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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fidelity Money Market Funds
    The following is one link where you see Fidelity MM and what they pay in real time
    (link).
  • Changes involving Stuart Rigby and Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
    My thinking is the more concentrated a fund is in a few stocks, the more managers need a forensic accountant to go over the financial documents of their companies with a fine tooth comb looking for fraud or problematic areas. But for funds with 100 or 200 stocks as many Grandeur funds are, it seems less necessary. There is less individual company risk in a 1% position than a 5% one.
    That said, Silicon Valley Bank wasn’t a case of fraud or hidden funny numbers like Enron or Worldcom. These were risks on the balance sheet in plain sight. Maybe managers just didn’t believe rates would rise as quickly as they did and instead thought that SVB would have time to adjust and reduce its rate exposure.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    One could say that equal-weight is the oldest "factor" around. It removes the large-cap bias of market-cap based ETFs.
    PV Runs are easy to link by using the "Link" click on the PV results title line. As these URLs are long, it is best to use them in MFO's Link-tool to post. Here it is since 10/2007, PV SPY RSP 10/2007-
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    @dryflower - I did a quick look back comparing RSP and SPY using PV with starting ranges of 2007-2010, followed by extending the end date through to 2020. (Since I’m using a free version I’m unable to link the charts).
    - From Oct 2007 through Mar 2009, SPY outpaces RSP.
    - But by July 2009, RSP regains the lead over SPY and holds it until
    - 2020 when SPY begins to dominate.
    So from my simple look-back, it appears that your thinking about an extreme bear market benefiting the equal weight index “bears out.” At least using RSP and SPY.
  • Changes involving Stuart Rigby and Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
    Think Grandeur Peak was careless with respect how they handle the risk on the stock and their fund levels. The worst part was they did not even apologize for this mistake. I found this data from their 2022 annual report. If you look up these two banks, Grandeur Peak was one their largest investor. My question for GP is how can they concentrate the risk by holding two similar banks. I invested with them awhile back and sold the entire position in mid 2021. They were just too volatile for my taste.
    Queen Road Small Cap fund I have did not hold the same kind of bank stock as Grandeur Peak funds did. The annual report even pointed out why a bank it invested in stands out differently from SVB. Clearly, the fund manager knows their financial holdings well.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    I worry about the future, too. Everybody does. But I’ll take this inflation over the hard landing Summers seems to want or mistakenly thinks we need any day of the week.
    +1
    Healthy modern economies experience some inflation. Deflation (falling prices) is usually a sign of a contracting and unhealthy economy. Prices fell during the great depression. Problem was … many people couldn’t buy hamburger even if it fell to half the previous price because they had no job. Farmers took to pouring unsold milk on the ground and destroying harvested crops while people in cities lacked for food. We invest for the purpose of meeting or staying ahead of inflation.
    Want exactly 0 inflation? Try balancing an irregular shaped chunk of ice on the rim of your cocktail glass. How you doing?
  • Beijing jabs in US-China tech fight with chip material export curbs
    Excerpt from the article:
    China's decision to restrict exports of two metals widely used in semiconductors and electric vehicles were racing to secure supplies on Tuesday as some industry suppliers worried that curbs on rare earth exports could follow.
    Monday's abrupt announcement of controls from Aug. 1 on exports of some gallium and germanium products has ramped up a trade war with the United States and could potentially cause more disruption to global supply chains.
    https://reuters.com/technology/us-firm-axt-applying-permits-after-china-restricts-chipmaking-exports-2023-07-04/
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    From a common sense perspective, if one's goal is to be agnostic about the fortunes of any one company, why would you want to invest a lot more money in to some but not into others?
    But also, it's axiomatic that you should let your winners run, and with an equal weight portfolio, you keep chopping them back.
    Over any given time period, one approach will be better than the other. In a horse race, you only have to wait 2 minutes to see whether you were right. In this race, you will have to wait 10 or 15 years.
    Academic papers, difficult to comprehend, have been written on this question, and I just do not know what the right answer is. (Of course, it's also true that the "right" academic answer may produce inferior returns.
    I do think that the equal weight approach, because of greater diversification, is likely to do better in extreme bear markets.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    Crises aren't advertised in advance. they come out of "nowhere". yawn.
    @operation_twist The headline is "The Next Crisis Will...," not "The Current Crisis Is..."

    +1.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @Baseball_Fan: let’s hope the new owner keeps the AR-15 quiet. Creepy story.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    Class.
    Just remember when many of us were in high school'ish in 1976 the population of the USA was ~ 220M, now "officially it is ~ 340M, and let's not BS ourselves with all the illegals etc it has to be more like ~380M. They have to live somewhere, no? I really don't see those CRE in the inner cities being built out...I think the real oppty is in the burbs with the big office parks...lot of land, not high rise but maybe easier to convert to housing? And this one if for you DMoran...I know a guy who just bought 40 acres in Alta WY, the other side of the Tetons, the quiet side....building a house next year, builder offering him a free AR15 as a deal sweetener....
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    After 25 years of retirement my allocation hasn’t changed much. Early on I looked to TRRIX, a 40/60 TRP fund for guidance. Currently own the fund and it’s one of several I watch to try and keep my feet firmly on the ground.
