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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    BTW, the earliest reference to interval-funds at MFO that I could find was in 2013 by @David_Snowball who was reporting on M* Investment Conference about this new thing called IFs.
    In looking over some old MFO posts, I also saw some mixed-up usage of terminology related to NT-REITs, NT-BDCs and IFs. Well, luckily, they are all very similar but still distinct.
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    I agree - Rida tends to cheerlead them quite a bit, even when they're directly impacted by interest rates. The user comments, like usual, are helpful though.
    But fwiw saying I'm planning a few preferred buys this month to use as income ballast. I prefer the 15% tax on QDI versus buying bonds that'll be taxed at my much higher bracket. But I may -- may -- dip my toes into agencies in Jan/Feb, depending on what their YTM/YTW look like.
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    I have always been a bit suspicious of Rida Morwa's many many posts on Seeking Alpha.
    They all seem to promise unlimited income with no or little risk. The articles are well written and seemingly wise and appear to offer great investment opportunities. But why are there so many many recommendations?
    The recent article is pushing HT ( Hersha Hospitality Trust) preferreds. HT owns a lot of "high end" hotels nationwide ( Marriot?). The common dropped 75% during Covid and the dividend ($1.12 a year) disappeared until last month when it started paying $.20 a year.
    The Preferreds crashed also. HTpD was down 75% and the dividend of $0.406 a quarter was eliminated for all of 2020. As it was cumulative, they did payback dividends in 3/2021 of $1.625 after Pandemic eased.
    A quick Google search turns up a fair amount of concern about Rida Morwa's investment service ($550 a year) performance. I cannot find any information the service itself posts about past preformance on the website.
    TipRanks says only 52% of his recs have been profitable one year later with an average return of 4.3%.
    https://www.tipranks.com/experts/bloggers/rida-morwa
    Interesting blog on income investing has worse accusations
    https://innovativeincomeinvestor.com/new-discussion-areas/
    "HDO is short for High Dividend Opportunities which is a paid service on Seeking Alpha. The head guy is Rida Morwa, but he is assisted by several other authors, often times Pendragon or Preferred Stock Trader.
    On this board, III, they might be referred to as HDO, Rida or Pendy.
    There are at least four issues that some III’ers have with HDO.
    1) They typically pick the highest yielding preferred/baby bond to recommend to investors, because it is enticing. They often times understate the risk. Several of their recommendation have literally gone bankrupt. Others have suffered catastrophic losses but have not gone bankrupt (yet.)
    2) They ignore their past history of recommendations. They might recommend an issue when it is selling for say $20. Then it drops to $10 and they write a NEW post recommending it again, WITHOUT mentioning they recommended it earlier. Obviously anybody that bought it on the first recommendation is suffering.
    3) When someone posts any critical comments they typically get deleted on short order. We do NOT know if it is a HDO person or a SA person, but “responsible opposing comments” are NOT welcome.
    4) There is a suspicion that is NOT provable by us, that they are taking advantage of very illiquid preferreds to reward “insiders”. The mechanism would be something like:
    a) Have “insiders” buy positions in XYZ
    b) Publish a recommendation to HDO paid subscribers on XYZ, which pushes the price up
    c) Release the recommendation to the free SA readers on XYZ which further pushes the price up
    d) Creates a potential opportunity for insiders and/or paid subscribers to make a quick profit, mostly based on HDO’s ability to move the price up.
    In the last two days, a few of HDO’s picks have done very poorly. Yesterday it was HMLP-A which closed down 21%. Today it was ALIN-A,B, E which all closed down ~ 62%. HDO had written SA posts recommending all four of these. The posts are NOT recent, but at the same time they did NOT post any sell recommendations, so there is an assumption they were still valid HDO recommendations."
    For Preferreds CEFS etc look at Forbes/Fridson Income Investing Newsletter ($200 a year). Marty Fridson is quoted in Barron's regularly
    https://isinewsletter.com/profile-current-newsletter/
    Four portfolios of preferreds, CEFs , lots of ideas and recommendations on individual issues. His portfolios of preferreds etc were down between 12 and 24% in 2020.
