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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Be thankful you didn’t retire on 1/1/2022.
    Let’s say one retired on 1/1/2022 with 1m investable in tax deferrred accounts. Not yet doing RMD. Let’s say you had no imagination and did 50% SPY and 50% AGG. Let’s say you reinvested your Divs and withdrew 4% annually. According to Portfolio Visualizer by the end of Feb. 23 you would now be sitting on $827,299. Yuuup. That is the classic SORR. Of course nobody here retired at the start of 2022 and nobody here would invest that way. So let’s all be thankful.
  • Janet Yellen to Reassure Bankers
    These folks are a tough spot on whether to deal with the inflation while facing with the bank mess ant the same time. Clearly something broke. Even with this 25 bps rate hike, the market sold off for 1%. Guess Powell chose inflation over bank crisis. Will watch Powell speech this evening. Tomorrow will be interesting.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Multiply you guys x 10 to the umpteenth and you got Silicon Valley Bank.
  • Fed Watch

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve extended its year-long fight against high inflation Wednesday by raising its key interest rate by a quarter-point despite concerns that higher borrowing rates could worsen the turmoil that has gripped the banking system.
    “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient,” the Fed said in a statement after its latest policy meeting ended. At the same time, the Fed warned that the financial upheaval stemming from the collapse of two major banks is “likely to result in tighter credit conditions” and “weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.”
    The central bank also signaled that it’s likely nearing the end of its aggressive streak of rate hikes. In its statement, it removed language that had previously said it would keep raising rates at upcoming meetings. The statement now says “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” — a weaker commitment to future hikes.
    The Fed included some language that indicated its inflation fight remains far from complete. It noted that hiring is “running at a robust pace” and “inflation remains elevated.” It removed a phrase, “inflation has eased somewhat,” that it had included in its statement in February.
    Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell said, “The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.”
    The latest rate hike suggests that Powell is confident that the Fed can manage a dual challenge: Cool still-high inflation through higher loan rates while defusing turmoil in the banking sector through emergency lending programs and the Biden administration’s decision to cover uninsured deposits at the two failed banks.
    The central bank’s benchmark short-term rate has now reached its highest level in 16 years. The new level will likely lead to higher costs for many loans, from mortgages and auto purchases to credit cards and corporate borrowing. The succession of Fed rate hikes have also heightened the risk of a recession.
    The troubles that suddenly erupted in the banking sector two weeks ago likely led to the Fed’s decision to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter-point rather than a half-point. Some economists have cautioned that even a modest quarter-point rise in the Fed’s key rate, on top of its previous hikes, could imperil weaker banks whose nervous customers may decide to withdraw significant deposits.
    The above was excerpted from a current Associated Press article, and has been edited for brevity.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I would say all bonds and bond funds are affected by duration, but if you hold an individual bond to maturity you don't notice it. If you choose to sell that 5-year TIPS in a rising rate environment prior to maturity, you would realize losses from the duration impact. As for taxes, my impression is the treatment and phantom-income like tax adjustments is the same for individual TIPS as for TIPS funds. You pay taxes on the inflation adjustment with an individual bond even though you don't receive it as income:
    https://cpapracticeadvisor.com/2022/04/07/the-tax-tips-about-tips-treasury-inflation-protection-securities/49016/
    This is why the TIPS funds pay out the inflation adjustments because they are a taxable event and treated by the IRS as income. If anything, I'd rather have the payout in hand from the funds to help pay the taxes. Interestingly, the same is not true for I Savings bonds. The income is completely deferred tax wise.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    If the objective is to keep up with inflation, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity will do that. Longer-term TIPS will too, but it may be harder to hold them maturity. TIPS funds on the other hand are affected by duration and non-maturity; they are also required to distribute inflation-adjustment annually, whether earned or not, inflows or not.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=$$CPI,TIP&id=p91391514086
  • Sell all bond funds?
