Anybody Investing in bond funds? Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
I had been shifting to more bonds and less equities between 2020-21. Then the spam hit the fan.
I know you love PRWCX. Me, too. In spite of myself, it has grown to 39 percent of my total right now. I try to follow the "rules of thumb," but not with much effort. Those "rules" don't apply to our house in many ways.
I'm at 50 US stocks.
8 foreign stocks
35 bonds.
...The rest is "other" or cash held by the funds. Oops, I do own a few single stocks, now.
I'm 69 later this month.
Everyone's situation is different. I'm investing primarily for my primary heirs: my son and my wife---his stepmother. He is all of 30, come October. She just turned 50. And she will go back to the Philippines when I'm gone. Much cheaper to live there. We already have a new house already built on the property where she grew up. It was necessary. The old one just fell down into decay.
One of my biggest priorities is to continue to grow the portion of the portfolio that is not tax-sheltered. Just to increase the amount that is easier for her to get at without all the blessed, lovely, amazing, beautiful, fart-brained tax rules. (I know that INHERITED IRAs are a horse of a different color.)
In the meantime, I'm not adding any stocks from foreign lands. I have seen the brokerage report to me that a chunk of the dividends "were taxed and held at the source." NHYDY. I don't want to be paying foreign governments, when my portfolio can make money HERE, and because of our specific circumstances, we've owed zero tax for many years, anyhow. I'll hold onto Norsk Hydro. It's been good to me, though the share price has lately dropped. Aluminum. They even mine their own bauxite. And green energy. And they're trying trying trying to buy a Polish recycling outfit. One of the largest aluminum concerns in the world.
Bond funds: yes. I bought junk at just the wrong time. With patience, I'm seeing it rise, now. The dividends are better than the safer stuff, so I'm riding it back up. My foray into ETFs has been less than satisfactory. I choose-----against my best interest, maybe---- to stay with TRP. Their trading platform and rules can suck spooge, I've found out. ("If you're not going to let me use the "Good Till Canceled" option, you maybe perhaps ought to LET ME KNOW!!!!!.... I.T. doink-brains.) .... With a $5k minimum to trade non-TRP funds, I'll stick with the best of TRP's mediocre bond lineup. So, when I sell my ETFs, that will go into PRSNX. What I already own bond-wise (in T-IRA) is TUHYX and PRCPX.
Break a leg! My junk is performing very well. But maybe you don't want to own junk. LOTS of places have better bond funds than TRP. I hope you find them. :)
Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy ”put a little cognac in the tank to relax its nerves”Great idea
@BenWP. I dumped a bottle of harsh tasting scotch down the drain one time. Maybe should have “fed” it to my car instead. Thanks for confirming the Accord is alive and well. Same here.
Yuppers - Labor’s sky high around here. $
100+ per hour for small engine mechanics is the norm.
PS - That’s
”small engines” -
not ”small mechanics”. :)
Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy I should have explained that it was my1993 Nissan 300ZX. Neither our Accord nor our Odyssey would stoop so low as to not start. The dealer, who has a seasoned Z mechanic, could not replicate the problem. The service manager drove it around for a while, pronounced it trouble-free and returned it to me no charge. He got to drive a 5-speed convertible and said he thoroughly enjoyed his day. I got to pay $150 for a 3-mile tow. Every now and then the starter fails to catch, but it functions if I put a little cognac in the tank to relax its nerves.
Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy No matter what the retirees who are the majority of posters here think, economic well being in the U.S. is not just about the inflation rate. Jobs matter too:
https://nytimes.com/2023/07/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-unemployment.html
Back in the 1970s, Arthur Okun, an economist who had been a policy adviser to Lyndon Johnson, suggested a quick-and-dirty way to assess the nation’s economic condition: the “misery index,” the sum of inflation and unemployment. It was and is a crude, easily criticized measure. The measurable economic harm from unemployment, for instance, is much higher than that from inflation. Yet the index has historically done a quite good job of predicting overall economic sentiment.
So it seems worth noting that the misery index — which soared along with inflation during 2021 and the first half of 2022 — has plunged over the past year. It is now all the way back to its level when President Biden took office.
