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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023

    *** Bonds of most flavors received a face slap again this week, although many bond sectors were positive on FRIDAY, easing some of the losses. I'm still inclined towards IG bonds for the longer term, being year(s) not months; when the FED rates increases begin to stop and move downward. Duration right now is important for we investors, as the yield's for the short end are 'high'; as noted in the yield curve notations at MFO. At some point, when the economy finds a defined direction; longer duration will find a path. I keep watching for rotations with yields/pricing, as I lean more towards attempting to find the profit from pricing; but right now I'm happy with the +4% yields of a MMKT. This was not the case in April, 2022.
    Inflation still persists while consumer spending is healthy. The street now is expecting 3 more 25 bps rate hikes this year. All my core bond funds took a sizable hit last week. Noted that the 2 yr and 10 yr T notes are moving in recent weeks that contributed to lower bond prices. This week we are buying T bills instead as they yield close to 5%.
    Rotation from larger caps to smaller ones, especially value funds net good gain this year. Not so sure with oversea markets as the conflicts in Ukraine and China continue.
  • Nope to the NOPE ETF
    Larry-another interpretation of $hit was Saddam Hussein International Terminal !
    +1.
  • Chinese Rules for Foreign-Listed VIEs/ADRs
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/20/china-formalizes-rules-for-overseas-ipos.html
    "*The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced late Friday new rules that require domestic companies to comply with national security measures and personal data protection law before going public overseas.
    *The CSRC said its rules for overseas listings are set to take effect March 31.
    *The rules do not ban the variable interest entity structure commonly used by Chinese companies when listing in the U.S.
    ..."
    NOTE. On the other hand, the US rules for Chinese VIEs/ADRs listed in the US are for public access to financials and audits by the US PCAOB. There has been some recent progress in this area under the US threat for delisting within 3 years.
  • Nope to the NOPE ETF
    While there are several ways to achieve absolute-return strategies, NOPE uses long-short strategies as noted in the Yahoo Finance Profile before, and in its prospectus below. Noble-Impact is a subadvisor under Toroso, so the next news may be that the subadvisor is fired, and after a few weeks, the ETF is shut - my guesses without any inside knowledge.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1742912/000138713122009588/nope-497k_090722.htm
    "Principal Investment Strategies
    The Fund is an actively-managed exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) that seeks to achieve its investment objective by purchasing long positions in securities expected to increase in price and/or taking short positions in securities expected to decline in price. The Fund will generally have net exposure ranging from 100% short to 150% long. When the value of the Fund’s outstanding short positions is equal to the Fund’s net assets, the Fund is 100% short. The Fund’s net exposure at any time is the total of the Fund’s percentage long holdings (including leverage) less the percentage of its short holdings. For example, if the Fund’s long holdings totaled 60% and its short holdings totaled 40%, the Fund’s net exposure would be 20% (60%-40%)."
    Among the risks mentioned,
    "Principal Investment Risks
    ...
    New Sub-Adviser Risk. The Sub-Adviser is a newly formed entity and has no experience with managing an exchange-traded fund, which may limit the Sub-Adviser’s effectiveness...."
    A search on "benchmark" showed no mention at all in the prospectus. Conservative absolute-return strategies mention risk-free rate + some spread as the goal/benchmark although those may be missed too.
  • Nope to the NOPE ETF
    I have maintained that strategies such as absolute-return, long-short (with tilt) and market-neutral (50-50 L-S) sound appealing, but the manager(s) can make mistakes twice, on the long side AND on the short side. Then, it is like candle burning from the both ends.
