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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    "We have some new okra sprouts coming up. Just planted marigold seeds."
    @Crash - oh how I envy. Two feet of snow, slush and ice here on top of frozen soil and heading 10 degrees below zero (F) for the next several days. On the plus side I do have plenty of good reds, firewood, and stacks of books available.
  • DOJ Files Antitrust Suit Against Google to Break up Its Ad Business
    https://npr.org/2023/01/24/1151055903/doj-files-second-antitrust-suit-against-google-seeks-to-break-up-its-ad-business
    The Justice Department and eight states on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against Google over its digital advertising business, claiming the tech giant illegally monopolizes the market for online ads.
    It is the second antitrust suit federal authorities have brought against the company's advertising empire, which has for years been under scrutiny over allegations of self-dealing and choking off competitors.
    "For 15 years, Google has pursued a course of anticompetitive conduct that has allowed it to halt the rise of rival technologies, manipulate auction mechanics, to insulate itself from competition, and force advertisers and publishers to use its tools," said Attorney General Merrick Garland at a press conference announcing the lawsuit.
  • Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    Curious if Lynn Bolin recommended any specific fund picks in his article for 2023.
    Ummm … In a roundabout way yes - there are recommendations. Tons of funds are listed, analyzed, compared. They are grouped into many different categories. He does identify several he owns. It’s a very lengthy article, so I’d be hesitant to just pluck a few of his choices out. Really needs to be read in totality. (I can say he thinks highly of mixed allocation funds for conservative retired investors.)
    I accessed article just 1 time using my DuckGo browser. But couldn’t get in again. A good approach would be to clear your computer or device’s cache and then attempt to access it. Only issue is you’ll later need to re-enter passwords for sites you frequently visit.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    I've been stepping into TAVFX, Third Ave Value fund and MOWNX, Moerus Worldwide funds...they own stocks of companies that deal in real assets...I'm thinking this is going to the wire meaning the debt limit and could get very wonky...US$ would go down bigly...do like the fund mgr comentary of TAVFX.."magical thinking the past 5 to 10 years, refers to SPACS, "private currency" dunno if he means shitcoins, trees growing to the sky US equities and transcending our physical world and reducing our dependcy of old economy activites like mining...I don't beleive any of those funds hold any Chinese company stocks as well which I consider a good thing, I don't care how they have doing lately etc. Also opened small position in SGGDX First Eagle Gold. To go along with strong bank, FDIC balance sheets CDs when my Tbills roll off. Still hold my PMEFX, PVCMX and HSAFX, Hussy which could hold up better than most during a debt limit crisis.
    As far as all the politico comments, I'll just say I have an opposite viewpoint of most of what was written in this thread and will refrain from adding my comments as to not offend anyone and keep the focus on investing.
    I also hope I am wrong but I can see the war in Ukraine spiraling out of control rapidly,,,my parents were in Europe during the War and the stories make me shiver....Mom saw folks chewing on the soles of their shoes and eating grass for nutrition....this has got to be de escelated. somehow someway, not pour more and more weapons in there.
    Good Luck to All,
    Baseball Fan
  • Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    can't get in. but thanks for playing, anyway. :)
    Thank you for the extra effort, hank. But no, it would not let me read it. Not past the header and bullet points. I'm glad to read from someone else on this thread the "closing thoughts" Lynn offered. THAT is helpful, indeed. @sven. @hank.
  • Jeremy "The Bear" Grantham
    https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/
    you may have to register to read it but always worthwhile.
    " Continued economic and financial problems are likely. I believe they could be dire"
    SP500 3200 end of 2023. Will probably dip further sometime this year.
    He believes the peak in 2021 was one of the classic bubbles in history like 1929 2000 and 2006 and most of the decline could be after the first rate cut.
    There is also a link to his recent interview about Climate Change
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/opinion/government-debt-deficit.html
    It’s true that U.S. debt is very large — $31 trillion .... But America is a big country, so almost every economic number is very large. A better way to think about debt is to ask whether interest payments are a major burden on the budget. In 2011 these payments were 1.47 percent of gross domestic product — half what they had been in the mid-1990s. In 2021 they were 1.51 percent. This number will rise as existing debt is rolled over at higher interest rates, but real net interest — interest payments adjusted for inflation — is likely to remain below 1 percent of G.D.P for the next decade.
  • Default Denialism is real
    @LarryB
    I looked at the gold funds and think for retirement accounts. pick the one with the lowest ER and decent liquidity.
    In taxable accounts Gold is taxed at long term capital gains rates of 28% as a collectible ( ST is income tax rate)
    However, if you use a Canadian fund like PHYS, you can fill out a form every year with your taxes and pay usual LT capital gains rate.
