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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Yes sir @Catch22
    Only use 5% of portfolio tradings but quit past few months hurt pretty bad and massive downswings/ impossible time market, can only speculate and wrong more than 60% of time
    Passive portfolio keep buying sp500 Vang2045, and Corp Bonds, this is what I been doing last 12 yrs before trading and had annual ~9% returns until late 2021... Why fix when not broken. 2023 likely use same investment philosophy, think if get 5 7% annual returns I am happy
    Thx for suggestions kind regards
    This week's CPI Tues 13th
    7.3% Market consensus
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    @johnN
    The overview remains for me, as from 1978; that we invest in an ever dynamic market place that has more nuts and bolts today, than in the past, IMHO. Use the best tool box one can manage to understand to keep those nuts and bolts holding together whatever it is that one tinkers with.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Sorry my bad, corrections/ was thinking of data few wks ago regard rsi for Ust when 2 yrs yield was > 4.5% prices and did not look at this wk chart for Ust. Thank you sir Yogibeabull for the mistake corrected .
    The reverse maybe true now and $SPY may go down w macd crossover, unable to support 200d MA 50 and 50 days MA past wk, and rsi was higher than 50 60 past few wks. $UST and $UUP reached support levels may have momentum changes w low rsi and may have short upswings from here.
    Unless cpi inflation data weds extremely good on Dec 13th, spy may have good rally afterwards. Lots bear folks Shorting betting last leg downs spy ( - 7 - 10%) next few wks.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hello my name is R Berleth. I am a collections attorney in Houston Texas. Over a year ago A Texas Court appointed my firm as Receiver to collect a multimillion dollar Judgment against TBO and Its CEO. I have been after both since. I have a lot of time and research in this case that we both can benefit from. This is the first time I have gotten a strong lead on the company doing recent business. I think I can be a great help you and would like to set up a time to get as much info as possible. As a Receiver over both debtors had a broad range of power to collect. Some of these options I do not want to write in a public post as to give any possible notice to the Company or CEO of my strategy. Please email my associate Mr Perez if you would like set up a time to talk at [email protected] or call my office at 713-588-6900.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    @johnN, @catch22, StockCharts for $USTxy will show RSI(14). But it isn't useful in the TA sense of trading (overbought or oversold) as the rates are driven by the FOMC actions.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST6M&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p14004950173
  • Mid & Small
    M* dynamic definition of "small" often doesn't match the market-cap based static definitions used by most funds. M* categories include US "Small" (bottom 10% by market-cap) value, blend, growth; foreign "Small/Mid" (bottom 30%*) and global "Small/Mid" (% unspecified). Quote below is for the US Small Value.
    *BTW, US "Small" is bottom 10%, US "Mid" is middle 20%, so foreign "Small/Mid" as bottom 30% makes sense.
    Small Value
    Small-value portfolios invest in small U.S. companies with valuations and growth rates below other small-cap peers. Stocks in the bottom 10% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as small cap. Value is defined based on low valuations (low price ratios and high dividend yields) and slow growth (low growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow).
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    @johnN
    You wrote: Ust be very careful, it's too high now w high RSI ( except ust 10 yrs or 20yrs extremely cheap).
    What ticker symbol are you using to discover the RSI of UST's?
    Send the link, please.
    Thank you.
  • Mid & Small
    I think @Puddnhead asked about small-mid value funds. For OEF, BRSVX. For ETF, SMOT. The latter is brand new, a more mid than small portfolio of about 100 stocks meeting M*'s moat methodology. AVUV has an interesting approach to small value, resulting in an index-like huge portfolio.
  • Mid & Small
    Hi guys,
    Middle East funds or India that you like.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    Hello, Pudd.
    I've been tracking QAT, with the World Cup in mind, but development there is a long-term good bet, I think. So far, it's not fallen far enough for me to decide to begin a starter position. At the moment, it's just about at break-even for '22. For the 1-year time period, it's exactly FLAT. Of course, there are dividends.
    The RSI is at 33, pretty much oversold, at least technically. 12-month yield of 3.96%. Upside capture looks weak, actually: 59.
