4% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1.13% / -.27% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.83% / +.11% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.38% / +.11% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.48% / -.06% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.7% / +1.12% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -1.38% / +1.67% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -1.5% / +2.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -1.6% / +2.6% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +2.8% / -2.9% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -4.2% / +1.7% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.87% / +.47% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -1.1% / +.71% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = -.33% / +2.94% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.52% / +1.22% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -.82 %/+1.12% (VanEck HY Muni
    --- MUB = -.63% /-.08% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -.23%/+1.04% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -1.7% / +4.46% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -1.03% / +7.2% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.47% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Did Cambiar Aggressive Value CAMAX turn into the ETF CAMX?
    From the looks of it, you are correct: https://cambiar.com/etf/camx/ Conversion to ETFs is indeed a trend, but one interesting development is it hasn’t worked for most mutual funds trying to increase their assets. They’re still losing money after they convert:
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/mutual-fund-to-etf-conversions-failed-to-attract-investors-in-2022
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Modern AWD are really FWD much of the time. But if any slippage is detected (e.g. by differences in wheel RPMs), the RWD portion kicks in. Some call this part-time 4WD or auto-4WD. The AWD designs vary too - some normally have front, rear split of 100%FWD, 0%RWD (until RWD needed), others have low constant splits, 70-90% FWD, 10-30% RWD (until more RWD needed).
    There are permanent AWD too where the front-rear split is fixed and never changes.
    The old 4WD were really 2WD/RWD until the car was stopped and 4WD was engaged.
    AWD was a PR term to avoid confusion with the old and clunky manual 4WD.
    Race cars tend to have RWDs. A principle of physics/engineering is that on acceleration, more weight shifts to the rear-wheels and that gives better racing traction. On braking, more weight shifts to front wheels, so that is why front brakes are typically larger, and may wear out faster.
    Sorry, none of this relates to Jamie Dimon. But this is just an addendum to the car discussion.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    +1.
    I remember big, heavy, clunky DeSotos, smaller Studebakers, Nash Rambler, Hudson, along with Ford, Plymouth, Dodge, Chevy, Olds, Cadillac. Lincoln. Mercury. Edsel. Seems to me, the sheet metal was thicker, heavier. You could "pound out" a small dent. And I recall the old line: "You could get any color you wanted, as long as it was black." Just a bit before my time.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    The site comes up as potentially compromised in my security software.
    No matter. I mispoke. What I was thinking of was front wheel drive.
    Rear wheel drive cars have better balance than front wheel drive cars. Because the balance is better, the handling of the car will be better. Front wheel drive cars have most of the weight of the engine and transaxle over the front wheels. On the other hand, rear wheel drive cars distribute the weight of its drivetrain more evenly from front to rear.
    https://www.bmwofbridgewater.com/blog/2018/december/13/front-wheel-drive-vs-rear-wheel-drive.htm
  • White House Announces New Sanctions on Russia
    +1.
    Yes, I've come to a decision: I'll invest in companies that offer a 3% div. or better. Then hold on for the long haul. My single stocks are all in different industries, too. I did that deliberately. :)
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    This week’s guest has experienced multiple economic and market cycles during his more than 50 years of managing money and thinks the current one is particularly perilous for investors. In an exclusive WEALTHTRACK appearance, he felt it was important to tell us why and what steps we should consider taking to mitigate its effects.
    Feb 25, 2023

  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Yeah.
    I grew up in a Leave It to Beaver family (not really) and city in SW Ohio starting 76y ago, middle-class if not upper-middle-class, but thank goodness had liberally educated, progressive, allocentric parents who knew what freedom is for and what our obligations are to others.
    They pushed hard for and helped get enacted fair housing legislation, among other local initiatives (religiously though not color-integrating the country club, bringing the MJQ to the local symphony, active in LWV, Planned Parenthood, all that sort of thing).
    Many of my friends' families were not like that, though lots were (through church and local university).
