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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion and Washington is ‘numb to our own dysfunction
    @larryB, what i meant is to allocate our investment more toward foreign stocks and bond. They are closer to 50/50 US vs foreign. For a long time US stocks have done well, but time has changed with this administration.
    While our family had the fortunate to travel extensively. Yet there are many place we have not explored. As far as moving to another country, we are not ready to make that move.
    https://www.imidaily.com/africa/botswana-sets-new-cbi-price-floor-at-75k-launches-early-2026/
  • U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion and Washington is ‘numb to our own dysfunction
    @larryB, what i meant is to allocate our investment more toward foreign stocks and bond. They are closer to 50/50 US vs foreign. For a long time US stocks have done well, but time has changed with this administration.
    While our family had the fortunate to travel extensively. Yet there are many place we have not explored. As far as moving to another country, we are not ready to make that move.
  • Government Stakes In Quantum-Computing Firms
    And a Commerce official already walked that rumor back.
    Frankly, at this point you can't trust anything the government says ... and they're turning the stock market into one giant pump-and-dump scheme with rumors of what FOTUS is/may consider taking a position in. Market manipulation and insider trading is totes fine in 2025 for anyone with an 8,9, or more-figure net worth, apparently!
  • Fourth Quarter Strategic Income Outlook from Osterweis (OSTIX)
    Since rates were cut in September junk hasn’t performed well. Many of the more popular names ala RSIIX, OSTIX, CBLDX, among others are negative over the past month. One of the better categories over that same time period has been MBS and related funds such as SEMMX, ANGLX, JSIVX, among others and an old favorite IOFIX.
    I also find it interesting that with all the talk about the collapse in the BDC and ABS markets that bond funds that are heavy there such ad HOBIX and SCFZX are performing well. HOBIX is a real enigma. Another fan favorite HOSIX keeps performing as advertised as does SEMIX. Still, emerging market debt has been and continues to be the place to be in Bondland for 2025. Whether munis continue their recent run remains to be seen.
  • U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion and Washington is ‘numb to our own dysfunction
    Budget committee warns that U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion.
    Rather, it’s the interest being paid to service it. As of September the U.S. spent $1.21 trillion to maintain the debt— 17% of the total federal spending in fiscal year 2025. That interest rate is also increasing over time. Just a couple of years ago, in 2021, the rate of repayment by the U.S. government was, on average, 1.61%. Now it’s 3.36%.
    According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will add $3.4 trillion to national debt by 2034. That number is the net of a decrease in spending of $1.1 trillion and a decrease in revenues of $4.5 trillion. The White House has repeatedly argued that the revenues expected to be generated by tariffs, estimated by the CBO at $3.3 trillion over the next decade, will effectively balance the books.
    https://msn.com/en-us/money/economy/u-s-national-debt-hits-38-trillion-and-washington-is-numb-to-our-own-dysfunction-budget-committee-warns/ar-AA1P2CuV
    The number should be alarming to treasury holders. Future market on gold and silver are moving up again on Thursday, October 23, 2025. What does that reveal ?
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Like Capital One commercial said “what is in your wallet?” Mine has been moving oversea.
  • Sentiment & Market Indicators, 10/22/25
    SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 10/22/25
    AAII Bull-Bear Spread -5.8% (below average)
    CNN Fear & Greed Index 26 (fear; near extreme fear)
    NYSE %Above 50-dMA 47.21% (negative)
    SP500 %Above 50-dMA 50.80% (positive, barely)
    These are contrarian indicators.
    INVESTOR CONCERNS: Budget (DC shutdown, 10/1/25- ), debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (190+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
    For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar up.
    CPI 10/24/25 (est +3.1%). Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations initiated by US are now OFF & more sanctions have been imposed on Russia; violators may face secondary sanctions. US trade talks with China & India are stop & go.
    #AAII #CNN #Sentiment
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2268/thread
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive
    About 5:30 and again about 6:00 a.m. in the East on Thursday: slow, sluggish again.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    @Mark, the Costco we visited did the switch to smaller chickens. In the past the chicken is very popular and often people get in line to get them. This time many of them just sat on the shelf, unsold. These small chickens are 60% of the previous size.
    Whole chicken costs over $5 by themselves and takes an hour to cook them in the oven. Costco first introduce rotisserie chicken years ago for $5 each and they have not changed the pricing. It is one of their popular items that they loss money but it brings in the customers.
    Food-wise everything are costing more, easily 10%.
