Cargo operations were shut down yesterday at the Port of Seattle.
Link

One can enter orders online to do same day exchange of funds within the same family. However, Fidelity requires you to use shares (not dollars) to say how much you're selling if you're exchanging more than 90% of a fund.
Limiting dollar orders to 90% of a holding ensures that you have enough shares to sell even if the price plunges before the sale is executed at end of day.
Same day exchanges across fund families are more complicated. They're not really single transaction exchanges but a sell order and a buy order masquerading as an exchange. So the transactions have to be in dollars. And that means Fidelity limits them to 90% of the current value of the fund being sold.
Further, the buy order has to be placed by a Fidelity rep. The online system won't let you enter the buy order for the same day yourself.
The rep's task is straightforward:
1) Compute 90% of the current value of the old fund
2) Enter a sell order for that amount of the old fund
3) Enter a buy order for that amount of the new fund
Five phone calls, three reps, and I now have such an order entered. Two of the five calls were dropped by the phone system when trying to connect me with a rep. Rep one said I had to sell all the shares to use 90% of the proceeds for the new fund. Rep two actually entered the transaction as a single-transaction exchange (doesn't work). Third time was the charm.

This bond thread was posted Sunday, May 14. I thought it would be interesting to see how the major U.S. stock indexes have fared over the 25-day period since the post went up.
Friday, May 12 Closing Averages
S&P 500 4,124.08
The Dow Jones Industrial Average 33,300.62.
The Nasdaq composite 12,284.74.
Friday, June 9 Closing Averages
S&P 500 4,298.86 / CHANGE +4.24% since May 12
Dow Jones Industrials 33,876.78 / CHANGE +1.73% since May 12
Nasdaq 13,259.14 / CHANGE +7.93% since May 12
Source for May 12

Junk:
TUHYX. (15.65% of portfolio.)
5 yr +14.31%
3 yr: +3.6%
1 yr: +0.67%
YTD: +5.87%
3 mo: +1.41
Better than my Tips. But I'm holding the Tips, anyhow.
Other junk of mine: PRCPX and HYDB.

IMHO, I think picking Arizona as the manufacturing site is a mistake. Semiconductor manufacturing is a very water intensive process and the West is having severe water shortage in past decade.
[snip]

This should be a major concern. Forty million people depend on the Colorado River for water.
An epic drought (23 years!) and historic mismanagement of water resources (Colorado River Compact, 1922)
brought record low water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell last year.
Link

This is spot-on in so many ways....
BC Sunday Cartoon
https://gocomics.com/bc/2023/06/11

As we've talked through this thread for almost 1 month, the 2 bond funds I have in my conservative withdrawal bucket are both doing as well or better than treasuries since the start of the thread. RPHYX up .46% for the month. SAMBX up .86% in that time. Albeit at greater risk than treasuries.
edit: 60% of this account is still in treasuries or CDs. No denying they are still a great option.

@yogibb, I have made the switch already since January this year to increase allocation to intermediate term bonds since. First started on treasury and then corporate bonds using both active and passive managed funds/ETFs. Though I have limited choices in my 401(k) plan. Also invested in a multi sector fund, PIMIX, and ST HY bond, OSTIX based on previously experience with these managers. My bank loan/floating rate bond exposure are limited to PRWCX, but I am watching closely as Giruox makes his moves quickly.
I continue to maintain a decent exposure to cash equivalents as long as the yield curve is inverted. Given this year’s inflation running near 5%, these cash equivalent is barely able to keep up AFTER factoring out inflation. Nevertheless, there are still better than the past near zero yield with money market. So rotating to the intermediate term bonds is necessary for the bond price appreciation as you noted that Fed’s rate hike is near the end.
During the March 2020 drawdown, BL/FL funds fell like HY corporate funds, averaging over 10%, and they took close to 6 months to recover. Treasury’s, in contrast, barely dropped at all and end ed the year up several percents as the FED cut the rate to 0.25%.
A mid-year review from Schwab’s Kathy Jones is enclosed for your enjoyment.
https://schwab.com/learn/story/mid-year-outlook-fixed-income

...
Dear stillers:
1) Let me ask you an easy question. Why did you use 3 different names(stillers,Arriba, Albie) on different sites? Did you try to hide something?
2) Why don't you try to register on BB as stillers? You have no chance with the moderator who knows you for years.
BTW, the subject of this thread is bond, why not make comments on it?

Ah, the classic FD/Red Party way: Deny Delay, Deflect.***
(1) Ah, C'mom man! You've asked that questions several times and I've 'splained the answer to you, well, several times. Memory problems? Or just another example of the above***?
Or, as Dan Rather once infamously stated, "No Mr (xxx), are you?"
(2) The Moderator of that forum is a fellow Trumper of yours who has cut you unbelievable slack there since that forum started. Apparently you finally overstepped your bounds netting a 90-day ban, and now need to incessantly push your wares elsewhere for that stretch . (See just about every other forum you've ever participated on.)
Aside, and "For kicks" as capecod used to say: Given my use of other names in the past, maybe I AM registered there and you just don't know it!
(3) Well dummy, if you had read the whole thread, you'd have seen that I DID make comments about the OP topic long before you entered the thread post-BB ban.

