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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2022/Q3–October 10, 2022)
    To provide some nuance, I will add the folowing excerpt:
    If all of this makes you consider throwing in the towel on active management, you’re not alone. Investors continue to shift money into indexed exchange-traded funds and away from mutual funds. In the Large Growth category, some $16.2 billion has flowed into ETFs in 2022, $8.6 billion of that during the first two months of the third quarter. In the Large Growth mutual fund category, $54.8 billion has fled this year, and $14.5 billion in July and August.
    The big ETF winners, flow-wise, in Large Growth this past quarter have been Vanguard Growth (VUG), with $2.1 billion of inflows, followed by SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (SPYG), with $2 billion. The biggest mutual fund Large Growth outflow losers were T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX), down $3.1 billion, and Harbor Capital Appreciation (HCAIX), down $2.1 billion.
    Some 70 Morningstar mutual fund categories suffered outflows this past quarter, while most ETF categories experienced inflows or only small outflows. While September’s full-month flow numbers aren’t available yet, the mutual fund outflows are part of a longer-term trend that some have dubbed “flowmageddon,” which could have harmful tax effects.
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    I-Bonds rate is still 9.62% for 6 mo if purchased by 10/31/22. Annual limit is $10K/person.
    New rates on 11/1/22 should be lower. Variable inflation has moderated but fixed rate may be raised above 0%. Estimates are 6.278-7.825%.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/209/savings-bonds-6-months-nov?page=3&scrollTo=803
  • Are you checking your portfolio too often?
    @Crash: Voltaire’s Candide and its famous conclusion are quite profound investigations into what we humans can do in the face of a world which is a mean place. Voltaire attacks a philosophy then known as optimism which posited that this is the best of all possible worlds. Candide and his companions experience many horrors (the Lisbon earthquake of 1755, senseless wars, unmitigated violence, the loss of a fortune in gold, etc.) during their whirlwind tour of two continents. The philosopher Pangloss (a straw man mouthing Leibniz’s brand of optimism) is clearly ridiculous; Voltaire intends that we reject what he called « metaphysics, » by which he meant organized religion. « But we must cultivate our garden » comes in response to yet another foolish comment from Pangloss who recommends consulting a highly placed clergyman about the plight of the group of survivors who wind up in Turkey on a small farm. Candide’s comment literally encourages gardening, but more broadly urges us to take care of our side of the street, support our friends and loved ones despite their flaws, and reminds us to keep it simple.
    Voltaire kept meticulous accounts of his business dealings and his gardens at his chateau at Ferney. Maybe he checked his portfolio a lot, it seems likely. Proust, however, was profligate, even going so far as to buy an airplane for his chauffeur with whom he was in love.
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    Sudden gates and/or redemption fees at prime m-mkt funds are more probable than outright failures.
    With government m-mkt funds, that risk is minimal (but not 0).
    If you think about it, mutual funds have no guarantees. The whole system is based on trust on divided responsibilities - portfolio managers, fund administration and custody are by different firms or distinct subsidiaries of the same firms. There are formal audits and periodic SEC reviews. Assumption is that everybody won't be crook working in cohoots. I am surprised how well this system has worked. But still, I am wary of small boutiques, ma-and-pa-and-sons operations where people wear multiple hats and board meetings could be at family breakfasts or dinners.
    Keep in mind that there has been only one hugely spectacular failure in m-mkt funds - Reserve Primary Fund. And that too settled for 99c on $1 (but the money may have been frozen for a while). There were other minor failures but the funds were absorbed or merged away.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_Primary_Fund
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    @Sven et al
    Available money market funds used by many at Fidelity, to park money, are:
    SPAXX = 2.51% yield (no minimum)
    FDRXX = 2.59% yield (no minimum)
    FDZXX = 2.96% yield ($100,000 minimum)

    For FZDXX (2.96% yield), the $100K min is for Taxable accounts only. For IRA's the min = $10K.
  • TBO Capital
    Why don't you all use the private messaging on this site. Easy to use.
    Good luck, Derf
    +1.
