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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    The 1950s were not good times to have cancer, or be exposed to polio, measles or mumps as there were only just beginning to have vaccines, or to get heart disease. Bacterial disease was on the run as Penicillin was widely available along with other antibiotics
    Cancer chemotherapy was only beginning to be effective in the 1960s, but as late as the 80's my cousin died in six weeks from colon cancer that very likely would be halted today. I can't remember the last time I saw someone die from the first or even second heart attack, if they got to the hospital in time. Happened all the time before angioplasty.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    @Junkster I'm sorry to tell you that the gold old days of the 1950s weren't so good for people who didn't look like you. Half the population, women, faced limited job, salary and education prospects because of discrimination while many in the remaining half did too if they looked, felt or believed differently from the mainstream. A number of happy couples I know today wouldn't even be allowed to walk down the street.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Why is it people always remember the lower prices from the past, the music and young love, but so rarely the horrors? Wally and the Beave weren’t the 1950s reality for many if not most people who lived back then. I doubt it was even the reality for the actors playing Wally and the Beave. Yet half the nation wants to go back. Nor is this meant to pick on you. I have bouts of nostalgia too.
    You are as wrong as wrong can be here. I believe it is called while privilege now and I am suppose to feel guilty. But with just about everyone, and I mean *everyone* I grew up with in the 50s it was indeed exactly like Wally and Beaver and Ozzie and Harriet. That was the reality. It was the best of times. No horrors whatsoever. Things began changing in the 60s with Kennedy’s assassination, the British Invasion, the Vietnam War, and drugs. But what do I know, I am just some ancient relic from the past. But fortunately still enjoying life to the fullest due in part from that idyllic childhood and upbringing of the 50s.
    Edit: Just thought about one horror of the 50s which fortunately didn’t impact me - pedophilic priests.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Just wonder if the Fed would act on inflation, say 6 months earlier?
    At the height of the pandemic, Powell cut rate from to 0.25% while increase monthly buying of treasury bonds and later mortgage bonds. Rate hike started in March 2021 by 25 bps when they realized they were way behind to control their 2% inflation target. 6% rate suggested by Dimon would bring this economy into deep recession.
  • U.S. consumer spending surges in January; inflation heats up
    Annualized CPI, PPI, PCE were ALL higher than expected. That is BAD.
    However, the (wholesale) PPI was LESS than the (retail) CPI and that is good.
    The AAII Sentiment Indicator collapsed (see a nearby thread). Don't sell much when the Sentiment is very poor.
    Thrust indicators from January/February remain in place until proven otherwise.
    But keep an eye on SP500 200-dMA and VIX. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70110975086
  • Touchstone Dynamic Allocation Fund to be converted into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/711080/000168386323001292/f24562d1.htm
    497 1 f24562d1.htm 497 SUPPLEMENT
    TOUCHSTONE STRATEGIC TRUST
    Touchstone Dynamic Allocation Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated February 24, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information ("SAI") dated April 29, 2022, as supplemented from time to time
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE FUND
    Proposed Reorganization
    On February 16, 2023, the Board of Trustees of the Touchstone Strategic Trust (“Trust”) approved converting the Fund into an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) by the reorganization of the Fund into a new ETF, which upon filing and regulatory approval will be a newly-created fund in the Touchstone family of funds, (the “Reorganization”). The Fund’s shareholders will be required to approve the Reorganization. Additional information about the ETF will be available on or about March 13, 2023.
    A proxy statement/prospectus containing more information regarding the Reorganization will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and once effective, will be mailed to Fund shareholders in the second quarter of 2023. A special meeting of the Fund’s shareholders is expected to be held in the third quarter of 2023 (the “Special Meeting”), at which shareholders of record of the Fund will be asked to vote on the proposal to approve the Reorganization. If the Reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders at the Special Meeting and subject to certain additional conditions, the Reorganization is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2023. Expenses associated with the Reorganization will be borne by Touchstone Advisors, Inc.
    * * * * *
    The foregoing is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, any shares in connection with the Reorganization, nor is it a solicitation of any proxy.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
    TSF-54CC-TST-TSMAX-S12-2302
  • Jeffrey Gundlach says he’s preparing for a recession and it doesn’t matter what you call it— ‘In eit
    This article is behind a paywall. If you subscribe to Apple News, you can get access to some of them. Note that he has been calling for this for several years and he is finally got it right.
