@hank I agree with the benefits of diversification between these asset classes and their different performance characteristics. Rebalancing can also enforce a certain value discipline as you state. I disagree with the notion that equal weighting these asset classes will produce optimal results or necessarily even good results in the next fifty years simply because it has in the last fifty years.
These back-tested rules based systems lack nuance and a failure to acknowledge that the future is different from the past. Worse, I think the promoters of these rules-based systems can have ulterior motives. They may want to create investment products off them that a simple algorithm can run for 0.05% while charging 0.50% to ETF investors in a world that has devalued active management.
In many ways I think the asset allocation decision requires more nuance and is more important than individual security selection. An active manager who is thinking seriously about how long-term economic, geopolitical, environmental and market trends are shifting in 2023 can add value where the one who is only looking backward to 1973 through 2023 may not.
The problem I admit is most active managers are not adequately equipped to make that kind of macro forward-looking analysis of asset classes. And worse, some are also drawn to short- lived trends that help gather assets instead of produce good results. Crypto as an asset class comes to mind. So I can see how the AANA strategy has a certain appeal and, I think, a dangerous simplicity to it.

MikeM said “ (@hank, do you still own that one?)”
@MikeM - Yes, still own PRPFX. It’s 10.4% of portfolio, equally weighted along with NLSAX, CVSIX and TRRIX* - all relatively “sleep-easy” funds. (TRRIX’s dismal 2022 was, I suspect, an aberration.) Combined, they comprise the “alternatives” sleeve of the portfolio. There’s also one very large consumer staples stock in that grouping which helps offset the higher fees the 4 funds command.
* While not in itself an alternative fund, TRRIX holds some TRP funds which are ”alternatives” - notably TRDZX and PRAFX. Suspect others as well - short on time.
Note: The alternatives sleeve is supposed to represent conservative, stable, time-tested non-traditional investments in which I have an high degree of confidence. As such, it is rarely messed around with. I trust them enough as a whole to keep hands-off.
-
In the single malt sleeve, picked up a bottle of “Craigellachie” Speyside on a lark while in Costco a month back. Before popping the cork last night I took a closer look at the label - 46% ABV (92 proof). Wow. Was surprised they made single malt in that strength. Haven’t consumed enough to evaluate yet - but first impression was positive - FWIW.

There are some advantages to putting rollover money in a separate T-IRA (sometimes also called Rollover T-IRA). It can have money from various rollovers. As most of the protections carryover from 401k/403b to such Rollover T-IRAs, this is a clean way of doing things. If rollover money is mixed with contributory/personal money, different rules apply to different portions and the whole T-IRA may be frozen in case trouble arises.
There are no similar protections for Roth IRAs, so you can put after-tax and Roth 401k/403b money into existing Roth IRA.
As Secure 2.0 changed rules for RMDs from Roth 401k/403b (so, RMDs are no longer required), this isn't as urgent an issue as it was before (when Roth IRA didn't require RMDs, but Roth 401k/403b did).

@Anna,
5% for 15 months with beginning deposit of only $50 with additional deposits is not bad.
Just got a family member into it yesterday. Just want to make sure you stay on top of the maturity date so it doesn't rollover into something with a much lower rate when it matures.
I have PenFed also, but I check DepositAccounts.com to see the current deals. I tend to use military related credit unions or Texas based credit unions. Rates were a little better than than what the credit unions pay in my area.

I think using your existing ROTH IRA is the way to go because of the 5-year rule withdrawal. If you open a new account, you have to wait 5-years before penalty free withdrawal; your existing Roth IRA is likely older, and get you sooner to penalty free withdrawal (if you ever need a withdrawal).
Hope others will comment, but that's my understanding. In my Fidelity Roth 401(k), I like how Fidelity showed "First Roth Contribution Year" and "First year of withdrawal without penalty *" ------ "*" is for 59 1/2 penalty free withdrawal, so if you are over 59 1/2, then it doesn't really matter.

I was just at the local branch today. Not a word about it. Saw no notices, nothing. Jan. 9, '23, which is the opening day of the 13-month, 5% deal.

I am making few tweaks here in 2023:
1. Reduce cash to increase intermediate-term investment grade bond exposure.
2. Maintain decent exposure to energy and commodity futures and pay attention to China reopening and industrial output (they are #1 in oil consumption)
3. Increase developed market exposure and watch for US dollar index movement (for on-USD hedged funds)
4. Add more value, utilities, consumer staples and health care funds/ETFs as defensive positions in case of recession
5. Sell off treasury bills and CDs as they matures
6. Be patient with alternatives funds.
This defensive portfolio may likely to lag if the market move strongly upward. But it will survive if we have another drawdown as in 2022.

Most of my 401(k) contributions were pre-tax contributions.
However, I also made some after-tax Roth 401(k) contributions.
I'm considering taking a distribution for the total Roth 401(k) amount as a direct rollover.
I have an existing Roth IRA account that I'd like to utilize for this transaction.
Is using the existing Roth IRA account advisable or should a separate account
be opened/designated for the rollover?
Thank you.

I check DepositAccounts website routinely to see if any my credit unions are running any good short-term certificate deals:
https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/
NFCU seems to have some decent deals. Current deal from NFCU on DepositAccounts:
15-month Certificate Special, 5.00% APY, $50 min/$250k max deposit, limit one per member, additional deposits at any time, available through April 30, 2023.

Russel Kinnel (Morningstar) picks 20 funds meant as long-term investments.
Link

My taste buds are very blue collar, so I'll take a good beer over any of that hard stuff. Add a dozen Buffalo style wings with blue cheese on the side and I'm in heaven.
But back to the topic. No drastic changes for me. I'll sit at about 45-50% equity. I did start adding to my gold ETF, IAU and I've been giving a lot of thought to taking a position in PRPFX. Haven't owned it since 2010ish. (@hank, do you still own that one?)
Also started buying some of the best companies in the world, Microsoft, Amazon and Google. Not huge amounts. They may go lower in the short term, but they haven't been valued at this price in a bit.

