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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    For those who want to buy at auctions only, 26-week is every week, while the next 1-yr on 10/4/22, next 2-yr on 9/26/22, next 5-yr TIPS on 10/20/22.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Submitted purchase for 26-week T-Bills (3.811% indicative yield) at tomorrow's auction.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    Check out FARIX much better performance(3 times in the last 3 years) with similar SD.
    See (PV)
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Last time pessimism this low / high Vix 28 low 30s, sp500 w another leg stretches down - were near June bottom and market bounces off +16% until Jackson Hole.... after hrs market Fri premarket show sp500 still dances / rebound toward near 50d MA now. Bigwhales did buy more after marker hrs, I think they are holding for 6 12 months and may think these levels maybe good entries. Momentum maybe shift toward next wk after big sales off and everyone focuses in Fed imploding plans, if 75 basis points may have another rally.
    Hy bonds stocks equities appear near attractive prices again
    Thinking add more techs /transport etf/ growth stocks/ and iwm next wk, these were beaten down very bad
  • Quantitative tightening
    I read Bloomberg article last wk. Worth look at it again, it sounds like QT may have minimal impact to market but to early to tell and no one really knows, first time this ever happens.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-31/federal-reserve-quantitative-tightening-fallout-should-be-limited
    ***Although throughout history there have been a few times when central banks had successfully reduced their balance sheets assets, this is an unusual time. The extraordinarily large reverse repo balance shows the true extent of the extra liquidity in the financial system. So as QT unfolds, it will be important to watch whether the reverse repo balance declines and how fast. The QT numbers appear large, but when compared to the fluctuations from the TGA account and the reverse repos, the scheduled increase is rather tame.****
    Google search incognito if want read whole article
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    @hank
    Good! Makes investing more interesting.
    I think unpredictability is good in sports and works of art, but am less enthused about it for the finances of millions of Americans whose retirements are tied to securities markets. It’s one of the reasons I’m a strong believer in Social Security and don’t think it should ever be tied to the stock market.
    @LewisBraham - I was speaking as 1 individual investor, which I’m sure you realize. Not everyone possesses your depth of knowledge or my keen interest in investing.
    Oh, I agree. It’s absurd that individuals of every education level and walk of life and having vastly disparate incomes during their working years should be expected to manage a retirement portfolio during all their working years and than continue to manage such after retiring. Just nuts. I know well one such individual. Sure didn’t work for him, even with a company match which he did not take full advantage of. That 401-K money was 100% “out the window” after about 3 years into retirement.
    I don’t know what the answer is, but would support better SS or other public initiatives to try and level the playing field..
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Good! Makes investing more interesting. As I noted in another thread, we’re likely already in a recession.
    Happened to hear an interview with David Rubinstein (Carlyle Group) on Bloomberg radio last night. He foresees “maybe another 10%” additional drop in the major indexes. Depending on risk tolerance, he thinks it’s a good time to add risk. Interesting that Rubenstein was willing to go out on a limb like that with the comment, as he’s one of the most conservative / restrained voices on Bloomberg I know of.
    Geez - I was surprised at the reaction to FedX’s announcement. Hadn’t “investors” already figured out with the six months + of recession talk that shippers would take a hit? ISTM they doth protest too much.
    -
    Tacking on some belated thoughts here … A great company like TROW goes “on sale” for only 60% of what it was fetching 9 months ago - and “pessimism grows”. Go figure!
  • Wasatch re-opens six funds
    The “Parent” tab in the link for WGROX that yogi provided shows current year assets for Wasatch at $12.49B with net outflows of $0.70B for 2022. You can get a sense of what each fund’s outflow is just from the M* bar charts. I don’t know for sure, but I believe that the CG tax bill for the SCG funds I have been holding is going to be high for this tax year. Buying a fallen angel this year could result in pain come April 15, 2023.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    About 9% now. For context, the taxable account is at 42% cash, the Roths around 19%. That makes the MMFs the biggest positions if I were to count them as “active.”
