"it would be catastrophic to cause a government default, and no party wants to be responsible for not approving a budget to prevent that."
But it's not a question of a "party" approving a budget, is it? It's the reality of some twenty anti-government nihilists who want nothing more than to bring the government, as it now exists, completely to it's knees; and who have nothing but contempt for the mainstream Republican party.
That small group of anti-intellectual subversives could care less about the economy or anything else. That was clearly demonstrated on January 6, 2021, and hasn't changed one bit. Trump didn't invent these people, but he certainly used them to his own ends.

+1. I get Bloomberg TV LIVE on -air on my Roku-equipped television. No cable needed. When I watch WSW and Real Yield, I watch on my computer with the ad-blocker. I like that.

Thanks @yogibearbull for clearing it up. My limited perception came from looking at TAIL. Supposed to hedge against volatility. Didn’t help me any when I held it early in 2022. Just looked and it’s down 10-11% for past year. As LB noted for me way back, the bond holdings were what was hurting it. But interesting nonetheless with all the volatility now.

BTW, gold volatility GVZ has collapsed as physical gold and gold-miners have moved up quietly. Remember, when gold is near highs or lows, its volatility will jump sharply. It has been in the news that many global central banks have been accumulating gold for diversifying their reserves.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GVZ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69180341751

Some are looking for crash-level VIX of 45-80 before the bear market ends. IMO, VIX remains elevated; it was elevated throughout 2022.
VIX of 21.13 means daily SP500 volatility of +/- 1.11% most of the time and +/- 2.22% or +/- 3.33% some of the time (in the next 30 days).
For VXN (Nasdaq Comp) of 26.96, that means +/- 1.42% most of the time and +/- 2.82% or 4.26% some of the time.
That is plenty of volatility.
MOVE is more relevant for bonds and that is also elevated.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88970521030

I seems to me, although I haven’t looked at the 50 year chart that the major advantage this portfolio has is avoiding the two “lost decades”
“The key thing about AANA is that in 50 years it has never had a lost decade. Whether the 1970s or the 2000s, while Wall Street floundered, AANA has earned respectable returns.”
There have been two periods of almost ten years before the SP 500 returned to it’s previous high and stayed there. Not hard to beat that if you had any return at all, especially with roaring inflation in the 70s
I have seen several other “ simple portfolios” proposed. But if we used them, MFO would collapse!

Some comments on this from Randall Forsyth this week:
”In the narrow, parochial terms of the stock market, the precedent of the vicious fight over the debt ceiling in the summer of 2011 coincided with a 10%-plus drop in the S&P 500 index. The fight culminated with Standard & Poor's downgrading Uncle Sam's credit by a notch, from the top rating, AAA, to AA-plus. ‘The downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policy-making and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenge,’ the ratings firm said at the time ….
Ironically, the 2011 downgrade spurred a rally in Treasury prices and a drop in yields, in a typical flight-to-quality move by investors. Since then, extraordinary schemes to stave off default have been floated, such as having the Treasury mint a $1 trillion coin, which would be accepted at the Fed, and in turn pay off debt obligations.”
Excerpted from ”Up & Down Wall Street”, Barrons - January 9, 2023
Folks - I don’t have a firm opinion on this situation yet. Let’s see how things evolve. Have lived through these episodes before. Govt has always found a way to continue functioning. As a lot of the posturing relates to a wider political agenda I prefer to steer clear myself or address those OT. The OP was pretty specific in asking about investment related consequences.

Thanks for charts YBB and catch22
I have not had the patience to read the entire 55 page House resolution that apparently has to be passed Monday for the HR to open, but as I understand it, it is the source of the power and obstruction that the radical fringe GOP now controls.
I hope someone better versed in HR policies than I can chime in, but it would appear to me that since only one member can now call for the Speaker’s ouster, if 212 Democrats and 6 moderate Republicans collaborated in the crisis they could
kick out McCarthy
elect a moderate Republican who pledges to pass a budget and the debt ceiling, and other reasonable items including a redo of the rules with power to control the fringe ( who could not retaliate if the coalition held firm)
People say no Republican would dare collaborate, but there are 18 elected from districts Biden won, and there are certainly several with principles as we saw during the impeachment trial, so I do not think it is impossible if things get really dire.
Given the reaction of the GOP to Gaetz ( the walk out when he was speaking and the near physical altercation) I hope they are close and realize this may be the end of them as a party
I have a friend who used to be. a HR staff lawyer who I will reach out to.