This remarkable turnaround raises several questions. First, is it real? (Yes.) Second, will ordinary Americans notice? (They already have.) Third, will they give Biden credit? (That’s a lot less clear.)
The plunge in the misery index reflects both what didn’t happen and what did. What didn’t happen, despite a drumbeat of dire warnings in the news media, was a recession. The U.S. economy added four million jobs over the past year, and the unemployment rate has remained near a 50-year low.
What did happen was a rapid decline in inflation. But is this decline sustainable? You may have seen news reports pointing out that “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been “sticky,” suggesting that improvement on the inflation front will be only a temporary phenomenon.
But just about every economist paying attention to the data knows that the traditional measure of core inflation has gone rotten, because it’s being driven largely by the delayed effects of a surge in rents that ended in mid-2022. This surge, by the way, was probably caused by the rise in remote work triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic rather than by any Biden administration policy.
Alternative measures of core inflation that exclude shelter by and large show a clear pattern of disinflation; inflation is still running higher than it was before the pandemic, but it has come down a lot. If you really work at it, it’s still possible to be pessimistic about the inflation outlook, but it’s getting harder and harder. The good news about inflation, and about the economy as a whole, does look real.
But are people noticing this improvement? Traditional measures of economic sentiment have become problematic in recent years: Ask people how the economy is doing, and their response is strongly affected both by partisanship and, I believe, by the narratives conveyed by the news media. That is, what people say about the economy is, all too often, what they think they’re supposed to say.
But if you ask Americans more specific questions, such as whether now is a good time to find a quality job, they typically say yes. At the same time, their expectations about future inflation have declined substantially.
Anybody Investing in bond funds? Just one model based on age. Take with a grain of salt.
Age-based portfolio model /
https://www.schwab.com/retirement-portfolioA quick search of 5 or 6 other websites seems to pretty much find agreement with the model I linked. There are many other factors to consider of course. I linked this simply as just one example of what is out there. Personally, my 403B was
100% in global equities until about age 50 when I began sharply pulling back.
Anybody Investing in bond funds? @Roy, think you are doing the right thing by reduce equity risk as you approach retirement. Five years out is not far away. Shifting more to balanced/allocation funds is another way to increase bond allocation. My high yield and bank loan funds have done well this year; YTD is about 5%. Likely these funds will have a solid year by year end. The rest of short term high quality bond funds are moving along well yielding 5%.
Watching if the market will broaden out more to smaller caps and cyclicals. If the recession strikes this year, bonds will serve as a ballast when stocks will fall.
The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~
16-
17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past
1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.
Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
Anybody Investing in bond funds? 3 meanings of CDs
1. Music CDs - becoming extinct
2. Bank CDs - hot
3. Credit market CDS (credit default spreads) - also hot
etc
Changes involving Stuart Rigby and Grandeur Peak Global Advisors Grandeur Peak fund’s did not do so well in 2022. One of their fund, Global Stalwart, GGSOX, had two bank failures in their top 10 holdings: Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. So much for their management.
Anybody Investing in bond funds? On April
17th, I simulated the
@davidsherman contest with some mad money, by investing in both RSIVX and OSTIX. So far, they are neck ‘n neck.
Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
July MFO Has Been Posted Google and BRK (top two holdings) comprise 23% of GOODX per fact sheet. Those are among the few single stock investments I have in my portfolio for more than a decade.
I have held some mutual funds for decades but the one time I ventured into a fund with STR fees, I had a bad experience. It would be nice to know how much of the fund is owned by the manager but I understand the manager is not required to disclose this information. (I think the RCRIX discloses similar info.) GOODX SAI has the standard disclosure that the manager has >$1M.
Not sure I am allowed to have discussions in a pinned (Announcement) thread. I will stop.
Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy Apologies for not following the entire thread. Nice to see Larry Summers getting some well deserved attention.
My inflation gripe this summer:
$73.00 for a gallon of interior latex paint at local Ace. (Custom mixed to color)
And $8.00 for an empty 1 gallon paint can at Lowe’s.
July MFO Has Been Posted Short-term redemption fees are preferable over higher expense ratios.
