Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries If one sat on a bunch of cash through the current hot mess and is looking for a great yield, the very much reduced bond fund share prices offer a good entry point, these days. I bought-into junk bonds TUHYX too soon. But as time goes by, the profit rises from month to month as dividends serve to buy new shares at a lower cost.
Step back and look at the Big Picture, and you must admit that OJ is 100% correct. And re: Treasuries? After some of the nightmare difficulties and snafus I've read about right here at MFO about people trying to buy through the gov't website leaves me deciding not to do it on my own. Let uncle David Giroux buy my Treasuries for me.
2022 is a unique year, with QT and rising rates. But remember that the QE and depressed interest rates were a very unusual period of time. We are having a snap-back reaction at the moment, eh? My credit union just emailed an offer for a 30-month CD at 3.25% with a $5k minimum. No thanks. The dividends alone on my junk bond fund is getting me better results than MOST of my stock funds these days.
Inflation will be sticky. Seems to me we are living through a ratcheted-up New Normal. Raising interest rates is like pushing on a string to move it where you want it to go. The old metaphor.
(Meanwhile, my single-stocks are treating me very well. Maybe I didn't screw-up, this time, with my selections. I'm approaching a level where I will have made up for last year's loss.)
I'm still 25 bonds and 9 foreign stocks and 62 domestic stocks. And 2 cash. Adding small bits to a small stable of single-stocks as I'm able, lately.
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries Additionally, the Fed is planning to raise rate until mid 2023.
If the Fed raises at their next 4 meetings...say 50 bp (Dec
14), 50 bp (Feb
1), 25 bp (Mar
16), 25 bp (May 4).... and are finished at the beginning of May, that is 6 months from now.
But as those increases diminish, could bonds rally in 2Q?
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries New agency bond issues at Fido - Federal Home Loans Bank Bonds with maturities of 10 (6.41%) and 12 years (6.61%).
Federal Farm CR Bank Bond will have a coupon rate at 6.98% for a longer dated 15 year.
Would anybody consider these good investments? None are call protected.
Moodys (AAA) and S&P (AA+) have them rated highly, but if we go through another housing bust/hard landing recession, do you still want these? Their yields are attractive, but is it worth dabbling?
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries Majority of bond funds are down 15%, and the Fed is far from done with raising rate. This also spills over into traditional balanced funds and they sustained double digit loss.
Bank loan funds have the least amount of loss, -3% YTD. That is helping PRWCX, but Giroux now invest 10% in treasury. I considered that is a defensive move. During March 2020 pandemic, bank loan funds fell too until Powell cut rate to near zero. They bounced back ok. During stress time, things can fall at the same time. CDs and short term treasuries held up ok but they paid little at that time.
Right now, buying CD and treasury ladders is unlikely to loss like typical bond funds today, while you can get a respectable return with 4-5% yield.
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries Fido is offering a 5.50% 15 year (Callable) CD - Jonesboro State Bank.
The highest Non-callable CD Fido offers at the moment is 5.0% from Capital One. Its a 5 yr CD.
Note: These are New issue only, not secondary market CD offerings.
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
2022 year-end capital gains distribution estimates (Vanguard's Final estimated year-end posted) @TheShadow, that is a long but good list. I scanned it for "stories" - index funds and funds-of-funds (typically of index funds) with large CG distributions. Index funds with large redemptions can have this problem. I wasn't disappointed.
Fido Real Estate Index FESIX
19%
Principal SP SC600 Index PSSPX 9%
Principal SP MC400 Index PMFPX 6%
TIAA-CREF LC Growth Index TILIX 9% (I have it in 403b, so it doesn't matter)
TIAA-CREF Lifestyle funds TIMIX 6%, TSAIX 7%, TSGGX 6%
2022 year-end capital gains distribution estimates (Vanguard's Final estimated year-end posted)
Kinetics Paradigm WWNPX I stumbled across TPL and Horizon in early 2021 and doubled my money in about six months. I sold at $1200 a share mainly because it seemed too good to be true, although it has doubled again.
The stock price does not parallel the price of oil or natural gas, although this year gas has skyrocketed more than TPL, but has crashed.
TPL keeps climbing and reported earnings and cash flow up almost two times.
They basically own a lot of land in West Texas and collect royalties from the oil and gas there. They also have a water business, used mainly in fracking, I think, and lease land for roads and other activities, some of which is for wind and solar sites and now batteries.
All of the latter must explain TPL sharp increase recently although the price of oil and gas have been relatively flat
It is trading at a pretty high PE ( 28) for an oil and gas company so a lot of this must reflect enthusiasm for the other stuff, ie batteries out in the desert and the renewable energy stuff.
Needs a sharper mind than mine to figure this out.
Kinetics Paradigm WWNPX
Best ETF or Mutual Funds for severe inflationary cycle?
FOMC, 11/2/22 Yesterday, CME FedWatch wasn’t updated fully. Today, it is showing hikes of 50-50-25-25 (and moving around that) to the fed fund terminal rate of 5.25-5.50%. This is BAD news for both stocks and bonds (as if things weren’t bad already. Good seasonality (November
1-April 30) is a weak effect and may not help.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
TBO Capital I had invested over 300K in the thieves at TBO received one withdrawal on 19 Sept then their site was gone along with my money. I have reported to the SEC , FBI & NY DA . I would like to get on the private discussion board
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/2/22 For the week ending on
11/2/22, a huge shift: Neutral became the top sentiment (36.5%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (30.6%; below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (32.9%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -2.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (hiked +75 bps & more to come); dollar; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (36+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were mixed (cyclicals up, growth down), bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=824
Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund to liquidate https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826732/000110465922113963/a22-29340_1497.htm497
1 a22-29340_
1497.htm 497
CALAMOS INVESTMENT TRUST (the “Trust”)
Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund (the “Fund”)
Supplement dated November 2, 2022 to the
CALAMOS® FAMILY OF FUNDS
Prospectus dated March
1, 2022
On October 3
1, 2022, the Trust’s Board of Trustees approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund. As of the date hereof, it is expected that the Fund will be liquidated in the first quarter of 2023.
The Fund will further supplement its prospectus with information regarding the timing of the liquidation, including the date on which the Fund will close to new investors and the date on which it will close to investments from current investors.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