    For income investing in individual stocks, I have found Simply Safe Dividends very useful
    https://www.simplysafedividends.com/
    He publishes three portfolios, with monthly return and risk stats, compares them to to SCHD, and SPHD and VIG and trades very little (now unfortunately price is up to $550 a year but there is a two week free trial).
    Kiplinger's Investing for Income is much cheaper ($79 a year) and has pretty good ideas ( a little more volatile than SSD so much diversification necessary here) for mutual funds, ETFs, CEFs and stocks.
    In my opinion, all three are much better choices than anything I have seen on Seeking Alpha
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561795-protect-your-income-with-preferred-stocks?source=Messenger
    ****Your retirement should not depend on the emotions of the markets.
    Preferred securities provide additional reliability to your income.
    Two discounted preferreds with up to 8.3% qualified dividends****
    AEL.PB, HT
    Could be two vehicles to add for long term preferred good stock list
    Some good discussions about investing ideas at discussion section
    We also held $PFF since 2014
    Have/exposed $schd last 4 5 months
  • November 2022 updates?
    Re @David_Snowball #4 in the forthcoming January 2023 issue, "Identify opportunities in small caps (especially small cap value)....."
    The current Barron's has a feature story on small-caps with lots of data (but un-linkable chart and tables),
    BULLISH. Small-caps (SCs are 30% cheaper than LCs; SC R2000 has a lot of garbage and has fwd P/E 20, but excluding unprofitable companies (33%, many biotechs) & few outliers, the fwd P/E is only 12; SCs have domestic orientation and have more cyclicality; risk – recession but it may be priced in; OEFs NSVAX, WGROX; ETFs FNDA, SLY (good that IWM is not recommended); stocks BOOT, CDAY, HUBS, MGY, SAIA, SITE, STZHF, TPR)
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/small-cap-stocks-funds-51670023712?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/370/barron-december-5-2022-2
  • Hotmail emails archive to computer hard drive.
    Maybe this thread over at retire-early might ease your mind. Everyone, or many, with older hotmail accounts started getting spammed like crazy several weeks ago. I set my hotmail account to block all incoming email except email from my brother-in-law. I would have deleted the account if I felt he wouldn't be frustrated by it. They seem to be just random junk/spam and don't seem to be tailored to an individual. It's like many hotmail accounts receive the same spam hoping a few will act on it.
    Sudden Flood of Spam emails
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Click the episode title on wealthtrack.com and look below the video image.
    You'll see: WEALTHTRACK Episode #1913 broadcast on September 23, 2022.
  • Jerome Powell Signals Fed Prepared to Slow Rate-Rise Pace in December
    Thanks for sharing the data - nice to see the figure that Paul Krugman discussed earlier.
    Rent data is seldom discuss. Housing cost is the single largest expenditure on the household. Even for home owners the property tax increases every year just as the rent goes up.
    Not only the Fed missed their 2% target, they reacted too slow and not aggressively enough when inflation jumped back in 2021. Some warned inflation will rise from the supply chain issues resulting from the pandemic.
  • Hotmail emails archive to computer hard drive.
    What you are experiencing are “spam’ emails, unless you click or download enclosed links on these emails. For now, your computer is NOT infected with malware or virus.
    Generally, these emails can come from any countries, typically from Eastern European counties, Russia, Iran, Turkey and other bad actors. So, do not clink on any links on your emails, or reply to them.
    If you have click on the links, then there is a good possibility you may have imported the malware. Then you may have compromise you hard drive. But that is a different topic.
    For now, assuming you have not click on any links and the hard drive is intact, several things you can do on your existing email account:
    1. Create filters on your email browsers. When you hover you arrow over the email sender, it provides the email address. Pay attention to the “extension part” of the address so to alter yourself without even open the email. “.tu” is from Turkey; “ru” is from Russia. You can tell the filter to put these suspicious email into trash directly so you don’t receive them in the future. I create a large number filter parameters (email extension, email address, sender, and many more) and that filter out large number of garbage emails. New spam emails will pop up, but you can continue to squash them with filters and simply not open them. They may sound threatening, but nothing is harm until they are proven so.
