Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    "Longer term CD's near 5% might come back, but for now it seems questionable."
    Not quite 5%, but KS State Bank is offering 3-, 4-, 5-, and 7-year CDs with 4.99% APY.
    https://www.ksstate.bank/resources/deposit-rates/
    Interest compounds and pays quarterly. Interest can be deposited to another account (rather than reinvested) only if account is opened at one of their seven Kansas locations.
    Early withdrawal penalties range from 12 months interest (3-year CD), to 15 months (4-year CD) and 18 months (5- or 7-year CD).
    https://www.ksstate.bank/globalassets/depositaccountdisclosure.pdf
  • Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg’s letter announcing the cuts
    From the little that I've seen so far on Amazon it seems to be a general cut affecting many different areas of operation- from Alexa to retail. Here is a a short excerpt from a New York Times report:
    In recent months, Amazon has also closed or pared back a smattering of initiatives, including Amazon Care, its service providing primary and urgent health care that failed to find enough customers; Scout, the cooler-size home delivery robot, that employed 400 people, according to Bloomberg; and Fabric.com, a subsidiary that sold sewing supplies for three decades.
    From April through September, it reduced head count by almost 80,000 people, primarily shrinking its hourly staff through high attrition.
    Amazon froze hiring in several smaller teams in September. In October, it stopped filling more than 10,000 open roles in its core retail business. Two weeks ago, it froze corporate hiring across the company, including its cloud computing division, for the next few months.
    Devices and Alexa have long been seen internally as at risk for cuts. The company has sold hundreds of millions of Alexa-enabled devices. But Amazon has said the products are often low margin and other potential revenue sources such as voice shopping have not caught on.
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    At Fido, no new non-callable CDs over 18 months so far. If any do pop up, I'm guessing they sell out within minutes.
    The banks have scurried away like cockroaches after you've turned on the lights. And somebody flicked that giant light switch last week (CPI report reaction).
    Longer term CD's near 5% might come back, but for now it seems questionable.
  • BNN. Business News Network. Canada. rediscovered.
    Canadian BNN is owned by Bell Media (owned by BCE). Since 2018, BNN became BNN Bloomberg through licensing & partnership with the US Bloomberg. BNN Bloomberg develops most of its own Canadian content but also carries many Bloomberg stories.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNN_Bloomberg
    David Rosenberg always had bearish inclinations. He is widely cited/quoted in the US media. He has been with Merrill Lynch (Canada, US), Gluskin Sheff (Canada), and now runs own Rosenberg Research (Canada). He is also very active on Twitter as "EconguyRosie".
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    I am less sure this is just about crypto, but more about simple fraud.
    it seems SBF used customers assets in the non-US subsidiary as margin for shaky investments in FTT etc, and then CZ pulled the plug on FTT but dumping his entire position. CZ may not have known that FTX and Alameda was so heavily margined against customer's assets, but found out when SBF came begging for rescue.
    US security laws and regulations prevent brokerages from using customer's assets for their own purposes, so it is unlikely without a non-US subsidiary, this would have blown up so spectacularly.
    I had a friend whose son had "a couple of million dollars worth " in Bitcoin on a thumb drive locked in a safe deposit box when Bitcoin was $15000 in 2018. He said the kid was sure it would soon hit $200,000 a "coin" and they could buy a nice yacht.
    I never heard if the kid sold it.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    A bit late, but if you want to look at some prior week numbers. Various contributors here have expressed reasons for lower yields last week. Lower CPI may have been largest push for lower yields, but; not unlike the markets in general, the bond area will remain in FLUX. The FED will play with the numbers to choose their path going forward, relative to rate increases.
    MANY bond areas had large one week positive pricing moves, so one made money in the pricing area.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated report in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, November 7- November 11, 2022
    --- AGG = + 2.3% / -13.9% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = + .024% / -1.9% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.69% / -4.2% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + 1.78% / -9.8% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = + 2.7% / -15.4% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = + 1.7% / -12.7% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = + ,64% / -4.5% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = + 4.3% / -32% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = + 3.9% / -33% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = + 4.8% / -41% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = + 4.6% / -43% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = - 7.6% / +103% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = + 11.3% / -74% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = + 2,26% / -14.9% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = + 2.13% / -10.9% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = + 5.4% / -19.1% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.75% yield, Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    A great crypto-101 primer, run by the brokerage I use(d) for dabbling in this stuff...
    https://www.gemini.com/cryptopedia
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    @Roy, simple explanations can be dangerous. But even with that risk, let me try.