  • 2% swr
    @catch22
    >> I presume you're referencing, in part; a non-spousal inheritance of your Roths, that Secure Act provisions require non-spousal inheritance amounts be withdrawn within a 10 year period, but will not be taxed upon withdrawal. As long as the Roth has been in place for 5 years. Yes?
    Sorry I missed your query, but no, or sort of, meaning only that 20y or more ago our trust attorney said 'I don't think I have ever had a client where 2/3 of their total nut had been converted to Roths.'
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    SPRXX = 2.84% 7 day yield (no min)
    If you can gather together $100K for FZDXX, you can immediately pull $90K back out. It requires only $10K to maintain. And in an IRA, its min is $10K to open.
    The next 3 month T-bill has an anticipated yield of 3.221%.
    The next 6 month T-bill has an anticipated yield of 3.839%
    The questions are: how high/fast do you expect MMF rates to rise vs. the fixed rate T-bills, and how valuable is the state tax exemption to you. Also of possible concern is how safe you want your cash to be. T-bills, backed directly by the Treasury, government MMFs through which you hold federally backed paper, or prime MMFs. I consider these all safe, but for some investors the fine shadings are important.
  • TBO Capital
    Guys, for legit investing like notes or fix and flip loans is GROUNDFLOOR; I have invested with them 4 times now. Also FUNDRISE but if you keep it there for a year, when u withdraw after 1 year, 0 fees.
  • Life Estate document, anyone familiar; creating, using, either as Grantee or Grantor ?
    Sources please. The cut and paste section came from:
    https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/michigan-inheritance-laws
    Its inheritance and estate taxes were created in 1899, but the state repealed them in 2019.
    Its estate tax technically remains on the books
    I know my post above wasn't my best writing, but I don't think I wrote anything inconsistent, like saying that a law was both repealed (in 2019) and still on the books.
    It appears the law remains on the books, but that because of the way it is linked to federal estate taxation, the maximum amount of the estate tax is $0. Something like the ACA mandate still being on the books, but the amount of the penalty being set to $0.
    Quoting from a late (Oct) 2019 bill that would have repealed the Michigan state tax but died in the legislature:
    Repeal the law authorizing a Michigan estate tax. For a number of years this tax has not been collected because language in the law links it to a discontinued state estate tax credit in federal law. Should this federal law change the Michigan estate tax could go back into effect.
    https://www.michiganvotes.org/2019-HB-4922
    That's why it matters whether the estate tax was repealed (no longer off the books) or merely dormant. (Think of another old law in Michigan, this one from 1931, that was nearly resurrected when Federal law changed this summer.)
    The more interesting piece IMHO concerns the Lady Bird deed. This piece came from the Rochester Law Center, and as such the errors and omissions on that page are somewhat disappointing.
    https://rochesterlawcenter.com/services/michigan-lady-bird-deed/
    A Lady Bird deed is not a type of quitclam deed (though depending on how it is written, it could be used as one). The salient feature of quitclaim deeds is that they enable the person transferring property to do so while disclaiming any title. That is, "I give all my interest in BlackAcre to A, whatever that interest is, which may be nothing at all. Lots of luck."
    Quitclaim deeds offer no warranties of title, and title companies may offer very limited coverage or none at all if asked to issue a title policy based on one. A ladybird deed may transfer title with warranties in the deed whereby the grantor warrants that he has full ownership of the property at the time of the conveyance
    https://legalbeagle.com/8083490-comparing-deeds-lady-bird-deeds.html
    Most of the advantages stated for the Lady Bird deed (i.e. the ones apart from being able to change beneficiaries) are the same as for the simpler (once and done) non-enhanced life estate deed. IOW, had the Law Center said, rather than a Lady Bird Deed being a type of quitclaim deed that it was a type of life estate deed, it would have been essentially correct. But see below (notable Medicaid difference).
    All life estate deeds, enhanced or not, keep the property out of probate. In this respect, there's nothing extra special about the enhanced (Lady Bird) deed in avoiding Medicaid recovery.
