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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    @AndyJ, I was responding your comment while commenting on a broader context. Sorry that I should have link to your earlier post. In the last few months, the 1 and 2 yr treasury’s have been volatile, especially in March with the SVB and Signature. There was only 2 days when 2 yr Treasury went over 5.0% in March and it stays below that ever since.
    The inverted yield curve makes prediction challenging beyond 2 years. As for fixed income investing, I like these bond funds:
    Vanguard short term treasury index, ETF, VGSH, Avg effective maturities -2.0 years, 30 days SEC yield - 4.43%.
    Taking on a bit more on credit risk,
    Vanguard short term corporate index, ETF, VCSH. Avg effective maturities - 3.0 yr, 30 days SEC yield - 5.22%.
    I like your approach for potential cap gain for longer duration bond finds such as BND and BOND. Since the beginning of this year, I have invested back into BND and DODIX on dollar cost verage basis. If the FED is near the end of rate hike, bonds in general will do okay. If the FED starts to cut rate, the intermediate-term bonds will be in good position to have good capital gain.
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    None of the talking heads ever ask about rescinding the 2017 tax cuts for those who don't need them.
    +1.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Intermediate duration is doing pretty well recently ... in funds. And, @Sven, if you were responding to my older post, I think my language wasn't clear enough: I realize 5% in a 2y is not happening. The point is that under more normal circumstances, the 2y runs fairly closely along with the Fed rate, and we are far from normal circumstances.
    A 1y in the high 4's (~ 4.8 now), though, is pretty attractive for part of an FI portfolio if you assume short rates will be falling over time, and even 4.02 for a 2y wouldn't be all that bad under those circumstances. A combination of some HTM T's of 1y or longer (including some higher-yielding shorter term T's for current safe yield) with a fund or funds for good yield and possible cap gains, or at least limited risk of loss, wouldn't be a bad approach.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Good interview:
    1. He believes FED will pause after May3rd FOMC meeting and holds the rate above 5% for a bit longer than people think; perhaps into 2025.
    2 FED is losing money by holding long dated treasury yielding 2% while many are paying 4% today. FED is not buying more and let the rest mature and rolling off their book.
    3. Mentioned that the FED made the mistake (QE and zero interest rate policy) and now trying to contain inflation that they created when they pumped too much money into people during the pandemic. Vast consumption post-pandemic caused high inflation. (Think the exact root causes are more complex than just the consumer driven event)
    4. Large banks are doing fine through this turmoil but he believes there will be more consolidation and regulations just as the time period of S&L crisis.
    5. He believes US financial system is strong and recommends investing in S&P 1500 that covers large-, mid-, and small-caps stocks. (Noted that large cap tech stocks are reporting good earnings, and that may not be the case for the smaller caps. Also the earning expectation has been guided downward, not the other way around)
    6. Also he like bonds in general, but he like stocks better for the long term
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Next week, the FED is likely to hike another 25 bps rate. In light of the banking turmoil, that may be the last rate hike the rest of the year. I think it is too optimistic to expect the FED to cut rate soon unless the economy falls into s severe recession.
    I think that's right. About the rest of your post:
    I'm holding intermediate-term junk.
    Effective duration on PRCPX is down to 3.41 years. I just checked. The portfolio manager has moved shorter than before. Yield = 6.03%.
    TUHYX effective duration =4.15 years. Yield = 6.62%.
    I'm still enjoying the ride. Share price has crept up, too.
    Source: Morningstar.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    I was personally affected when in 2015 Prospect Medical Holdings ( owned by Leonard Green a PE firm) bought our CT hospital after two previous publicly traded companies "suitors" ( hoping to buy both hospitals in town) had been chased off by the left wing Democratic Governor. The hospital was close to going under.
    The two previous offers were to build an entirely new hospital and combine both institutions, so they would not longer undercut each other in our small city. These offers were far superior and could have been much better monitored because they involved public companies and a pension fund. Unfortunately, the CT governor was beholden to our hospital union and threw up all sorts of crazy conditions, so they backed out.
    We got all sorts of promises about capital infusions etc from Prospect but none materialized.
    We sold our practice to the hospital/Prospect in 2018. At the physician level Prospect was fairly benign, although they refused to buy any new equipment like scanners and computers. I retired, in 2019 after 40 years of practice that I loved, because the electronic medical record required me to work to 9PM just entering data. They refused to pay $20 an hour to hire a scribe to help me. It was apparently far more efficient to make a physician do the work of a clerk. Both of my replacements have quit in less than a year.