  • Silver bullion flows
    Howdy OJ,
    The London bullion exchange was on the verge of defaulting. The central banking systems came to the rescue. The system is so rigged and the world has pulled the curtain aside and have decided they don't like what they see. The system is fighting back. It will delay the inevitable but that's all. The debasement trade isn't going away. Never has. Never will. When we went off the gold std internationally in '71, much of the rest of the world did too. Gov'ts promise and spend more than they have so this way they can debase the currency and keep the leaking tire inflated for longer. We're at $39T plus unfunded liabilities of well over $100T. Gov't takes in about $5T a year. Good luck. Now, the only constraint in the world has gone TrumpCrazy.
    Cover your asses folks,
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Debt Bubble???
    Howdy folks,
    Great discussion. I too am searching for safer assets. The debt issue is not going away. US official is $39T. Ah, but the Unfunded Liabilities are over $120T [Social Security, Medicare, caid, gov't pensions and various 'trusts'. ] Only two ways to deal with this - break promises or devalue the currency. I read one article where they estimated the dollar would have to be devalued by 75% over the next ten years. This is all part of the debasement problem worldwide. Where do we hide?
    Asset classes - hard assets, precious metals, crypto, real assets (house, farm, land, etc.), quality corporate paper, and as mentioned, utilities. I'm big on owning a piece of my various vendors. Currency and bonds? I'm guessing an int'l market basket. Follow the foreign central banks on their debasement strategies and trades. Oh, and it ain't the dollar, BTW.
    Just some ramblings,
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Debt Bubble???
    Per BBG this morning:
    "PrimaLend Capital Partners filed for bankruptcy after months of negotiations with creditors following missed interest payments on its debt.
    PrimaLend, which provides financing to auto dealerships that cater to subprime borrowers, listed estimated assets and liabilities below $500 million each, according to court documents it filed in the Northern District of Texas. "
    A few banks w/debt issues, and now a subprime lender.....sound familiar?
  • Any Permanent Portfolio heads here?
    Hi @JD_co Personal note: I found the exact shape of the items near the fire place at the Oval Office online at Home Depot, as noted below; from pics I viewed. I took pictures from the laptop screen and used Google Lens (smart phone) to provide an ID and link information. My best guess is that the WH has an open account at several stores to purchase the best foamboard or plastic decor, as needed. Gold spray paint in large volumes is not too pricey, versus AU in the real form.
    From an earlier report:
    Some gold-colored items in the Oval Office were purchased from stores like Home Depot, where plastic appliques were sold and then spray-painted gold, reports from September 2025 suggest. Other gold pieces, like custom carved items, were brought in from Mar-a-Lago, and historical items such as President Monroe's 1817 gilt service were also displayed.
    Purchases of modern gold items
    Home Depot: Internet users pointed out that some polyurethane wall moldings and appliques sold for around $58 at Home Depot closely resembled the gold trim and medallions in the Oval Office after being spray-painted gold.
    Alibaba: Similar items, described as "High-density Home Decoration Polyurethane Appliques Ornament PU Foam Veneer Accessories," were also found on online marketplaces like Alibaba.
    Custom-made items: The Wall Street Journal reported that cabinetmaker John Icart, who had worked on the Mar-a-Lago decor, was flown in to create custom gold flourishes for the office.
    Use of historical items
    President Monroe's gilt service: Gold urns on the mantle were from an 1817 set originally kept in the State Dining Room.
    Other gold items
    The World Cup trophy: A gold-plated replica was eventually replaced with the actual FIFA Club World Cup trophy, which was presented to Chelsea FC and then brought back to the Oval Office.
  • Schwab's MMkt SWVXX shows a 4% yield again today.
    Why don't government MM ETFs maintain a stable NAV?
    I can understand prime MM ETFs not maintaining a stable NAV. They can't preclude institutions from buying shares on the secondary market and prime MMFs that are open to institutions must have floating NAVs.
    But why are the government MM ETFs electing to have a floating NAV? The only guess I've got is that since the market price will fluctuate anyway, there's no particular benefit in their doing the work of complying with regulations permitting them to fix their NAV.
    From the Schwab SGVT prospectus:
    Although the fund intends to operate as a “government money market fund”, it will not seek to maintain a stable net asset value (“NAV”) per share nor will it use the amortized cost method of valuation. Instead, the fund will calculate its NAV per share based on the market value of its investments.
    https://dfinview.com/Schwab/TVT/808524581/SP?site=FundDocs
  • Schwab's MMkt SWVXX shows a 4% yield again today.