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Ty for the heads up
    Not sure what to do now
    - wait w cash /buy more CDs hoping crisis will pass
    -pick solid companies (etfs funds you believe in) w good low Prices/ p.e. keep dca/buy into them (like faang stocks sp500 brkb Costco ev CMG target hd Walmart fdx etc) because they maybe at steep discounts
    - or do nothing /go away keep waiting, don't check on daily basis and maybe wake up in 16 24 months and see your portfolio maybe +10 +20%....
    Not sure what to make if it but Late Fridays especially afternoon and after hr see lots buying actions and indexes close near 50d MA.... Sentiments extremely poor and smart monies-big whales maybe buying again soon since they did possibly oversold past few wks after Jackson Hole. No one really know
    Loosing $$ extremely hard but you probably cannot do anything much. One friend mine computer engineer has brother own hedge funds, that brother been very sad recent last 10 months, his fund bellied up --25% because very high risk tradings/options and leveraged trades/margin call.... But he said keep at it, once market turn (and it will turn) , you may make $$ in 2 -4 yrs... Sit tight...
  • Whoa. Germany. Hydrogen.
    Dated 13th September, '22: Green batteries. Just beginning. Norway, I think. The reporter's first language is obviously not English.
    "Norsk Hydro ASA (OB:NHY) and Altor Fund V AB managed by Altor Equity Partners AB entered into an agreement to acquire 60% from Elkem ASA (OB:ELK) on April 6, 2022. Hydro and Altor Equity Partners each will acquire 30% ownership in Vianode, while Elkem will retain the remaining 40% ownership. An investment decision for a potential first-phase plant for Vianode is expected during the first half of 2022.
    The total investments in the first-phase plant and preparations for a potential full-scale plant are estimated at around NOK 2 billion. The transaction is subject to formal approval by all parties and regulatory approvals, including competition authorities. Norsk Hydro ASA (OB:NHY) and Altor Fund V AB completed the acquisition of Altor Equity Partners AB entered into an agreement to acquire 60% from Elkem ASA (OB:ELK) on September 14, 2022. The transaction is now approved by competition authorities, providing Vianode with significant backing to accelerate the industrialisation of advanced battery materials with a green footprint in Europe
    ."
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Following are excerpts from a New York Times article, heavily edited for brevity:
    A parade of prominent investors and corporate executives have made it clear that they believed the worst was yet to come for the economy and financial markets.
    After hitting a low in June, the S&P 500 had rallied more than 17 percent into mid-August, before losing steam again. The sell-off this week leaves the index just 5.6 percent above the bottom reached in June, after a fall of 0.7 percent on Friday that brought its weekly losses close to 5 percent. The market has only dropped 5 percent in a week three times this year.
    Yet even after the swift decline this week, some of the most powerful trading houses in the world, deploying trillions of dollars on behalf of pension funds, governments and other investors, are warning that there is more pain ahead.
    “If you asked me a year ago, ‘What is the worst scenario for financial markets?’ I think things are now worse than anything we could have imagined,” said the head of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest of its kind. The fund manages money generated by Norway’s extensive oil and gas sales and has $1.4 trillion invested around the world.
    Business leaders, policymakers and ordinary Americans are all grappling with the end of a decade of rock-bottom interest rates that helped propel the economy after the 2008 financial crisis, and a shift to a much-less familiar, once-in-a-generation burst of inflation. Crimped supply chains, the war in Ukraine and an emerging energy crisis are among a host of challenges that add to a level of uncertainty that some investors say they have not seen in decades.
    The drop on Friday came as the stock of logistics giant FedEx cratered more than 21 percent, after it warned that its profit was being hit by weakness in Asia and Europe. FedEx said that it would cut some services, close locations and freeze hiring, becoming the latest in a string of companies that have gone public with their concerns and rattled investor confidence.
    FedEx is seen as an economic bellwether because its package shipping business reflects both business and consumer demand. On Thursday the company’s chief executive predicted a “worldwide recession.”
