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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    Portfolios can be rebalanced based on time intervals or asset threshold ranges.
    Frequent rebalancing may be counter-productive due to short-term market trends (momentum).
    Rebalancing annually or even biennually can be more productive.
    Investors often use a 5% or 10% deviation from their target stock/bond allocation as a trigger.
    The primary benefit of rebalancing is risk reduction but it may lead to higher returns when executed
    on an intra-asset level (e.g., US stock/foreign stock, large growth stock/small value stock).
    I was unable to access this article via the link because of a paywall.
    It was accessed via ProQuest which is made available through my local library system.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    Thanks Mark. Great article. I don’t doubt Hulbert’s overall premise. But you know what they say about ”In the long run …”.
    Gosh - depends on what all you’re invested in as well as age, risk profile, etc, Curiously, a very speculative stock (one of Cathie Wood’s holdings) I sunk a tiny amount in a week ago has bounced 10 15% in a week - up over 5% Tuesday alone. Should I sell all or part? LOL. Last year I might have sold, as I felt locking-in whatever small gain I could in every corner of the markets a necessary “survival” strategy. With a lot of the “free-fall” (hopefully) behind us, I’m not feeling nearly as eager to capture small gains now, Will let this one run a lot longer. But, then again, were it a larger portion of the portfolio I would dump it now - as a quick 10 15% gain is a 10 15% gain any way you cut it. (Again - age, risk tolerance, etc. affect this decision).
    (Edited post for accuracy)
    Sarah Ketterer, a frequent guest on Bloomberg WSW, recently suggested a tactic she calls ”tactical rebalancing”. By that she means capturing short-term (a few months) or intermediate-term gains in some parts of your portfolio. Probably amping-up and throttling-back certain holdings rather than all-in or all-out. I guess it’s the uncertain and highly volatile nature of today’s markets that led her to that conclusion. ie: “Trying to make the best of a bad situation.”
    But lots of good input from the contributors here, Great thoughtful article. And was easy to access,
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    WSJ Story: ”Liquor Brands Bet Thrifty Drinkers Will Keep Making At-Home Cocktails”
    ”Many Americans took to mixing cocktails at home during the pandemic, boosting liquor sales. Now, with inflation squeezing disposable incomes, big distillers are betting on another round of home drinking as consumers economize. Historically, around 80% of all U.S. alcoholic drinks sales were for home drinking, according to IWSR, a drinks market-research firm. That level rose to 90% during the pandemic, and sales at bars aren’t likely to return to pre-Covid levels for another four to five years, IWSR says. To capitalize, spirits brands are doubling down on efforts they started during the pandemic to meet drinkers where they are, launching new products and marketing campaigns catering to at-home drinking and putting greater emphasis on their e-commerce channels.”
    (From “Business and Finance” - WSJ - 1/9/2023)
    To each his own. But I’ll never understand ruining perfectly good whisky by dumping other stuff into it.
  • Southwest Airlines Meltdown Cancels 60% of Flights
    Story (Originally published in the WSJ) -
    The overseer of one of the largest public pension funds in the US is demanding an explanation from crisis-hit Southwest Airlines — New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli wants to know how the carrier plans to prevent another operational meltdown that caused the recent holiday travel chaos. "Clearly this crisis has resulted in profound customer dissatisfaction and is expected to generate significant costs to the company," DiNapoli told Southwest CEO Bob Jordan in a January 6 letter seen by Insider. The Wall Street Journal first reported the news on Monday.
    In the letter, DiNapoli also asked the carrier how it plans to "correct these failures - not just in the immediate term, but for the coming years."The New York state pension fund is one of the top-100 largest investors in Southwest. As of September 30, it held $17.6 million worth of Southwest stock, or about 0.1% of outstanding shares, according to Refinitiv data. The comptroller's office oversees the fund.

    Source of Above Excerpt & Story
    Major Holders of LUV - including mutual funds
    LUV Market Cap $21.5 Billion - Interesting that LUV Is held in some “Mid Cap” mutual funds. Generally, at over $10 Billion market cap, it would be considered a large cap stock.