    Otherwise buy a mutual fund like SGGDX which seems to have done betted than the index of miners like GDX. NEM is also a possibility as it has a nice dividend.
    @LB
    I agree Political issues always affect investments. For example, massive changes in the tax laws, an obviously political issue, made huge changes in expected investment returns.
    We should be able to distinguish between political discussions with people of good faith presenting opposing but reasoned and fact based arguments or informed ( who of us really knows what is in McCarthy's head?) opinions based on their actual data or professional knowledge, and screes and ideology amplified by the internet with a hostile core.
    Unfortunately there is much more of the latter than the former. Many once respected voices of facts and reason are now just the scene of shouting matches. While the NYT is not much better (looking at you 1619 project), I remember how thoughtful and insightful the WSJ used to be. The articles are still generally useful, but no where near as detailed and insightful, but the opinion pages distort and cherry pick facts to rile up the faithful.
    This then pollutes everything associated with it. I am reading a pretty good book now about PGE and the California wildfires "California Burning" by K Blunt. My cousin whose house almost burned down in one of the fires refuses to read it as it is written by WSJ reporter. Everything is distorted through you own, mightily amplified political viewpoint.
    There seems to be very few places for moderates and independents to have a discussion without getting yelled at.
  • Default Denialism is real
    @Lewis B. Agree 100% That’s why the BH controllers allowing 299 responses to the default question is interesting.. The issue is more about politics than anything else and they have specifically let it run. Till they don’t.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added to FPBFX Fidelity Pacific Basin, most likely a trade as long as it continues to trend. Reasonable country diversification that can benefit from China re-opening, but not a pure China play.
    Japan 37.94%
    China 22.16%
    Taiwan 7.26%
    Korea (South) 6.88%
    Australia 5.97%
    Hong Kong 4.75%
    Singapore 4.58%
    India 2.93%
    Also added FNMIX Fidelity New Markets Income (emerging markets bond fund)
  • Default Denialism is real
    IMO, the US lawmakers, who grew up in the dollar-reserve-currency environment don't appreciate the global significance of a potential US default, technical or not. There are already serious global concerns on dollar-diplomacy/weaponization and this is really a bad time to mess with this debt-ceiling issue. The time for discussions is when federal appropriations are made, not when the bills come due.
    Gold (physical GLD, gold-miners GDX) has been outperforming since October lows. https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=GLD&compare=GDX,SPY&id=p72295455994
    Global reserve currencies have 100+ or so years of life (in the list below from Bitcoin enthusiasts, you can ignore the last projection), and the US can only hasten the change. https://twitter.com/BTC_for_Freedom/status/1616047232947560448
    "World reserve currency periods:
    - Portugal (1450–1530)
    - Spain (1530–1640)
    - Netherlands (1640–1720)
    - France (1720–1815)
    - Great Britain (1815–1920)
    - United States (1921-2030)
    - Bitcoin (2030-Forever)"
  • Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
    {Forewarned - this article is from Seeking Alpha and some may not be able to access it}
    Summary
    ° I expect the Federal Reserve to continue to increase rates at a slower pace until they reach about 5% and hold them there through 2023, creating opportunities for retirees.
    ° A recession is likely in the second half of 2023 and valuations are still high with respect to inflation and interest rates. Earnings growth is likely to decline.
    ° This article looks at how retirees may benefit from diversifying in bonds and staying diversified in conservative equity funds.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    of course the future is likely to be different with bonds, but schp too has been a weak investment for 2/1/0.5y (compared w stip, agg, fbnd, bsv)
    :)
    You've just given me some new stuff to research.
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    My OEF junk funds were up very slightly today, but my ETF was down a bit. TUHYX PRCPX. HYDB. Go figure.
    I agree with @Junkster: TUHYX is less than wonderful. But I'm married to TRP in the IRA and am limiting the amount I remove from the IRA each year. I play my cards right and I'm a no-tax due person on the 1040.
  • Invesco liquidates several ETFs
    TBLD is an unleveraged CEF cousin (at discount -12%) of global-allocation TIBIX.
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    Not a big proponent of tech analysis. However, several sources I follow have in the last week or so referenced this “breadth thrust” (bullish) indicator. If nothing else, word of it may have induced some investors to take more risk and might be reflected in those early 2023 numbers. That said, I suspect it would be very easy right now to get caught “flat-footed” / leaning the wrong way and get burned by a sharp market retrenchment. - ”You pays your money, and you takes your chances”
    ”For only the 25th time since World War II (an average of once every 3 1/2 years), the Dow Jones Industrials registered what technician Walter Deemer calls “breakaway momentum” (or “breadth thrust”). This often signals a new bull market (or a new intermediate upleg within a bull market).”
    Barry Ritholtz
    image