Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show @Observant1, thank you for the great summary on Giroux’s interview.
His timing coming into 2022 is impeccable with his positioning of the portfolio.
He repeated “recession” several times even though he does not believe it. However, moving
10% of fixed income to 5-yr treasury indicated he is seeking something more than merely the higher yield (4.2% as of
12/
14/22). Still he has a healthy % in bank loan and a few investment bonds.
He reduced the overweighting of utility to fund the cyclical stocks including the semiconductors and other quality growth stocks (3-5 years horizon).
Discussion on GE stock helped to clarify why he still holding 3% of it.
Clearly he knows his holdings (40 stocks) well and move in and out based on their valuation.
Still he don’t like energy stocks.
For full disclosure, PRWCX is one of our largest holdings. I will get his book for Christmas.
Classic stock and bond mix no longer makes sense. Do this instead says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder ya, and i'm down -18 percent year-to-date, today, too. and reinvesting junk bond divvies at a current yield of over 10 percent. better than IG for sure. I'll not be waiting for uncle Rick to ring that bell. but i do find him interesting. TUHYX.
Classic stock and bond mix no longer makes sense. Do this instead says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder No doubt short term bonds are paying well. But further out on the curve “plain vanilla” bond funds don’t appear to have fared much better than a diversified mix of equities or many mixed allocation funds. PRGMX, which I’d characterize as holding very high quality bonds of intermediate duration (5-7 years), is down 14.6% YTD. Global bond fund DODLX, which I own, keeps around 50% or more in the U.S. and leans towards higher quality bonds (with some sub-investment grade). It is down 14.45% YTD.
As for allocation funds, a couple 60/40 (bonds/stocks) from TRP sport the following YTD numbers:
PRSIX -17.6% / TRRIX -17%. Even highly esteemed VWINX is off 15% YTD. If you check equity heavier conservative funds like PRWCX and DODBX you’ll find both have held up somewhat better than those bond and allocation funds I cited.
Of course managers can use derivatives to make their bond funds perform a lot better or even buck the trend, as I’ve sure some have done. But for the “plain vanilla” category further out on the curve there’s not a lot to recommend them over equities up to this point. None of this will cut your losses or make you feel better. Just a humble attempt to look at a few categories that longer term oriented investors tend to rely on.
Re Rieder’s suggestion - Note there is an air of market timing in what he says. He’s talking about a temporary shift to fixed income to take advantage of the spike in short term rates. I’d expect Rick to “ring a bell” to announce when the day arrives when we should move out of that defensive position into “growthier” holdings. :)
Most recent YTD numbers from Bloomberg I’ve glanced: Dow -18% / S&P - 25% / NASDAQ - 35%.
While it’s dangerous to try to equate this with another period (No two are the same.) - if you were to overlay this bear decline on top of the ‘07-‘09 bear market, I suspect in both magnitude of losses and duration we’re somewhere around the mid-way point.
The Liz Truss Travesty Becomes Britain’s Humiliation
Bloomberg Wall Street Week 14 oct, 2022:

Bloomberg Real Yield 14 oct, 2022:

Matthews Emerging Markets ex China Active ETF in registration It looks like the Matthews group has been hemorrhaging assets and now manages less (a lot less) money than they did 10 years ago. The company is flailing and throwing all kinds of sh*t at the wall in the hope something will stick. Look at the mass exodus of managers. My opinion, of course, and worth what you just paid for it.
Matthews Asia funds were once appealing options for investors seeking Asian equity exposure.
The firm had deep experience with Asian markets and had several talented mutual fund managers.
Unfortunately, quite a few of these managers exited the company over the past few years.
There has also been some turnover in the executive ranks.
Matthews Asia is floundering.
Classic stock and bond mix no longer makes sense. Do this instead says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder +1.
Matthews Emerging Markets ex China Active ETF in registration It looks like the Matthews group has been hemorrhaging assets and now manages less (a lot less) money than they did 10 years ago. The company is flailing and throwing all kinds of sh*t at the wall in the hope something will stick. Look at the mass exodus of managers. My opinion, of course, and worth what you just paid for it.
Classic stock and bond mix no longer makes sense. Do this instead says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder
Matthews Emerging Markets ex China Active ETF in registration
Element EV & Solar Battery Materials (Lithium, Nickel, Copper, Cobalt) Futures ETF in registration
Nikola: CRIME +1.
foreign dividends: a stinky, poopy discovery The IRS just denied my deduction for foreign taxes that were shown in my brokerage 1099s; I didn't file From 1116. IRS said that those foreign tax credits were just offset by my AMT obligations. I am really far from AMT but did have high tax-exempt interest from private-activity bonds (a change from previous years).
Does anyone know more about this issue? There are AMT-free muni funds too and I can switch to those. Is that the issue, or something else? The amount denied isn't large enough to hire a lawyer.
BTW, as I had paid my taxes due via IRS Direct Pay, so this IRS letter was the only indication for me that my 2021 tax return (paper filing!) was finally processed.
BTW2, I was able to login to my IRS Direct Pay with my old credentials and the new IDme is just optional. I knew its implementation was delayed/suspended but I now got verification.
Nikola: CRIME
The Liz Truss Travesty Becomes Britain’s Humiliation I'm not much for Popes (despite, or maybe because of, having been bred Catholic) but it's hard to beat this:
In 2013, Pope Francis referred to "trickle-down theories" with the following statement:
Some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power and in the sacralized workings of the prevailing economic system.
from
Wickipedia (Emphasis added)
"Crude and Naive". Must have seen Lizard Truss coming.