  • Allen D. Steinkopf of Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund passed away
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418923000178/mairspowerpmsupplement11023.htm
    497 1 mairspowerpmsupplement11023.htm MAIRS & POWER 497E
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-62298; 811-10401
    Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund (the “Fund”)
    A series of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated January 10, 2023 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional information (“SAI”)
    dated April 20, 2022, as previously supplemented
    The Fund regrets to inform its shareholders that Allen D. Steinkopf has passed away at the age of 61, and therefore, no longer serves on the team of portfolio managers for the Fund.
    Andrew R. Adams, Christopher D. Strom, and Michael C. Marzolf will continue to be co-portfolio managers to the Fund.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus and SAI for future reference.
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    how whiskies are ‘made’, from the getgo, all of them
    and then more water
    This one already cut

    Good to know! Most interesting. Thanks. Do enjoy many of the 40% ones - both blended and single malt. Quite often buy couple different Tomatin single malts at 43%.
    From their website:
    "The Tomatin 12-Year-Old is classically smooth, having been matured in traditional Scotch Whisky, ex-Bourbon and ex-Spanish Sherry casks. Aromas of wild heather, pine and cedar soon sweeten to reveal notes of crème caramel with apples, pears and mango before a full-bodied and buttery finish, the 12-year-old is a distinguished sherry cask whisky with a little something different."
  • Stock Rover Pointers
    1/10/23. SR informed me of a fix for missing (special) dividends in Portfolio Tools/Future Income.
  • Climate Change and "decarbonization"
    Why would that matter? In any case, the point is that FossilFreeFunds does not "by definition" exclude any firm that is not exclusively in solar, wind, geothermal, etc. This looks like a straw man. Where did this come from? And why just US?
    So long as there are any utilities (or if you prefer, US utilities) that are not exclusively into renewables but are still acceptable to FossilFreeFunds, that'e enough to show that FossilFreeFunds does not have the zero tolerance policy you described.
    A 50% threshold is pretty far away from zero or even de minimis tolerance. Take, for example, Clearway Energy Inc. (CELN.A) According to its most recently posted 10-K (2021), 3/4 of its $12B in operating revenue is derived from renewables. Which means that 1/4 of revenue is still "dirty".
    Praising the worst of the worst for "transitioning"? How far? It's easy to put up good numbers by picking the low hanging fruit - substituting something merely less bad.
    what if the [100 dirtiest US] power plants simply reduced their emissions rate to the national average emissions rate of all power plants in the United States? That average rate currently sits at 454.7 kilograms per megawatt-hour, which would amount to a 46.46% reduction in total emissions.
    What if our “100 Dirtiest” all switched their entire production to natural gas instead of coal and oil products? The national average emissions rate for natural gas power plants is 401.25 kilograms per megawatt-hour, which would be a 52.75% drop in the total emissions released by these plants.
    https://findenergy.com/top-100-dirtiest-power-plants-in-the-united-states/#what-would-it-look-like-if-the-100-dirtiest-plants-made-a-change
    It's going to take more than a single graph showing bad actors behaving less badly to impress. Not that the changes aren't for the better, but what comes next? And when?
  • Sunbridge Capital Emerging Markets Fund (I class) to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000139834423000515/fp0081452-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0081452-1_497.htm
    Sunbridge Capital Emerging Markets Fund
    Institutional Class (Ticker Symbol: RIMIX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the "Trust")
    Supplement dated January 10, 2023 to the currently effective
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information ("SAI").
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Sunbridge Capital Emerging Markets Fund (the "Fund"). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately the Fund is closed to all new investment.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about February 10, 2023 (the "Liquidation Date"), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder's proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund's shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Sunbridge Capital Partners LLC, the Fund's advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-877-771-7721 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • 401(k) Rollover
    State protections for IRAs vary widely. WA is among the states with strong protections; my state IL too. But there are some states with poor protections (CA, ME, NE, WY). Do check your own state.
    https://www.thetaxadviser.com/content/dam/tta/issues/2014/jan/stateirachart.pdf
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    "In the single malt sleeve, picked up a bottle of “Craigellachie” Speyside on a lark while in Costco a month back. Before popping the cork last night I took a closer look at the label - 46% ABV (92 proof). Wow. Was surprised they made single malt in that strength. Haven’t consumed enough to evaluate yet - but first impression was positive - FWIW."