    If you look at a fund's average duration, theoretically for every 1 year of duration, the fund should fall one percentage point for every one percentage point increase in interest rates. So, if a fund has a duration of six years, and rates rise from 0% to 4%, the fund's bond portfolio should fall 24%, maybe 20% overall if you factor in the yield. I think most people just aren't used to a rising rate environment. Bond investors have just had it good for so long, they didn't realize the risks. I would add that if the Fed had raised rates more gradually, funds would've had more time to adapt to the new environment, but Fed Chair Powell wanted to send consumers and labor a message by raising rates quickly and aggressively: "I'll teach you not to ask for higher wages and buy stuff!" Now imagine you're a certain California bank making highly leveraged bets on the same bonds in your fund portfolios you thought were safe.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I tend to agree with Tarwheel in that I am astonished how poorly "go anywhere" bond funds have done recently. It seems obvious that once the Fed started raising rates and inflation was high any duration over 1 or 2 was going to kill your NAV. I have a hard time buying funds that are committed, by their prospectus or "mandate" to do things that seem a bad idea
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Who knows? Not the sharpest knife in the bond deck here. But I have a lot more bonds (thru funds) than cash. If short or intermediate duration bonds, they may possibly do better than cash over time without a whole lot of duration risk. Don’t overlook some capital appreciation if rates fall. Bonds / bond funds do move around in value day to day, so having some might temper portfolio volatility more than cash would if striving for balance. But it’s a close call.
    I like global bonds as a hedge against a falling dollar. I’ve been moving my small bit of cash in and out of a GNMA etf, buying in at near 4% on the 10 year and unloading them when the 10-year nears 3.5%. So I’m currently out with the 10 year around 3.6%. That game will work until it doesn’t. Likely, interest rates are headed higher over the long term - which would kill that goose.
    There’s no certainty any of the above will work out as planned. I usually operate differently than most here. So realize cash has been the “flavor of the month” for quite a few months now. The rates are currently attractive. Do I want to tear apart a balanced portfolio to throw a bunch into cash? No.
    (PS - I don’t do TIPS. Others can debate the merits. I notice some added commentary below.)
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Not a bad strategy, but it’s a mistake to compare past performance to future expectations as in “I don’t own a single bond fund that can come close to that over the past five years and only one that tops that over 10 years.” It’s the next five- and ten-years that matter, not the last ten. Moreover, if you had held a CD 10 years ago until today, you wouldn’t have received 5.34% annualized either, closer to zero I bet as much of that period rates were considerably lower. So, you must look at the forward yield and credit quality of bonds today and compare them to the forward yield and credit quality of CDs with comparable maturities. I also think the fact that the CDs you mentioned are callable is problematic. If rates go lower, your yield disappears.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    @day1queen Your email address and your name do not match up with the name that you provided me. This is a private board and we take security seriously since we have all be victims of a crime. Right now, I do not feel comfortable granting you access. Teresa
  • T. Rowe Price New Horizons and Emerging Markets Stock Funds reopening to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80248/000174177323000918/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund
    T. Rowe Price Institutional Emerging Markets Equity Fund
    Supplement to Prospectuses and Summary Prospectuses dated March 1, 2023
    T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated May 1, 2022
    Effective April 26, 2023, the funds will resume accepting new accounts and purchases from most investors who invest directly with T. Rowe Price.
    Accordingly, effective April 26, 2023, the first sentence under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” in each summary prospectus and section 1 of each prospectus is deleted in its entirety. In addition, the section entitled “Closed to New Investors” in Section 2 of the prospectus is deleted in its entirety.
    The date of this supplement is March 22, 2023.
    G44-041 3/22/23
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I realize that bond fund returns go up and down, but their abysmal long-term returns after the past year or so are astonishing. With CD yields so high right now, why not just ditch bond funds and put all the money in CDs? I can construct a 5-year CD ladder at Fidelity with every issue exceeding 5% and an overall yield of 5.34%. Jeez … I don’t own a single bond fund that can come close to that over the past five years and only one that tops that over 10 years. How many years would it take my bond funds to earn as much as this simple CD ladder? Answer: a lot.
    The only fly in the ointment is that few of the higher yielding CDs are call-protected, so if yields drop a lot, I suspect that many of these banks will be calling in their CDs.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    MSF - I really appreciate the effort you put into this analysis! I'm 75, widowed, good health (so far), earning $60K (after 401-K contribution) from working part-time (which I plan to continue). Most of my income is from investments, pension, and SS. True retirement would probably drop me into the 32% federal tax bracket. Thanks for your insight!