As I said earlier, I have a watchlist of about a dozen BL/FR funds. Everyone of them are positive for 1 week, 1 month, 3 month, and YTD. "If" I choose to put some money to work in this category, I would consider some of the lower risk options (according to SD and M*). A few examples include PRFRX, SAMBX, MWFLX, etc. TRowe Price PRFRX has a SD of 3.76, an M* Risk Rating of Below Average, TR of one week of .72/one month of .78/3 month of 1.26/YTD of 4.59. Metropolitan West MWFLX has a SD of 3.56, M* Risk Rating of Low, TR of one week of.60/1 month of .79/3 month of 1.77/YTD of 4.94.

Yogi: "FR/BL are great for rising rates. But when rates are steady or declining, they act just like risky short-term HY (FR/BL are low-rated). That party is/maybe ending soon too."
There is always a risk/reward decision to be made in investing in bond oefs. FR/BL did very well for many years, in the last 10 years, when rates were flat and certainly not rising. As a junk bond category, (most BLs are B rated), I frequently used them in the past, as a "lower risk" option for junk bond investing. When I read the Feds intentions regarding rates, I am not struck with the impression that a rate drop, is very likely this calendar year. On the contrary, I see the Feds raising rates very gradually the rest of the year, and trying to find their happy place for a smooth landing, and trying to keep inflation under control. The beauty about Discussion Forums, regarding bonds, there is often varying opinions about what the market is presenting to an investor as an opportunity. At any rate, I thought this thread should have an option of actually discussing "Bonds", as an alternative to some of the other topics on this thread, that do not appear very constructive!

Looking for direction? Plenty of ambiguity from guest #1 (Lisa Erickson / U.S. Bank):
“We’re, Ah, what we call a skeptical participant in the U.S. market, really, with a neutral position on U.S. equities. … You’ve got a conflicting set of signals going on as far as what may happen with the stock market. … So are we in a new bull market? We think it still remains to be seen.”
Erickson later on recommends some specific income producing stocks (reinsurance) & bonds (non-agency backed mortgages).
Always enjoy hearing Ray Dalio (midway through program). Spoke in generalities about U.S. China relations. You’d be hard pressed to take away specific stock recommendations. But Dalio’s a strong believer in the coming AI revolution.

@Sven, @Observant1, Sara DEVEREUX has a feature in the current Barron's. From my Summary, Part 2 (some excerpts also posted earlier by @Observant1),
Sara DEVEREUX, Vanguard Fixed-Income Head. She joined Vanguard in 2019 from Goldman Sachs/GS. After a terrible 2022, BONDS are doing better in 2023; she wears a button, “Bonds Are Back”. She thinks that the US will have a shallow recession in 2023. Inflation fell from its peak but is still high; the core PCE may be +3.3% by 2023YE, +2.xx% by 2024YE. Many supply-related issues have been resolved, but the demand has to cool to tame wages and inflation. The labor market remains strong, but it is a lagging indicator. Due to many factors now, the unemployment rate may peak at 5% in the next recession. The FED may pause in June to assess the impact of its rapid tightening so far, but rates may go up later, and may remain higher for longer. The times now are opportunities for active bond investors (remember, she is at Vanguard!). She likes portfolios of high-quality bonds of short/intermediate duration with some HY and EM (consider those as equity equivalent); munis are also attractive. HY spreads are tight, but their absolute yields are OK. She is avoiding FR/BL as those are of lower quality. Vanguard funds mentioned are VCOBX (core), VCPAX (core plus), VGIT (Treasuries – intermediate), VMSIX (multisector), VTES (short-term muni).

I would just note that Floating Rate/Bank Loan category of bond funds, has been doing pretty well this calendar year. I continue to maintain a watchlist of about a dozen funds in the FR/BL category, and everyone of them has positive performance for one week, one month, 3 months, and YTD. The FR/BL category has historically performed well in Flat and Rising Rate Markets, TR performance has a positive trend this year, and rates do not seem likely to fall anytime soon. I have not invested in this category in the last year, but this category is looking promising.

