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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy, Sell, Ponder? - July 2023
    +1, @hank. Markets can be fickle. Holding on for the long-term can help to counteract our own self-defeating impulses.
    My "experiment" with ENIC, the Chilean electric utility, was a disaster. Lost a bunch of money on that dog. And wouldn't you know? I've just seen it RECOMMENDED, and the share price is back up to where I first put my foot in "it." ...On the other hand, I have hung onto BHB and have noticed three days in particular in just the last couple of weeks: on each of those 3 days, the stock rose an amazing 4-plus percent. That's 12%+ all by themselves. And now I'm making money with that holding, rather than losing.
    Do your homework. It's essential. Even then, we are bound to screw up sometimes. We are human, after all.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    I have spent years looking for hedging, and shorting funds, starting with AQR. I could not find any consistent fund that can do it. A fund can work for several years and then stop working for other years.
    My conclusion is that the only thing that works, especially for retirees who have enough is to go to MM in high-risk markets and back to invest when markets are "normal. Sure, it's called timing. Timing doesn't have to be perfect, just good, just like investing isn't. All you got to do is come up with a system and try, if it does not work then stop.
    Here is another point that many miss. Missing the worst days is better than missing the best days.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/timing-the-market-pays-off-buy-and-hold-51588186928
    So here’s the full truth, according to data from Ned Davis Research. From 1979 to mid-April of 2020, the S&P 500 Total Return Index gained 11.23% per annum. Sure, if you missed the best 40 days, returns shrunk to 5.21%. How about if you missed the worst 40 days? Nobody ever talks about that, because you’d be accused of market timing. Guess what? Your returns would soar to 18.83% annually. And importantly, if you missed both the best and the worst 40 days, you actually beat the market at 12.39%.
    FD: and more importantly, the portfolio risk-adjusted return is much better too.
    Read the following
    https://www.cambriainvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Where-the-Black-Swans-Hide-the-10-Best-Days-Myth.pdf
    Conclusions:
    1. The stock market historically has gone up about two-thirds of the time.
    2. All of the stock market return occurs when the market is already uptrending.
    3. The volatility is much higher when the market is declining.
    4. Most of the best and worst days occur when the market is already declining because markets are much riskier than models assuming normal distributions predict.
    5. The reason markets are more volatile when declining is because investors use a different part of their brain making money than when losing money.
  • Schwab Limit GTC-180 Now
    10-4 on above. Great to see you back.
  • Buy, Sell, Ponder? - July 2023
    Here’s a lesson in how not to invest. I’d played around with DraftKings stock (DKNG) for a couple years. “In and out” / “In and out” as it fell from $45 down to under $11. Fortunately, I managed to break even. Not without a lot of effort. Than in January I bought a pretty big slug of it for $11 which was near its all time low. I vowed to hang on. But when it got up to around $14 by month’s end the “chicken” in me took hold and I cashed out for the $3 per share gain. Today, the stock sits near $31. So I’d have nearly tripled my $$ by hanging on 6 more months. If you want to make $$, buy something you believe in that’s badly beaten up and hang on for the long term.
    PS - I don’t any longer post specific holdings or buys / sells. Thought the lesson worth sharing.
  • Schwab Limit GTC-180 Now
    +1 Welcome back Yogi. Please continue to mend. You are an invaluable resource.
  • Schwab Limit GTC-180 Now
    Schwab used to have rather short GTC-60. I was surprised to learn that the new limit orders at Schwab are GTC-180 now (since February 2023 from the link below), but existing/continuing ones may be GTC-60.
    I also checked Fido and it also has GTC-180.
    https://advisorservices.schwab.com/whats-new/trading-portfolio-management/trading-research-rebalancing
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund in registration
    It's not all that unusual for new funds to be closed from the start "subject to certain exceptions" (quoting the preliminary TRP prospectus). Often it is to restrict those funds to internal use.
    Vanguard was a little clearer when it launched its "Advice Select Funds" - closed to everyone except those working through a Vanguard advisor (robo or "real").
    Similarly, Fidelity has its Strategic Adviser® funds, where the prospectuses read: The fund is not available for sale to the general public. They too are open to investors working through Fidelity advisors ("enrolled in Fidelity Wealth Services"). Fidelity also has its Fidelity Series Funds, closed except to its funds of funds and collective management trusts.
    It will be interesting to see whether TRP makes this fund available to Summit Select (and higher) level investors, just as it has opened PRWCX and all its other closed funds to these investors.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund in registration
    Keep in mind that the TCIFX symbol, institutional share class, was indicated on the 2017 Summary Prospectus. Even Bloomberg indicates the symbol listing is pending.
    The 2023 Registration Statement for the fund indicates the symbols are to be determined (TBD).
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    HEQT might be worth a look for the nervous. Takes equities and adds put-spread collars to reduce volatility. Has done quite well so far this year -- lags SPY, of course, but still, not bad. Like to see how it performs in a really nasty bear market, though.

    Thanks for making me aware of HEQT. I am one of those "nervous" investors that has been well served by JHQAX in the past.
    While HEQT "has done quite well so far this year", JHQAX has achieved higher YTD and 1-year total returns but with higher volatility.
    Unfortunately, HEQTX has been in existence for only 1.7 years, whereas JHQAX has been around for 9.6 years. Difficult to make a judgement about a fund over such a short life span.
