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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why inflation is losing its punch — and why things could get even better

    Following is a current report from NPR:
    Inflation has been bruising Americans for more than two years — and it's finally losing some of its punch.
    The Labor Department reported Wednesday that the consumer prices in June were up just 3% from a year ago — the smallest annual increase since March 2021. What's more, forecasters say inflation could fall further in the months to come.
    But two years of high inflation has left its scars, and people are adjusting their habits, potentially in permanent ways.

    image
    -                                 (Chart courtesy of The New York Times)
    Here are five things to know about the state of inflation today.
    Inflation has fallen sharply from its peak last year
    It was a totally different picture this time last year. Back then, inflation had topped 9%, fueled in part by record-high gasoline prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Since then, gasoline prices have tumbled more than 26%. And that's having a big impact on the day-to-day lives of many Americans, especially commuters like Kate Blacker from Jersey City, N.J., who travels about an hour each day to her job at a community college.
    "I'm a lot less worried now than I was six months ago, eight months ago, when the prices were rising so rapidly and I didn't know when that was going to cool down," says Blacker.
    Grocery prices also leveled off last month, in a welcome relief to consumers' budgets.
    And in another positive development in the midst of the summer, the price of airline tickets and hotel rooms fell in June, despite strong demand for travel.
    Inflation likely has further to fall
    Here's more good news: Even lower inflation rates are in the pipeline. Rent was a big driver of inflation in June, but people signing new apartment leases this summer are seeing smaller rent increases than they did a year ago.
    That takes time to show up in the government's inflation tally, but the writing is on the wall.
    Likewise, the wholesale price of used cars has been falling for several months, so those savings should continue to produce lower prices on dealers' lots.
    Omair Sharif, who heads the forecasting firm Inflation Insights, believes the next several months will be marked by mild cost-of-living increases, much like June was.
    "This is kind of the leading edge of the summer of disinflation," Sharif says.
    Companies may no longer be able to pad their profits
    Economist Lael Brainard says some companies added to their profit margins during the last two years of strong inflation — a trend that could soon be reversed.
    Brainard served as Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve board before moving to the White House in February to direct the National Economic Council. She points to what she calls a "price-price" spiral, when companies see their costs go up, then raise their own prices even more.
    "It will be important for corporations to continue to bring their markups down after having raised them to unusually elevated levels over the past two years," Brainard told the Economic Club of New York Wednesday.
    Brainard says those higher markups "should unwind if consumers are more price-sensitive and firms have to compete more intensely."
    Many people are becoming more careful shoppers
    Two years of high inflation has left a mark on the way people spend money, and some of those changes may be lasting.
    Blacker, for example, postponed a trip to Los Angeles this summer, hoping to find cheaper plane tickets in the fall. She also canceled her gym membership, and says she and her partner are more thoughtful now about their food purchases than they used to be.
    "We didn't really look so much at the grocery prices before," Blacker says. "It was more like, 'Oh, let's look up a recipe and just get whatever it is that we need.'"
    With restaurant prices still climbing, she's also eating out less often.
    "It's something we have to be much more conscious about, in terms our budgeting for that," Blacker says.
    The Federal Reserve is not ready to declare victory just yet
    The data showing easing inflation on Wednesday will likely be greeted as welcome news to the country's inflation fighters, but the battle is probably not over.
    The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively over the last 16 months in an effort to curb demand and bring prices under control.
    Although the central bank opted to hold rates steady at its last meeting in June, forecasters expect at least one additional, quarter-point rate hike when Fed policymakers meet in two weeks.
    If inflation continues to trend down, however, that may just be the last increase in this cycle.
  • Major Indexes Since 2022
    This rally keeps climbing the walls of worry. It would be interesting to see of the rally collapses before the walls-of-worry.
    So, here are the 5 major indexes since 2022 - you may note a start date in mid-2021 but that is only for the relevant data points to clear the StockCharts legends area on the upper-left.
    The original link that may default after a while to 1 yr, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$INDU&compare=$COMPQ,$SPX,$TRAN,IWM&id=p58525850702
    Screenshot link https://i.ibb.co/cJxNnZ2/Screenshot-2023-07-12-17-36-42.png
    and by the MFO Image tool magic:
    image
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
    But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can see that HY has a much higher volatility. You want to achieve higher performance with lower volatility.