    From current Barron's:
    FUNDS. New money-market ETFs are growing: GMMF (20 bps, 04/2025), MMKT (20 bps, 09/2024, 1st), PMMF (20 bps, 04/2025, prime), SBIL (15 bps, 07/2025, biggest), SGVT (28 bps, 06/2025). Firms offering them also have their own money-market mutual funds. These ETFs follow the same investment guidelines as money-market mutual funds, but they can be traded intraday, and their NAVs fluctuate a bit around $1. Their ERs are comparable to ultra-ST bond funds, but lower than money-market funds. They may not be included in brokerages’ NTF group
  • Schwab's MMkt SWVXX shows a 4% yield again today.
    Schwab's MMF rates:
    https://www.schwab.com/money-market-funds
    Merrill's (third party) MMF rates:
    https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf
    Vanguard MMFs (usually the best rates and only a $3K min required)
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/money-markets#mm-rates
    Fidelity MMFs (see link)
    Fidelity presents 1 day yield as well as 7 day yield (based on last 7 days' returns), so you can get a sense of trend. For those watching daily changes, it shows both current and previous day rates. (Today's rates just came online around 6:45PM.)
    I don't find it worth chasing yield for a few basis points on cash. If yield is paramount and you don't want to chase yield, Vanguard is likely the best bet. Though if Vanguard isn't your brokerage (and Vanguard's given ample reasons to avoid it), then to draw cash you'll have the hassle of selling your preferred MMF and subsequently moving the cash. IMHO not worth the hassle and the lag.
    FWIW, FSIXX (avail through Merrill) 7 day yield held steady between yesterday and today at 3.94%, but its one day yield dropped today to 3.93%. In contrast, FIGXX (also avail at Merrill), (with a steady 4.03% 7 day yield) saw its one day yield rise from 3.98% to 4.01%. All of which signifies nothing.
  • Silver bullion flows
    Howdy folks,
    Interesting article from Reuters regarding the international flows of silver. Note how 83% of their stack is committed to ETFs. Be careful with paper bullion.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/tons-silver-us-china-ease-london-spot-market-squeeze-2025-10-20/?fbclid=IwdGRjcANkzJtjbGNrA2TK02V4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEe1H8k3ICvnXVSBmj6f6xL2hWK6N_8m67L90ZLRULCxwIsmvL1Qr5yhfb6Vp0_aem_G3hnYc7dQP8AZjl_a3cuPw
    And so it goes,
    Peace,
    Rono
  • At what tax rate do Muni bond funds become attractive?

    The common thinking is that those in higher tax rates would benefit from holding munis, of course.
    I'm in one of the higher brackets and only have a small position in a muni fund that my parents got for me back in the early '80s. Otherwise, I generally prefer the straight 15% tax on qualified dividends from common and preferred stocks .. less to think about, too.

    I’m thinking that the question regarding muni’s from the original post is not related to stock dividends which receive a discounted tax rate, but the yields from taxable alternatives such as bond funds, short term bonds, CDs, Treasuries.
    I use the following table…
    https://documents.nuveen.com/Documents/Nuveen/Default.aspx?uniqueId=05d78da4-0218-457f-ba81-65f473616bfa
    The munis I use routinely, NUV and VCRM have current distribution rates of 4.34% and 3.81% respectively, certainly sufficient to warrant a position in lieu of a taxable bond or MM.
    If you’d consider a CEF which uses leverage, I also use NAD, with a 7.21% distribution rates.
    Noted. Actually i was looking at that table after I read this thread, which gave me some food for thought as well.
  • At what tax rate do Muni bond funds become attractive?

    The common thinking is that those in higher tax rates would benefit from holding munis, of course.
    I'm in one of the higher brackets and only have a small position in a muni fund that my parents got for me back in the early '80s. Otherwise, I generally prefer the straight 15% tax on qualified dividends from common and preferred stocks .. less to think about, too.
    I’m thinking that the question regarding muni’s from the original post is not related to stock dividends which receive a discounted tax rate, but the yields from taxable alternatives such as bond funds, short term bonds, CDs, Treasuries.
    I use the following table…
    https://documents.nuveen.com/Documents/Nuveen/Default.aspx?uniqueId=05d78da4-0218-457f-ba81-65f473616bfa
    The munis I use routinely, NUV and VCRM have current distribution rates of 4.34% and 3.81% respectively, certainly sufficient to warrant a position in lieu of a taxable bond or MM.
    If you’d consider a CEF which uses leverage, I also use NAD, with a 7.21% distribution rates.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Saw this ad between innings of Toronto v Seattle baseball game.
    Ontario launches $75 million ad campaign using the words of Ronald Reagan to argue against tariffs.