Global bond manager Jack McIntyre says central banks around the world are determined to stamp out inflation. Their success will determine the direction of markets and economies. He explains how he is investing for several outcomes.

Investments During a Period of Stagflation:

Stagflation is a period of economic stagnation combined with high inflation. When the economy stagnates, growth slows and unemployment rises. Demand for goods and services may decline as income levels drop. That in itself is bad enough but high inflation compounds the problem, as the income that people do have doesn’t go as far since prices are higher.

https://smartasset.com/investing/how-to-invest-during-stagflation
For a Global Bond choices, RPIEX, looks interesting
MFO Discussion Linked here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152569/#Comment_152569

Too political. I view this as more about the “madness of crowds” than anything else. May drop another 50%. As a confirmed bottom feeder I”m comfy holding a tad. With NASDAQ off over 25% YTD some of the excesses have been removed.

ouch
https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/MC3609/20220826/SUP_515436.PDF
(probably already posted; could not find)
Lost about a quarter on RWGV, which I believe, could be mistaken, was well-ranked on MFOP once upon a time in the alt world
hold till end or sell Tuesday morning?

The devastating toll of the pandemic is all too clear on our families, our cities, our nation. But we are now beginning to see an underappreciated side of the pandemic: a coast-to-coast surge in American ingenuity, drive and determination.
Even as the pandemic damaged or even destroyed many businesses, it also provided new opportunities and fostered creativity in unexpected ways.

50-states-50-startups

(They say that market bubbles can only be identified after they have popped ….)
ARKK is currently down 67.5% over 1 one-year according to CNBC. It’s off 56% YTD and about $5.00 above where it bottomed earlier in the year. This isn’t to rag on the fund and manager. But just to lend support to the idea that there certainly appears to have been a genuine “bubble” in this sector of the market.
What I’m unable to fully understand are the specific factors contributing to its continuing descent. I believe short sellers have a heavy hand here. And investors are discounting future Fed rate increases plus anticipation of a recession in their valuation of the sector. Since TSLA is its largest holding, investors to an extent may be discounting Elon Musk - a dangerous bet IMHO. @bee mentions in another thread how higher interest rates impact speculative equities hardest. Posted for whatever thoughts or insights it might inspire..
Disclosure: Am holding a very small amount of ARKK as a long-term speculative play. Off 6-7% since averaging in.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6j0eONkJK34
No safe havens in stocks bonds nor cryptos past 6 7 months.
Inflation then
Now Recession + (?deflation)
Maybe few more fed raised rates 0.5% then 0.25% Oct followed w 0. 25% nov, or QT easing off couple months...post Xmas new yr rally??
Could be speculative perhaps wishful thinking from my part... Hope feds pivot turn around soon and swift market recovery

Right sir sorry thought you collect over 5k lol
Wonder why they charge > 5k extra for inflation issues...
Sometimes maybe better to get corp bonds least they give you ytm and final costs/ expected returns info /extra fees - no gimmicks.... Just need keep track (worries) that corp bonds do not file title 7 or 11 before maturity year.
Once things more stabilize if find more good corp bonds/start buy more will pm you.
I may call schwab or vanguard bonds desks they usually give lots info Tues or weds if have time

tuhyx. junk bonds. down -13.71 ytd.
premx. em. down -19.95
fnmix em. down -17.31
agepx frontier mkt. bonds. down -14.46
yup. i own tuhyx, not the others.

Well, $207 per day would be great, but since we're talking about $1911 return over 135 days, unfortunately that's only about $14 per day, right?

Hi sir you get around ~ 207 dollars return daily until it mature on your investment ( if calculating nearly corrected) . Enough for little gas coverage.
Not bad and almost guaranteed.
Reversed situation what we have owe 15k margin several wks ago 8.2% interest rates annual... Lucky stock bounces and sold it off. Margin rates likely higher 3rd wk of September after feds smack downs meetings.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1806095/000119312522237777/d331554d497.htm
497 1 d331554d497.htm 497
POLAR CAPITAL EMERGING MARKET STARS FUND (the “Fund”)
A SERIES OF DATUM ONE SERIES TRUST
Supplement dated September 2, 2022
to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
dated July 29, 2022
Effective September 1, 2022:
1. CHANGE IN SHARE CLASS NAME
The Fund’s sole share class will no longer be designated “Institutional” and all references in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information to the “Institutional” share class will now refer to the Fund’s sole class of shares. Except as otherwise described in this Supplement, no additional changes to the characteristics of the shares of the Fund are being made in connection with this redesignation.
2. CHANGE IN INVESTMENT MINIMUM
The Fund’s initial investment minimum will be lowered from $100,000 to $5,000.
Therefore, the initial investment minimum disclosed in the section under the heading “Summary Information About the Fund” under the sub-heading “Purchase Minimums” on page 8 of the Fund’s Prospectus and the second to last paragraph under the heading “Shares” under the sub-heading “How to Buy Shares” on page 25 of the Fund’s Prospectus each is hereby updated to $5,000 from $100,000.
This Supplement and the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information should be retained for future reference.

Like few weeks news previously:
Gazprom halted gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany Friday citing a gas leak and providing no time frame for when supplies could be restarted. Market red and oil up swings after.
Nord Stream issues today and sp500 stocks crap out...

