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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    The debt kept increasing during Drumpf's time in the WH and the GOP thugs happily enabled it. The GOP didn't suddenly discover religion on debt and deficits during Biden.
    This is naked politics and McCarthy does not have the cojones to take a principled stand against the renegades who can throw him out as Speaker. McCarthy has always been a weasel his entire political life. He actually makes the toad McConnell look good.
    The renegades are itching for a showdown...just because and skepticism about the disaster that will unfold with a default. This path by the GOP is going to bite them in the a@@ when there is a GOP President and Dems control one part of Congress.
    All that said, as someone else before commented -- the sole purpose of the GOP is to enrich the top 10% of taxpayers but no question the GOP has done a brilliant job cobbling together a coalition of low IQ sods who actively vote against their own economic interests. The ludicrousness of red states that get more from the federal purse than their contributions to it is tragicomic.
    Dems need to wake up and get to the center of hot button topics to expand the tent.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    Apparently, Larry Summers IS gone.

    How can you tell?
    BTW - Liz looks nice in leather … :)
    I can't tell for sure. But this is 2 weeks gone. And there's no mention of him taking a break, or that he will be back. You know, the boilerplate words: "So-and-so is out today..."
    Liz is hot. Did you watch "Wealthtrack" yet? Savita Subramanian. Engaging and smart, too. She was massaging my Confirmation Bias bone, recommending commodities and energy, at the end. ( my PRNEX and NHYDY. Also, ET--- a midstream LP oil/gas outfit.)
    Side note: I've come across some negative remarks about dealing with the K-1 Tax Form. Relying on my tax preparer, this was my first year with the K-1. She handled it as a matter of routine. Not a wrinkle. A breeze. The only thing is, you can't file early.
  • Seeing red across the board this morning.
    @Mark
    Thank you for kind words. Hopefully the advice on this board will allow you sufficient funds so you can pay his tuition in 18 years!
  • Seeing red across the board this morning.
    @Mark, Congratulation! It is a beautiful thing to welcome a new generation.
    Now is the time to help your son and daughter to get the 529 plan started. Time is on your side for the college fund to compound for next 18 years before withdrawing. You can apply for his/her social security number now and you are all set… College tuition is much higher now than those periods when we went to college. One of our kid graduated without debt while another one is entering graduate school with sufficient 529 fund to cover her schooling.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    The authors’ (Feldstein and Wrobel) research corroborated the theory that more progressive state tax structures cannot achieve redistribution of income in the long run. In states where high income individuals are taxed more heavily, migration increases high earners’ pretax real incomes and lowers pretax incomes of lower income individuals.
    Instead of achieving a long-run redistribution of income, a more progressive tax system distorts economic choices and reduces total real incomes. A change in the progressivity of a state tax structure promotes migration and changes the allocation of resources within the state. As pretax wages of highly skilled individuals rise and wages of low skilled individuals fall, firms are incentivized to reduce the number of higher paying jobs and increase the number of lower paying jobs.
    But you don't have to read the data, research and propoganda online etc....just open your own eyes and observe....I submit to you the State of Illinois...you can hear the whooshing sound of the wealth leaving the state...those with means (and gov't pensions) are leaving in a hurry....Cook County (CHI) has over 200,000 residents leave in the past 3 years...
    I further submit to you that the Bolshevik's in the White House etc are following Lenin's playbook almost to a T....crushing the middle class (the way to crush the bourgeoisie (middle class) is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)...destroy the family, destroy the country...(hmm, sound familiar as to things said allouded to by BLM commentary and viewpoint about the family unit)...divide people on nonsense, corrupt the young, I submit to you the Facebook, Instrgram...deny them gun ownership.
    Ahh...while I 100% agree we should lock all punks, dingbats, crazies, etc who are not licensed to carry the firearms in jail...of course you Bolsheviks/Demorats want our weapons...that is the only way you can achieve your insane goals and control the country.