    2. Avoid certain email accounts: yahoo (the worst). Please use the one from your internet provider. If necessary, create several of them. Gmail is okay, but i avoid them, and create new email account using my internet provider.
    3. Be careful not to share personal informationincluding social security #, birthday, bank/brokerage account number, (certainly) password in Non-secured email unless you absolutely sure of the recipients. That is how someone can create identity theft on your behalf.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Well, we have 'Two for Tuesday' (FM radio); and a 'Warm for Wednesday' (Powell/Fed. statement). Warm and fuzzy feeling, for the most part; the Fed. rate increases may back down a tad. Then, 'Freaky Friday', from the jobs and wages reports. Too many new jobs and folks making too much via hourly wage. Damn, can't catch a break, eh? Speaking of breaks, these 'hotter' numbers may give more pause to the Fed and any notion about going easy on the rate increases and for how long. Sorry, companies and you worker bee folks; you're going to have to stop this economic expansion. We'll help you going forward, okay? Bond yields/prices hopped around a bit; with many bond areas giving the 'bird' to the FED, for the week in total. About midday Friday, bond yields dropped and resulting nice price gains came forth to support a direction for the week. As shown in the below list, the longer duration of IG bonds continues to provide the best performance. Those who have bonds in their investment mix now have more support in this area. The recent, apparent bottom in bond pricing from October 25 continues to find support from those levels.
    ALGO FED: Perhaps the FED should try operating their mandates via an ALGO program using 20 economic data points of their choice; to discover the results for managing the U.S. economy, in this manner.
    Several selected bond fund returns since October 25.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    All listed etf's below have nice price gains for this past week, except the 'bear/short' etf.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 28- December 2, 2022
    --- AGG = +1.5% / -11.2% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.22% / -1.4% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.47% / -3.8% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +1.2% / -8.4% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.8% / -12.8% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +2.65% / -9.5% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = +1.2% / -3.5% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +6.8% / -25% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +4.3% / -26.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +6% / -33% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +6.5% / -34.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -8.2% / +68.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +12.5% / -65.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +1.56% / -12% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = +1.2% / -9.1% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.9% / -15.1% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield is stagnate for this past week, versus the past six months.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Hotmail emails archive to computer hard drive.
    I have an old MSN email account newer (5 years) Hotmail account. Both can be accessed on Hotmail.com.
    Approximately 3 years ago, I started to receive these extortion emails at my MSN email (I never had a problem with my Hotmail account). I changed my password and notified the FBI. These extortion emails lasted about 1 month.
    While I rarely use my MSN email, I do receive a considerable amount of spam. The nature of the spam leads me to believe that it is a function of the extortion emails. I guess "they" figured if they could not get money from me, they would be a royal pain in the a**. This problem did not infect my PC with a virus or malware. I think that I had Windows Defender back then and a few years ago I added the free versions of Malwarebytes, Glary Utilities, and CCleaner.
  • Jerome Powell Signals Fed Prepared to Slow Rate-Rise Pace in December

    Following are excerpts from a current article by Paul Krugman in The New York Times. He argues for a nominal inflation rate in the 3-4% area, which I personally believe would be acceptable. The complete article is fairly long, and if you are a NY Times subscriber, here is the link.
    Put on your statistical noise-canceling headphones, and the sound you hear is that of falling underlying inflation. Even Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said in effect as much in his speech Wednesday.
    It’s not happening yet, but in the not-too-distant future we’ll probably see inflation fall enough that we’ll have to make some hard decisions about when to declare victory.
    About Powell’s speech: I was especially gratified to see him noting that market rents have been moderating fast, a development that will predictably lead to a falloff in official shelter inflation — which in turn plays a huge role in standard measures of underlying inflation — some time next year. Unfortunately, the chart he presented showed changes over the past year, which is too long a stretch: The big falloff in rents has taken place just over the past few months. For example, here’s rent data from Apartment List:
    image
    Rents normally decline in the fall, but the recent decline was much bigger than seasonal factors alone can explain. So one main component of inflation is set to come way down.
