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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Today was a 92% up-volume day.
    Others:
    90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
    90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
    These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
    https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/1557462958745190401
    I much prefer Marty Zweig’s double 9 to 1 up volume indicator within three months albeit a bit similar to Deemer’s and Lowry Research. Zweig divides up volume by down volume. Today was an impressive and rare 12 to 1. But his indicator already went on a buy on July 19 signaling the end of the bear. His indicator has kicked in at every bear market bottom with the only failure I believe in 2008. I have talked about this ad nauseam but no one ever listens. At bear market bottoms there are always 1001 reasons not to be bullish. Usually his indicator kicks in much closer to the actual bottom than this time around.
    Of course Zweig was also known as much as anyone about how not to fight the Fed as well as follow the trend, This is one of the rare times I can recall his two mantras are in direct conflict with his double 9 to 1 indicator kicking in amid an ever tightening Fed. Then again, it kicked in late 2018/early2019 amid a Fed that had been tightening and that signal was spot on.
    Edit: We had an 8.5 to one up day on July 1 and that was close enough to a 9 to 1 to convince many of those who religiously follow Zweig’s indicator,
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Yes, from a low point at -18%. our stuff is now down by -10%. That's -10% down from an ALL-TIME HIGH at the start of the year. And there have been changes in the portfolio. In one case, I dumped what had become a very big pile of smelly doggy poopies: ENIC. It was difficult to swallow THAT loss. But I learned a lesson, and so I did not wait so long to dump RGR after the Earnings miss just recently reported. After the numbers were published, the stock has been taking a beating. And the political climate makes RGR a member of the un-loved.
    PSTL is my new holding, bought with proceeds from the RGR sale. It was down today, but finished up from the price where I bought it. Nice. I plan on holding it for the dividends. The Post Office pays its bills.
    WHERE TO, FROM HERE? Maybe Tech will shine again, after the new legislation? With Fall and Winter coming, I do hope my midstream stock, ET, will do well. (Remember the war?) The economy is based upon Consumerism. That's not a good thing, ethically and morally. But the economy has no conscience, nor do the markets. I believe the Consumer will continue to over-spend and live day by day with credit card debt, just getting by. Wages are higher = more money will get spent. That's 66-70% of the Economy, right there.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Today was a 92% up-volume day.
    Others:
    90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
    90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
    These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
    https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/1557462958745190401
  • Clean/renewable etf's. Are you there now or considering investing
    @Derf
    I heard via TV that Ford raised the price of their EV truck up over $8K !
    Not enjoying that ride, Derf
    Added: If you like green,
    take a look at Mr. Market
    This is why people need to look at which sectors the "green" etf is sampling.
    Ford may be charging more for a consumer durable. OTOH, they just signed a big deal with DTE Energy that will result in 650 MW of new solar energy generation in Michigan by 2025.
    https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2022/08/10/ford-dtes-solar-deal-help-automaker-go-carbon-free-michigan/10282086002/
  • Clean/renewable etf's. Are you there now or considering investing
    Every fund/ETF company is jumping on the "Climate Change " bandwagon, but I think there is a good case to make for active management here, as the technology is rapidly changing and sophisticated engineers and mangers can add a lot of value by knowing what may work and may not. Most ETFs are based on "indexes" that in some cases, the companies create themselves, hardly active management. GM and Ford may well be the ultimate winners of the electric vehicle race, but neither are in most "Green" ETFs based on these indices, only TSLA.
    I ( or my kids IRAs) have had positions in TAN LIT PBD PHO ( water) and FCX ( Copper) for years. My son wanted only clean energy and "green" investments so even with the recent "swoon" some of his ETFs are up 250% in the last eight years since we started his accounts.
    I recently spent a fair amount of time looking for actively managed funds in "climate change" and found several interesting ideas. It is hard to search for "climate Change" as it is not a fund category that I am aware of, but M* classifies most funds as " natural resources" and you can skim their names pretty quickly. Another way is to look for concentrated positions in some of the usual companies, or other funds that hold significant positions in common with some of the bigger inaccessible funds like GCCHX.
    Most funds are only recently organized, but NALFX has a long track record. GMOs Climate Change Fund GCCHX has been in business since 2017 and provides a good comparison, although it has a $5,000,000 minimum. ( Interestingly NALFX beats it with a bit more volatility).