    Gundlach’s status on Wall Street these days is undeniable, and he went on to dish out some advice for investors on Wednesday, arguing U.S. Treasuries may be the safe haven of choice amid a “protracted bear market” in stocks. He said that DoubleLine has incrementally increased Treasury exposure, decreased credit exposure, and upgraded the quality of its bond portfolio over the past year.
    “I always say, ‘Don’t listen to what I say, look at what I do.’ And we started de-risking, if you will, in the fourth quarter of 2021,” he told Yahoo Finance, adding that he has “been preparing for a hard landing” for some time.
    https://fortune.com/2023/02/23/billionaire-bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-preparing-recession-you-need-an-umbrella/
  • U.S. consumer spending surges in January; inflation heats up
    PCE went up in January as CPI. This is one of Fed’s metric monitored carefully. As a result, another round of sell off in both stocks and bonds today.
    The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index shot up 0.6% last month, the largest increase since June 2022, after gaining 0.2% in December. In the 12 months through January, the PCE price index accelerated 5.4% after rising 5.3% in December.
    Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.6%. That was the biggest gain since August 2022 and followed a 0.4% rise in December. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in January after advancing 4.6% in December.
    The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for monetary policy. The government reported on Thursday that inflation increased much faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter, mostly reflecting upgrades to consumer and producer price data published this month. That left some economists to expect that the road to disinflation would be slow and bumpy.
    https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202302240842RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2UY12C-OUSBS_1
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    @msf : Thanks again for more info. I was wondering what to do with A199 dividends.
    Have a great day, Derf
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Takes a million dollars to get into SNAXX, so you often must give up about .15% yield and settle for its sibling SWVXX. I was able to buy SNAXX, in one of my accounts, in March of 2022, when I sold/reduced OEFs, but since then I have been able to retain SNAXX, at much lower amounts. With interest rates continuing to rise, I choose to own both SNAXX and some short term CDs paying 5%.
    I also own SNAXX, I also transferred one share from Rollover to Roth and switched from SWVXX to SNAXX at Roth. When I trade, I made sure to leave 1-2 shares of SNAXX, so I can buy it later, when I sell.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Several posts I made over the years
    1) 2020, going to cash on 2/29/2000(link). I actually posted here too(link)
    2) In early 2022, going to cash(link).
    3) In 11/2022, going back in and why (link).
    4) I posted about one good indicator I have been using for years, called 3 line break. You can read about it (here). I explained some of my trades. If you look at 3 line break (link) it's very clear why I sold early in Feb. HYD,ORNAX are HY Munis.
    Unfortunately, no more trades in real-time.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    OK - Ya got me on those cheesy little driver side mirrors. Hard to adjust - but there were some in the 60s. But the passenger side (right side) were late in coming and of course, even then, it was hard to reach over and adjust them when driving. :)
    ”Even until the late 1980s, new cars didn’t come pre-installed with passenger side-view mirrors. “ Source
    Let’s remember that the kind of people who frequented White Castle (and devoured 20-cent burgers) weren’t the wealthiest on the block. Quite likely in the 60s they were driving something built in the 50s or earlier.
    @msf - your experience with non-power steering is different from mine. The ‘57 and ‘62 Chevies I owned were a bit of a struggle to steer. But one got used to it and didn’t really notice. It’s amazing the things we got used to in those days.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    We each have different memories. Vehicles w/o mirrors are before my time:
    The National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966 addressed safety standards, including rear visibility, and although it did not specifically require [rear or side] mirrors, they started to become standard equipment in the mid-to-late '1960s.
    https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a39613608/side-view-mirror-evolution/
    Now manual steering is something else. While it could take a lot of effort to steer, remember that cars were much lighter then and the engines weren't sitting over the front axle. My old MR2 had the easiest, most responsive steering of any car I've owned - with a curb weight of 2100 lbs, mid engine (M) rear wheel (R) drive, (2) seater (MR2) - pure joy. But also decades later.