  • Vanguard Said to Shutter Business in China, Exit Ant Venture
    AS reported in Barron's this week (my summary below, LINK), JPM is going into China,
    "Mary ERDOES, JPM. RISK management in banking is essential. 3 recent bank failures (Silvergate, SVB, Signature) were partly from weaknesses in risk controls. The banking system as a whole is in much better shape now than during the GFC 2008-09 – the loan/deposit ratios are low; the capital ratios are high. There is much higher regulatory scrutiny for the systemically important banks (SIBs) than for smaller banks and may be new regulations can address that. Chances for US RECESSION are high (65%) and JPM is prepared; some sectors of the economy such as housing may be in recession already. FED’s path to +2% average inflation won’t be easy or smooth. After the disaster last year, the 60-40 portfolios look attractive for these volatile markets. ALTERNATIVE investments are fine for those who can take higher risks, but don’t overdo those as some university endowments have done. DIVERSIFICATION is useful but keep in mind that diversified mixes evolve; problems arise when investors get stuck on some fixed diversification mixes. HOME-COUNTRY biases are strong in the US but are everywhere. The ESG is in flux, and it is important to provide the asset managers the leeway on ESG. JPM is using AI for security and fraud prevention.
    CHINA is challenging but important; even if you are not in China, it will affect your investments. After 100+ years in China, and lots of efforts there, JPM can now own 100% of its joint-ventures and it has big expansion plans targeted for the Chinese population. But JPM stays away from the politics of the US-China relations. JPM sent a delegation to UKRAINE in February because JPM is #1 debt issuer for Ukraine; it gave Ukraine 2-yr payment deferrals after the war started; it will also be involved heavily in post-war reconstruction and redevelopment (and some thought that JPM was pulling a stunt with its Ukraine trip)."
  • Regional Banks Spreadsheet and BHB
    Appreciate the work. @Old_Joe. @sma3. @yogibearbull.
    You reference page 13. But I can see no page numbers anywhere. So, I'll take your word for it. :)
    11.13% of deposits uninsured by FDIC. Sounds palatable, especially these days, in the current hot mess we are in, eh? I smell a BUY in the air.... ;)
  • Vanguard Said to Shutter Business in China, Exit Ant Venture
    Excerpt from Bloomberg,
    A complete retreat would follow Vanguard’s surprise move two years ago to scrap plans for a mutual-fund management license in China to focus on the BangNiTou tie-up with Ant that was launched in 2020.
    Fidelity and Neuberger Berman Group have recently joined BlackRock in launching onshore funds through new wholly-owned units, while Manulife Financial Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley have gained approvals to buy out local partners to gain full control of existing ventures.
    The race for fund advisory is heating up with more players coming in, hurting profitability. Vanguard’s venture, which has been offering only products from competitors, booked a loss in 2021 that was much higher than an internal forecast made after it was set up in 2019, Bloomberg reported last year. Vanguard owns 49% of it.
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/vanguard-plans-to-shutter-business-in-china-exit-ant-jv?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify%20wall
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    There are too many variables and possibilities for me to write up a complete description let alone an analysis right now. Difference in tax rates post-retirement, number of years until retirement (at which point you should switch to IRA since the 401(k) then offers no more deferral of RMDs), number of anticipated years of life (not IRS tables), type of beneficiary (spouse or other), expected rate of return (and variability of returns).
    Broad picture - the more your tax rates drop in retirement the better off you are in keeping the money in the 401(k), since that will avoid RMDs until they're taxed at the lower rates. That tax savings can more than compensate for the extra fees in the meantime.
    If there's no change in rates, the picture changes. Each year you pay $8K in taxes using the IRA, meaning you have $8K less earning returns. Keep the $500K in the 401(k) and you have $4800 less due to fees that can earn returns. So you've got about $3.2K more with the 401(k) sitting there earning returns.
    But while the $4800 loss to fees in the 401(k) is permanent, the loss of an extra $8K in taxes with the IRA is temporary. Keeping the money in the 401(k), sooner or later, you'd still withdraw the $20K, post-retirement, and pay the $8K in taxes then.
    I don't have the time right now to delve more deeply into this. Gut feeling is that a sizeable post-retirement reduction in tax rates would justify keeping the money in the 401(k). Otherwise, moving the money to the IRA may come out better.