    What differentiates an Enhanced Life Estate Deed from a (nonenhanced) Life Estate Deed is that the grantor retains control over naming beneficiaries in the former. That is sufficient to make the gift (deeding the property to the life tenant and the remainderman) "incomplete".
    Rochester Law Center writes: "a Lady Bird Deed allows for you to qualify for Medicaid benefits while preventing the government from going after your home. " That's misleading. In looking at assets to determine Medicaid eligibility, Michigan doesn't count your home if your equity interest in it is under $636K.
    https://www.medicaidplanningassistance.org/medicaid-eligibility-michigan
    However, and this is where the Lady Bird deed can come into play, any asset that is transferred, including a home, within five years of applying for Medicaid, does count.
    https://www.michiganlawcenter.com/blog/2020/august/transferring-assets-to-qualify-for-medicaid/
    But since the Lady Bird deed is an "incomplete" gift, even though the home is transferred it isn't counted as an asset for Medicaid eligibility purposes.
    Finally, though this has focused on Michigan, it's worth noting that Michigan is one of only five states that allow Lady Bird deeds. There are 30 states (Michigan isn't one of them) that allow TOD deeds.
    https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/lady-bird-deeds.html
    https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/avoid-probate-book/chapter5-1.html
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2022/Q3–October 10, 2022)
    I follow a bunch of intermediate core and intermediate core-plus bond funds via Portfolio Manager.
    These funds include DODIX, BCOIX, BAGIX, FBND, VBTLX, VCPAX, WACPX, etc.
    YTD returns range from -13.25 (DODIX) to -21.51 (WACPX).
    Twelve month returns range from -13.37 (DODIX) to -21.39 (WACPX).
    Some bond investors use the Bloomberg "Agg" as a benchmark.
    VBTLX tracks the "Agg" and has returned: -14.81 YTD, -14.61 for 12 months.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2022/Q3–October 10, 2022)
    Not something I pay much attention to. Thought it interesting that DODIX “made the cut” (ranked high) in their top income funds category. Down -13.25% YTD and -13.62% over 1 year. Makes you wonder what kind of returns its competition is posting.
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    @Sven et al
    Available money market funds used by many at Fidelity, to park money, are:
    SPAXX = 2.51% yield (no minimum)
    FDRXX = 2.59% yield (no minimum)
    FDZXX = 2.96% yield ($100,000 minimum)
  • TBO Capital
    Hey Guys, I found this intelligence agency when I searched google for investment fraud/scam; they came up and called me saying I had inquired about their services;
    they are CNC Intelligence based in Orem, Utah; Their website is CNCIntel.com
    their # is 202-519-9380; What they told me is they have intelligence and contacts everywhere and they can find the scammer and inform us scammer's name, address, contact. CAN SOMEONE PLEASE VET THEM OUT BEFOREHAND; I DON'T KNOW HOW TO VET;
  • Life Estate document, anyone familiar; creating, using, either as Grantee or Grantor ?
    Hi @msf
    Thank you for your time and effort with the reply.
    I'd already done research on this topic, and you've added further to the research.
    Aside from any other conditions/circumstances; it appears that a Life Estate establishes a cost basis for the remainderman upon the death of the Grantor. Obviously, being of benefit; if and when the remainderman chooses to sell.
    And if one chooses to use T.O.D.'s and/or P.O.D. 's for various other financial assets to help smooth some account(s) transactions upon death.
    I've added some additional information regarding Michigan in particular.
    Hopefully, others may have benefit with this topic.
    Regards,
    Catch
    This method also exists in Michigan:
    *** What is the Lady Bird law in Michigan?
    In Michigan, a Lady Bird Deed (also known as a Ladybird Deed or Enhanced Life Estate Deed) is a type of Quitclaim Deed that allows you, the creator, to transfer your property upon your death to a named beneficiary without having to go through the expensive and time consuming Probate process.
    --- A copy/paste regarding Michigan estate/inheritance:
    Does Michigan Have an Inheritance Tax or Estate Tax?
    Michigan does not have an inheritance tax. Its inheritance and estate taxes were created in 1899, but the state repealed them in 2019.