Feeling “Whiplash” anyone?
James Stack notes in his January 9 update to subscribers that day to day volatility (S&P) over past 12 months is the 3rd highest in the last 60 years. It is exceeded only by 2008 and 2002.
Wow. I thought it was just me getting “jumpy”. :)
Can anyone explain why with all this volatility the VIX remains at relatively low readings?

Hi @yogibearbull
I was rechecking similar info, including the Wiki write which provides a decent review. We were on vacation in northern Michigan when the markets burped, and no access to online; when I read the news of the markets drop, and have this short period stuck in my brain cells. The GFC of 2008/2009 was still fresh in many investors minds and Europe had not yet had a well functioning plan for recovery.
I fiddled around with a chart of SPY, AGG and IEF for a quick look of a 1 year period.

Default is when bills are not paid when due.
Why it occurs doesn't matter - the lack of ability or will or willingness to pay. Technically, there is also a grace period of a few days or weeks, but in case of debt-ceiling crisis, the max damage may be after the initial trigger.
Also, the time for theatrics is when spending bills are approved, not when payments are due.
History of 2011 should be reviewed. Markets started to fall in July 2011 after months of impasse on debt-ceiling but there was a final drop-dead date in early/mid-August 2011. The House finally passed the bill on 8/1/11, the Senate on 8/2/11, but lot of damage to the markets (stocks, not bonds) had already occurred. Then, after the immediate crisis had passed over, the dimwitted S&P/McGraw-Hill downgraded the US sovereign debt on 8/5/11, creating another crisis. As the history shows, no other rating agency dared to follow the S&P, and McGraw Hill was severely punished (in the markets) by that fiasco - it doesn't exist in its then-form anymore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis#:~:text=July 29, 2011: The Budget,a vote of 218–210.
Chart for 2 months in 2011, 7/1/11-8/31/11.

Funny you should mention this.
I've fallen asleep several times during Larry's segments!
But not this week... ;)

probably making a bunch of people jealous with all the palms.

SCHP and TIP are twins for performance going back to January, 2013, including more recent time frames; 2 years,1 year, 6 months, 3 months and YTD. For LTPZ, one needs to monitor daily and it is best if one is a recent past or current champion in the bull riding section of World Rodeo. @Crash, have you looked at any of the BOND thread performance for various bond sectors?

16 January, 2023:
New offer: 15 month certificate, 5% YIELD, (not rate.)
I see nothing about direct deposit being required. You would need to qualify for membership.
Minimum $50, maximum is bumped up to $250,000.00.
Subject to the maximum, you can add to it as you go along.
**********
**********
"Easy Start." RATE (not yield) = 4.75%.
On $3k, that's a profit of approx. $142.50.
https://www.navyfederal.org/checking-savings/savings/savings-resources/certificate-rates.html#SV05
My bonds are paying me more than that every MONTH. Of course, I'm investing way more than $3k in those. But the Certificate is insured. It may appeal to some folks. Highest rate I've seen out of Navy since i opened my account there.

Maybe 50/50 HSGFX/BRK.B? Dunno

HSGFX +17.3% 1 YR
BRK.B +2.7% 1 YR
Combined: Performance

+10%
Nice going @BaseballFan
Now - Please advise on where to put our money in 2023 :)

Very good work Baseball Fan.
I’ll pick Lee Smith as hardest working guy in 80’s baseball. What’s your pick for hardest working fund manager in 2023?