    Best Regards to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @davidrmoran Interesting game, although I suspect it leaves much stuff out. I played it and was able to cut the deficit significantly, shaving $9 trillion off it, without cutting any programs like Medicare or Social Security, while reducing military spending and raising taxes on people who should have had their taxes raised a long time ago. Even dramatically increasing existing programs or adding new ones like student debt relief still shaved almost $3 trillion in this scenario.
    Yet I don’t think there was a mention of what the future deficit would be after adjusting it for inflation, so we see this bigger number at the game’s end date without considering that GDP and national net worth will also be bigger then after inflation and growth.
    Moreover, the national net worth after deducting all debt at the end of 2022 was $148 trillion. The top 10% of the wealthiest control over 70% of that net worth. To reduce or even eliminate the deficit three things could be done: First, create a tax treaty with other nations requiring extradition of any potential tax evaders to do business with the U.S. Then create a stiff exit tax for leaving the U.S. for incremental dollars above a certain baseline net worth, say, $10 million. Then create a significant wealth tax and raise estate taxes. The wealth tax in the game is I believe based on either the Warren or Biden proposals, but it mainly would apply only to billionaires, a too narrow demographic, and the rates if I recall correctly were low. But without extradition and exit tax measures it would just cause flight to sleazy tax havens.
    Of course, none of these measures or the game’s ideas will ever be implemented, given our current level of political discourse.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    No other country has a concept of debt ceiling as far as I know.
    Live and learn. The EU's concept of a debt ceiling (that's 27 countries) is "enshrined in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) and the 'Fiscal Compact' [Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance]". In March, the EU agreed to continue the agreed upon debt and deficit ceilings.
    Denmark, one of the EU nations, goes further by layering its own absolute (DKK 2 trillion) debt ceiling on top of the EU's percentage limit.
    BBC, What Americans can learn from Denmark on handling debt ceiling crisis
    Kenya also currently has an absolute debt ceiling. It increased its ceiling by 11% (from Sh 9 trillion to Sh 10 trillion) in mid 2022 as a stop-gap. Still,
    By December, Kenya’s total debt stood at Sh9.6 trillion, which was only Sh400 million shy of the borrowing ceiling set by legislators. This effectively meant that the Ruto administration, which came to power after the August election, has had little headroom to borrow for either development or recurrent expenditure.
    https://www.pd.co.ke/news/ruto-cabinet-asks-mps-to-raise-public-debt-cap-to-sh17-trillion-171332/
    It's no wonder that Moody's just today (May 12) downgraded Kenya from B2 to B3.
    Then there's New Zealand. It sets a debt ceiling on a percentage basis, but its rules are complex, taking into consideration the type of spending (operational or capital) and other factors.
    Here's a page discussing how specific countries implement and deal with debt limits. Of note is its observation:
    Other countries have avoided deadlocks through one of these four routes:
    1. The ceiling is intentionally set sufficiently high such that it will not plausibly be crossed.
    2. The law is either amended or suspended during periods of heightened stress necessitating indebtedness.
    3. No punishments are tied to the legislation, meaning states often cross the limit with impunity.
    4. The law was scrapped altogether when it was severely curtailing the government’s policy space.
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/the-us-debt-limit-is-a-global-outlier/
  • James Alpha Funds Trust d/b/a Easterly Total Hedge Portfolio is to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1829774/000158064223002697/easterly-thp_497.htm
    497 1 easterly-thp_497.htm 497
    JAMES ALPHA FUNDS TRUST D/B/A EASTERLY FUNDS TRUST
    Supplement dated May 12, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and
    Statement of Additional Information of the Fund, each dated April 1, 2023
    This Supplement updates and supersedes any contrary information contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information.
