How are you positioned going into 23'? Don't forget about major recessions, jobs loss, unstable banking systems due Feds potential over corrections, lots folks won't be able to pay for houses and cars along w job loss (triple whammy).... I think Ukraine Russian issues are priced in unless nuclear arsenals are used. Oil Xle would be worst asset to hold going forward next 12 18 months due to high rates. US dollars, Ust be very careful, it's too high now w high RSI ( except ust 10 yrs or 20yrs extremely cheap).
We are still young and don't know how to time market well. Could be stagnation for 12 24 months (look at high rates high inflation, high unemployment environments in 1990s downturns stagnation conditions for quite a long time).
We Keep buying stocks while cheap hope hold for 15 20 yrs til retirement hopeful 3x by then 2035. Been dca into growth, techs stocks, emergent markets, US Sp500, and 401k still at 90/10 distributions.
Unless near retirement would be in lots Corp Bonds ust cash cd and less riskier assets, maybe 40% stocks. Friend 70 yo has 70% stocks unclear why but that her monies. Mama retired portfolios 70s% fixed asset and safe vehicles, she loss about 17% last 12 months but made some back. Biggest holders: Fidelity 2015 tdf, fbnd, and lots Corp bonds
Happy holidays
How are you positioned going into 23'? Curious as to how folks are positioning their portfolios going into the New Year.
I remain cautious as always, top down as follows:
Tbill/Note/CD laddered out to 1 month thru 5 years (~80-85% of portfolio)
AMEX money market online savings
PMEFX
PVCMX
FORTX (Abraham Fortress Fund, Abraham Salem runs the fund...rain maker...now avail at Schwab)
SVARX (thinking that high yield bonds might do very well by end of year 23'?)
PCAFX (Prospector Capital Appreciation, experienced fund mgr's)
Thoughts: I believe inflation will be sticky, balance sheet tightening continues, Ukraine/Russia war continues, housing market muddles along, does not collapse, economy slows down but also muddles along, of course all that being said I have no idea and sure hope things get better! I'll leave my political thoughts off this post as prolly better that way, just to keep the focus on investing.
Best,
Baseball Fan
Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions It seems a misnomer to call any Treasury but ultrashort term T-bills risk-free as in the “risk-free rate.” If you don’t own a 10-year Treasury until maturity, you can have significant losses if you need to sell it before maturity. Locking up one’s money is a risk that creates other risks—liquidity, price, emergency fund depletion, missed opportunity risks. Is anything risk-free if you need to hold it? In the bond world, this risk is more straightforward than it appears in CDs or real estate, the latter being the ultimate long-term illiquid investment. It’s “duration risk.” Until T-bills yield 6.6%, there is no “risk-free” 6.6% return as the headline described.
Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show @AndyJ,
Thanks for the webcast info!
Felix Zulauf is a former long-time member of Barron's Roundtable.
IIRC, Mr. Zulauf was always bearish in the Roundtable sessions.
He states his predictions in the current issue of Barron's.
No surprise - he's rather pessimistic.
Link
Next yr bull???? If you are reinvesting the divs the lower yield doesn’t hurt as much. I left V because of the lack of service and can access non admiral shares of V mutual funds at Schwab,,,, where the service is shockingly good. As the Bogleheads say “ take your risks on the equity side.”
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1. Glad to hear back from you. Yes, that makes sense. :)
Next yr bull???? I agree
V bonddesks 1.2 hrs wait average
Schwab bond desks 2mins
Merrill trading agents so hard contact during trading hours but very easy after hour weekdays as well as Saturday think until 2 pm
Have both Vang has lots junk Corp individual bonds higher risks higher rewards