    There's no perfect world. But I am very much aware of the use of foreign workers under contract. Many countries do that. My wife worked Singapore and Taiwan on that basis, before I knew her. A cousin is under the same arrangement right now in Croatia. Those employees are virtually indentured servants. It's legalized slavery. But they take the job because in their fecal home country, prospects are even worse. Qatar's build-out for the World Cup includes a great many such workers. Another reason I've held back.
    Here's another: UAE.
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/uae/quote
    https://www.profitspi.com/stock/view.aspx?v=stock-chart&uv=100563&p=UAE
    This website shows QAT with a 7.7% yield. Stale? Or more up to date than Morningstar?
    https://www.stockrover.com/research/insight/analysts/quotes/QAT
    UAE:
    https://www.stockrover.com/research/insight/summary/quotes/UAE
    ******************
    EDIT:
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/12/four-people-charged-in-eu-parliament-corruption-investigation
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    I never liked to keep money parked and unused.
    Watching for pullbacks, dollar-cost-averaging into my single stocks via the brokerage. The FUNDS in the T-IRA will have to grow on their own. Makes no sense in my situation to add new money to T-IRA now. Rearranging that money is always an option, though.
    I'm going to cut back on financials PRISX after waiting probably too long for that one to produce. I bought too early. I'm considering a junk ETF. Also, AGEPX has been on my radar for a full year. Dividend-paying equities might be my best bet PRFDX.
    Before making any New Year moves, here I am:
    14 growth
    45 blend
    41 value
    70 stocks, only 9 percent foreign.
    25 bonds
    3 cash
    1 other
    Financials 34%
    Energy 12%
    Tech. 12%
    Healthcare 11%
    Sadly, the war in Ukraine will continue. Inflation will indeed be sticky. Where will the terminal rate be? My utterly ignorant guess is that it might be 6.5 to 7 percent. And then they will probably exceed that. WTF do I know???
    RE is less than 3% of my stuff. The plurality is in PSTL. Safe. But will it rise? i think it's suffering a knock-on effect along with the rest of the RE Market. Holding here, not adding to that one. Let the $$ I put in there PRODUCE!
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    "”economy slows down but also muddles along” - That’s as good a guess as any."
    I sat in SUV at Walmart for 45 minutes after dropping gal pal off to exchange 70" TV. Lesson learned, don't take open boxes.
    This happened Sat. 3:45 ish. LOTs of shoppers , parking lot about 75% or more full.
    Point taken , Christmas pushing economy at this time. After New Years salute, I'm thinking economy to slow way down ! Trucker says it's getting harder to find loads.
    As of this time I'm looking at some sales come Monday , with CD's & T Bills being bought.
    Going further out on maturities 12,18,24 months.
    FWIW, Derf
  • Mid & Small
    Hi sir been trading FXI since 2017in and out positions and sold most of it in June 2022 (buy high sell low lol). Have added back more last 4 5 wks. I Think it's like sp500 for China and maybe very good imho hold long terms. Ever since Xi decided to open more and restrict less covid its been uptrend, I think it may go up another 8-15% by next 12 months but lots speculation, definitely a long term hold for us. Friend say China and India Vietnam could be very good long terms
    We also have YINN 3x China bull etf but very agressive, we been selling weekly puts w $yinn just get premium and very volatile with high daily trades volumes.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    I'm currently allocated as per below
    - Alts: 55%
    - US Stocks: 13%
    - Intl Stocks: 3%
    - US Bonds: 24%
    - Cash: 5%
    In 2023, I expect to get cash closer to 10% and Alts closer to 50% Good luck to all
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    I’ll be sticking with the same allocation model I’ve used all this year. By design it allows for adding or reducing risk when it seems appropriate: 45% Alts / 20-25% Growth / 20-25% Income / 8-12% Speculative
    Am still overweighted on the growth part at 24.5%. Income (a mix of bond funds / cash) is on the low end at 20%. Earlier in the year I took income all the way down to 16-17% and growth up to around 27%. Did that to pick off some attractive prices when the DJI was flirting with 28,000.
    Don’t do CDs. Like what little cash I hold to be liquid so can play around with it. As far as the Alt segment goes, it’s quite stable (currently 4 funds). Rarely mess with it. The Spec allocation is quite diversified at present and serves as a bit of a hedge against big moves in equities. It includes among other things: a small hold on inverse SPDN to dampen volatility; a bit of GLTR; some CCOR - which is an intriguing fund. If it had a longer track record I’d hold a bigger chunk.