    Its estate tax technically remains on the books, but since 2005 there has been no mechanism for it to collect it. That’s because Michigan’s estate tax depended on a provision in the Internal Revenue Tax Code allowing a state estate tax credit against the federal estate tax. When congress eliminated that credit in 2005, it effectively killed Michigan’s estate tax.
    Note that estate and inheritance taxes are different things. Estate taxes, where they exist, are taken out of the deceased’s estate immediately after their passing. Inheritance taxes, conversely, are imposed upon the deceased’s heirs after they have received their inheritance.
    Michigan also does not have a gift tax. Remember, the federal gift tax is applied once you give any individual more than $16,000 in a single calendar year. Give any less than that, and there is no federal gift tax whatsoever.
    Other Necessary Tax Filings for Estates
    Inheritance taxes: Michigan does not have an inheritance tax, with one notable exception. It’s only applied to an estate’s beneficiaries if the decedent passed away on or before Sept. 30, 1993.
    Both federal and state income tax returns: The estate of the deceased must file individual state and income tax returns one final time, due by the tax deadline in the year immediately following their death.
    Federal estate tax: The decedent’s estate may be responsible for paying the federal estate tax if the estate is valued at more than $12.06 million ($24.12 million for married couples). If so, the estate will be taxed on the overage, not the entire value. Federal estate taxes are due nine months after the date of death.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2022/Q3–October 10, 2022)
    @yogibb, thanks for the summary. Noted that a number of AQR alternative funds such as QMHNX, have done well this year. Even with their investor shares, the investment minimum is $1M for aggregate investors, not so much for individual investors. Pimco is much more assessable.
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    @Gary1952, great point. The brokered CD market is illiquid and the broker would try to sell it on best-effort basis.
    So, best to hold brokered CDs to maturity. If there is any doubt about that, stick with liquid T-Bills/Notes.
  • TBO Capital
    Let's all detail out the steps that we have taken and suggest other steps that should be taken.
    Maybe if we raise enough stink to the SEC or the State of NY or the NYPD or the FTC or the FBI maybe something will happen.
    Here are the steps and results I have taken so far:
    Contacted several attorneys and recovery agencies....I am still vetting them, but I have gotten good information from one attorney. He is a former USMC and spent 14 years with NYPD in Brooklyn. 10 years with a unit: Street Crime Suppression. He suggested I call NYPD since it looks like these criminals operated in NYC. He said
    "call NYPD Midtown North Precinct 212 767 8400. Tell them what has happened, the FBI has been notified and ask if they can check and see if there is anyone from that company still at that address. It is an apartment building per picture on Google."
    I called NYPD but they were not very helpful. The detective I spoke with just kept saying to call my local police (I am local to Dallas TX).
    But I finally pressured him for a name and he gave me the name of Detective Criollo. Corillo is in charge of cyber crime and fraud for that division. So I will call him on Monday.
    I have filled out the form at IC3 and also with the FTC. No response from either yet. I need to contact the SEC on Monday.
    I have contacted the 2 banks that I used to wire and send the checks out (so pissed) and they have started their steps. They are trying to recall the wires (obviously the money is gone but that is their process) and they are also filing complaints with the receiving banks for the wires and the checks. I also asked my banks for all original documentation for the wires and checks. Just so I have all the paperwork.
    It looks like my wires went to 2 different banks. Fifth Third Bank and Wells Fargo Bank. I will try to contact both of them and raise a stink.
    If I think of more I will post. Sorry again to all who have been victimized. We could all come together and hire a lawyer or a Private Investigator? Just thinking outloud......
  • Tech Analysis at Stockcharts
    Mark,
    Which ones do you use? I’m just curious, I have looked at these pages from time to time but really don’t see anything that is actionable. I mean, look at their #1 guy: https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832
    I do see where he says “look at chart 60”. (https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5). But not the other 100?
  • “The Complete History of Bear Markets” (Article)
    PV does a nice job of Max DD and recovery:
    Here the S&P 500 since 1985...select "drawdown" tab to see this information.
    S&P 500 Since 1985
    Should look like this:
    image