    ***********
    +1.
  • 401(k) Rollover
    Thank you all for the excellent information.
    I reside in Washington state which has strong creditor protections for "employee benefit plans."
    Here's a snippet from the corresponding state law:
    "The right of a person to a pension, annuity, or retirement allowance or disability allowance, or death benefits, or any optional benefit, or any other right accrued or accruing to any citizen of the state of Washington under any employee benefit plan, and any fund created by such a plan or arrangement, shall be exempt from execution, attachment, garnishment, or seizure by or under any legal process whatever."
    This law specifically states that employee benefit plans include: IRAs, Roth IRAs, HSAs, 403(b) accounts, etc.
    Link
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    The Case Against Frequent Rebalancing of Portfolios
    By Mark Hulbert at the WSJ
    Note: the story is supposedly not behind a paywall.
  • The PCE index, an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, slowed to 5.5% in November
    from
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/opinion/election-deniers-recession-inflation.html
    Over the year ending in November (the most recent data available), the Consumer Price Index rose 7.1 percent. But inflation ran at an annual rate of only 4.8 percent over the past six months, 3.6 percent over the past three months and 1.2 percent in November.
    True, inflation has been held down in part by events that probably won’t be repeated, like the plunge in gasoline prices over the second half of 2022. On the other hand, there’s good reason to believe that housing inflation — which accounts for about a third of the Consumer Price Index — has declined sharply, but that this decline isn’t yet reflected in official statistics.
    Add in the latest data on wages, which were seriously encouraging, and a reasonable estimate is that we’ve regained full employment with underlying inflation only a point or two above prepandemic levels. That’s not a perfect situation, and squeezing out the remaining inflation may (or may not!) be hard, but it’s hardly a picture of catastrophe.
    For what it’s worth, financial markets have basically declared the inflation threat over: They’re implicitly predicting roughly 2 percent inflation as far as the eye can see. They’re also willing to buy federal debt at interest rates that are up a bit but still low by historical standards, showing no hint of concerns about U.S. solvency.
    Still, Republicans are determined to see economic and fiscal disaster, ...
  • The Last Eight Years Were the Hottest on Record
    Because it will gradually matter more and more to the investment landscape no matter what the climate science deniers think:
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/01/10/world/eight-warmest-years-climate-copernicus-intl/index.html
    https://nytimes.com/interactive/2023/climate/earth-hottest-years.html
    It has for instance huge implications for the insurance industry, for the food industry, real estate, the military, textiles, globalization, shipping, tech waste and power consumption, and of course fossil fuels. There will be economic winners and losers here, and of course a number of species will go extinct. Some already have. Given the conversations we’ve been having about asset classes, a forward looking analyst of them will have to take the shifting climate into account, and how it might impact the expected performance of each asset class over the next fifty years instead of just taking how they did in the last fifty as gospel.
  • EVDAX - Camelot Event Driven Fund

    I do see that ETRADE has it LOAD WAIVED. The Institutional version is $1M Min. Any takers?
    Schwab sells EVDIX with a $2500 min and a $49.95 TF.
    https://www.schwab.com/research/mutual-funds/quotes/fees/evdix
    Alternatively, if Schwab accepts a transfer in of EVDAX shares, you can buy a few shares (with a load) elsewhere to bootstrap and then purchase additional shares at Schwab NL/NTF (OneSource®).
    https://www.schwab.com/research/mutual-funds/quotes/summary/evdax
  • 401(k) Rollover
    most of the protections carryover from 401k/403b to such Rollover T-IRAs
    Unless a debtor files for bankruptcy, rollovers receive no protection under the Bankruptcy Abuse Protection and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA). Seems self-evident.