    Most are less than a year old.
    I nibbled also at RKCIX ( Rockefeller management trying to make up for JD's sins), and GCEBX ( has a bit of an income focus so is less volatile) and NETZ (an ETF run by "Engine no 1, the group that forced XOM to the climate change table).
    Other things to think about are materials that will go up in price as demand increases like rare earths (REMX) and "Green minerals" ( GMET). Huge quantities of Cobalt, etc will be needed to transition to carbon neutral. Carbon credits are another idea (KRBN), as is timberland ( hard to find for individuals)
    I was thinking of putting this together in a Commentary piece, but my skills are limited to typing so I dumped a lot of these ideas into just a word document.
  • Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
    I eat A LOT of chicken, and have noticed a rise in price. I buy mine at the West Side Market in Cleveland, which tend to be from more local suppliers. Last time I bought a roaster it was about $15...2 or 3 dollars more than a year ago. If I'm buying thighs for the grill, they're really about the same, even at the local market.
    Sweet corn prices?!? Oh my...
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Right or wrong I bail on new positions if they hit an 7-8% loss. It's benefitted my bottom line a bunch. It tells me that I took those positions too early, that I need to have more patience and/or that I don't have a full understanding of the equity of interest …
    @Mark. I’ll withdraw / modify my prior advice. Glad selling for a loss works for you. Realize some sophisticated investors use “stop loss orders” in buying / trading. Beyond my experience level or inclination. But certainly a respected approach.
    Yes, I have sold speculative holdings that gained briefly and than reversed direction. Maybe for a percent or two loss. But if you’re gonna jump ship at 15% down … you’re going to have to gain back 16 or 17% elsewhere just to recoup that kind of loss. I’d say take the loss if you seriously misjudged the security. But if confident in your original analysis, stick with it. I’ll confess to buying a few shares of KKR last spring. But bailed in a day or two for a small loss when I realized it was way too aggressive / volatile an investment for me. Had clearly made some major mistakes in my initial analysis and assumptions. Stuff happens.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    @hank - who said "Some would bail after a quick 15% loss - a sure way to the poor house." Right or wrong I bail on new positions if they hit an 7-8% loss. It's benefitted my bottom line a bunch. It tells me that I took those positions too early, that I need to have more patience and/or that I don't have a full understanding of the equity of interest, Ergo back to the drawing board and the research data. MDT was my most recent blunder.
  • Clean/renewable etf's. Are you there now or considering investing
    No question in my mind that lithium (LAC, in my case) may be supplanted by a more environmentally friendly product.
    Here's one, for utility-scale storage, based on iron-flow technology, that will also be much cheaper than lithium.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    A good rally from mid-June lows, whatever it is called - Bear-rally or new up-move. It has now reached the target area that many had for this bounce. Very strong day today. Strange that people are cheering CPI of +8.5% (President erroneously said no inflation when he meant no change in inflation). Where to now?
    Major Indexes since 1/3/22 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p07001467085
    SPX/SP500 TA https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p54837283928
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    What a move!
    Umm … I track lots of things just for fun. +15% over a short period is a nice gain. Not uncommon in today’s volatile markets. Capture an quick gain like that and reinvest it back into your (more conservative) overall portfolio. Helps the bottom line over time. But it can move either way on you. Some would bail after a quick 15% loss - a sure way to the poor house.
    Nice going @carew388.
    With TRP, all the brokerages / asset managers had become dirt cheap earlier in the year. Investors in TROW and the others must now believe folks will start moving back into the markets now that they’ve risen significantly. Ironic in a sense.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    I'm up 9.2% since my first purchase on 6/21/22. I own 3 shares-now wish I had bought 30 !
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    I may have called the bottom on this one. TROW has steadily risen from around $113 a month ago to $130.50 now. Up 4.70% today alone and a total gain over 15% since I mentioned it.
    No, I didn’t buy it. Hope someone else did
    @Derf says “You can’t win them all.” .
