I'll add 'YUP' to this...........
From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre." With some guidance from Robert Rubin, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, the Clinton administration and Congress made an effort to reduce the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to approximately 4% by November 1998.
Clinton political adviser James Carville said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."

Difficult to compute how Bullish even garnered a blip much less 28.5%. Where do those folks see the sunshine?

Tomorrow, tomorrow
I love ya tomorrow
You're always, a day away

Difficult to compute how Bullish even garnered a blip much less 28.5%. Where do those folks see the sunshine?

Two questions:
In what fraction of a Scaramucci did FOTUS cave to the bond markets this week?
Did anyone else notice that both Liz Truss & the head of lettuce lasted longer than he did vs the bond markets? But then again, a sliced avocado would’ve lasted longer than him, too.
@gman57: Totally. And if not them, certainly his staff, Elon, and/or his MAL hedge fund friends.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/9/25
BEARISH remained the top sentiment (58.9%, very high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (12.5%, very low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (28.5%, low); Bull-Bear Spread was -30.4% (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, budget, debt, inflation, Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (163+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+2 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 13.03% (oversold*). A historic rally followed after 90-day pause for most tariffs**; exception was China with even higher tariffs. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
*Low was 4.59% on 4/8/25.
**Too late to affect the Survey this week.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1944/thread

Thanks @Mark.
I'm a big HM fan.
@bee posted this interview on 9 April:
Howard Mark's on Credit Market and tariffs:
https://youtu.be/KpnUyGM5M-I

April 9, 2025 at 10pm EST
2, 5, 10 and 30 year Treasury issues are indicating decently lower yields (price appreciation) and hopefully maintaining and improving going into Thursday trading.

It's all part of his super-jenius Plan, remember.

April 9, 2025 at 10pm EST
2, 5, 10 and 30 year Treasury issues are indicating decently lower yields (price appreciation) and hopefully maintaining and improving going into Thursday trading.

Howard Marks piece is dated 4/9/25 & title seems current, but it was a piece written ahead of the huge market moving event of tariff pause today - it isn't mentioned.
And options market activity showed that somebody knew of the announcement ahead and walked away with boatloads of money - SEC, are you too busy?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/william-yii_trump-ugcPost-7315875656888635392-GTVj?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU

PDF version. Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

Ed Yardeni said TODAY that the bond market did it. FWIW, he also posted a warning on possible credit troubles YESTERDAY. Many were wondering about bond yields rising as stocks were falling.
Today - CNBC Interview
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/yardeni-research-inc._yardeni-research-on-cnbc-today-ed-yardeni-activity-7315870185117097985-tbmG?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU
Yesterday - Credit Warning
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/edward-yardeni_is-something-about-to-blow-up-in-the-credit-activity-7315569737210449920-370B?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU

Yes.
"the newest tariff plan is more in line with what Goldman originally anticipated for Trump's trade policy, the bank said in a note, explaining why it was cutting its recession probability from 65% back to 45%.
"As a result, we are reverting to our non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.5% and a 45% probability of recession," analysts wrote an hour after most tariffs were paused.""

The SUTXX return has been slowly sliding over the last eight months: from about 5.17% last August down to 4.13% now. It's going to be interesting to watch the returns on MMKT funds like SWVXX and SUTXX and see if they stay firm or even go up a little bit due to the latest whims of our glorious leader.

Gonna have to throw a WEAK flag on his play!
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-live-updates.html
Excerpt:
‘BE COOL’: Three times Trump dug in on tariffs before he reversed course
The president for days has insisted that his tariffs would not be lifted, despite turmoil in the markets and backlash from investors, voters and allies.
Here are three examples of Trump digging in, just days before reversing course:
“BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!” Trump writes on Truth Social hours before his tariff pause announcement, as economic fallout tariffs mounts.
On Monday, Trump says from the White House that “we’re not looking at” a tariff pause. “We’re not looking at that.”
“Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!” Trump writes on Truth Social on Monday just before markets opened.
BLINK...BLINK...BLINK...
"You're president is not a crook."
-Richard Nixon

amazing. goldman and others usually wait until after 1 side of this chart gets updated.
give that hedgie a bonus !
https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/tariff-swings-20250306/?initialWidth=953&childId=responsive-embed-tariff-swings-20250306&parentTitle=Timeline of Trump's tariff threats, deadlines and pauses : NPR&parentUrl=https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345926/trump-tariffs-timeline

Charlie Gasparino says "What happened in the bond market overnight, the spike in yields on the 30-year and the 10-year bond, which showed that people were dumping our bonds," he noted. "And from what I understand, this is what forced the hand of this 90-day reprieve now."
Makes sense to me...

Here's that tweet
https://x.com/CGasparino/status/1910031273717871100?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
------------------------
Here's a funny one. Market will rip!
He kinda forgot the "after a self-induced bear market" part.
https://x.com/CGasparino/status/1910030747744059796?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

The official adm position:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-live-updates.html
Excerpt:
Bessent says that Trump was always planning to pull back his sweeping tariff plans for dozens of countries just days after announcing it.
“This was his strategy all along,” Bessent tells reporters at the White House.
“You might even say he goaded China into a bad position,” Bessent says, referring to the fact that China, which imposed retaliatory tariffs, now faces higher U.S. duties while others get a reprieve.
Sounds like a W!

A short while ago, Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for 75 countries.
Across-the-board 10% tariffs will remain in effect for these countries.
However, Chinese tariffs were increased: "Based on the lack of respect that China has shown
to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America
to 125%, effective immediately."
Markets seem to be very pleased with this latest development!
The S&P 500 is currently up 8.00% while the NASDAQ is up 10.16%.
www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/business/reciprocal-tariff-pause-trump/index.html

So it took all of one week for him to buckle under the pressure.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trump-announces-90-day-tariff-pause-for-at-least-some-countries.html
Excerpt:
Trump’s Truth Social post credited his decision to pause the full effect of tariffs on the fact that “more than 75 Countries” have contacted U.S. officials “to negotiate a solution” to trade concerns that he raised in imposing the new duties.
50 countries almost immediately, now just as fast, up to 75. Truly amazing (read, unbelievable).
Not stated is that 90% of those wanting to negotiate (whatever the real number is), are likely to start the negotiations with, "Are you out of your f*cking mind? And oh BTW, that data of yours, ALL wrong bub."
So I'm all for the high hopes, but we saw the effect of the March-to-April can kick, I'm guessing July will feel like deja vu all over again.
It's all opinion. No right or wrong.

Administration finally listened, looks like. Most IG bonds still negative after news. But, perhaps some hope of avoiding recession. And an SP500 bear market.