CD Renewals @dryflower...so what is the alternative...buying a SPY -like index with the top holding of AAPL...with a PE of 33, YOY top line down -2.5%, Profit$ down a little more than that, cash on hand now under 2% of total capital unlike recently when it was 25%+...but damn the torpedos or for you youngsters out there YOLO...keep plowing your life savings into the casino?
Not sure what the class thinks about this comment...but...while we are all sailing in the same ocean, we all experience inflation differently in the water craft we are on....you could argue that your portfolio as a whole gets whacked by inflation but I would also state for example if my annual spend is $
150k before taxes annually and that inflation has gone up by +
10, +
15% (can we talk, be real, who really believes that bullshit that inflation was/is only 5,6,7% the past year) but that $
150k is only very tiny % of my overall portfolio, inflation doesn't really impact my lifestyle, spending habits....I can always cut back somewhere. But say if one puts 35-50% of their portfolio in the markets and it gets whacked which is not out of the realm of reasonable possiblities and you add the "real world" inflation...you could get in trouble quickly as a near or in retiree.
Rule #
1 is capital preservation. Live to fight another day. don't get greedy...nothing wrong with ther 5% annual return...so many co workers the past
15 years in their early 50's were saying....all I "need" is 5% a year....until then they kept grinding....
The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings So many obstacles now to converting empty office buildings including old zoning laws, and the fear of lost equity in nearby homes to be but a few. Interesting read, but will probably be behind a NYTimes paywall.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare“There is an aging office building on Water Street in Lower Manhattan where it would make all the sense in the world to create apartments. The 3
1-story building, once the headquarters of A.I.G., has windows all around and a shape suited to extra corner units. In a city with too little housing, it could hold 800 to 900 apartments. Right across the street, one office not so different from this one has already been turned into housing, and another is on the way.
But
175 Water Street has a hitch: Offices in the financial district are spared some zoning rules that make conversion hard — so long as they were built before
1977. And this one was built six years too late, in
1983.”
CD Renewals On one hand, I'm an enthusiastic proponent of CDs at 5%+. It's fun (for weirdos like us) to get that guaranteed money. No risk, no losses, no stress.
OTOH, being realistic, real returns even before, but especially after taxes are not going to be much over zero. I'm assuming inflation rates in the 3-4% range.
Yes, one is keeping up with, even "beating" inflation -- no small feat -- and doing this effortlessly and for free, but there's not going to be any compound growth, one isn't going to be making any money.
Accordingly, about 10% in CDs seems about right (no bonds).
Anybody Investing in bond funds? @Roy, you are getting great inputs from many posters here on your asset allocation. Target date fund’s glide path provides a good starting point for the major asset class allocations, and I use them as a reference point, just as
@Observant1 is doing. I am several years older than you are and am approaching retirement too.
Several years ago, I gradually reduced stock exposure gradually to a 50/25/25 (stock/bond/cash) allocation. This conservative allocation was helpful to navigate through the difficult year of 2022 when both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously. This year has been the quite the reversal as both stocks and bonds move up amidst of banking crisis. Now that the bulk of rate hike is behind us, I am more optimistic that bonds will have more meaningful gain this year with respect to yields (4-5%) and some capital appreciation on the bond prices. T bills, CDs and money market are yielding 5%. And that is good enough for me.
Anybody Investing in bond funds? At 63, my wife and I determined we had reached our “number,” and decided to reduce our equity allocation while both of us were still working. Since we were aware stocks could drop by 50%, we figured to reduce our possible equity loss by allocating 35% (potential 17.5% drop). Of course we missed out on some equity expansion these last 7 years (now 70 and retired 6 yrs) but we slept better.