    Now, in a true black comedy piece of history, I find out that where we moved to, on the north side, in the early 1950s had begun its life (long before my parents arrived) as a restricted redlining model for the entire bleeding country.
    https://www.pbs.org/video/redlining-harry-kissel-ozarwf/
    FDR's admin adopted of Harry Kissell's recommendations. Oi!
    Off-topic,
    @msf
    >> remember that cars were much lighter then and the engines weren't sitting over the front axle.
    Not clear what cars are being thought of here, but every Chevy (and all the rest) I drove from the 1950s and 1960s had exactly that distribution:
    https://conceptbunny.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/1957-Chevrolet-Bel-Air.gif
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    +1.
    Mass. College of Liberal Arts used to be known as the North Adams State Teachers' College, before everything shifted and got fancified and dandied-up. Special names for lovely wonderful institutions. Because we are ALL special and wonderful and glorious and super-dooper and fabulous. How DARE you tell me I have AVERAGE ability????
    "How come, in former lifetimes, everybody's somebody famous?"
    -----Crash Davis.

    Yes indeed, there was red-lining. And we never heard it referred to. It was a dirty little secret. Now there's no more redlining, and the crime is ALL OVER the city. What have we fixed?
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    . In western New England, Jim Crow was a thing that never entered our minds.
    That was the problem.
    Powerful maps: Groundbreaking report exposes ‘redlining’ in Pittsfield’s past that kept Black citizens in poverty cycle
    'Jim Crow in everything but name'
    By Heather Bellow, The Berkshire Eagle April 16, 2022
    In 1956, the situation had only worsened.
    ...
    It wasn’t Jim Crow laws that helped lock a poverty cycle in place — those were illegal in Massachusetts.
    It was a [redlining] map of Pittsfield.
    ...
    The HOLC, as it is known, made color-coded maps that divided neighborhoods in U.S. cities by creditworthiness and risk for lenders.
    It coded the “hazardous” neighborhoods in red, subjecting those residents to a lack of investment that would continue to plague future generations and segregate a city to this day.
    The authors of a groundbreaking report, “Redlining in Pittsfield: A case study,” lay all of this out, focusing on the West Side neighborhood, and revealing that the Berkshires, like the rest of the Northeast, had its own way of keeping people of color down.
    “We didn’t have Jim Crow laws but we had Jim Crow in everything but name,” said Kamaar Taliaferro, an NAACP Berkshire County Branch officer and community leader specializing in housing, and one of the report’s leading authors.
    ...
    “Many folks don’t think of Berkshire County as a Detroit or a Chicago,” [co-author Frances Jones-Sneed, Prof. Emeritus, Mass. College of Liberal Arts] said of what the report calls a “false distance.”
  • White House Announces New Sanctions on Russia
    @hank
    I can always count on you to make sense of it. Thank you. So... currency exchange. I'd not thought of that. Yes, NHYDY was up over 30% last year at one point for me. Back down to more like 14% now. I'm sticking with it. I've looked at everything and anything I can find about that company. As much as one can have faith in any of this investment stuff, I think they know how to steer the ship. Sadly, there have been recent layoffs. Expecting reduced demand. Lovely dividend, though, too. Fwd. Div. yield = 7.63%. Trailing div. yield = 9.47%. Payout ratio = 44.23%.
  • PRTXX performance
    Our local bank is still only paying .01 on our checking account, so we only keep a few thousand there as we can quickly transfer cash from PRTXX if needed.
  • Lazard Emerging Market Debt Portfolio to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041323000476/c105767_497.htm
    497 1 c105767_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard Emerging Market Debt Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    The Board of Directors of The Lazard Funds, Inc. (the “Fund”) has approved the liquidation of Lazard Emerging Market Debt Portfolio (the “Portfolio”).