    YTD Chart(https://schrts.co/CuXmBygK)
    To see the volatility use only two funds: BL=FAFRX vs HY=TUHYX. See (https://schrts.co/vsTRCtXv) For YTD from Peaks and troughs, FAFRX was down only 1.5%, but TUHYX lost over 5%
    I have been saying for several weeks that rate hikes are at the end. Another +0.25% isn't going to change much. Bank loans continue going up. FAFRX went up another 0.26% today with YTD=8.1%.
    The 2 biggest things I changed compared to a "normal" market are more trading + staying days-weeks in MM which pays around 5%. I'm also pretty sure that certain categories will do nicely in 2023.
  • INTERESTING WAY TO RUN A BUSINESS
    Back in the glory days when most cities had at least a couple of large and healthy newspapers, the San Francisco Chronicle was actually a fairly decent operation. Today, it's simply a pathetic shadow of itself.
    For many years the Chronicle had a number of good columnists: Herb Cain was probably the best known, but there were two or three others as well. A fellow named Art Hoppe was one of those, and always fun to read. His son, Nick Hoppe, is a successful businessman, not a columnist, but he certainly inherited his father's perspective on life in general. He writes an occasional "column" on the internet, and as a recent one is something of a commentary on business as we now know it, I thought that it was worthy of mention here on MFO.
    I'm so out of touch. I've been running a business for 45 years and it's actually been profitable. What an idiot.
    If I had any brains at all, I would have come up with an idea, raised billions of dollars from investors, and then proceeded to lose money every year, thereby increasing the value tenfold.
    More than 40% of the companies in the S&P 500 lost money in the past year. And these are just the public companies with shares sold on the stock exchange. Imagine how many private tech companies, most funded by venture capital firms, are losing money.
    It's mind-boggling how they operate. My daughter-in-law worked for one of those private startup tech companies. They found their niche in the CAP Table Management software market, which basically means they'll value your business and tell you who owns what percentage.
    Apparently, that's more complicated than it seems. The founders raised $1.2 billion in 2012 and it's now valued at $8.5 billion. They have over 1500 employees and have never been profitable, losing millions and millions every year for 13 years.
    They certainly don't seem to care. Like most tech companies, their employee benefits are off the charts. When my daughter-in-law had her first child not long ago, she was given a six-month paid maternity leave. That's par for the course when it comes to the tech industry, but what really blew me away was when she returned to work.
    "YOU GOT A 30% RAISE??!!" I remember squealing when she told me it took her by surprise. "YOU WEREN'T EVEN THERE!!"
    "Yep, I was shocked," she replied. "Very nice of them."
    Six months later, 15% of the employees got laid off in a cost-cutting move. Nothing made sense.
    But that's the way it goes in this new startup world. These aren't the businesses I grew up watching, nor are they the businesses I run now. We take excellent care of our employees, but we also like to remain profitable. There's a balance in there somewhere.
    The list of deadbeat companies is endless. Uber lost $7.2 billion in 2022, Lyft lost $1.6 billion, Peloton $1.2 billion, WeWork $1.7 billion, Rivian Automotive (Tesla imitator) $6.2 billion. But work at any of those companies and you'll probably get a raise during your maternity or paternity leave.
    Enjoy it, because you're likely to get laid off at some point. No company can endure these losses forever. Between January and May of this year, over 200,000 employees in the tech sector were laid off. Perhaps companies are realizing that the objective is to be profitable.
    They certainly understand that concept at Google and Facebook. Google laid off 12,000 employees in the last 12 months and Facebook laid off 21,000. Maybe that's why Google had net income of $60 billion in that period and Facebook had net income of $23 billion.
    Then there's DoorDash. The food delivery service based in San Francisco lost $468 million in 2021 and a whopping $1.3 billion in 2022. It doesn't take a genius to see it's going in the wrong direction. Someone must have noticed, because DoorDash laid off 1250 employees in November of 2022 in an effort to rein in costs.
    The only problem is that the severance package included paying the employees for 13 weeks after parting ways, along with a lump sum of one month's salary. I don't want to sound insensitive, but NO WONDER THEY'RE LOSING MONEY!
    To make matters worse, I was absent-mindedly scanning the job postings in Sunday's San Francisco Chronicle last weekend and up pops DoorDash. The ad said they were looking for "Engineers, including but not limited to: Software, DevOps, Backend, Data. Positions include: Junior, Senior & Management Positions. Telecommuting permitted."
