Market is starting to ignore US-China tariff war - how bad could it get now? Futures are showing that SP500 is near where it ended at the close on Tuesday.

Since 4/4/25, SP500 VIX has been higher that Nasdaq-100 VXN. Typical behavior is VIX < VXN, so add VIX > VXN to some unusual observations.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=$VIX&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=1&amp;dy=0&amp;id=p71823491686

From WSJ brief this morning ...
Intensifying Selloff in U.S. Treasurys Stirs Fears
An aggressive selloff in longer-term U.S. Treasurys overnight sent a worrying sign to markets that almost no asset is safe as President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs go into effect.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked as high as was 4.51%, according to Tradeweb. That was up from around 4.26% in afternoon U.S. trading Tuesday and less than 4% at the end of last week. The yield on the 30-year bond hit nearly 5%.
Yields on both bonds edged off their highs by 5:30 a.m. ET, but remained higher than Tuesday. The dollar also weakened against other major currencies.
Yields, which fall when bond prices rise, initially plunged after Trump announced his new tariffs on April 2, reflecting a flight to safer assets as investors sold riskier assets like stocks.
Longer-term yields, however, reversed course on Monday and took another leg up Tuesday after a $58 billion auction of 3-year notes met with tepid demand from investors.
“Given this big shock, with the tariffs and everything, people are just nervous,” said Thanos Bardas, global co-head of investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.
For bond investors, the sharp rise in yields is uncomfortably similar to a brief selloff that occurred at the depth of the Covid meltdown, when traders sold whatever they could to raise cash.
In this case, analysts and investors say there is broad nervousness about holding longer-term Treasurys ahead of government auctions of 10-year notes on Wednesday and 30-year bonds on Thursday.
One concern of U.S. investors is that overseas private investors or foreign central banks could sell Treasurys in reaction to Trump’s tariffs.
Investors are also worried that tariffs will drive up consumer prices even as they slow U.S. growth.
That has increased the appeal of owning short-term bonds, which could benefit if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, relative to longer-term Treasurys, which are especially vulnerable to inflation.
Once yields started rising this week, the move was accelerated by selling from hedge funds forced to close out various trades that benefited from falling yields, analysts said.

Optimistically, at some point the tariff war will end…either via Congressional action or otherwise.
So….it makes sense to compile a buy-list. It’s funny, over the last year or so I established via Schwab a number of alerts for positions I would really like at prices I’d like to pay.
6 alerts have triggered this week. Now…not to buy RIGHT NOW, but when cooler heads prevail.
Anyone doing the same?

Long before the current mayhem, I'd been researching all sorts of funds and stocks. I landed upon only TWO: BLX and ET. By now, ET has fallen from the heights by quite a bit, making it attractive for me to buy more, under $15.00. As for BLX... Would you believe ? It was UP today, but still down generally along with the Markets. When the first BLX dividend landed in my account since buying, I discovered zero taken preemptively from the published total in foreign tax. That's one reason why it's a keeper.
I'm not a trader. I intend for these to be long-holds. Unless the sky falls down. The major Indices are in Bear Territory. My portfolio is less than half that far down. Still stings.

JR has been a skeptic for a while that the SP500 will continue performing like it has historically. c

Right now futures say tomorrow is going to be another fun day. SP500 -1.9%

Well, far from "blowing up" ... but maybe for them:
Quant hedge fund Renaissance suffers steep losses in tariff tumult

How the regular trading ended on Tuesday.

From +4% to -1.5% ( -5.5% off the high. Not too good either. )

At close: HYD -0.89%, JNK -0.41%, IEF -0.50%, TLT -1.89%, AGG -0.52%.

Not too bad.

Words of wisdom from Josh Brown while the bounce was happening.

Scoring at home: Two dead cat bounces or failed relief rallies on two consecutive days as the country "takes it's medicine."

ntip

i am tempted by some specific equities, as i do not subscribe to index investing.
but there is a better case elsewhere than the s&p500 :
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/invert-always-invert-the-tariff-edition

Howard Mark's on Credit Market and tariffs:
https://youtu.be/KpnUyGM5M-I

If only the buffoon understood (tariff basics and) that China has (paraphrasing AEI's Derek Scissors from 04/07/25) perfected locating and using the entry routes that make US tariffs on China in large part meaningless to them.

Following is a very short current report from The Guardian:
US to go ahead with imposition of 104% tariff on China from Wednesday after Beijing did not lift retaliatory tariffs

The United States will impose a 104% tariff on China from 12:01am ET (12:01pm China Standard Time) on Wednesday, a White House official said after Beijing did not lift its retaliatory tariffs on US goods by a noon Tuesday deadline set by Donald Trump.

I haven't investigated JR's claim for buying on dips.
Perhaps you are referring to the following MW article published on March 7, 2025?
Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research calculated that the “golden era of dip buying”
occurred from the end of the 2008 financial crisis to the late 2021 stock market peak.
Pies and his team developed a checklist with seven criteria to determine whether a dip is "buyable" or not.
"As of Thursday’s close, only three of the seven criteria had been met, Pies said.
Yields have fallen, offering some economic stability. The VIX has remained below 25.
And, most important, Pies and his team don’t expect a recession on the horizon."
“'Clients who followed our guidance to reduce risk earlier in the year should look to add back exposure
over the next couple of months … but not quite yet,' Pies said in a report shared by MarketWatch."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/thinking-of-buying-the-stock-market-dip-heres-what-you-should-know-6e3e74c1

TSLA is (or at least was) DOWN something like 20% since Lutnick's (illegal?) Get Rich Quick proclamation!
https://apnews.com/article/musk-trump-tesla-stock-lutnick-commerce-secretary-ethics-5a89c2f4a68a9470692630b5c56cffd6#:~:text=A week after President Donald,“Buy Tesla.”