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/3/22
    This may go along nicely with this thread:
    The Bull-Bear Spread also rebounded faster than prices after the Covid Crash low, and after the 2018 selloff. So this sentiment change might just be a normal reaction to the start of a new bull market. Or it might instead be an overreaction in terms of analyst sentiment which is not merited, leaving “the crowd” subject to a shocking reversal of fortunes if prices fail to follow through.
    sentiment_rebounding_too_much
  • Morningstar Devolution
    @WABAC: I agree with you on water. I have a decent amount in FIW, and I have stuck with it despite drops since late 2021. The fund holds companies whose business extends beyond water per se, but I think they are solid industrial companies. Lots of good companies’ stocks have been gored for no good reason other than a bad market environment. I’m hoping that quality will rise to the surface and receive investors’ (i.e., stock pickers’) attention. I also have a position in GFLOX which holds water-related businesses.
    GLFOX? Love the dividends.
    Our Water Works basket include PIO, FIW, and CGW.
  • Clean/renewable etf's. Are you there now or considering investing
    The below link to etf.com has several data sets, including their list of 19 (scroll down the page). The table data is set by AUM, but may be sorted by selecting 3 month return, etc.
    Aside from a particular area (solar, wind, water...whatever) We consider AUM to be of importance, as some of the eft's have very low AUM. Being able to trade these etf's may be thin for low AUM issues, and/or have larger spreads.
    We purchased a small amount of TAN (solar) when Putin decided to play war in Ukraine.
    Any of these sectors may have their own problems for profit; being the whims of the markets, supply chain, legislation and monetary support from countries and also that; share buys/sells and/or options trading by large investment houses (hedge funds, etc.) may affect performance.
    For us, less than a 5% position doesn't add enough meaningful value to the overall portfolio. This doesn't mean an immediate 5% + buy, but to obtain this point within a short time frame via "dollar cost averaging". Generally, we buy or sell in a least 5% positions. The mind set being; that we feel comfortable with this choice........OR one should likely not consider the transaction at all.
    As to TAN in particular, this etf has held up well in 2022, considering the performance damage done in many areas of the overall markets.
    Have you investments in this area? What do you like or are watching???
    Note: there may be other choices not on the short list in the link.
    19 renewable clean energy etf list
    Thank you for your input.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Your buy - sells July forward
    Tonight: 08 August, 2022: a toehold Limit Order into QAT at $20.99, which is -8.7 less than where it stands overnight, at $23.01. Who knows how long THAT will take to fill? I'm in no hurry, though. Why? Qatar is a rising market. This order to buy shares is like a "precision strike," rather than to depend only upon my TRAMX, which has been INCHING upward recently. Time will tell, as ever.
    ***Edited to add: QAT is moving too far, too fast for me. Winning the race, going away. Canceled Limit order. Instead, bought a Postal REIT on a Market Order today. Pleased with the entry price: $16.315. (yes. TRP brokerage.). PSTL.
  • Matthews Asia - New CEO
    I remember that missed MAPIX quarterly in 12/2014 and I explained it to others at M* at the time (-:). It was due to the weird US PFIC tax consideration that required mark-to-market (or, flow-through-earnings) of some foreign property and hard asset holdings. MAPIX held some property co then and its distributions are lumpy because of this PFIC (for the US investors).
    It is the same issue that the US investors face with many Canadian natural-resources funds or European income funds. Unrelated, but Warren Buffett has a similar accounting problem with his Q2 this time in that the accounting rules require mark-to-market for BRK stock portfolio.
    So, the investors should know about PFIC and mark-to-market accounting.
    Anyway, that call was poorly handled by Matthews.
  • Howard Marks memo: "I Beg to Differ"
    Yes, a thoughtful opine by LB. I’m under the impression fees have been falling for individual investors, however, for years. (Doesn’t negate Lewis’ point.) I recall at work in the early 70s the original 2 options in our 403-B were either to invest in an expensive annuity or buy from a sole rep (advisor) selling Templeton products. He promised a great deal at a group discount having a “low” 4.17% front load. (Actually they began charging me a 7% load until I did the math and called them on it.) But in general, the front load was much more prevalent during the earlier days.
    I’m for low fees if it doesn’t impact the provider’s quality of research and management - or service. Brings up a related question: Is the notable deterioration in TRP’s customer service (and some others as well) at least partially a consequence of progressive fee cutting over the past 3 or 4 decades? I suspect not since their AUM has also multiplied by several factors. Yet, one is left with only a shred of the service we’d come to expect from years past.
    Yes, I understand LB’s point that there has been one fee structure for the monied class and a different one for individuals. I’m not grieving for the providers either. Like Twain, however, rumors of their death may prove premature.