    I wouldn't be too thrilled if I was one of the 1250 that were laid off. And it wouldn't help to see that the positions advertised would pay between $176,000 to $238,000. What is going on here?
    It's all so foreign to me. Investors keep pumping in the money, unconcerned that the losses keep piling up. They keep seeing that light at the end of the tunnel, maybe years or decades ahead. They note that Apple, Google and Facebook all lost money in their early years. But Apple became profitable in two years, Google three years, and Facebook five years. DoorDash has been around for over 10 years.
    In other words, if these companies keep running their business with no concern for costs, that light at the end of the tunnel, as they say, might very well be an oncoming freight train.
  • TSP G vs F
    @sma3, within the TSP, there isn't a m-mkt option, so G Fund has served that purpose admirably over time. It had nonzero rates when most m-mkt funds were hanging at 0.01% just to avoid breaking the buck, but now some m-mkts are paying better than the G Fund. So think of G Fund for keeping reserves to be deployed into F, C, S, I Funds.
    Are you using the brokerage window there to tap other funds?
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    So here's today's chart of interest, courtesy of The New York Times:
    image
    Looking pretty much the way that Krugman has been saying...
  • TSP G vs F
    I thought I heard the bells toll a few months back. Bought 3 T-notes, due ( 12/24 - 3/25 - 4/26 ) about 8.5% of portfolio. Paying 4.25%, 3.875%, & 3.75%.
    I didn't like the interest rate , but remembered it wasn't that long ago when I was happy to get 3% on 2 year CD. At this time I plan to alternate between short & long purchases as rollovers come in.
  • U.S. SEC reforming money market funds
    Article 2 is the "Explainer" for the proposal that has been around for months for comments.
    Article 1 is the news TODAY (also leaked yesterday) that the SEC has dropped swing-pricing due to intense objections from the fund industry including its trade association ICI.
    So, gates + redemption-fees will remain for now.
  • TSP G vs F
    TSP G Fund is a unique stable value (SV) fund that I track monthly here.
    TSP F fund is just the US total bond market (ETF AGG). "Total" is misleading because it's all investment-grade, so a true US TOTAL bond market is IUSB.
    Anyway, this is the classic debate now, with 1-2 Fed rate hikes pending. IMO, it may be time to gradually moving out on duration. Some are thinking that someone will ring a bell for the proper time, but it doesn't happen that way.
  • Grandson in a quandry
    The other question, which is more personal and Bobpa does not have to answer is does he need an emergency fund? While I worked hard to wean my kids off my checkbook, and they happily followed thru when they had jobs, in a true financial emergency involving several thousands of dollars, we would gladly help.
    It is important at young ages to adapt responsible budgeting, a savings plan and to be able to swing emergency car repairs for example, but a new roof might be beyond that funds capacity.
    I would agree with paying off student loan.
    Having received similar equity inheritances, I would also suggest keeping a little bit of at least one position as a sentimental reminder of someone else’s largesse.
    I have a few shares of Exxon that “were” originally my grandfathers in 1920s. They are only electrons but they are still a reminder of his life and career.
    Great idea about keeping the reminders. I have my Grandfather's tax forms from the beginning of the income tax. Much heavier than electrons, but interesting to contemplate from time to time.
    He could keep a 1000 bucks each, pay off the student loan, and still have some left over for the emergency fund/IRA/HSA account.
  • U.S. SEC reforming money market funds
    FYI only.
    Some redundancy in these Reuters articles. I'm away soon to appointments. Others here may be able to provide an opinion/overview as to impact to investors.
    Article 1
    Article 2
  • Grandson in a quandry
    The other question, which is more personal and Bobpa does not have to answer is does he need an emergency fund? While I worked hard to wean my kids off my checkbook, and they happily followed thru when they had jobs, in a true financial emergency involving several thousands of dollars, we would gladly help.
    It is important at young ages to adapt responsible budgeting, a savings plan and to be able to swing emergency car repairs for example, but a new roof might be beyond that funds capacity.
    I would agree with paying off student loan.
    Having received similar equity inheritances, I would also suggest keeping a little bit of at least one position as a sentimental reminder of someone else’s largesse.
    I have a few shares of Exxon that “were” originally my grandfathers in 1920s. They are only electrons but they are still a reminder of his life and career.
  • Grandson in a quandry
    Scary how often I agree with Lewis. Those are 3 very hot stocks. One cannot discount the success they have enjoyed. As with trees, ”The bigger they are …”
    Two different questions here: (1) the type of investments and (2) whether to pay off the loan.