    Outside of bankruptcy, federal protections don't carry over to IRAs, including rollover IRAs:
    protection is much different outside of bankruptcy. For example, what happens if you (or your dependents) get into a car accident or cause some other damage and have a large judgment against you? First off, the ERISA protection for assets in a qualified plan would still apply. That means any money in a company retirement plan would be safe from collection. However, unlike bankruptcy proceedings, that protection is lost once the monies are distributed out of the plan. This includes rollovers to IRAs.
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/creditor-protection-iras
    Rollover monies may still receive better protection than contributory funds in IRAs under state law, but that's not "carrying over" the 401k protection. For example:
    If you roll over funds from an ERISA account [in California] into an IRA, those funds remain 100% exempt [protected]. This is the case even though the IRA is not fully exempt in California.
    https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/are-my-retirement-accounts-protected-from-judgment-creditors-california.html
    There are no similar protections for [rollover] Roth IRAs
    My guess as to where this comes from is the fact that many states afford Roth IRAs less protection than T-IRAs. But this difference in the treatment between traditionals and Roths doesn't care where the money comes from - rollover or contribution.
    As far as the BAPCPA is concerned, a rollover is a rollover, whether traditional or Roth:
    Because of the unlimited exclusion for qualified retirement plan assets transferred into a rollover IRA, CPAs should always ensure that rolled-over retirement wealth is segregated in a rollover IRA that is distinct from other traditional or Roth IRAs that the debtor may own.
    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2006/jan/protectretirementassets.html
    See also: https://mgoprivatewealth.com/ideas-insights/now-you-know-the-only-difference-between-a-rollover-ira-and-a-contributory-ira-bankruptcy-limits/
    If you want a less wonky source, though I'm not fond of citing it, Investopedia says:
    For the purposes of BAPCPA, a rollover IRA is a traditional or Roth IRA account that was originally funded through a transfer from a qualified retirement plan.
    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/081915/my-ira-protected-bankruptcy.asp
  • 20 Funds for Investors to Consider in 2023
    Thanks @Obsevant1. Couldn’t help noting that 5 funds from TRP comprise close to a quarter of the list.
    I hope it’s OK to supplement this thread with a reference to @LewisBraham’s excellent article in the current issue of Barrons (”Investors Rediscover Stock Funds”). A nice broad-brush look at how different equity sectors fared last year. Can’t do it justice here. A few clips might entice folks to pull up the whole article / purchase / read Barron’s.
    Excerpts from Barron’s - “Investors Rediscover Stock Funds” - January 9, 2023
    - ”In this difficult environment, active management worked. Mutual funds in Morningstar's Large Blend category, which are mostly actively managed, were up 8.4% for the quarter and down 17% in 2022 …”
    - “A favorite sector for value investors—energy—continued to dominate, with the average energy mutual fund up 21% in the fourth quarter and 45% in 2022.”
    - “Perhaps the biggest surprise this past quarter was the tremendous rebound in foreign stock funds, in particular Morningstar's Europe Stock and Foreign Large Value mutual fund categories, both of which averaged 18% returns. Two value funds—Causeway International Value (CIVVX) and Oakmark International (OAKIX)—had strong runs of 23% each.”
    - “The Europe Stock mutual fund category has only 18 funds. Two of the largest—Vanguard European Stock Index (VEURX) and T. Rowe Price European Stock (PRESX)—were two of the best, up 21% each in the quarter. Still, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK), also up 21%, is an easier way to get exposure …..

    - Article details / discusses the impact of foreign exchange rates in driving returns on non-U.S. stocks. (If you haven’t noticed, the dollar has weakened in recent months, helping non-dollar domiciled assets.)
    - Lewis also notes, ”One trend that persisted all year was shareholder redemptions from Large-Growth mutual funds. T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) lost the most from outflows in the quarter's first two months, $2.7 billion, and $12 billion for the year through Nov. 30.”