    I will add HEQTX to my watchlist to monitor its risk/reward performance over the next couple of years.
    Again, thanks for the tip, Richard.
    Fred
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund in registration
    TCIFX.... closed before inception??? or misprint? PRWCX has no income manager either so Giroux will do both equity & bond my guess.
    Why so long delayed inception since 2017??
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    In 2022 I was one who tried using BLNDX/REMIX, a fund that engages in L/S trading of stock indices, FI, currencies, and commodities. The managers’ monthly reports are quite detailed regarding how their positions fared over the previous 30 days and what new positions have been initiated. The fund measures itself against 50% MSCI World Index and 50% either the BAML 3-Month Index (bonds) or the SG Trend Index and touts itself as an all-weather vehicle. It has only a four-year history. Here are some numbers from the latest monthly missive.
    Year to Date 1-Year Since Inception
    BLNDX 4.88% 3.05% 12.68%
    REMIX 4.82% 2.86% 12.42%
    50% MSCI World Index & 50% BAML 3-Month Index 8.85% 11.38% 5.50%
    50% MSCI World Index & 50% SG Trend Index 7.78% 9.00% 11.12%
    Once all the dust had settled, my sense is that I would have done much better to go to cash other than try to buy an alternative fund to protect my portfolio. IOW, I did not make any money from my positions in REMIX. As someone else pointed out, one would need a sizable position established before the terrible downturn in stocks and bonds in order to have a positive effect. The position would have had to be big and it had to be early. That’s a tough order to fill. I have never tried shorting any asset, so I can’t report on that.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    JHQAX sounds good in theory. SPY suffered about 20% fall in Q4/2018 + lost over 30% in 03/2020 and over 20% in 2022....but SPY made almost twice as much as JHQAX.
    Chart (https://schrts.co/mEAddMPX)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC: I have hung on to FIW with no regrets. Of the « theme » ETFs I own or have owned, PAVE held up the best during 2022. The ones I sold don’t get mentioned.
    PAVE looks like a good one. I'm all booked up on infrastructure with GLIFX. I was able to upgrade to the I share for 45 bucks at Fidelity. The expense ratio is .97 vice 1.22. First dividend paid the fee. It doesn't shoot the lights out. And it has been going through a rough patch lately. But it helps me sleep at night.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted ratings update to MFO Premium using Lipper's 14 July data file.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    ”Stay away from it. If possible.”
    Yes. Stay away from timing. Agree.
    But stay away from considering relative valuations? No. Asset valuations fluctuate over time. To some extent, herd mentality plays a part. None of us has a crystal ball in that regard either. But part of being an investor - professional or retail - is trying to assess relative valuations, be it in large-cap stocks, small-cap, EM or developed global markets.
    There was, I think, a lot of “timing” going on in the retail sector in mid ‘22 - a mere 10 months ago. Many unloaded equities due to predictions of approaching recession. Here is an intriguing MFO thread from September, 2022. Pretty typical of the prevailing retail tenor of the day. Where was the buoyant optimism of today back than?
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/153670/#Comment_153670
    - One comment: ”I think you have to be worried that it will take five years for stocks to recover.”
    - Another: ”Gloomy now, just think how bad it would be if we were in a *recession*”
    - Another: ”Ty for the heads up. Not sure what to do now - wait w cash /buy more CDs hoping crisis will pass.”
    - And from the excerpted NYT passage: ”Mr. Tangen, of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, said that he did not think there was an investment area anywhere in the world likely to make money in the near future. ‘That’s the really depressing thing,’ he said.”
    The NYT article, which the distinguished @Old_Joe posted at the top of that thread, is dated Sept. 16, 2022. Below is a link to the closing averages for that day. Would you rather buy the S&P back than at 3873 or today at 4555? https://www.coastalwealthmanagement24.com/the-markets-as-of-market-close-friday-september-16-2022/
    Despite the air of pessimism running through the thread, a number of posters did see a buying opportunity. @LewisBraham, for one, suggested it might possibly be a good time to buy equities - and made exquisitely good sense as usual. @Junkster mentioned that HY might be a good buy.
    Deciding what to own / what to hedge (if anything) relates to assessing relative valuations. I claim no particular acumen in that regard. Just saying, timing aside (don’t do it), there is always the more critical question of relative valuations to consider.
  • quick reminder: please don't be a troll
    There is a "flag" option on each post. Not exactly sure what that does, but worth a try. I agree with @dtconroe. I can choose not to listen to 1 poster, but the bullying from the other should be stopped. He has done it to me and others.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    Something along the lines of “dear god. Make them wise. Just not yet”.
    Good line. And I realize it’s speaking about all us less sophisticated “retail” investors - not the sophisticated pros like the people at PIMCO.
    Need some definitions of “wise” here … Would that be throwing 100% into equities? Perhaps via an inexpensive index fund? Or maybe using an inexpensive a 60/40 balanced fund like DODBX would fit the definition. Or, just possibly, true wisdom would be to just hand it all over to T. Rowe’s wildly popular superstar (who, incidentally, has traded puts in the past) … Oh - I forgot - Not everyone can get in, though it doesn’t keep them from jumping through hoops in an effort to give Mr. G their money.
  • Yogi Bear Bull Is ill.
    @yogibearbull : Thanks for the update & glad to hear you're recovering. I guess the shots aren't 100 % , but probably cut down on the severity of the illness ?