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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    Lynch was great, but he did it when a lot of information wasn't available and most investors didn't have an easy access to all the tools we have in the last 20 years. See below BRK.A performance. It is very clear that the best performance was in the 70-90s and it's probably a similar reason. BRK.A performance in the last 20 years trails SPY(https://schrts.co/SvTMAdUw).
    And you forget that Giroux superior risk-adjusted performance while investing usually in 60-65% stocks makes his case stronger + AUM is much bigger.
    https://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_2729.htm
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    +1. Tarwheel.
    Just bought the tiniest of bites in SCHP.
  • Interest Income on US Treasury Obligations - Form 1099
    You're right about how the credit for accrued interest paid should be declared. My error. Typing too fast.
    It's your option whether to declare the imputed interest from market discount annually or upon sale/redemption.
    Instead of recognizing ordinary interest income on the disposition of a market discount bond, a taxpayer can make an election under Sec. 1278(b) to include market discount in income currently.
    https://www.thetaxadviser.com/issues/2007/oct/taxtreatmentofmarketdiscountbonds.html
    IRC 1278(b)
    Sample form (from TIAA) for notifying broker of election
    Baird has a nice seven-pager on tax treatment of market premium and market discount.
    Note that despite the ratable method being the default method for calculating accrued interest, the IRS presumes you are using the constant yield method unless you explicitly declare otherwise. The instructions for box 10 on the 1099-INT explain how this works.
    Form 1099-INT with instructions
    The constant yield method works to your advantage, as it represents compounding of interest. So interest accrues more slowly at first and then faster as it compounds. The ratable acccrual method is linear - the fraction of the time to maturity that you hold the bond is the fraction of the discount that you accrue as interest.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/21/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/21/23
    Bullish remained the top sentiment (42.9%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (27.8%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (28.4%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +15.1% (above average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (69+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds up, oil up sharply, gold down, dollar down. Powell remained hawkish in the House subcommittee (today, the Senate). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1079/thread
  • Interest Income on US Treasury Obligations - Form 1099
    Thanks, @msf. For purposes of completeness, a slight correction to your guidance.
    Your: "Declare the full amount on Sched B, line 1, and at the bottom of that line you subtract the accrued interest paid to the seller as a "Nominee Distribution"."
    I have to subtract the accrued interest paid to the seller as "Accrued Interest" and not as "Nominee Distribution."
    (If it were a Nominee Distribution, I will be required to issue a Form 1099-INT to the person I paid the accrued interest. I have no way of knowing the seller. The word Nominee has a legal connotation and I have not undertaken to be or function as a nominee for the seller.)
    Looking at the instructions to form 1099-INT, the brokerage (in this case) is required to report on a Form 1099-INT issued to the seller the amount of accrued interest received from me upon sale of their bond.
    (Not looking for a comment but just noting the reality - The issue discussed here is a trap for the unwary created by the reporting rules convenient for the IRS and the financial intermediaries, who always aspire to do the least amount of perceived work possible and the IRS on the other hand would rather have more income reported than require (fight) the financial intermediaries to report on the buyer's Form 1099-INT only the amount of interest beneficially received by the buyer (coupon received minus accrued interest paid to seller).
    Good thing I caught this before filing my tax return. I checked with some friends and family and they all filed without taking a deduction for the accrued interest paid over to the seller. Good for the IRS, some of them do not want to spend the time to file an amended return to get a refund.
    P.S.: 2022 is the first year I bought bonds in my taxable account. I have purchased bonds in the IRA going as far back as post GFC.
    Thank you.
  • QUAL and Berkshire Hathaway
    JQUA (a competitor to QUAL) has BRK at #6 highest weight at 1.89% - per M* portfolio page.
  • Fed Chairman Tells Congress He’s Been a Dead-Head For 50 Years
    Powell's primary message to Congress was to reiterate the largely unwelcome news that the Fed's interest-rate hikes would continue until inflation was fully subdued. The Fed has raised interest rates 10 times since March 2022 to 5% to 5.25% in its fight against inflation. It took a break in its rate hikes last week, but Powell said more are likely on the way even as the rate sits at a 16-year high.