    -
    PS - As noted a few days ago in the “Buy / Sell” thread, I did unload 2 significant equity holdings recently and used the proceeds to fund CVSIX which became part of the Alt sleeve. Mixed reasons for that move. One of the equities had had a good run this year and didn’t want to press my luck. At the same time, income-bearing investments - like CVSIX holds - are now more attractive than they were 6 months to a year ago owing to much higher prevailing interest rates. Some of the resultant risk reduction relates to perceived distribution needs going into 2023. I realize it’s unorthodox, but the 2 equities sold had previously been included in my “Alt” sleeve. So the move didn’t significantly alter my model allocation.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Don't forget about major recessions, jobs loss, unstable banking systems due Feds potential over corrections, lots folks won't be able to pay for houses and cars along w job loss (triple whammy).... I think Ukraine Russian issues are priced in unless nuclear arsenals are used. Oil Xle would be worst asset to hold going forward next 12 18 months due to high rates. US dollars, Ust be very careful, it's too high now w high RSI ( except ust 10 yrs or 20yrs extremely cheap).
    We are still young and don't know how to time market well. Could be stagnation for 12 24 months (look at high rates high inflation, high unemployment environments in 1990s downturns stagnation conditions for quite a long time).
    We Keep buying stocks while cheap hope hold for 15 20 yrs til retirement hopeful 3x by then 2035. Been dca into growth, techs stocks, emergent markets, US Sp500, and 401k still at 90/10 distributions.
    Unless near retirement would be in lots Corp Bonds ust cash cd and less riskier assets, maybe 40% stocks. Friend 70 yo has 70% stocks unclear why but that her monies. Mama retired portfolios 70s% fixed asset and safe vehicles, she loss about 17% last 12 months but made some back. Biggest holders: Fidelity 2015 tdf, fbnd, and lots Corp bonds
    Happy holidays
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Curious as to how folks are positioning their portfolios going into the New Year.
    I remain cautious as always, top down as follows:
    Tbill/Note/CD laddered out to 1 month thru 5 years (~80-85% of portfolio)
    AMEX money market online savings
    PMEFX
    PVCMX
    FORTX (Abraham Fortress Fund, Abraham Salem runs the fund...rain maker...now avail at Schwab)
    SVARX (thinking that high yield bonds might do very well by end of year 23'?)
    PCAFX (Prospector Capital Appreciation, experienced fund mgr's)
    Thoughts: I believe inflation will be sticky, balance sheet tightening continues, Ukraine/Russia war continues, housing market muddles along, does not collapse, economy slows down but also muddles along, of course all that being said I have no idea and sure hope things get better! I'll leave my political thoughts off this post as prolly better that way, just to keep the focus on investing.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    It seems a misnomer to call any Treasury but ultrashort term T-bills risk-free as in the “risk-free rate.” If you don’t own a 10-year Treasury until maturity, you can have significant losses if you need to sell it before maturity. Locking up one’s money is a risk that creates other risks—liquidity, price, emergency fund depletion, missed opportunity risks. Is anything risk-free if you need to hold it? In the bond world, this risk is more straightforward than it appears in CDs or real estate, the latter being the ultimate long-term illiquid investment. It’s “duration risk.” Until T-bills yield 6.6%, there is no “risk-free” 6.6% return as the headline described.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    @AndyJ,
    Thanks for the webcast info!
    Felix Zulauf is a former long-time member of Barron's Roundtable.
    IIRC, Mr. Zulauf was always bearish in the Roundtable sessions.
    He states his predictions in the current issue of Barron's.
    No surprise - he's rather pessimistic.
    Link
  • Next yr bull????
    If you are reinvesting the divs the lower yield doesn’t hurt as much. I left V because of the lack of service and can access non admiral shares of V mutual funds at Schwab,,,, where the service is shockingly good. As the Bogleheads say “ take your risks on the equity side.”
    +1. Glad to hear back from you. Yes, that makes sense. :)
  • Next yr bull????
    I agree
    V bonddesks 1.2 hrs wait average
    Schwab bond desks 2mins
    Merrill trading agents so hard contact during trading hours but very easy after hour weekdays as well as Saturday think until 2 pm
    Have both Vang has lots junk Corp individual bonds higher risks higher rewards