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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @Observant1. I paid my Estimated Tax due in June early to help the government delay the default. Hope it helps.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    "U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said June 1 remains a 'hard deadline' for raising the federal debt limit, with the odds quite low that the government will collect enough revenue to bridge to June 15,
    when more tax receipts are due."

    "Yellen, speaking on NBC's 'Meet the Press' program, said there would be hard choices to make
    about payments to Americans if Congress failed to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling before Treasury
    ran out of cash and was forced to default."

    Link
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Good interview overall with many historical perspectives. He is quite bearish and the economy is entering a recession now.
    1. He likes things that you need, i.e. consumer staples (food), utilities, and healthcare, not so much things you want.
    2. Long and short tern treasury bonds as in a barbell
    3. Gold, but they are near all time high
    4. Farmland (impractical for most investors)
    5. Defense industries as the budget goes up every year
    6. His equity allocation is at all time low (recession)
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @dtconroe what makes a banking account (checking and savings) more liquid than a money market fund at the likes of Schwab?
    Hi Mona, I have a brick and mortar branch of my bank 10 minutes away. I literally can get whatever cash I need out of that bank within just a few minutes. If the bank is closed, I have a drive through ATM 5 minutes away where I can get cash. I can move money between my checking account and savings accout online, instantly. I have FDIC protections and I have tremendous trust in my bank as a result of many years of membership. I also have a large number of bills linked to my bank account online, for monthly drafting to pay the expenses. I also have a large number of ongoing deposits from social security, spouse pensions, etc. and if any of those are disrupted by Default problems, then I have other cash available in my bank savings account that I can quickly shift to my checking account for bill drafting coverage.
    With my Schwab brokerage MM account, I have to put in a trade to sell a certain amount of the MM fund, and it goes to brokerage cash the next day. Then I have to transfer the brokerage cash electronically to my bank, and it takes a couple of days for the trade to settle and the transfer to be completed. Sometimes the weekend delays the process for a few more days. When the money finally arrives at my bank, then I can go through the withdrawal, bill paying process, that I already described.
    From my perspective, everything is faster and more dependable by have adequate assets in my banking account, and quite frankly I trust my bank more than my Schwab brokerage to protect my cash.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    I just can't believe all of the panic going on with the investors posting on this forum. First, IMO the 14th was not meant for this kind of situation. Second, this mess will be worked out. Even if it is not, there are worse things that can happen. If the national debt is allowed to keep going up and going up, you are going to see much worse. Your portfolio will not only go down, it will no longer exist. The FIDC insurance for banks will disappear. Your cash with be worthless. The increase in the national debt must be stopped to save the country. We must stop thinking of ourselves and think of the country. That goes for both parties. So stop the blame game, (that includes me), and lets get our country out of debt.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @Riskless
    10%+ can be easily chopped from discretionary defense spend with no impact at all to our military capabilities. But then how would the GOP pay for their masters in the MIC. Kissing the ring isn't sufficient payback ya know, it's just cherry on the top.
    There's something rotten in Denmark when Congress provides MORE defense money than asked for (as happened a few years back)
  • In case of DEFAULT
    At this time, and for lack of any better alternatives that meet my comfort level, I am keeping 100% of my portfolio in a Treasury Only MM fund and in FDIC insured CDs issued by the largest national banks until the proverbial dust settles.
    Good luck,
    Fred
    Hi Fred, I am not sure what kind of portfolio you have. I have both a traditional taxable account, along with an IRA account. I am keeping my Brokerage IRA portion in MMs and CDs, but I am transferring "part" of my traditional brokerage taxable account to my Banking Account (checking and Savings) for liquidity reasons. Do you count your Banking Account as part of your portfolio?
  • In case of DEFAULT
    The pieces are now falling into place. Biden has given a heads up that invoking the 14th(eventually) is on the table. This is basically a dare which will further harden the GOP stance making a technical default almost certain now.
    The debt ceiling law cannot over-ride a Constitutional Amendment and one would expect SC to go along with that but as someone else commented in this thread, the current band of suave and coarse GOP thugs on the SC have shown that anything can be twisted and shaped to fit into a political agenda judicial restraint, precedent and common sense be damned. So SC ruling is a toss up but my bet is still on SC agreeing with Biden.
    Cuts only to non-military spending with no new revenue is a red line that has almost no chance of clearing the Senate. Any compromise agreement coming from the current negotiations will need to go through multiple rounds of revisions before the House and Senate both pass it. A redux of McCarthy's path to House Speaker!
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @fred495...question if you are comfortable answering...how much of a change meaning your 100% Treasury MMKT and FDIC CD portfolio from your past portfolio...were you very heavy in those investments prior and if so what % of your portfolio?
    FWIW...I've been 85-90% for many years in those types of investments....now ~ 95%...."stop playing the game if you feel you've got enough...don't get greedy...get your portfolio where you can sleep well at night" I'm still working and do I guess you would say better than average out there...working for the "fun of the game, camraderie and challenge.."
    Have to say, my current thinking is you might be "safer?" in AAPL as due to a better balance sheet than the govt (no printing press though) as it is a utility without the interest rate exposure of a normal utility and has plenty of "fan boys/girls/others" who are addicted to their products...maybe BRK-B too but I saw during the Pandemic ole'Warren kinda froze up a bit, he seemed really rattled for someone who has had many trips around the sun...
    I've been adding to FPACX...nice cash buffer in portfolio, thinking Romick and the boys will know what to do AND act at the somewhat correct time...heard on recent podcasts that the "technicals" are looking better, throwing off buy signals...who the heck knows though right?
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • In case of DEFAULT
    So what's the (GQP) plaintiff's argument for likely suing the administration for invoking the 14th as a way of killing this stupid debt ceiling nonsense? "Your Honors, we disagree with requiring the government pay for things it's already purchased?" Could any (sane) lawyer seriously make that argument without being drunk first?
    What kind of legal precedent would *that* create if SCOTUS agreed with that argument? Heck, I'd use it to rack up a zillion bucks of purchases on my Amex and then declare my intention to not pay for it when the bill came.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    At this time, and for lack of any better alternatives that meet my comfort level, I am keeping 100% of my portfolio in a Treasury Only MM fund and in FDIC insured CDs issued by the largest national banks until the proverbial dust settles.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (05/20/23)
    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including the Nasdaq 100 comeback, the inverse of 2022, US equity valuations, the US Consumer pullback, and more.
    Video
    Blog
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Several Matthews Asia funds were mentioned.
    I personally would stay away from all Matthews Asia funds in the near-term (possibly long-term).
    There has been an exodus of talent at the firm over the past few years.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152046
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/156101
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/159415
    I agree.
    @randynevin. Look at DODWX. It is global, not strictly international. Great track record.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/dodwx/quote
  • Schwab Taps Credit Markets To Raise $2.5 Billion In Debt
    Not really- there are two separate entries there:
    • The first shows "Cash and Cash Investments Total $54,014.50"
    And down in the extreme lower right of the "Balance Details" section:
    "Funds in linked Bank Account $10,046.00"
    And that is agreement with the Account Summary as shown above. The only account we have at the Schwab Bank is a checking account. I'm not sure if that's the same on your side, or if that actually makes any difference at all. This whole thing with the apparent differences in our accounts is very puzzling to me.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    19 May, 2022.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-05-20/wall-street-week-full-show-05-19-2023
    GULP! The national debt is now up to 97% of GDP!? (Remember when the figure was tagged as GNP? So, what's the difference, and why the change?)