    General Electric’s chief financial officer also warned of challenges, bemoaning lingering supply chain issues that remain “tough” and “impair our ability to deliver to our customers.”
    Economic worries were also evident in other corners of the financial markets: Corporate debt prices fell and oil prices notched a third straight week of losses.
    Mr. Tangen, of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, said that he did not think there was an investment area anywhere in the world likely to make money in the near future. “That’s the really depressing thing,” he said.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    Here’s a very thorough discussion of BAMBX from last November:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58920/blackrock-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-bambx
    In it fred495 provided a direct link to LB’s Barron’s piece. It works whether you are a subscriber or not. I appreciated that. Reading Barron’s via an Amazon Kindle subscription does not allow me to access Barron’s website directly. So links to past articles don’t get me in the door. Fred’s link did work, however.
    Good article. The managers appear competent at what they do. They are bent on preserving capital - a worthy goal. What I’m trying to determine is the fund’s most recent weighting in long equity positions. Certainly behaves a lot more like a fixed income fund than a balanced, allocation or LS sort.
    Addendum
    Thanks Yogi & Lewis for your input. After more research I intend to keep BAMBX. It represents a small portion (around 15%) of a broader 45% allocation to Alternatives. It’s also the most conservative holding in that mix. To be down only 4-5% in a year when many intermediate bond funds have lost 10% or more is a tribute to the fund. It has dawned on me that there are other avenues I can pursue to ramp up risk exposure which involve buying or selling stocks or ETFs rather than mutual funds. I’m learning after a year with Fido that, when possible, it’s better not to make changes in NTF fund holdings as their 60-day holding period can come back to “bite” you at a later date.
    Regards
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Which company replaced GE in the top ten?
    PerkinElmer (PKI) replaced GE as a top 10 holding.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    This week's episode -

    I had heard about this gentlemen before but never followed him. At the 13 minute mark of the interview, while discussing about the potential for stagflation, he mentioned that we essentially had stagflation during Q1 and Q2 of 2022. After the third revision to Q1 GDP, it was negative 1.6% (real not nominal). We definitely had a decent nominal growth, given the high inflation. I thought stagflation has to have low to no growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. At least one of the elements was clearly missing.
    Any thoughts on this interview and what is stagflation?
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    It's often hard to tell what many alt funds' true risk exposures are because of their derivatives usage so that a relatively tiny position asset wise in a stock futures or options contract can have a dramatic impact on returns. I would recommend going directly to the fund's web site and reading its specific literature to understand better than Yahoo or some other fund tracker site:
    https://blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/fact-sheet/bambx-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-factsheet-us09260c1099-us-en-individual.pdf
    https://blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/product-commentary/oef-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-qtd-commentary.pdf
    https://blackrock.com/us/individual/resources/regulatory-documents/stream-document?stream=reg&product=BR-SMS-AG&shareClass=Class+A&documentId=1699980%7E1699979%7E1704311%7E1865166%7E1912777&iframeUrlOverride=%2Fus%2Findividual%2Fliterature%2Fsemi-annual-report%2Fsar-retail-fixed-income-two-06-30.pdf
    Also: https://barrons.com/articles/a-2-9b-alternative-fund-that-actually-works-51606264740
    My understanding is BAMBX will generally be at least 50% invested in high quality bonds while the remainder will be split between a long-short equity strategy and a macro one that makes country bets.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    I should have added more color to my post. I was not complaining about PRWCX but am looking to add to a moderate allocation fund vs a 100% equity fund, given healthy yields on the fixed income side and my current zero allocation to fixed income. PRWCX is my default MA fund to add to but I prefer to add to a less losing or more gaining fund, depending on whether we are in a general downtrend or uptrend for equities and rates. My other choice is FBALX but that has lost as much as SPY this year. May be I need to start with a screen of MA funds.
    If I would not mind increasing value in my growth biased portfolio, given DODBX’s revised strategy, should that be a consideration? I do not see MA funds mentioned in the buy, sell thread or otherwise discussed as much lately at MFO. Thanks.