@msf-
"is that 4.028% the annualized yield, in which case the return would be much smaller"
That was the question that I didn't have the answer to: 4.08 x 135/365 ≈ 1.51%. I had a hunch that $5100 was way too much for such a short period.
The question had well over a hundred views, but no one other than you actually answered my question, so evidently I'm not the only one unclear on the concept. I guess Yogi just wrote me off as an idiot.
Thank you very much.
OJ

Global Bond Bear
The drawdown for the global bond index was recently at -20.4% for the first time in its history (1990- ). Based on the interest rate history over 5,000 years, this may be the first time ever for the global bond market. The US bond index (1976- ) had a record drawdown of -14.3% in mid-June, recent (only) -12.7%. Twitter LINK
None of this would make you feel better. But if you hold bonds in any form, including within allocation/balanced funds, you know that it has been painful. Of course, some category of bonds (HYs, EMs) and some types of bond funds (CEFs) have had even worse drawdowns.
Twitter Chart1, Global Bond Index https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpXRzBWAAE4PEb?format=png&name=medium
Twitter Chart2, US Bond Index https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpX43rWIAEYBSa?format=png&name=medium
Twitter Chart3, 5,000 Yr Rate History https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpYQ5dWYAUjXh9?format=jpg&name=medium

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836487/000110465922096956/a22-24979_1497.htm
497 1 a22-24979_1497.htm 497
Prospectus Supplement
September 1, 2022
Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
Supplement dated September 1, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Prospectus dated April 29, 2022
Global Opportunity Portfolio (the "Fund")
Effective January 2, 2023, the Fund will recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class R6 shares. Accordingly, effective January 2, 2023, the Fund's Prospectus is revised as follows:
The second paragraph of the section of the Prospectus entitled "Fund Summary—Global Opportunity Portfolio—Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares" is hereby deleted.
The second paragraph of the section of the Prospectus entitled "Shareholder Information—Share Class Arrangements" is hereby deleted.
Please retain this supplement for future reference.
=================================================================
Prospectus Supplement
September 1, 2022
Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
Supplement dated September 1, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Prospectus dated April 29, 2022
Global Opportunity Portfolio (Class IR) (the "Fund")
Effective January 2, 2023, the Fund will recommence offering Class IR shares. Accordingly, effective January 2, 2023, the Fund's Prospectus is revised as follows:
The first paragraph of the section of the Prospectus entitled "Fund Summary—Global Opportunity Portfolio—Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares" is hereby deleted.
The first paragraph of the section of the Prospectus entitled "Shareholder Information—Share Class Arrangements" is hereby deleted.
Please retain this supplement for future reference.
=====================================================================
Statement of Additional Information Supplement
September 1, 2022
Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
Supplement dated September 1, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. (the "Company") Statement of Additional Information dated April 29, 2022
Global Opportunity Portfolio (the "Fund")
Effective January 2, 2023, the Fund will recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class R6 shares. Accordingly, effective January 2, 2023, the Fund' Statement of Additional Information is revised as follows:
The second footnote following the table on the cover page of the Statement of Additional Information listing the Company's current funds is hereby deleted.
Please retain this supplement for future reference.

Yogi explained things very well. It looks like the only thing you're missing is the definition of YTM (yield to maturity). That's an annualized yield.
So for a bond maturing in 135 days, a 4.08% annual yield translates into approximately 4.08 x 135/365 ≈ 1.51%. (One could do a more precise calculation, but this is close enough, especially since as Yogi said, the future inflation adjustment is just an estimate itself.)
1.51% x $126,634.44 ≈ $1,911.
$1,911 + $126,634.44 ≈ $128,545 proceeds.

Thanks, @yogibearbull. Based on the data in this thread, throughout 2022, the equity levels have been the same, except in June when they were only 1% lower, which I can ascribe to June price decline. Seems like investors are aggressively rebalancing to maintain equity levels. What is surprising is, a lot of hedge funds currently are very low on net equity exposure relative to 2021 and their standard allocation and so some other categories like mutual funds, ETFs, pension funds, retail stock investors, etc. must be making up the short fall at hedge funds.
Interestingly, ARKK had >800M outflows in August (inclusive of nearly $200M of inflows on August 24). It had inflows only on 5 days of the month. SARK had ~150M inflows in August but most of the inflows came in the first two weeks and most of the outflows were in the second two weeks of August.

I sincerely apologize
I Think I am very wrong, after look at old data, recession-bears market downturns could be prolong (average) 18-24 months process. Probably several more legs downs sp500 likely to 3100 in next ~ 6 9 months per friend. Hang tight. Recession may end late 2023.
Of course we do have many bulls fans out there and keep preaching could be short ( only lasting 6 -9 months) , and should ease after Feds fix inflation, pivots /eased of QT, and Russia china situations significant improve. We maybe 1/3 way through already and just ~4 6 months left. Nobody know for sure.

@JohnN - I’m surprised how bonds have fallen so rapidly. My GNMA fund has been hit hard. However, I view it as a hedge of sorts. Obviously it hasn’t functioned in that manner lately. But the market is throwing lots of curve balls. Just try to duck once in a while. Should get better. :)

TUHYX junk bonds rose nicely in july and into august. getting chewed up and spit out, currently. in a big way. great yield. suck-ass share price. 9.41 percent SEC yield. and that's NOT the NCAA Southeastern Conference.
AGEPX: EM (frontier) bonds: 15.08 percent SEC yield. Holy monthly dividends, Batman!
Today, the beach was glorious. water temp = 81. So, at least there's THAT.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kailua,_Hawaii#Beach
just noticed that agepx has its 6th-largest holding in gov't bonds from ukraine. maturity date is october 12, 2022. the yield on those ukraine bonds is 14.91 percent. yes. that position in the portfolio = 1.94 percent of total. only 19 percent of AUM is in the top 10 within that portfolio. "Buy War Bonds" at your local theater!