    Since then, Leonard Green had Prospect to borrow $1.2 Billion in 2019. Prospect paid Green and the chief executive a $675 million dollar dividend. Prospect CEO alone got $90 million. To pay the loan back, Prospect sold all their hospitals to Medical Properties Trust (MPW) and then leased them back. By 2021 they had stop paying rent, and MPW stock is down to $8 from $25.
    Two Prospect hospitals in Delaware ( one the only source of care for 80,000 people I think) and three in Texas have closed completely. Rhode Island AG refused to let them sell the two there until they put up $80 million in escrow.
    MPW is unloading the CT hospitals to Yale New Haven Hospital for the amount it paid for them in 2020, because Yale doesn't want the other big CT system, Hartford Hospital to get them. The hospitals in Delaware and Texas are closed for good.
    As I have posted before, ProPublica has done an excellent series on Prospect documenting the millions Green got, but Prospect didn't have cash to buy gas for the ambulances.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/rich-investors-stripped-millions-from-a-hospital-chain-and-want-to-leave-it-behind-a-tiny-state-stands-in-their-way
    Another excellent source on the abuses of PE I have found is
    https://pestakeholder.org/
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    TNR: "Republicans also want work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Adults without children must fulfill work requirements up to the age of 56, overturning current law that has the threshold at age 49. Not only are such cuts punitive in nature, but they effectively leave people more vulnerable to precarity."
    The objective and the results are pretty clear: throw more people off these programs. The estimate in the Moody's piece shows it would "save" $120 billion over the ten year time frame.
    Meanwhile the MSM continues to accept and parrot the GQP framing. None of the talking heads ever ask about rescinding the 2017 tax cuts for those who don't need them.
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    For some folks the "theater" could cost them their lives if McCarthy et al have their way: https://newrepublic.com/post/172066/house-gops-debt-ceiling-plan-calls-medicaid-snap-work-requirements
    On Medicaid, Republicans want recipients to fulfill certain income and work thresholds. If they don’t, states could kick them off their health insurance plans. A Congressional Budget Office report estimated that Medicaid work requirements would cause two million people to lose health coverage.
    Republicans also want work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Adults without children must fulfill work requirements up to the age of 56, overturning current law that has the threshold at age 49. Not only are such cuts punitive in nature, but they effectively leave people more vulnerable to precarity. The less we support people preemptively, the higher the costs will be if they fall through the cracks.
  • Do You Have Gun Stocks in your Funds?
    The cite given in the article, gunfreefunds.org, is under the As You Sow Invest Your Values umbrella that I've suggested before.
    In calling out Lockheed Martin (LMT), it seems the writer is conflating two different though related issues: military weapons manufacturing and civilian firearms manufacturing. If your concern is about companies involved with the leading cause of death of children in the US, then look at the list of gun free funds.
    According to Money Magazine, there are only two publicly traded US companies that manufacture (civilian guns): Smith & Wesson (SWBI) and Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR), though American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) is the parent company of Smith & Wesson.
    https://money.com/avoid-gun-stocks-investing-advice/
    There are many other gun manufacturers, but they tend to be private. Here's a list of the top 25 firearm manufacturers. It includes familiar names like Colt (Colt CZ Group SE, traded on the Prague stock exchange), Beretta (privately owned, Italian parent), and Glock Ges.m.b.H (privately owned).
    https://orchidadvisors.com/top-25-largest-firearm-manufacturers-of-2021/
    GunFreeFunds takes ownership a step further (as noted in the Kiplinger piece) by considering parent companies of privately owned manufacturers. For example, it looks out for ownership of Colt CZ Groupe SE (CZG). Here's its whole list of companies it looks for:
    https://gunfreefunds.org/how-it-works
    M* has an article similar to Kiplingers.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1133372/how-to-find-gun-stocks-in-your-fund-portfolios
    It offers its own sampling of gun free funds
    image
    If you're interested in avoiding companies involved in weapons of war (military contractors, munitions manufacturers, nuclear arms manufacturers, etc.), Invest Your Values provides the site weaponsfreefunds.org.
  • First Republic Down Over 40% Today After Massive Drop in Assets
    There were 11 banks in the attempted private rescue of $FRC via deposit infusions (that didn't work):
    Gr 1, $5 billion: $BAC, $C, $JPM, $WFC
    Gr 2, $2.5 billion: $GS, $MS
    Gr 3, $1 billion: $BK, $PNC, $STT, $TFC, $USB
    From this list, serious contenders now seem JPM (Gr 1), PNC (Gr 3), BAC (Gr 1), USB (Gr 3). We should know by Sunday Noon/PM.