    And already, if we use market rents instead of the official shelter measure, which lags rents by many months, we get “core” inflation of less than 3 percent recently.
    As it happens, a number of economists, myself included, have long argued that the 2 percent target is too low. This isn’t a radical position; many of the advocates of a 3 or even 4 percent target are as mainstream as they get.
    And the huge changes the pandemic has wrought in how we work and what we buy have shown that the problems of adjustment are even bigger than we thought, and these problems might be easier to deal with if we accepted 3 or even 4 percent inflation rather than insisting that we get it down to 2.
    Now, Federal Reserve officials really, really don’t want to talk about this. They believe that any explicit statement to the effect that 2 percent is no longer the target would damage their credibility. I understand that. But the rest of us don’t have that problem.
  • BREIT vs SREIT - What Investors Should Know
    From the Hoya Capital blog:
    Blackstone Redemptions • Mixed Jobs Data • REIT M&A
    'Blog' reports are supposedly readable by anyone but just in case here's a snippet.
    "Real estate asset manager Blackstone (BX) was in focus today after its massive $70B nontraded REIT platform - BREIT - announced that it has begun limiting withdrawals after a wave of redemption requests that exceeded its monthly and quarterly limits. An issue that we predicted in our State of the REIT Nation Report last month, BREIT reported that its Net Asset Value has increased 9.3% this year through September 30 - claiming roughly 40% outperformance over the public REIT indexes despite paying "top-dollar" to acquire a half-dozen public REITs over the past two years whose closest public REIT peers are trading lower by an average of 30% this year. Naturally, investors have seized on the opportunity to redeem shares at these premium valuations. We've discussed the risks of non-traded REIT ("NTR") space across many reports over the past half-decade and continue to watch the area for signs of stress given their typically-high leverage and sensitivity to investor fund flows - which we expect could eventually become an area that's "ripe for picking" for the more conservatively-managed REITs."
  • November 2022 updates?
    I'm searching for the updates for Nov. 2022, usually posted at the beginning of the next month, viz Dec. 2022.
    Have I missed something? (Posted 12/2/2022)
  • End of year tax losses
    Also keep in mind annual charitable contributions & gifts to family & friends.
    +1. Consider also (if you haven't yet) a Qualified Charitable Distribution from an IRA, which reduces the amount taxable from an RMD. It's a good deal for those of us whose income level and deductions favor taking the fed standard deduction rather than itemizing charitables and other deductions on a Schedule A.
  • Stable Value (SV) Rates
    Money market yields are getting competitive to 4, 8 and 13 weeks treasury bills
  • How the Hospice Movement Became a For-Profit Hustle
    @sma3 It's a mistake to generalize about unions. There are good ones and bad ones. The nurses' union, SEIU, is one of the better ones and it has been in the forefront of exposing some abuses at hospitals: https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/health-news-florida/2022-02-10/nurses-union-accuses-hca-of-unnecessary-hospital-admissions-to-drive-profits
    and:
    https://hcavsamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/SEIU_Investigative_Report_FINAL-1.pdf
    Moreover, it's hard to argue that unionized labor such as nurses and orderlies are behind the problems at non-profit or for-profit hospitals. Nurses until the pandemic didn't have adequate wages for the amount of work they did. Now they are getting paid better because of a significant shortage. Orderlies were far worse, and remain severly underpaid for doing the worst bed-pan work.
    Nurses and orderlies in my experience do most of the labor in hospitals, with doctors visiting their patients for a few minutes each day during their rounds. During the pandemic, nurses experienced the brunt of some of the exposures to the disease and caring for these patients, some of whom were hostile to even the notion that the pandemic existed: https://npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/11/955128562/for-health-care-workers-the-pandemic-is-fueling-renewed-interest-in-unions
    Yet I agree with you about the comparison between the U.S. healthcare system and Britain's. Ours is broken. Britain's still works, despite the Tories best efforts to break it and turn it into ours: https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/11/tories-fear-loathe-nhs-workers-strike