    A photo of Powell at the Dead & Co. show has circulated in social media feeds with plenty of jocular observations about what this might mean for the economy and inflation. "That guy is the main reason tickets are $80 and up this tour," tweeted @SmokinBat. "You can’t just print money. We play for life!"

    Link to Story: https://themessenger.com/news/fed-chairman-tells-congress-hes-been-a-deadhead-for-50-years
    Link to Photo: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fxx4YIYXwAAOmf9?format=jpg&name=large
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    There was a good article about Peter Lynch on Yahoo Finance yesterday.
    "Lynch headed up one of the most lauded mutual fund successes in history. During his tenure, Fidelity’s Magellan fund racked up a 29.2% average annual return for those investors who held the shares throughout. In other words, if you invested $1,000 in Magellan on May 31, 1977, and held on until May 31, 1990, that small investment would have ballooned to around $28,000. It was the best-performing mutual fund in the world under his watch, climbing from around $18 million in assets to over $14 billion with over a million shareholders. 'One out of every 100 Americans was invested in Magellan at the time of my tenure,' he said."
    Link
    Amazing results and he had the good judgement to get out while on top (unlike Bill Miller).
    His books were pretty good too! ;-)
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    I sometimes wonder what would have happened if Peter Lynch didn't retire in 1990. Could he have kept it going, or would his magic touch disappeared? Over a 13 year period, he put up 29% annual returns. I don't think it would have lasted, even if Fidelity shut the doors on Magellan to prevent asset bloat. I just don't know what to make of Giroux. I keep watching for him to stumble, although I invest in PRWCX so I am not hoping for that to happen.
    You’ve got me wondering if he’ll “pull a Lynch” and get out at the top. No sign of that. Doesn’t seem like the type. I do suspect some of the faithful herd will become disenchanted when they realize TCAP is more volatile than PRWCX. it lost nearly twice as much yesterday, and lagged today by a bit. That divergence is fine in a strong bull market; but a bit unpleasant on the way down.
    Just thinking - Lynch had a keen wit, an engaging personality, a noticeable degree of humility coupled with an ever inquisitive mind and a strong desire to share his principals of investing with anyone who would listen. For all his success (not to be denied) Giroux is no Lynch..
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …

    Giroux is hot and T Rowe Price has put gates around him by keeping PRWCX closed to most investors.
    I find Giroux fascinating. He will have to underperform eventually for a while, right??? Yet I keep watching him crush it. I sometimes wonder what would have happened if Peter Lynch didn't retire in 1990. Could he have kept it going, or would his magic touch disappeared? Over a 13 year period, he put up 29% annual returns. I don't think it would have lasted, even if Fidelity shut the doors on Magellan to prevent asset bloat. I just don't know what to make of Giroux. I keep watching for him to stumble, although I invest in PRWCX so I am not hoping for that to happen.
  • M* Portfolio Will be Around Through 2023
    +1. Yogi. That must be what happened. I went to link to the Bill Baranyk comment. That's in the DISCUSSION forum. Separate from Portf. Manager--- which is where I always link to, since I have it bookmarked. i guess it makes too much sense to have a central login by which you can access whatever is there on the website. Geniuses at work, again. Anyhow, I pay for nothing over there. The advantages for me are X-Ray (vs. manually entered Instant X-Ray,) and I can read the full Analyst reports, for whatever they might be worth. TRP gives me FREE access. The charts and stats are helpful---- whenever I happen to find them up to date. It's certainly not worth paying for, the way things have become.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    It depends. Someone who mostly buys and holds and what most should do, has no issues. Trading markets since Covid started is harder. Risk/volatility is elevated, market changes have been faster. I changed too because of it. I trade more often, think weeks instead of months. I stay more in MM. But, volatility makes it easier to trade. Sideways is harder.