    No further investments are being accepted into the Portfolio, except for investments by certain brokers or other financial intermediaries or employee benefit or retirement plans (acting on behalf of their clients or participants) with pre-existing investments in the Portfolio pursuant to an agreement or other arrangement with the Fund, the Distributor or another agent of the Fund regarding Portfolio investments. Promptly upon completion of liquidation of the Portfolio’s investments, the Portfolio will redeem all its outstanding shares by distribution of its assets to shareholders in amounts equal to the net asset value of each shareholder’s Portfolio investment. It is anticipated that the Portfolio’s assets will be distributed to shareholders on or about April 25, 2023.
    Prior to the liquidation of the Portfolio, depending on the arrangements of any broker or other financial intermediary associated with your account through which Portfolio shares are held, the Fund’s exchange privilege may allow you to exchange shares of the Portfolio for shares of the same Class of another series of the Fund in an identically registered account. Please see the section of the Prospectus entitled “Shareholder Information—Investor Services—Exchange Privilege” for more information.
    Dated: February 24, 2023
  • Lazard Emerging Markets Strategic Equity Portfolio to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041323000479/c105769_497.htm
    497 1 c105769_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard Emerging Markets Strategic Equity Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    The Board of Directors of The Lazard Funds, Inc. (the “Fund”) has approved a Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”) with respect to Lazard Emerging Markets Strategic Equity Portfolio (the “Acquired Portfolio”) and Lazard Emerging Markets Core Equity Portfolio (the “Acquiring Portfolio”), each a series of the Fund. The Plan provides for the transfer of all of the Acquired Portfolio’s assets and liabilities to the Acquiring Portfolio in a tax-free exchange solely for Institutional Shares and Open Shares of the Acquiring Portfolio, the distribution of such shares of the Acquiring Portfolio to Acquired Portfolio shareholders and the subsequent termination of the Acquired Portfolio (the “Reorganization”). The Reorganization will become effective on or about June 22, 2023.
    In anticipation of the Reorganization, effective on or about February 27, 2023 (the “Sales Discontinuance Date”), the Acquired Portfolio will be closed to any investments for new accounts. Shareholders of the Acquired Portfolio as of the Sales Discontinuance Date may continue to make additional purchases and to reinvest dividends and capital gains into their existing Acquired Portfolio accounts up until the time of the Reorganization.
    An Information Statement/Prospectus with respect to the proposed Reorganization will be mailed to Acquired Portfolio shareholders in May 2023. The Information Statement/Prospectus will describe the Acquiring Portfolio and other matters. Investors may obtain a free copy of the Prospectus of the Acquiring Portfolio at www.lazardassetmanagement.com/us/en_us/funds or by calling (800) 823-6300.
    Dated: February 24, 2023
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    @ Junkster. I would also take exception to your characterization that “everyone” had life like the Nelsons and the Cleavers. In 1982 I was in the very isolated fishing village of Bahia Tortuga on the west coast of Mexico. Quite by accident I met a woman from my suburban paradise. I gushed about what a great place it was to grow up back in the day and she went nuts. She let loose with a flood of bitterness and bad memories that she had been carrying with her for decades. And I bet she wasn’t the only one.
    I expected to catch flak for what I said and deservedly so. I was most blessed in the 50s with an idyllic and Norman Rockwell childhood. I was in the right place at the right time in the right community with the right parents. Luck of the draw I suppose. I realize that may not have been the case for others. Some of my friends who were also blessed by being children of the 50s grew into adulthood with an assortment of problems, some drug related, others suffering a multitude of failed marriages/relationships. Unfortunately, many are now 6 feet under. The victims of the ravages of advancing age. That may have been the cause of my outburst seeing yet another old friend pass yesterday.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    @ Junkster. I would also take exception to your characterization that “everyone” had life like the Nelsons and the Cleavers. In 1982 I was in the very isolated fishing village of Bahia Tortuga on the west coast of Mexico. Quite by accident I met a woman from my suburban paradise. I gushed about what a great place it was to grow up back in the day and she went nuts. She let loose with a flood of bitterness and bad memories that she had been carrying with her for decades. And I bet she wasn’t the only one.