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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Market on the move up as of 11 CDT
    Is this a selling or buying day for you ? I'll be watching as for myself.
  • Huge bump-up today, but...oct. 3rd, '22.
    It is still early but so far biggest up volume vs down volume day since end of December 2018. That one in December 2018 launched the 2019 bull market.
  • CGM Funds to liquidate
    I echo all of the above statements. Michael Price ran the first mutual fund I bought (Mutual Shares) in 1989. I hung on to it and Mutual Discovery until David Winter left. The capital gains were a problem, but not unlike other long term positions in individual stocks. But with the latter if you pick correctly, it is unlikely they will go out of business (ie BRK.B)
    I was fortunate enough to somehow avoid Bruce, and while I bought the hometown boy Nicholas ( we lived in Milwaukee then) I left when Al turned it over to his son. Nepotism in investment management is never good.
    It is too bad that funds that liquidate can't just transfer the positions to the sharehoders.
  • "Other Investing?" Or Politics? Money is involved. EU/N.I. "Protocol."
    "...The powersharing institutions at Stormont (Site of local N.I. Assembly) have been dormant for months due to a DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) protest against the terms of the protocol, which created trade barriers on goods being shipped from Britain to Northern Ireland...."
    ************************************
    ************************************
    I ask: WHY? How did THAT happen? ... UNLESS goods are shipped first to Irish (EU) ports and then trans-shipped across the already very porous border between The Republic and Northern Ireland. That's a known issue.
    Solution: assuming we are talking about marine transport: simply sail from England or Scotland or Wales DIRECTLY to Belfast or Londonderry. Duh. Geniuses in charge.
    British goods which land in the Republic before reaching a destination up North? Well..... The Brits should have thought about that prospect before Brexit got underway. The Republic and Northern Ireland both have agreements in place between themselves, and those must not be rescinded. The Good Friday Accords are to be honored. Period. There's too much history to remember, too much blood shed. That Peace Accord came at a high price.
    So...... The Republic is in the EU. Northern Ireland is not---- even though a majority up there voted to REMAIN. (As did Scotland and Gibraltar, too---and Gibraltar by an overwhelming number.)
    How to get goods into N.I. from the Republic overland while honoring the exclusivity of the EU single Market but also observing existing agreements between the two entities??? And if there are "barriers" now, since Brexit, on goods being shipped from Britain to Northern Ireland, does that mean that for the purposes of commerce, the entire island of Ireland is being treated as a single whole? A sticky wicket. After all, the passports all say: "Great Britain AND Northern Ireland." You can't have one part without the other.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/10/04/truss-restore-north-assembly-and-executive-now/
    NO EU markings anymore.
    image
    On the other hand:
    image
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    @yogibearbull, theoretically even $1 cash would have tainted any exchange of Energy stock for BRK stock to make the entire exchange taxable. He could have taken all stock and later sold some but that would have been seen as future CEO cashing out. One of the less discussed insider trading is how much MSFT stock Nadella sells.
  • Huge bump-up today, but...oct. 3rd, '22.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp 500 futures
    Future + 1.5%
    Be careful could be bear trap
    No pivot plans but stocks maybe hyperbolic
    Maybe leg up before next leg down to 3500s 3400s
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-greg-abel-stock-warren-buffett-51664834938?mod=bol-social-tw
    "Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B +2.16% Vice Chairman Greg Abel, the likely successor to CEO Warren Buffett, bought about $68 million of the company’s shares last Thursday in what appears to be his first purchases of Berkshire stock since he assumed the position in 2018.
    In several Form 4 filings Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Abel disclosed that he purchased 168 Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK/A, BRK/B) Class A shares through the Gregory Abel Revocable Trust on behalf of his wife, children, and other family members...."
    I don't understanding his strategy. If I understand, he first took huge amount of cash ($870 million?) for his stake in BRK subsidiary, paid tax, and bought BRK stock on the open market with small fraction ($68 million?). He could have just exchanged his subsidiary-stake into BRK tax free and then could have gifted BRK stock to any of his family trusts. May be there is more than what is reported. May be he couldn't get partial cash and partial BRK stock.
  • Commentary
    This fantastic ride for I-Bonds started on Nov 1, 2021. There have been skeptics all along - from "too good to be true", to "this cannot last", to "they may be bad few years from now", to "it is only for $10K/$20K/$25K", etc.
    Well, enjoy the ride, and if it ends, sell in a year, or two, or three...with penalty for 3-mo interest (-:)
    I got on it as soon as Treasury Direct could confirm my new account (by 12/2021).
  • Commentary
    "These were not a good investment starting in 2003 or so until inflation showed up in 2021."
    I guess it depends on one's perspective.
    I consider I Bonds to just be a cash substitute.
  • Stock and Bond Bears of 2022
    $VIX was basically flat on Thursday and Friday. VIX watchers are puzzled that it hasn't reached the high levels of previous market lows. So, some are saying that this isn't the market low yet, but other say it may be different this time, see next.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55512620048
    Why different? In relative terms, bonds are more depressed than stocks. Bond losses are historic, while stock losses are far-far from the worst (but painful, yes). So, bond volatility is very high as seen in bond volatility MOVE. But daily changes are hard to explain. MOVE was very high on Wednesday and Thursday on the UK bond/gilt crisis.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE?p=^MOVE&.tsrc=fin-srch
    Bounce today is also hard to explain. Things looked quite negative on Friday and over the weekend when the media was going crazy with rumors about the collapse of Swiss CS (as for coincidences, its Chairman is named Lehmann), and possible bond and/or stock crash, but what do we get? A bounce! US stock futures this evening are also up. This may be a dollar-relief bounce. Have the clouds cleared? No.
    https://www.cmegroup.com/
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p51598651421
  • Stock and Bond Bears of 2022
    Thanks. So, I guess we could say 2022 is unprecedented, given we aren’t in 1930s depression.