GoodHaven is a concentrated fund (24 holdings, 65% in top 10) with low turnover.
Excessive redemptions can be very detrimental to this fund's strategy.
If an investor is unwilling to commit to a mutual fund for 60 days,
perhaps they will be better served with an ETF?
July MFO Has Been Posted July MFO covered GOODX. For those interested in exploring this fund, it has a 2% short term redemption fees <60 days and is a TF fund at the major brokerages I checked. While I understand why a fund would have a 2% lock up fees, I would rather they charge me a higher ER than a 2% lock up fees.
Over the past 3 years, the fund has gathered close to zero inflows while delivering 80% in cumulative total return. Given the fund's recent good performance, and if we were to believe that the bear market is over, the fund should not worry about short term redemptions and can gather a lot of AUM (currently below <$
125M) if they were to get rid of the lock up fees. Prior to the change in fund strategy three years ago, the fund had approx $70M in AUM, after steady outflows for years. I always thought short term redemption fees are a good substitute for closing a fund. Is that what the fund manager trying to accomplish?
May be
@David (David Snowball) could convey the above to the fund manager or invite them to read this post.
P.S.: I currently do not have a dedicated mid cap fund but would invest in GOODX if there was no STR fees.
CD Renewals @dtconroe...your question reminds me of a convo I had with my comptroller several years ago...he asked me "what are you going to do when your CDs roll off and the interest rates are lower". I answered I'll make a decision then with the facts and my interpretation of them as I see fit.
You've done well the past year without the ups/downs that the folks in the market have, likely a little better than SPY without the drawdown, not too shabby.
It all depends though...most dangerous times in the market are when overvalued, lot of debt floating around everywhere, and investing in the market is very risky several years right before/after you retire, especially if you do not have a govt pension.
FWIW, I've been 90%+ in laddered Tbills/CDs the past year(s), no regrets, so what if NVDA had a moonshot return the past several weeks, I tip my hat to the folks who invested there, I still earned several years of my annual spend/expenses with the interest from the Tbills....I still dabble with some funds (PVCMX, MRFOX & BLNDX lately) to satisfy my itch to "do something".
Me, what I am doing, going to buy 6 month,
1 yr and 2 yr Tbills/Notes when they auction over the next couple weeks. I'll step into the market with more "real" monies if we see a -
15, -20%+ schmeissing over the next several months.
Good Health and Good Luck to you, no matter what you decide to do,
Baseball Fan
Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy @davidmoran- Yes sir, there certainly is "lots of writing on why this is", and indeed I've read much of it, including Krugman on a regular basis.
That doesn't help at all at the grocery store or gas station.
FWIW I bought some batteries via Amazon the other day. Their price is up close to
100% over a year ago. I'm sure that there are reasons "on why this is", but I doubt that
those "reasons" show on any official inflation data.
I once worked with a fellow who had reduced social observation down to a pithy kernel:
"The world runs on bullshit".The longer that I live the more obvious that becomes.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Yeah, small-cap funds tend to be more volatile.
VTMSX is my only dedicated small-cap fund.
I ran Portfolio X-Ray for the period ending June 30 earlier today.
VTMSX constitutes 7.7% of my portfolio.
Old Ted mentioned that he'd not worry about the performance of a holding that constituted less than 5% of his stuff. I'd not give a small-cap fund any more than such minimal room along with my other stuff.
But I wish you well with it. I hope you don't need Vanguard's customer "service."
Thanks!
I've owned VTMSX for ~
10.75 years.
The fund's longer-term performance has been good when compared to
the small-blend category (
10 Yr. - top 8%;
15 Yr. - top
11%).
VTMSX returns have lagged S&P 500 returns during these periods since large caps were in favor.
I don't need to contact Vanguard customer service often but it's definitely not something I look forward to!
CD Renewals @dt. Taking a longer term view of our portfolio composition I can see a time when reducing the moving parts becomes job #
1. Managing a group of higher yielding income producers and then updating a group of CD’s and Treasury stuff may be interesting to me but to my DW not at all. I can see the future and it will be Vanguard Wellsley and a checking account. The circle of life.