    The investments: Depends on one’s risk tolerance, but sounds as if grandson has limited experience as an investor. My advice would be (1) go slow in the beginning and (2) diversify into some other sectors (mid-cap / value / international). Above all else, do some intensive reading. Howard Marks is my favorite. John Bogle I find tedious (but relevant). John Templeton’s both intelligent and inspiring with an interesting life story.
    The loan: While I’d pay it off for the logical reasons Lewis states, there may be a counterintuitive reason not to. That would be that staying invested might perk his appetite for investing and encourage him to read, study, diversify and contribute over time. Occasionally, psychology enters into such considerations.
    (Just 1 non-expert’s take on a fascinating question.)
  • Grandson in a quandry
    Is he already maxing out his IRA? How about health spending account?
    Does he currently have any emergency cushion at all? Our number 1 child just spent 623 bucks on a car repair. She had the money in the bank. If your grandson hates debt, he won't want to be tacking things onto a credit card.
    If he has a plan he's comfortable with, he is more likely to stick to it, and leave it alone. It's fiddling, and FOMO, that gets people in trouble.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Over the past 2 weeks I made several moves, all surrounding financials. As @Yogibearbull noted in a review of recent Barron's commentary, preferred shares may offer near term opportunities.
    Specifically, they indicated, "You can get a bit more yield than cash and still stay in high-quality securities if you look in some less obvious corners of the fixed-income markets. Preferred shares, often issued by large and highly rated banks, yield around 6%....Preferreds offer an interesting opportunity in an investment-grade asset with yields of more than 6%, .They are also relatively cheap due to the regional-bank crisis in March. “Rarely is there this big a discount to par for preferreds.”
    That view is shared by many firms, who admittedly have funds focused in that area. Cohen and Steers wrote:
    "4 Reasons to own preferred securities today"
    1. Current discounts to par value represent uncommon value
    2. High-quality preferreds offer some of the highest yields in fixed income
    3. Performance historically has been strong following market corrections
    4. An end of Fed rate hikes is a possible catalyst for price appreciation
    https://www.cohenandsteers.com/insights/4-reasons-to-own-preferred-securities-today/
    So....I added to PTD and established a new position in PTA. I also added to C (Citibank) and added a new position in USB (US Bank). All of these offer an attractive distribution and are selling at attractive prices. The banks may be a bit volatile this week due to earnings and possible revised capital requirements. However, the light CPI print released just this morning may suggest we are nearing the end of Fed tightening, helping all financials.
  • Portfolio X-Ray Alternatives
    I have depended on M* for many years, as part of my bond oef investing experience. I took full advantage of the analytical data associated with bond oefs. I have built a pretty effective "watchlist" system at M*, focusing on "bond category" listings. I have screened a large number of funds, and included about 10 funds in each category. For each fund in the category, I include TR performance over different periods of time, and include a number of risk data points. That has allowed me to visually see performance trends, and risk/reward parameters. It has served me well, but it appears that is about to end as M* devalues services to individual investors. I have not found a good alternative, so it appears my ability to "return" to bond oef investing will be much more challenging, with much less detailed information. I have not been investing in bond oefs since March of 2022, and I have to evaluate how I might do that in the future, without the historical M* support features, that have allowed me to make more informed decision making of the past.
  • Grandson in a quandry
    He may diversify by selling and buying QQQ or SPY.
    His student loans may have low rates, so he can keep them if he is handling payments. Car loan depends - if low 1-3%, he should keep them.
    He will have opportunities to save more for wedding, house, etc.
    Hating any debt is fine philosophy/sentiment when he will have more money. So, that he can do later.
    Finally, is the inherited money taxable or in Inherited IRAs?
  • Grandson in a quandry
    Not technically a fund question, but here goes. My grandson received an inheritance of three stocks, APPL, META, and NFLX, with a present value of $10,000, $4000, and $3000, with around $2000. capital gain since receiving. He is asking me if he should sell all and eliminate his balance on a school and car loan and move the now available dollars to a savings account in preparation for a future wedding or other emergency needs. He is making sufficient money that making the monthly payments on the loans is not burdensome, but he is averse to being in any kind of debt. Any suggestions? Are these three stocks, Buy Hold or Sell? His question is to sell them now something he will regret in the future.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    +1
    @Crash Thanks. Nice write up. Sounds like a plan!