Hank: FD - Just a reaction to your use of “proprietary”. It sounds as if you can’t share your approach on a board dedicated to sharing and helping one another. But perhaps I misunderstood your intent. Sorry if I offended you.
FD: I did share, read the link. The following is a main tech indicator I have used called, three line break. For over a year now, all my bond trades were in HY Munis using 2 out of the 3 funds each time (ORNAX,NHMAX,XXXXX). This (chart) shows how it works. Green bars=buy, Red bars=sell. This is a decent indicator that works with many bond funds. How and What else I do is proprietary, especially using mainly 2 funds. This is why I bought in the middle of last week.
But, there is a change. The Fed fund rate, as we know it now, is stabilized at +-0.25% for the next several months. This means to me that finally, the risk of higher rates is lower, I can use other categories, and Multi is where I find unique funds. Munis were easier to predict with my trades and behave better than treasuries.
I already posted that this time I bought NHMAX. This fund is usually the riskiest, the chance is for a better upside this time. As of April 30, it has an effective leverage of 27.3% per Nuveen site, there isn't other HY Muni OEF with such a leverage, unless I missed it.
So, after more than a year trading only HY munis, this time NHMAX is only a small % of my portfolio, the other bond fund isn't.
========
Dear stillers:
1) Let me ask you an easy question. Why did you use 3 different names(stillers,Arriba, Albie) on different sites? Did you try to hide something?
2) Why don't you try to register on BB as stillers? You have no chance with the moderator who knows you for years.
BTW, the subject of this thread is bond, why not make comments on it?

YBB,
AI generated significant excitement in recent months after ChatGPT became available to the masses.
Many companies jumped on the AI bandwagon in their Q1 2023 earnings calls.
All this hype makes me very circumspect regarding investment opportunities emanating from the technology.
I believe AI will increase general productivity and may facilitate medical breakthroughs among other benefits.
However, there are also considerable risks associated with the technology.
I agree with much of your assessment but don't have an opinion regarding Apple's AI strategy.

Many new technologies go through cycles of boom and bust, so will it be with AI.
I heard a lot about AI in 1970s too as a graduate student. Many universities had novel AI Labs. They are still around but there are also hotter Media Labs, Digital Xyz Labs, Robotics/ Automation/ Machine Learning Labs, etc. The future consumer world that the prominent AI thinkers at the time (1970s) projected was nothing like the world today because they couldn't guess about web/ Internet, wireless phones, smart phones that are as good as a roomful of computer equipment then, etc. The hottest thing in AI is the generative AI and that goes back only to Fall 2022 (less than a few months ago) and it has spread like wildfire. It will soon be proliferating with versions from many companies. All this hype may cool down when companies figure out that nobody is making money yet from it. If nothing else, there will be a huge consolidation/ shakeout. After a bust, another wave of commercially useful generative AI may come along and will be embedded in many things - software and/or hardware.
Then, Apple will jump into it and beat up everybody all over again (-:).

I read the Vanguard report. Dated from this past April. I read no surprises, actually. Two-thirds of my bonds are in junk. And lately, we added Tips SCHP. It's breaking even, or just barely below, for the duration we've owned that ETF. TUHYX yield = 7.45%. PRCPX yield = 6.75% and HYDB yield = 6.61%. Higher up the food-chain, SCHP yield = 5.85%. I'm not complaining.
(On the other hand, BRUFX sits in the 100th percentile among peers. That is cruddy and terrible.)

Note: this is not a comment on Observant1's posted video
I'll get excited about AI as soon as I hear that it's being considered universally to cure natural stupidity.

In this week’s Barron’s (”Up & Down Wall Street”) Randall Forsyth cites two veteran bond traders, 89 year old Dan Fuss & Louise Yamada …
“Spoiler alert: These veterans are both cautious now, with a strong preference for short-term Treasury bills.”
Forsyth’s tune changes week-to-week, so don’t take it too seriously. But the overall tone this week is that we’re into the early stages of a decades-long rise in interest rates (and a bear market in bonds). That supposedly explains the caution of the two veterans cited. It is also stated that - “Over two-plus centuries, U.S. longterm rates have oscillated around an average of 5% …”
Thanks @Observant1 and @Sven for helping keep this thread on the tracks.

@Sven, @Observant1, Sara DEVEREUX has a feature in the current Barron's. From my Summary, Part 2 (some excerpts also posted earlier by @Observant1),
Sara DEVEREUX, Vanguard Fixed-Income Head. She joined Vanguard in 2019 from Goldman Sachs/GS. After a terrible 2022, BONDS are doing better in 2023; she wears a button, “Bonds Are Back”. She thinks that the US will have a shallow recession in 2023. Inflation fell from its peak but is still high; the core PCE may be +3.3% by 2023YE, +2.xx% by 2024YE. Many supply-related issues have been resolved, but the demand has to cool to tame wages and inflation. The labor market remains strong, but it is a lagging indicator. Due to many factors now, the unemployment rate may peak at 5% in the next recession. The FED may pause in June to assess the impact of its rapid tightening so far, but rates may go up later, and may remain higher for longer. The times now are opportunities for active bond investors (remember, she is at Vanguard!). She likes portfolios of high-quality bonds of short/intermediate duration with some HY and EM (consider those as equity equivalent); munis are also attractive. HY spreads are tight, but their absolute yields are OK. She is avoiding FR/BL as those are of lower quality. Vanguard funds mentioned are VCOBX (core), VCPAX (core plus), VGIT (Treasuries – intermediate), VMSIX (multisector), VTES (short-term muni).