    Looking at the chart of this new ETF (9/28/22- ), it had a spectacular rise in December (when SP500 fell) and a terrible crash YTD when SP500 rose. So, I would say that it bet net short and lost big by overstaying with that bet.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NOPE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24793772873
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOPE/profile?p=NOPE
  • Nope to the NOPE ETF
    I bet the Noble Absolute Return ETF's adviser is regretting this ETF's "NOPE" ticker symbol. According to the fund's web site--https://noble-funds.com/--it's: "An ETF built on the philosophy of saying NOPE to passive investing, NOPE to ignoring valuations, and NOPE to asset bubbles." The ETF has declined 63% so far in 2023: https://morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/nope/performance At first, before I saw the performance, I was intrigued by the strategy, and the fund's manager, but it's hard to imagine as experienced a manager going as wrong as this one:
    Mr. Noble is the Founder and Managing Member of Noble-Impact Capital, LLC, an investment advisor and sub-advisor for the Noble Absolute Return ETF.
    Prior to forming Noble-Impact Capital, Mr. Noble spent more than 40 years managing institutional investment portfolios.
    He began his career at Fidelity Investments in 1981, working closely with legendary fund manager Peter Lynch before becoming the initial portfolio manager of Fidelity’s international equity fund earning a top ranking spanning six years. Mr. Noble then went on to manage two separate hedge funds, each of which grew to more than $1 billion in assets.
    I sometimes think if you give an active manager too much freedom, they have just enough gunpowder to blow themselves and their shareholders to Kingdom Come. This is especially so if they have no one sitting in the board room to contradict them and say, "Wait a minute, are you sure that's a good idea?" The worst part is absolute return funds are supposed to be conservative in most cases, to generate positive returns in all market environments. Nope, not this one.
  • Vanguard ETFs
    The article singles VEDTX out for having a large cap gains distribution. Modest cap gains distributions are not all that unusual. Here's a piece on Vanguard's 2012 ETF distributions, reporting that all but one of Vanguard's bond ETFs distributed cap gains that year.
    https://www.etf.com/sections/features/15419-vanguard-sets-cap-gains-on-12-bond-etfs-.html
    It goes on to describe conditions in 2012 that led to bond ETF distributions, viz. "a post-crisis environment that has seen investors pile into fixed income in one-way traffic that has limited many managers’ ability to offset cap gains through sales of available low-cost-basis securities at the portfolio level." A storm perhaps, but apparently not, according to the M* piece you linked to, a perfect storm ("Such events have not occurred since [2009].")
    The 2012 "imperfect" storm affected pure bond ETFs as well as Vanguard's hybrids.
    Most recently, even Vanguard's broadest based bond fund, BND, had cap gains distributions in 2021 (Q2 and Q4) and 2022 (Q2).
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/distributions-expenses?symbol=BND
    Or take BNDX. In 2021, it had not only long term gains but short term gains.
    https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=49817
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/distributions-expenses?symbol=BNDX
  • Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says
    @Old_Joe @hank In the year 1970 I was driving anything the Army wanted me to drive. Price Less no matter !
  • Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says
    @Old_Joe … I was ”living large” in those days. Paisley vinyl top and all. Always thought you to be the more practical type. :)
    Image / Funny - that $2,800 car brand new now sells for $19,900 used. Damn. Should have held on to it.
  • Blackstone Child Labor in Slaughterhouses and Low-Road Capitalism 2
    @larryB In aggregate, Wall Street doesn't care. Individual ESG managers do care, much like individuals of conscience throughout the world care about issues most overlook. It is also worth noting that deeply flawed though they may be, ESG ratings services do not rate either Blackstone or Norfolk Southern highly:
    https://morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/bx/sustainability
    https://morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/nsc/sustainability
    The answer to these problems I would say in the investment world is true stakeholder capitalism, a term that has become anathema to the right-wing: https://investopedia.com/stakeholder-capitalism-4774323
    Are there money managers who truly care about stakeholder capitalism? There are some. Most, though, merely play lip service to the idea. I would say one of the best fund shops that considers other stakeholders is Green Century Funds, especially when it comes to environmental issues:
    https://greencentury.com/about-us/
    Support of Environmental and Public Health Nonprofits: One hundred percent (100%) of the profits earned managing the Green Century Funds belong to our non-profit owners who run critical environmental and public health campaigns.