@Charles or @LynnBolin2021 is it to much to ask what MutliSearch says about AANA for using 7 l ETFs: 14% each in SPDR S&P 500 SPY, iShares Russell 2000 IWM, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets VEA, , abrdn Physical Gold Shares SGOL, ,iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF GSG, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF, and the Vanguard Real Estate ETF VNQ? My MFO lapsed but I am intrigued by what MultiSearch comes up with. She's the best IMHO.

Interesting (arguably nuanced) further elaborations
9mos ago:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feeling-seasick-these-simple-low-cost-retirement-portfolios-are-holding-up-well-11652387274
https://kritik.com.my/russia-just-made-a-case-for-owning-gold-and-nobody-noticed/
a month later:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/do-you-have-the-right-investments-for-your-retirement-savings-this-idiot-proof-portfolio-might-help/ar-AAXeMtJ
LB, I posted the text because responders here had not actually read through the article (of course it's an article) or said it could not be accessed.

While I agree with the idea of diversification and disagree with posting articles’ texts in their entirety here, my main comment revolves around the hindsight is 20/20 and past performance is no guarantee of future results caveat. If anyone here could travel back to 1973, is this the asset allocation your younger self would have believed would work back then? OK, now how do you imagine the U.S. and the world will look like in 2073? Do you think history just repeats itself?
The advantage of this strategy though is it has different asset classes that work at different times in an economic cycle, inflationary and deflationary ones. But there’s no reason to believe that equal weighting these asset classes will produce optimal or even good results again in the next fifty years. It feels like too much reverse engineering/data mining with a flurry of new equal-weighted asset class ETFs in mind. These I expect will soon be launched with this backward looking data as their primary marketing tool. The ticker symbol could likely be AANA.
Figuring what has worked in the past and what will work in the future are two separate things. It is fair to ask if conditions today are similar to past ones and allocate accordingly, but I think nuance is necessary, asking what’s different today from the past and what remains the same.

"It consists simply of splitting your investment portfolio into 7 equal amounts, and investing one apiece in U.S. large-company stocks (the S&P 500 SPX, +2.28% ), U.S. small-company stocks (the Russell 2000 RUT, +2.26% ), developed international stocks (the Europe, Australasia and Far East or EAFE index), gold GC00, +0.04%, commodities, U.S. real-estate investment trusts or REITS, and 10 year Treasury bonds TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.562%."

Absolutely not taking any particular "side" here, but the way that I read the substance of the above is that by dividing a portfolio into seven specific groups of dissimilar securities, one can achieve a good return over a long period of time.
What specific vehicle is used (etfs, etc.) to represent each group may change over time- the main thrust of the article is to observe those seven groups, not any specific vehicles.
Added note- not having followed this thread previous to this post, I just took a look at the page generated by the original link... it certainly looks like a financial article, not an advertisement, to me.

I think 2023 will be very trying and full of ups and mostly downs, due to persistent inflation.
Consequently, I am not increasing equity exposure, except maybe to Deep Value funds like PVCMX where I can count on the manger not being fully invested.
There is a lot of talk about the "undoing of globalization" and "multiple wars"
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/high-inflation-long-term-problem-owing-to-real-and-metaphorical-wars-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-12?barrier=accesspaylog
( I know Roubini is a perma Bear and disaster maven, but worth listening to)
which coupled with high interest rates will continue to pressure the winners of the last decade, ie Large Cap Tech. At the same time it is likely that there will be continuing event driven increases in prices of commodities like foodstuffs and energy, as instability prevents them from being easily moved to consumers, regardless of demand.
An 11% allocation to Energy saved my bacon last year and we are basically flat for the year. I don't see any reason to dramatically decrease energy.
As an early retiree, I am much more content to miss a big upside, than to get caught in a dramatic continuing bear market, so my equity exposure is probably lower than most here, with over 60% of our portfolio in Treasuries, CDs and Munis and 5% Gold.
Working now to figure out best and easiest way to add TIPS. Will probably start with SCHP or TIP and buy some bonds at the next auction, along with my allocation of I Bonds.
If there is a big correction will DCA back into equities, mainly US.