    The Board of Trustees of the James Alpha Funds Trust d/b/a Easterly Funds Trust (the “Trust”), based on information provided by Easterly Funds LLC (“Easterly”), has approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (“Plan”) for the above-listed series (the “Fund”) of the Trust. Effective the close of business on May 15, 2023, the Fund will cease selling shares to new investors and the Fund’s investment manager, Easterly, will begin liquidation of the Fund’s investments. Existing investors in the Fund may continue to purchase Fund shares up to the Liquidation Date, as described below. The Fund reserves the right, in its discretion, to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Pursuant to the Plan, the Fund will liquidate its investments and thereafter redeem all its outstanding shares by distribution of its assets to shareholders in amounts equal to the net asset value of each shareholder’s Fund investment after the Fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The Board has determined to close the Fund to new investors in advance of liquidation. Easterly anticipates that the Fund’s assets will be fully liquidated and all outstanding shares redeemed on or about June 12, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). This date may be changed without notice to shareholders, as the liquidation of the Fund’s assets or winding up of the Fund’s affairs may take longer than expected.
    Until the Liquidation Date, you may continue to freely redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the section in the Prospectus entitled “How to Redeem Shares.” Shareholders may also exchange their Fund shares for shares of the same class of any other Fund in the Trust open to new investors, except as described in and subject to any restrictions set forth under “Exchange Privilege” in the Prospectus.
    Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption or exchange is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Dividends and Distributions” and “Tax Consequences” sections in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    As a result of the intent to liquidate the Fund, the Fund is expected to deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its investment portfolio on or about the date of this Supplement and will hold cash and cash equivalents, such as money market funds, until all investments have been converted to cash and all shares have been redeemed. During this period, your investment in the Fund will not experience the gains (or losses) that would be typical if the Fund were still pursuing its investment objective.
    Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares prior to distribution, unless you have previously requested payment in cash.
    ANY LIQUIDATING DISTRIBUTION, WHICH MAY BE IN CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENTS EQUAL TO EACH RECORD SHAREHOLDER’S PROPORTIONATE INTEREST OF THE NET ASSETS OF THE FUND, DUE TO THE FUND’S SHAREHOLDERS WILL BE SENT TO A FUND SHAREHOLDER’S ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT (833) 999-2636.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund at (833) 999-2636.
    ***
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated April 1, 2023. Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • How far have the averages advanced since (edit) their 2022 lows?
    +~9.6% and +~8.11% as of a minute ago ...
    Thanks much. Even I can grasp that. Simply stated. Guess I’m getting a bit unnerved by all the extraneous noise. Added a tad to cash today.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Let’s just fund the IRS! Joe Doe, working for an hourly wage, ain’t the problem. His pay is public record and taxes are withheld automatically by his employer. Let’s be sure those with harder to track income sources (who are in a better position to cheat) are paying their fair share as well. This would go a long way towards closing the gap between spending and income.
    Why Oh why would House Republicans repeal a bill intended to better fund the IRS? ”The Law and Order Party” - Right?
    Republicans Block IRS Funding Bill
    The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated Monday that the (repeal) would eliminate about $71 billion of the total $80 billion that was allocated for the IRS but would reduce tax revenue by about $186 billion, translating to a $114 billion increase in deficits over the next decade.
  • Calls on CDs
    Disclaimer_1: Been investing in CD ladders for about 15 years. I only ever by non-callable and usually go out 3-5 years. And I many times buy CDs on the Secondary Market, but not-so-much in the past several months as the pendulum decisively swung to New Issues.
    ----------------------------------
    To the OP, pretty sure you should expect the majority, if not all of your longer-term, callable CDs to be called in the coming months/years. Just as we were reasonably certain that interest rates would rise this year, I at least am reasonably certain that interest rates will start decreasing in the near future. And, the difference between callable and non-callable is generally not greater than 0.5%.
    ----------------------------------
    On the issue of buying only shorter term CDs of say 2 years...Well, that is, how shall I say, short-sighted, and those investors who want to replace their maturing CDs in 2 years are likely going to be feeling a wee bit of buyer's regret.