We can have turmoil and crisis but if it will not last for months-years, the global financial system will collapse. If you can't trust MM in Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab we have a bigger problem. A real crisis would lead to big stock+bond decline, and shutting down trade. We had already
www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/money-market-reserve-fund-meltdown.asp
The most important, what should you do now? I don't see any good solution and the ones you think are good, may hurt you even more.
But, if you insist on being afraid, maybe you should buy gold and fill your basement, or maybe you can build an underground stand alone bunker and get all the power from the sun + fill the bunker with food and guns.
It makes me smile when investors worry about something with low chance of happening, AKA, shut down the global financial system...
But, have no problem holding to stocks and losing 20+% at the bottom, or when bonds lose over 10%...all happened in 2022.

Why are you not buying broker CD/Treasury? Fidelity treasuries pays 4.8% for 6 months (https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding) and you don't pay state tax.
Can I trade back and forth with CD/Treasury? it's inconvenienced.
Can I buy several hundreds thousands of I-bonds? I can't.
This is why I use MM and trade anytime I want.
Do I want to own ST vehicles after bonds had one of the worse years in decades in 2022? Absolutely not. I said already in Nov 2022 that bond funds have a good chance to make 10+% and many of them, several % more.
I basically see bond funds as more of a sure thing in 2023 than stocks + much lower volatility.

@sma3 And I could provide any number of charts like this one below explaining why there are government pension short falls and large amounts of debt because we are borrowing from the wealthy and thereby increasing our federal and state debt instead of taxing them to pay for government services. This one below is just for income tax, but you can see similar downward trends for estate taxes, corporate taxes and capital gains taxes. There was even one year, 2010, when there was no estate tax at all because of legislation passed previously in the Bush era. I believe the Yankees George Steinbrenner died that year and his heirs were pretty lucky--financially that is.
The size of the debt and who owns it also goes a long way in explaining why we will not default on Treasury bonds. Despite their grumbling about government workers, wealthy investors want us to keep borrowing from them instead of taxing them to pay for workers pensions and healthcare. And how is healthcare an "enormous perk?" Other nations provide it for all of their citizens whether they work for the government or not:

@LewisBraham
for future reference
https://www.usdebtclock.org/# ( has a separate clock for each state)
Also lists Medicare and Social security deficit, but I am unsure where those numbers come from.
While this is a bit off topic, the debt burden for state employee unfunded pensions and health care obligations are enormous and could make the debt ceiling fight look like a minor squabble, because it will pit "haves" vs "have-nots" and states cannot print their way out of it. Some "red states" are seriously affected.
https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2022/07/07/states-unfunded-pension-liabilities-persist-as-major-long-term-challenge
"After New Jersey (20.2% of personal income), unfunded pension obligations were highest in Illinois (19.4%), Hawaii (18.0%), Alaska (16.3%), and New Mexico (15.7%)."
Kentucky is 15.2 % South Carolina is 11%, Mississippi 14% . ( this does not include health care costs)
I completely agree that even successful CEOs ( and for that matter even non-profit hospital CEOs) pay etc is morally outrageous at thousands of times the average worker's salary.
However, I find it offensive when a state government ( CT is the state I know the most about) establishes a protected class of workers ( ie Unionized public sector employees) and endows them with wildly enormous benefits and perks ( out of proportion to their contribution to society) that are unavailable to private sector employees, and then requires private sector employees to pay for these benefits. Afraid to increase taxes to pay for it, the legislature then runs up enormous debt for future generations ( in CT's case about $70,000 per citizen in a state with a declining population).
Both political parties are equally guilty.
The same thing is true of the benefits that Legislators give themselves.

@crash
My fav is Lagavulin, but I will choke down McCallan if I have to.
Unfortunately, since Covid I have had to, as I can't find Lagavulin 16 anywhere

@Staycalm
Useful philosophical musings, but I have rarely seen concern for fairness in any policy making. There are many examples on both the right and the left. Lefties point to the tax structure etc but my favorite still has is the outrageous health insurance benefits (in CT work for the state for ten years, then quit and you still get lifetime health insurance!), retirement funds ( top 3 year average including overtime determines defined benefit) and high salaries a lot of state Government union workers continue to get, just for signing up ( and keeping) a job.
More to your point and what would happen in a default: I expect the reaction worldwide to an actual default would be so extreme that there would be little thought given to prioritizing in the days ahead who got paid with what was left.
After the Dow etc. drops 10000 to 15000 points overnight, ( and Gold goes to $5000 ) the debt ceiling will quickly be passed. Any legislator who votes against it will likely be run out of town.
@fred495
To take maximum advantage of the possibility, I would buy Treasuries and Gold, but be prepared to trade into stocks quickly. Other commodities necessary for survival will probably also skyrocket, although since most are priced in Dollars, hard to tell.
I don't think accumulating a month's worth of expenses in dollar bills is a bad idea either, or stocking up on canned goods and booze. I will certainly fill up my gas tank. ATMs and credit cards will probably not work very well.

Me, not worried at all, dip in various asset prices will be temporary at best.
Do you expect China & Japan selling their treasury bills cache? They hold more than 1 Trillion US$ worth of treasury bills each.
Saying - if you take a loan of say 100,000 US$- you are worried to pay but if you take loan of 1 Million, the banker is worried if it will get paid in time.

idiots in tx elected chip roy instad of wendy davis.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/let-fight-now-over-us-161106323.html