    The organizations which founded and own Green Century Capital Management Inc are: California Public Interest Research Group (CALPIRG), Citizen Lobby of New Jersey (NJPIRG), Colorado Public Interest Research Group (COPIRG), ConnPIRG Citizen Lobby, Fund for the Public Interest, Massachusetts Public Interest Research Group (MASSPIRG), MOPIRG Citizen Organization, PIRGIM Public Interest Lobby, and Washington State Public Interest Research Group (WASHPIRG).
    We are one of the first fossil fuel free, diversified and environmentally responsible mutual funds.
    But the money management industry, especially in the U.S., has a long way to go before it takes what stakeholder capitalism means seriously. Shareholders will need to demand that it does for things to truly change. But also, there must be pressure outside the investment world on government to truly regulate business again, to give our regulators teeth, and insist they be utterly separate from industry with regard to influence.
    I would add that Teddy Roosevelt basically had the roots of stakeholder capitalism way back when he gave his State of the Union I linked previously:https://let.rug.nl/usa/presidents/theodore-roosevelt/state-of-the-union-1902.php
    We can do nothing of good in the way of regulating and supervising these corporations until we fix clearly in our minds that we are not attacking the corporations, but endeavoring to do away with any evil in them. We are not hostile to them; we are merely determined that they shall be so handled as to subserve the public good. We draw the line against misconduct, not against wealth. The capitalist who, alone or in conjunction with his fellows, performs some great industrial feat by which he wins money is a welldoer, not a wrongdoer, provided only he works in proper and legitimate lines. We wish to favor such a man when he does well. We wish to supervise and control his actions only to prevent him from doing ill.
    The notion that these companies will do what's best for society, consumers, labor and the environment, if they're unregulated is absurd to me. In reality, unregulated business isn't even just bad for labor, consumers, communities and the environment. It's bad for every stakeholder, even shareholders and capitalism itself. Unregulated businesses cut corners, do things for short-term profits and bonuses for executives at the expense of long-term shareholder value and brand value when the scandals are revealed. And CEOs are sometimes comfortable hurting every stakeholder, including investors, as well as the general public.
  • Blackstone Child Labor in Slaughterhouses and Low-Road Capitalism 2
    @LB. “ Wall Street doesn’t care.”” Perhaps this isn’t the appropriate place to talk about it but how should caring guide our own investment policy? Build our own ESG fund? Find the best ESG fund? Skip Wall Street completely? That would have been my answer in 1971. But that was then.
  • Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says
    I don't know what inflation rate Paul Volker was aiming for.
    The Federal Reserve has targeted 2% inflation (not explicitly at first) since at least 1996.
    Several other central banks have also adopted a 2% inflation target.
    The interesting history of how this came to be is noted in the article below.
    Link
  • Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says
    "When Volcker left office in August 1987, inflation was still running at 4%, far from zero, but far below the 13% of 1979 when he had arrived as Fed Chairman. Real GDP growth was strong; fed funds were 6.6%."
    Link: American Institute for Economic Research
  • Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says
    " In 1970 I walked away with a new Plymouth Fury for $2800."
    @hank- last of the big spenders! In 1970 we bought our very first new car- a Plymouth Valiant, for an even $2000. It was blue.
    image
  • Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says
    @LarryB - interesting. I do recall interest on inventory being hard on dealers. Quite a contrast to today’s low inventories. In 1970 I walked away with a new Plymouth Fury for $2800. The dealership near Detroit was loaded with them all at that price. You even had your pick of 2 or 3 different colors.
    Re the topic under discussion. I’m worried they’re going too far. Sure hope @Old_Joe is right about the Fed. Add to the “soft”, “hard” and “no landing” discussion the possibility of a double-landing. That would be what appears to be a gentle landing and recovery at first, but followed by a hard thump.
    I try not to allow this kind of speculation affect my investing decisions. Suppose it has to to some extent.
  • Blackstone Child Labor in Slaughterhouses and Low-Road Capitalism 2
    So disgust by Parker in today’s age. The $1.5 million fine is way too small for labor violations. Is that considered human trafficking?