    Some TVs in the 60s, even the 50s did have wireless remote controls, but they were very limited in both capacity and availability. They were sold with some Zenith sets. The one I knew about was the "Space Command" (ultrasonic) in the 60s. Though earlier, in the 50s, Zenith had an optical remote control, the Flashmatic "ray gun". Just because you couldn't afford a remote control that cost 1/6 the price of a car (without mirrors or power steering) doesn't mean it didn't exist :-)
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20180830-the-history-of-the-television-remote-contro
    Without a remote control, this is how one adjusted a TV (Ernie Kovacs video 1½ min)
    https://content.jwplatform.com/previews/tQ5Knynv
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Nice take L.B.
    Used to buy those White Castles when visiting relatives in and around Detroit in the 60s. Remember 20 cents. I was making $1.25 an hour than at a summer job at a gas station. No benefits of course. The 3-speed stick-shift cars we drove to White Castle were clunky gas guzzlers. (20 mpg was nearly unheard of). No power steering, power brakes or turn signals. Reach out and adjust the side mirror by hand if lucky enough to have one - most cars didn’t. Might even have to hop out and change a flat tire ourselves on the way home - as “flats” were common in those days. After getting home we’d watch something on a small black & white TV - whatever the 3 or 4 available networks decided to air. No remote control of course.. Would need to get up to adjust the “vertical” or “horizontal” settings every few minutes as the picture would always go out of kilter. But the burgers tasted damn good.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    Why is it people always remember the lower prices from the past, the music and young love, but so rarely the horrors? Wally and the Beave weren’t the 1950s reality for many if not most people who lived back then. I doubt it was even the reality for the actors playing Wally and the Beave. Yet half the nation wants to go back. Nor is this meant to pick on you. I have bouts of nostalgia too.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    msf : Thanks again for covering all the bases. At this time I'm looking at an amended 2021 return.
    It occurred to me that I may have been a little loose in saying that divs = qualified divs + nonqualified divs. That's somewhat of a tautology, relying on the "law of the excluded middle" - everything is X or not X. I didn't go into what "nonqualified div" means.
    Box 1(a) - all divs - includes qualified divs (box (1(b)) and ...
    - short term gains (for mutual funds)
    - section 199A dividends (from REITs; these get a special 20% break in taxes)
    - "ordinary" nonqualified divs (nonqualified divs other than STG or Sec 199A divs)
    Perhaps I still shouldn't go into what "nonqualified div" means. That likely makes things more confusing. Just stick with 1(a) for each fund if you have that on your supplemental information (detail) statement for each fund.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    "(Remember 19 cent burgers?)" Of course. We used to get White Castle's for 8 cents and endless coffee for 5 cents a cup.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Short term CD rates of 5% are becoming more commonplace. My Capital One Bank has been offering 5% CDs for an 11 month period in recent weeks. Schwab has 4 banks offering 5% CDs for one year. If you go shorter for 6 to 9 months, you can get about 6 banks offering 4.9% CDs, and if you want to go a little longer to 18 months, there are about 4 banks offering 4.9% CDs at Schwab. I am expecting CD rates, for shorter term CDs, to approach 5.5% in the next 3 to 6 months. It is hard for a retired investor, to ignore 5%+ CDs, in very volatile markets. I am getting 4.62% Money Market rates at Schwab, in my IRA account, and I fully expect those rates to creep up to around 4.75% in the next 3 to 6 months--much better than my more liquid banking accounts at Capital One.
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    ...He got that from ME. I had the scoop before uncle Jamie. Is this really news, after all? Perhaps.
    Anyway, inflation's not going away. Unless there's another Great Depression. I learned in history class that unemployment was into the 30s percent and a full meal could be had at a restaurant for a quarter in those days. (Remember 19 cent burgers?)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgans-dimon-says-u-interest-012212631.html
  • Billions Pouring Into Bond ETFs Are Bright Spot for Blackrock / FT
    I was able to read it--- after I got past the stupid cookies page. God, there MUST be an app that can EFFECTIVELY block that crap. Anyway, it makes sense. Though ordinarily, there should not be much to worry about. Even so, we DO live in "interesting times."
    Bloomberg is airing a Ukraine War special. Surely they'll replay it so the rest of you can see it. 11:40 p.m. here, 5 hours behind the East.