    No X-Ray. Simply broke apart my holdings to get a rough picture.
    Equity 46%
    Foreign / domestic bonds 20%
    Convertible bonds 10%
    Cash 10%
    Precious metals 7%*
    Foreign currencies 5%*
    S&P short position -2%
    Net long equity 44%
    * Some of the metals exposure is direct and some through PRPFX. The currencies are all through PRPFX. I own one long-short fund, making the total short position a bit higher than stated above and the net-long equity a bit lower.
    What the discussion pretty much misses is that not all equities are the same. Some are relatively low volatility, while some can be be quite explosive. Exposure to EM may count as part of your equities, but is more risky than most U.S. domestics. Guess that’s for another day.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    I firmly believe some of these office space can be repurposed to residential apartments, but this takes time that may take over 10 years or more. Right now there is too many empty offices and there is a slow indication of reversing the trend.
    In the meantime, there is still a shortage of affordable single family housing on the west coast. I am concerned for my kids.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Further, the investor would have less flexibility in selling off a CD (basically, all or nothing on a per-CD basis) as opposed to a bond fund where one can sell as little as 0.001 shares. In addition, the investor would take a big hit on the bid-ask spread that isn't present when selling bond fund shares.
    Brokered CDs are sold in $1,000 units, so sure, you can't sell of $79 worth, but you could sell $1,000 from a $100,000 CD. That should be enough flexibility for anyone.
    As for taking a loss, my broker tells me that in his experience, people are getting very close to face value and often a small profit. (The seller keeps all accrued interest). I don't have any direct experience with this and don't expect to be getting any.
  • CD Renewals
    @dryflower...so what is the alternative...buying a SPY -like index with the top holding of AAPL...with a PE of 33, YOY top line down -2.5%, Profit$ down a little more than that, cash on hand now under 2% of total capital unlike recently when it was 25%+...but damn the torpedos or for you youngsters out there YOLO...keep plowing your life savings into the casino?
    Not sure what the class thinks about this comment...but...while we are all sailing in the same ocean, we all experience inflation differently in the water craft we are on....you could argue that your portfolio as a whole gets whacked by inflation but I would also state for example if my annual spend is $150k before taxes annually and that inflation has gone up by +10, +15% (can we talk, be real, who really believes that bullshit that inflation was/is only 5,6,7% the past year) but that $150k is only very tiny % of my overall portfolio, inflation doesn't really impact my lifestyle, spending habits....I can always cut back somewhere. But say if one puts 35-50% of their portfolio in the markets and it gets whacked which is not out of the realm of reasonable possiblities and you add the "real world" inflation...you could get in trouble quickly as a near or in retiree.
    Rule #1 is capital preservation. Live to fight another day. don't get greedy...nothing wrong with ther 5% annual return...so many co workers the past 15 years in their early 50's were saying....all I "need" is 5% a year....until then they kept grinding....
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    So many obstacles now to converting empty office buildings including old zoning laws, and the fear of lost equity in nearby homes to be but a few. Interesting read, but will probably be behind a NYTimes paywall. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
    “There is an aging office building on Water Street in Lower Manhattan where it would make all the sense in the world to create apartments. The 31-story building, once the headquarters of A.I.G., has windows all around and a shape suited to extra corner units. In a city with too little housing, it could hold 800 to 900 apartments. Right across the street, one office not so different from this one has already been turned into housing, and another is on the way.
    But 175 Water Street has a hitch: Offices in the financial district are spared some zoning rules that make conversion hard — so long as they were built before 1977. And this one was built six years too late, in 1983.”
  • CD Renewals
    On one hand, I'm an enthusiastic proponent of CDs at 5%+. It's fun (for weirdos like us) to get that guaranteed money. No risk, no losses, no stress.
    OTOH, being realistic, real returns even before, but especially after taxes are not going to be much over zero. I'm assuming inflation rates in the 3-4% range.
    Yes, one is keeping up with, even "beating" inflation -- no small feat -- and doing this effortlessly and for free, but there's not going to be any compound growth, one isn't going to be making any money.
    Accordingly, about 10% in CDs seems about right (no bonds).
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, you are getting great inputs from many posters here on your asset allocation. Target date fund’s glide path provides a good starting point for the major asset class allocations, and I use them as a reference point, just as @Observant1 is doing. I am several years older than you are and am approaching retirement too.
    Several years ago, I gradually reduced stock exposure gradually to a 50/25/25 (stock/bond/cash) allocation. This conservative allocation was helpful to navigate through the difficult year of 2022 when both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously. This year has been the quite the reversal as both stocks and bonds move up amidst of banking crisis. Now that the bulk of rate hike is behind us, I am more optimistic that bonds will have more meaningful gain this year with respect to yields (4-5%) and some capital appreciation on the bond prices. T bills, CDs and money market are yielding 5%. And that is good enough for me.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    At 63, my wife and I determined we had reached our “number,” and decided to reduce our equity allocation while both of us were still working. Since we were aware stocks could drop by 50%, we figured to reduce our possible equity loss by allocating 35% (potential 17.5% drop). Of course we missed out on some equity expansion these last 7 years (now 70 and retired 6 yrs) but we slept better.