    I was hoping somebody would comment on why VIX fell on Friday when market fell quite a bit. Is that one of the set ups for today’s bounce. Any thoughts?
  • Stock and Bond Bears of 2022
    In 2022, both stocks and bonds had bear markets simultaneously. This caused heavy losses in allocation/balanced portfolios as well as risk-parity portfolios. Bonds failed to moderate declines due to stocks and, instead, contributed significantly to portfolio losses. Reasons were many - rapid Fed tightening, strong dollar, high inflation, post-pandemic fragile economies, recession fears, Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain disruptions, chaos in oil/gas markets, etc. Purpose here is to record how bad things were by 2022/Q3.
    Allocation/balanced portfolios were the 2nd worst with -21% 2022YTD (the record was -27.3% for full 1931). Other bad (full) years with double-digit % declines were 1930 (-13.3%), 1974 (-14.7%) and 2008 (-13.9%). Table below is from Twitter LINK1
    Risk-parity portfolio performance was among the worst in history. These portfolios try to equalize volatilities of stock and bond portions and then use leverage. Twitter LINK2
    There is growing appreciation for multi-asset funds that include stocks-bonds-alternatives. Prominent examples of these are FMSDX, VPGDX. These have to be battle-tested in future, but by 2022/Q3, their performance was FMSDX -16.80%, VPGDX -16.12% and that compared well with traditional moderate-allocation index fund VBINX -20.85% (active moderate-allocation funds were around this).
    It was bad, but far from the worst year for SP500. Twitter LINK3
    Image with 60-40 Table https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeJ8OKuXwAMqguu?format=png&name=small
    image
  • Commentary
    Just to expand on my post, I need a fixed rate of at least 1.5% so I am not in the hole if inflation goes back to 2% by end of 2023 and stays there for another 20-30 yrs. Otherwise, I will buy in January (already used 2022 limit) knowing I am likely withdrawing the money as soon as I hit the penalty free 5 yr mark or sooner. The penalty is the first three months of interest, which means I am likely giving back the highest interest. These were not a good investment starting in 2003 or so until inflation showed up in 2021. “Do not fight the Fed” means do not go overboard with IBonds.
  • 2% swr
    If the SWR is only 1.9%, why not just buy an annuity that would guarantee much higher payouts?
  • 2% swr
    Explanation of “SWR” from the prospectus of QREARX
    “Payments” reflect an assumed investment return of 4%. If the investment performance of the Account is constantly equal to the assumed investment return of 4% in a given year, a contract owner’s income payment in the following year would not change. If investment performance is 10% or 3% in a given year, income payments in the following year would increase by approximately 6% or decrease by approximately 1%, respectively.
  • 2% swr
    +1 msf Better adjectives would include traditional, time-honored, customary, industry-standard or preferred !
  • Devesh Shah's Article on RE Funds
    Interval-funds is newer structure with some elements of CEFs, OEFs, ETFs. There are several dozen such funds now. Barron's has a weekly list of these. They are unlisted (on exchanges), so must be bought through brokerages/advisors; there may be accreditation/eligibility requirements. Limited optional redemptions are offered (typically, up to 5% of AUM quarterly). It may be a good structure for illiquid stuff, but one has to deal with high ERs, access limitations and almost no trading (roach-motel analogy comes to mind).
    BTW, TIAA T-REA/QREARX is not an interval-fund. It has Liquidity Guarantee from TIAA, and T-REA pays for that as part of its ER. While there is a once per quarter withdrawal limitation, there is no limitation on the amount withdrawn. In fact, 2 successive withdrawals can be days apart if timed properly at quarter end and start. Also there are limitations on the account size but there are many ways to bypass those (systematic investments, rollovers, using TIAA advisors).
    https://www.tiaa.org/public/investment-performance/investment/profile?ticker=41091375
  • Devesh Shah's Article on RE Funds
    I was trying to understand how the seemingly open-end funds listed in this month's Commentary article are not for sale in the same way that close-end funds do trade on equity markets. The following explanation on Schwab's website cleared things up for me:
    "Interval funds are not available for purchase by individual investors.
    Interval funds are closed-end funds that offer daily purchases and redeem shares by periodically offering to repurchase a certain portion of shares from shareholders (“tenders” or “redemptions”). Rules and regulations related to interval funds enable fund companies to create portfolios with less capital volatility while holding a greater percentage of less-liquid, longer-term investments, often with higher risk-return opportunities than may be readily achieved in open-end mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
    Although interval fund purchases resemble open-end mutual funds in that their shares are typically continuously offered and priced daily, they differ from traditional closed-end funds in that their shares are not sold on a secondary market. Instead, periodic repurchase offers are made to shareholders by the fund. The fund will specify a date by which shareholders must accept the repurchase offer. The actual repurchase will occur at a later, specified date. If repurchase requests exceed the number of shares that a fund offers to repurchase during the repurchase period, repurchases are prorated (reduced by the same percentage across all trades) prior to processing. In such event, shareholders may not be able to sell their expected amount, and would potentially experience increased illiquidity and market exposure, which could increase the potential for investment loss."
    FWIIW, I own QREARX in my retirement account at TIAA. It's up about 12% YTD, offering nice ballast.