    Basically, I tell investors to stay within their skills. If trading worked for you which means, you look at your portfolio risk-adjusted performance over 3-5-10 years and it's better than the indexes, keep doing it. Otherwise, stop. Most should just use only 3-5 funds with a mix of indexes and managed funds and hardly do anything.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    @FD1000. Question for you sir
    Would you say it's harder now and going forward as the market dynamics have changed. Meaning markets are driven more by flow, folks putting money in every month via 401k, company share buy backs, small investors using options more, central bank intervention, less capital intensive companies out there, meaning software based etc....
    Best regards
    Baseball fan
  • Capital Groups ETF's CGUS and CGDV
    Regarding PARWX...
    Jerome Dodson managed PARWX from inception (04/29/2005) until he retired on 12/31/2020.
    Billy Hwan became a PARWX comanager on 05/01/2018 and the sole manager in 2021.
    Mr. Dodson took a contrarian approach which resulted in an elevated risk profile.
    Mr. Hwan takes a relative value approach and stated that he wanted to reduce the fund's beta vs. the S&P 500.
    Past PARWX performance may not be very indicative of future performance.
    Turnover is also a lot lower under Hwan than it often was under Dodson. I held it for a while in the early 2010's and got rid of it due to the high turnover. I probably should have held my nose. Whatever replaced PARWX in my portfolio probably didn't do as well.
    IIRC they didn't even market it as a value fund until they started thinking about the transition. It was just Dodson's project.
    I think Hwan gets some credit for the three year alpha of 4.53. Eight of the top ten holdings were bought under his watch, as were most of the top 25.
    OTOH, they are no longer fully independent since their partnership with AMG. And their funds after PARWX and PRBLX are run of the mill.
    Buying actively managed funds requires a lot more leg work, that's for sure. Given the OP's comments, he could also look at funds like DODGX and VEIRX as alternatives in the active space that would take him in different directions from growth.
    For etf's I would add SCHD and RWL if they haven't been mentioned before.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    [snip]
    The more you diversify, the chances are your portfolio will not beat the indexes and why Buffett said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
    [snip]

    Warren Buffett speaking to MBA students:
    "If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.
    I believe that 98 or 99 percent —maybe more than 99 percent—of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
    That leads them to an index fund with very low costs.
    All they’re going to do is own a part of America.
    They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile.
    I don’t quarrel with that at all. That is the way they should approach it."
    Why not use the full quote, which is exactly what you said " Buffett said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance". Other than that, Buffett recommended the SP500
    BTW, I held several funds in the past that beat the SP500. During 2000-2010, the SP500 lost money, I owned each of the following about 8-9 years SGIIX/SGENX,FAIRX,OAKBX, see (https://schrts.co/Cwpbphqk). I also owned PIMIX which beat the SP500 for several years too, see (https://schrts.co/eFdkpeJf)
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    I hope you're right, Observant1.
    I hold my TIPS in a fund, however. SCHP. Rock-bottom E.R.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    Performance is less stable than SD, so both Sharpe and Sortino Ratios are also less stable.
    True enough.
    Though here, PRWCX has had better risk adjusted return figures for all 10 decade-long periods (the duration used in the original article) from June 2004- May 2014 through June 2013 - May 2023 (the last decade-long span covered by Portfolio Visualizer).
    The relative superiority of PRWCX based on risk adjusted returns has been rock steady for ages.
    (Note: I used VFIAX instead of VOO to extend the comparisons all the way back to 2004.)
  • Capital Groups ETF's CGUS and CGDV
    Regarding PARWX...
    Jerome Dodson managed PARWX from inception (04/29/2005) until he retired on 12/31/2020.
    Billy Hwan became a PARWX comanager on 05/01/2018 and the sole manager in 2021.
    Mr. Dodson took a contrarian approach which resulted in an elevated risk profile.
    Mr. Hwan takes a relative value approach and stated that he wanted to reduce the fund's beta vs. the S&P 500.
    Past PARWX performance may not be very indicative of future performance.