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    "Now you're going all metaphysical on us"
    @msf- no sir, not really- you nicely answered my question (at 12:37): "CDs from the assumed bank are separately insured until the earliest maturity date after the end of the six-month grace period....
    ... before I asked it at 12:39. Just a timing thing. Stop doing that- it's very confusing. :)
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    There is the POD trick. Each CD with a POD beneficiary is separately covered. So, retitle one of the CDs with a POD, or CD1 with POD1, CD2 with POD2, etc. Note that POD would kick in only if one dies. Bank may need the Social Security number of the POD beneficiary.
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    Continuing from @hank's US Bank source:
    CDs from the assumed bank are separately insured until the earliest maturity date after the end of the six-month grace period. CDs that mature during the six-month period and are renewed for the same term and in the same dollar amount (either with or without accrued interest) continue to be separately insured until the first maturity date after the six-month period.
    Similar information is contained in an old 2010 press release from the FDIC.
    https://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consumer/news/cnsum10/having_deposits_at_two_banks.html
  • New I-Bond Rate 4.30%, 5/1/23
    On the last cycle, the Treasury said that you wouldn't get the old rate if you purchased savings bonds on Oct 30th (Mon) or 31st. Now it is saying much the same thing:
    When did I need to complete my I bond purchase to receive the initial rate of 6.89 percent?
    If you were buying in TreasuryDirect, you needed to complete your purchase and receive a confirmation e-mail by Thursday, April 27, 2023, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/help-center/savings-bond-faqs/
    How does a financial institution ask you to lend it money (make a deposit, buy a savings bond, etc.) without telling you (either in numbers or by formula) how much it will pay you for that loan? Maybe that's why the figure was released early. Though by that reasoning it should have been released yesterday morning.
  • What's in your sweep account - First Republic edition
    The SEC writes in its Investor Bulletin "Bank Sweep Programs",
    If you have more than $250,000 in cash in your broker-dealer’s bank sweep program, you may want to consider:
    • Public Information about the health of the bank.
      You may want to take advantage of the financial and other information available to consumers on FDIC’s website at https://banks.data.fdic.gov/bankfind-suite/bankfind [corrected]. One relevant consideration when assessing the health of the bank may be the percentage of deposits derived from concentrated sources such as brokered deposits or one or more bank sweep arrangements.
    • Your broker-dealer’s affiliation with the bank.
      Your broker-dealer could choose not to limit or end a relationship with an affiliated bank that experiences financial difficulties, even if doing so would be in the best interests of broker-dealer’s customers.
    Brokers using affiliated banks include among others, Schwab (Charles Schwab Bank, Charles Schwab Premier Bank, Charles Schwab Trust Bank, TD Bank, TD Bank USA), E*Trade (self-directed accounts are limited to Morgan Stanley Bank and Morgan Stanley Private Bank; other accounts also use Citibank), and Merrill (Bank of America, Bank of America, Calif.; qualified Merrill retirement accounts may also use other banks)
    Other brokerages do not have affilliated banks. Vanguard is only now beginning to roll out a couple of FDIC-insured products, Vanguard Cash Deposit (sweep account) and Vanguard Cash Plus Account. But those are pilot programs open by invitation only. Fidelity offers a bank sweep program with slightly different banks for its CMA accounts and for its IRA accounts for its IRA accounts.
    Fidelity shows that it uses First Republic Bank, but that the bank is now unavailable in its program. According to Fidelity, that means only that it cannot add new money to First Republic (or presumably its successor bank?). This seems reasonable and responsible, as the moneys deposited there are below the FDIC limit and pulling money out would simply exacerbate the run on the bank. (First Republic is also on Merrill's list of banks for qualified retirement accounts.)
    Notable also is that Huntington National Bank is on Fidelity's IRA list of banks but not on its CMA list of banks. Recent change? I don't know. Huntington National Bank is the principal subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares, listed a month ago as a vulnerable bank. More recently, the bank said that it was working to shore up its assets and provided figures to substantiate that.
    So long as one's cash in a bank is below the FDIC limit, I don't think there's any reason to be concerned about losing money. The 2014 SEC warning about bank risks due to concentrated sources seems prescient.
  • New I-Bond Rate 4.30%, 5/1/23
    I am just rolling maturing 3m T-Bill (5/4/23) into 3m T-Bill auction Monday (5/1/23) - both will settle on 5/4/23. 3m is still benefitting from wide 1m-3m spread on debt-ceiling concerns.
    I am keeping existing I-Bonds and 5-yr TIPS for now, but not adding more. The new fixed rate of 0.90% was higher than expected.