    Tokens are like prepaid store cards or chips on cruises/casinos. There are hundreds of unregulated crypto exchanges and most have their own tokens. That is what FTT was for the crypto exchange FTX (and its related market-maker Alameda). One uses some cryptos to buy exchange tokens (FTT in case of FTX). To promote their tokens, crypto exchanges offer great deals, discounts, favors.
    But at some point, one wants to get off the train and change the tokens back into cryptos or dollars. But what happens if there is a crisis of confidence and tokens become almost worthless? You cannot trade them, and the "house" won't/cannot honor them. The trigger here was (Mr) CZ of Binance who was an early investor in FTX and received lots of FTTs for his stake in FTX. He got upset by something that (Mr) SBF of FTX did or said and CZ threatened to sell $500+ million in FTTs that he had. Well, that crashed FTT, FTX, Alameda, BlockFi (that FTX was in the process of acquiring), and a few others that we haven't heard about it yet (this situation is still unfolding).
    Amazing that in something touted as DeFi (decentralized finance), 2 guys that most haven't heard of before could cause so much damage.
    At the time of Enron collapse, my wife asked why did it matter to her or general public? She worked at a national store chain. I tried to explain that imagine 100s of stores like hers just vanishing overnight - buildings, stuff, inventory. And that kind of loss can impact EVERYBODY and it did.
    Here too, whether one is in crypto or not, disappearance $125+ billions (industrywide loss est) will have an impact on EVERYBODY. For perspective, in a decent IPO year, startups raise $50+ billion in a year and that leads to good markets (a great year like 2021 has $142.4 billion IPOs, a terrible year like 2022 YTD only $7.6 billion). This crypto crash is going in reverse by draining money - industrywide, $125 billion gone!
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    The other advantage of treasuries is liquidity, so that you can go sell readily in secondary market if you need cash. Also you can buy lots of them in auction or in secondary market.
    One can also build a treasury ladder with 13 week, 26 week and 52 weeks treasury bills with your favorite brokerages. Funds will be available every 3 months as the treasury matures. As the rate get higher you can buy a new treasury bill at a higher rate.
    If you want flexible, have enough cash aside in money market funds that are yielding a respectable 3.2% with Fidelity and Vanguard.
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    @FD1000 "Treasuries are better, they pay more than CD and you don't pay Fed taxes in a taxable account." Are you sure about that, I thought it was State tax exempt.?
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    Greatly diminished choices and longer maturities have gone away. Because of Bank holiday or a tipping point in rate expectations? Same at Fido and Vanguard?
    Let's think about it.
    1) Inflation is much higher than CD. You lose money.
    2) High inflation most likely will go down, 1-2 years from now. This is why you can't get CD for 10 years. I see 5 years at 4.95%. Good chance, it will be higher than inflation in a few years.
    3) Short term is the sweet spot at 3 months. Treasuries are better, they pay more than CD and you don't pay Fed taxes in a taxable account. It's also easier to buy big amounts. This allows you to invest later in bond funds with a good possibility to make 10+% from the bottom (maybe in already) in 12-18 months after rates will stop going up. Remember, bonds have one of the worst first 6 months in history and a good chance to recoup all their losses.
    4) I don't like to lock my money for even 3 months as a bond OEF trader. I traded several times in 2022 successfully, and a good trade can come any day. MM paying over 3.7% or more is pretty good too.
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    What I read indicates that there will be massive amounts of bonds someone needs to buy with the increasing deficit and the fed "rolling off" their inventory with QT. They won't buy more when the bond matures, but money has to go somewhere
    There is a lot of foreign selling as Governments try to defend their currancies against a strong dollar. This may ease somewhat.
    Still with increased supply compared to QE for last what 10 years?, prices will drop, and yields will go up.
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    Hi @Junkster
    I read your post before the delete. Nothing you wrote was out of bounds here.
    Discussions about investing are the forerunners of making decisions about trades; be they CD's, MMKT funds, traditional mutual funds, plain vanilla etf's, sector etf's, exotic etf's or 1 stock share or 1 bond.
    Continue to write and express.
    Respectfully,
    Catch