    Example using current listing of Fido CDs:
    You are looking at CDs today. You only want non-callable CDs and you only want to go out a max of 2 years. So you buy the best 2-yr, non-callable CD that Fido has to offer at 4.95%.
    In two years it matures and you are looking for another 2-yr, non-callable CD to replace it. In 2 years, you will need to find a 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CD to equal the same rate that you could have had in hand IF you had bought today's best 4-yr, non-callable CD at 4.60%.
    Good luck with that. I'm reasonably certain that 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CDs will NOT be available in May 2025.
    Always best to put together an EXCEL spreadsheet and drop in the rates that are available NOW for respective periods, and determine what rate you will need upon maturing of a shorter-term CD (2 yrs in this example) to meet or exceed the rate of the currently available longer-term CD (4 yrs in this example).
    ----------------------------------
    Disclaimer_2: Future interest rates are usually WAGs.
    BUT, in the last say 6-12 months, it was something short of that as we were reasonably certain they were going UP, and we could even reasonably project where they would peak.
    Likewise, at this point, I at least am reasonably certain that rates will start going DOWN in the near future, but not anywhere near as capable of projecting how low they might go.
    So, my money, in this example, is on buying the 4-yr, 4.60% non-callable CD today as I have little-to-no expectation that a 2-yr, 4.25% non-callable CD will be available in May 2025.
    EDIT: The other argument against buying shorter term CDs, e.g., a current 1-yr, 5.15%, non-callable, is that the best money market funds are paying about the same, with VMRXX currently at 5.03% and FZDXX currently at 4.88%.
    ------------------------------------
    And speaking of potential buyer's regret, recall that 4-yr, 5+%, non-callable CDs were widely available for a brief period not so long ago. Here's hoping that many here participated when we hit peak rates AND thought long-term!
    YMMV.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @Baseball_Fan
    Everytime the taxes for the "wealthy" have went up three things have happened. 1) Economy slows down 2) Both the wealthy and the poor are hurt with the poor being hurt more 3) tax receipts go down.
    Show your data as I've seen the exact opposite. The late 1920s income tax rates had a peak below 30% and we hit the Great Depression, during which the government started to raise taxes for New Deal social programs and the War Effort and we had strong economic growth after they did this. Then in the late 1940s and throughout the 1950s we had a peak tax rate of close to 90% and our economy was booming with many government projects, the GI bill, etc. Tax breaks on the wealthy have not proven to be an effective form of economic stimulus. Trickle down economics is hogwash. Reaganomics is widely known among serious economic circles to be an utter failure and Reagan himself quietly raised taxes to pay the bills.
    image
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Everytime the taxes for the "wealthy" have went up three things have happened. 1) Economy slows down 2) Both the wealthy and the poor are hurt with the poor being hurt more 3) tax receipts go down.
    What the Bolsheviks want is exactly what you see now...defund the police = crime, breakdown in society and chaos. High inflation = tax on everyone. Bat shit crazy monetary and fiscal policy and spending, who cares about the debt limit. the MATH DOES NOT WORK. You can't keep spending into oblivion .
    So we get what you see...chaos...so the Bolsheviks can install their Totalarian govt...just like when the Grifter in the White House says he won't debate...
    Do agree with the fella in Germany...what he said the other day...we need maturity in the USA to resolve this issue...
  • How far have the averages advanced since (edit) their 2022 lows?
    ?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui
    put in ivv and djia and select your start date
    +~9.6% and +~8.11% as of a minute ago ...
  • How far have the averages advanced since (edit) their 2022 lows?
    And yes, hank; S&P 500 from low Oct. 11, 2022 to date at 1:35 pm is about +14.5431%. I used SPY...a different animal.
  • How far have the averages advanced since (edit) their 2022 lows?
    @hank, strange thing about StockCharts is that custom settings carryon for a while, but after some time, they default to 1-year. So, my comment about resetting the date. Good that you could see custom 9/22/22 as intended.