    Unclear whether the early release of I-Bond rate on Friday, 4/28/23 was a leak or a mistake in setting up its embargoed release. I had marked Monday, 10am, 5/1/23 on my calendar and I was very surprised when the info came on Friday.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    Raiding has been going on for a long time. Firms have just increased in size and political/economic influence and have benefited from an utter lack of accountability and an uneven playing field. The 80s films Wall Street addressed raiding where a still viable airline company Blue Star is to be chopped up and sold for parts:
  • New to brokered CD's
    I had a 4% "brokered" CD mature yesterday, and I chose to reinvest the principal into a new 5% "brokered" CD. As long as I can get a guaranteed 5% interest on CDs, they will continue to be a very viable investment option for this retired investor. I have chosen to set up a laddering system, focusing on short term CDs of 6 monts to 1 year, so I am having CDs mature frequently, giving me the options of how to invest my cash.
  • Money Stuff, by Matt Levine: First Republic- April 27
    /4
    And:
    A defendant in the case, who spoke on condition of anonymity, denies paying bribes—his firm paid Helsinge “consultancy fees”—but says that exchanging information on rival bids and tenders was “the way of doing business” in South America at the time.
    Ah, yes, great, great.
    But the other part of the Businessweek story is that this story of corruption and bribery — and Morillo’s instant messages allegedly proving it — fell into the hands of David Boies, the famous American lawyer, who saw that Morillo and his clients had stolen billions of dollars from Venezuela and decided to try to get that money for himself:
    Excited by the evidence in their possession, various combinations of Boies, [Morillo’s rival Wilmer] Ruperti, Blondie (the private investigator) and [investor Bill] Duker (the moneyman) met over the summer of 2017 in various offices and on Duker’s 230‑foot sailboat, Sybaris, named for an ancient Greek city famous for its excess. …
    First they needed to persuade the Maduro administration to let them bring a claim on PDVSA’s behalf. … Ruperti introduced Boies and Duker to Nelson Martinez, Venezuela’s newly installed oil minister, and Reinaldo Muñoz Pedroza, the country’s attorney general. On July 12, 2017, the parties came to an agreement: Blondie, Duker and the lawyers would get 66% of the proceeds, leaving 34% for PDVSA.
    So they set up an entity — PDVSA US Litigation Trust — to sue Morillo and his clients in Florida federal court, and to pay any winnings two-thirds to the lawyers and one-third to PDVSA. They sued, and the defendants’ first line of defense was, basically, “look, you say that we stole billions of dollars from PDVSA, but why do you get to sue? You aren’t PDVSA; you’re some weird new trust. If we stole from PDVSA, let PDVSA sue us.”
    Back in court in Miami, before the proceedings could turn to the matter of whether Helsinge and its customers had committed any crimes, Boies needed to demonstrate that the trust had standing—the legal right to bring a case. In most lawsuits, an injured party files a complaint and the two sides argue over its merits. Here you had an opaque New York vehicle claiming to represent Venezuela’s state oil company, which itself was controlled by a corrupt dictator subject to sanctions. Beyond that, it was unclear from the preliminary filings who controlled the trust and who stood to benefit. In July 2018 the defendants filed a motion to have the case dismissed on the grounds that the trust was illegitimate.
    This defense was helped by the fact that nobody from PDVSA could really come to court to explain that the trust was legitimate, because (1) Venezuela was subject to increasingly strict US sanctions that made it hard for Boies to work with PDVSA and (2) the Venezuelan government didn’t make it particularly easy either:
    What followed was a kind of courtroom farce, as Boies Schiller Flexner’s increasingly desperate efforts to demonstrate the trust’s bona fides fell apart under scrutiny. Defense lawyers sought to depose Venezuelan signatories to the litigation agreement among the various parties, but none could be pinned down. One had simply vanished. Another, Martinez, the oil minister, had recently been arrested in Venezuela and charged with corruption. “Jailed? Did I hear jailed?” the judge asked, trying to keep up. When PDVSA’s general counsel did finally commit to going to the US to be deposed, two dozen attorneys booked flights and hotels, only for the witness to pull out at the last minute, apparently under orders from Maduro himself.
    The plaintiffs’ position was further undermined by how poorly news of the litigation was going down in South America. As part of the discovery process, Boies Schiller Flexner was ordered to hand over the agreement letter laying out the 66%-34% split. It was pilloried on Venezuelan state television. On April 24, 2018, the National Assembly, home to what remains of the country’s opposition, published a decree describing the trust as “a mechanism to divert the funds and resources” of Venezuela.
    Ultimately this defense worked, and the judge dismissed Boies’s lawsuit. I love that a famous US lawyer learned of Swiss companies defrauding a Venezuelan company out of billions of dollars, and his natural first reaction was to go to a US federal court to get it to order those companies to give him the money instead. “If a US lawyer notices anyone stealing any money anywhere in the world, that money belongs to him, and a US court will enforce his rights to it” is not 100% wrong as a description of US law, which explains a lot about the extraterritorial application of US law, the hegemony of the dollar system, and the entrepreneurial American legal culture. But it is not 100% right either, and it did not work out for Boies.
    Anyway, elsewhere in euphemisms for bribes, here is the Economist with a helpful collection:
    One approach is to talk about something other than money. Some officials, for example, like to keep citizens well abreast of their food and drink preferences. “I really want to drink a Nescafe,” declares an airport security guard six times as he frisks your correspondent in Burkina Faso. In Uganda traffic police find ways to mention their favourite soda. In South Africa such requests are so common that bribes for driving offences are known as “cold drink money”.
    I guess if you’re a cop at a traffic stop you can’t really ask for a consultancy fee.
    Succession
    I have occasionally tried to understand the capital structure, valuation, corporate governance and shareholder base of Waystar Royco, the Roy family’s publicly traded conglomerate on the TV show Succession, but I quickly find myself frustrated by some contradiction that doesn’t make much sense, and then I remind myself that it’s a TV show and nobody cares about the absolute verisimilitude of its corporate bits. (Who is on the Waystar Royco board? Why are there no independent directors? Who cares!) Anyway at FT Alphaville last week Louis Ashworth gave it a go; he got farther than I ever have but he gave up too, and my advice is that it isn’t worth it.
    Things happen
    SVB’s new owner fights to rebuild brand and stem outflows. Moody’s Downgrades 11 Regional Banks, Including Zions, U.S. Bank, Western Alliance. New Wall Street ‘fear gauge’ to track short-term market swings. The Crypto Detectives Are Cleaning Up. The Impending Fight for Private Equity Buyout Lending. CME plays down rival to LME nickel market. UK Aims to Avoid Repeat of Liz Truss’s Market Mayhem With LDI Reforms. Partner pay at top US law firms hit by dealmaking drought. J&J Consumer-Health IPO Process to Kick Off Key Test for Moribund New-Issue Market. A Schwab Divorce From Bank Could Unlock Value, JPMorgan Says. Gemini’s Plan for Derivatives Exchange Adds to Crypto’s Flight From the US. “The market considers the one-month bill a safe haven. … The three-month is more in the crosshairs.” How Vanuatu allegedly lost its mackerel rights — and fought back. “Afterward we had dinner at Bennigan's; on the menu chalkboard, under Quiche of the Day, Jello [Biafra] scrawled ‘YOU.’”
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    [1] This number comes from the company’s first-day declaration (PDF), Document 10 in the bankruptcy docket.
    [2] A footnote to this sentence in the declaration cites Money Stuff.
    [3] There are also about $1 billion of unsecured bonds outstanding, and talk about nostalgia: They were issued in 2014 to fund a stock buyback, and include about $600 million of *30-year bonds*, due in 2044, with a 5.165% interest rate. They were rated A-/Baa1 when issued. Different times!
    [4] Its closest competition is when Hertz Global Holdings Inc. sold stock to meme-stock investors *in bankruptcy*, which was incredible, but (1) the US Securities and Exchange Commission shut that deal down almost as soon as it launched, so it never raised much money and (2) Hertz was trying to reorganize in bankruptcy, not liquidate; it succeeded and the equity actually recovered, so buying (and, thus, selling) the stock was not *that* crazy. To be clear, that is still a possibility here — “Bed Bath & Beyond has pulled off long shot transactions several times in the last six months, so nobody should think Bed Bath & Beyond will not be able to do so again” — and I will feel dumb and amazed if the people who bought Bed Bath stock on Friday at $0.29 end up making a fortune on the trade.
    [5] This is a little loose, and there are scenarios where some equity owner might put in more money in a bankruptcy-type situation in order to *keep control of the company*. “An equity owner throws in more money and comes out with zero stake in the company" is … less common.
    [6] No, no, it’s still trading; it was at about $0.19 or so at noon today. Really this should say “… and (2) now is even more clearly going to be worthless,” but all hope is not technically lost.
    [7] Bloomberg reports: “‘The idea that you can continually support your company even in the face of constant dilution of your investors just isn’t a long-term, viable corporate-finance strategy,’ said James Gellert, CEO of ratings firm Rapid Ratings. ‘Bed Bath & Beyond had a seeming disregard for common equity holders.’”
    /4 of 4